Jump to content

2021 World Juniors


DON

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Would Mike Bossy have gotten the he same shot in today’s NHL, under a Juilen or Torts type coach?  I doubt it!

 

How does that have anything to do with a discussion of a young players' hockey potential ?

 

Don't think anyone was discussing whether CC would/could/should make the NHL/Habs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Elias Petterson lit the league up as a 20 year old 6’0 160 pound kid. It’s not unprecedented. Gretzky would find his way into a top 6 and first wave powerplay within no timeouts think, 

 

To chime in on the Caufield talk, I have to say my expectations have been tempered. That said, I agree with him seeming to be snake bitten during the tourney, and I did like the flashes I saw. Still holding hope for him to become a 30+ scorer 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting off a lot of shots is a better predictor of future goal scoring success, than scoring a lot of goals on few shots. 

 

Goal scorers shoot.  There is a reason Ovechkin leads the NHL in shots every year. 

 

High volumes of shots are needed for consistent high volumes of goals. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

To chime in on the Caufield talk, I have to say my expectations have been tempered. That said, I agree with him seeming to be snake bitten during the tourney, and I did like the flashes I saw. Still holding hope for him to become a 30+ scorer 

 

I feel the same way.  I'm more comfortable with a 30something goalscorer projection than I would be with a 40something goal scorer projection for Caufield's ceiling at this point.  I need to see a higher finish rate from him against tough competition to regain a gushing level of optimism.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finish rate over a 7 game sample means nothing.  (Dont forget if we include the exhibition game he scored two on russia too).

 

He got plenty of shots.  In college against better and more experienced goalies he scores at a high rate.

 

Im not one bit worried about Caufield.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Commandant said:

In college against better and more experienced goalies he scores at a high rate.

 

I've been looking into your theory of college goalies are better.  Honestly, there's not much out there about it.  I did find 1 and I posted a link below on a study of the goalies drafted between 2000-2010 and where they ended up.  I understand this is a snapshot period and doesn't encompass everything, but it's the best I could find.  To pluck numbers out of the article, out of the goalies that were drafted and played at least 1 NHL game, 16 clear starters came via pro hockey, 3 via college hockey.  On average the pro hockey goalies(97) played more NHL games than college goalies(57).  Pro goalies took less time from their first NHL game to become a start, 4 years for pro vs 7 for college. Only 23 of the 104 goalies that played 1 game in the NHL were college goalies. 

 

Nearly all goalies in the WJC were from the OHL or a pro-league in or around their country, with the exception of 2-3, biggest exception being Knight from the USA. 

 

With all of this I would reiterate, Caufield faced better goalies in the WJC because college goalies aren't better.

 

https://www.rawcharge.com/2013/8/26/4657570/normal-goaltender-development-pt-2-juniors-vs-ncaa-vs-professional

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

With all of this I would reiterate, Caufield faced better goalies in the WJC because college goalies aren't better.

In NCAA you could have to play vs 22yr old goalie & d-men, mature & experienced, unlike vs high school kids in junior.:spamafote:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, DON said:

In NCAA you could have to play vs 22yr old goalie & d-men, mature & experienced, unlike vs high school kids in junior.:spamafote:

 

Older does not mean better, David Ayers isn’t better than Thatcher Demko, ironically enough one of the few goalies to take the college route to the NHL.  Only 2 of the top 10 NCAA goalies are drafted, unless the NCAA statistics website is missing information.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

I've been looking into your theory of college goalies are better.  Honestly, there's not much out there about it.  I did find 1 and I posted a link below on a study of the goalies drafted between 2000-2010 and where they ended up.  I understand this is a snapshot period and doesn't encompass everything, but it's the best I could find.  To pluck numbers out of the article, out of the goalies that were drafted and played at least 1 NHL game, 16 clear starters came via pro hockey, 3 via college hockey.  On average the pro hockey goalies(97) played more NHL games than college goalies(57).  Pro goalies took less time from their first NHL game to become a start, 4 years for pro vs 7 for college. Only 23 of the 104 goalies that played 1 game in the NHL were college goalies. 

 

Nearly all goalies in the WJC were from the OHL or a pro-league in or around their country, with the exception of 2-3, biggest exception being Knight from the USA. 

 

With all of this I would reiterate, Caufield faced better goalies in the WJC because college goalies aren't better.

 

https://www.rawcharge.com/2013/8/26/4657570/normal-goaltender-development-pt-2-juniors-vs-ncaa-vs-professional

 

Its not about where they ended up.  Its who is better now. 

 

The 18 year old goalie can become a better goalie.  That doesn't mean he's better than the 22 year old right now. 

 

The top 18-19 year olds may have higher upside, it doesn't mean that they are outperforming the seniors in college right now. 

There is a reason that Seniors do better than Freshmen generally in college. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

Older does not mean better, David Ayers isn’t better than Thatcher Demko, ironically enough one of the few goalies to take the college route to the NHL.  Only 2 of the top 10 NCAA goalies are drafted, unless the NCAA statistics website is missing information.  

 

At 22 vs 18... it does mean better.... at 28 vs 24, it might not... but at these ages it generally does.  Hence why CIS players who are going nowhere beat Canada's team in tryout camps where players are trying to impress coaches.  The CIS players might not make the NHL, but are fully developped men, bigger stronger faster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

At 22 vs 18... it does mean better.... at 28 vs 24, it might not... but at these ages it generally does.  Hence why CIS players who are going nowhere beat Canada's team in tryout camps where players are trying to impress coaches.  The CIS players might not make the NHL, but are fully developped men, bigger stronger faster.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/overall-goalie.php

 

Goalie stats from the NCAA.  Go to whatever year you want, or them all if you want.  Sort by any and all criteria you want.  There's a column showing whether the goalie is a freshman, sophomore and seniors.  Pay attention to that column because as you sort you'll notice the is ZERO correlation between statistics and their age.  There's a mixed bag of freshman, sophomores and seniors no matter how you sort it, unless your sort it by year.  There is nothing at all supporting your claim "At 22 vs 18... it does mean better." 

 

I respect your opinion, it's one of the reasons I actually took the time to look into it.  Unfortunately it's just wrong in this case.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So you have the best freshmen (aka guys like Knight) performing  the same as seniors.

 

And you dont think that the college goalies are better than WJ ones?

 

Yes there is knight and askarov at the WJC. But there is also a lot lesser prospects from other teams.

 

In college, if the school doesnt have  a spencer knight, they have a damn good 22-24 year old.

 

Watching college hockey for many years you arent going to convince me that the goalies in an under 20 tourney are better OVERALL than in college hockey with older goalies.

 

Just watch college games.  You will see it.  It's obvious that at every position being more mature and experienced and bigger and stronger is an advantage.

 

Just like overagers (20) in the chl can put up huge points and be ahl journeymen in their career... but the 16 an 17 year olds they dominated eventually become better prospects.  The age matters at that point.  It matters a lot.

 

There is no way that the WJC is harder than high end College Hockey.  Its not.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...