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2021 NHL General Discussion


hab29RETIRED

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21 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Not now but at the draft or in the off season i would trade them all hopefully Seattle can take Byron off our hands at the expansion draft. But it time to cut the dead weight with our forward group. 

 

If you're talking about the offseason, Armia likely walks as a UFA, Danault may not be re-signed, and I think Lehkonen would be a non-tender candidate based on the year he's having which would his value at that time basically non-existent.  There may very well be a change in that group but the returns will almost certainly be zero although they'll have some cap room to try to replace them with.

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8 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Based on stats alone, Foligno clearly is on a big downward slide. The Staal analogy seems apt. Not sure this is a big an acquisition as the buzz suggests.

 

He doesn't need to score many points to fit in with them.  If they put him with Tavares and Nylander, he can be the defensive presence and do the dirty work around the boards to complement those two.  Toronto really only has one of those in their top-nine in Zach Hyman who fits in great with Matthews and Marner for that reason.  Now both of their high-skill lines can have that presence.  He's not a high-end scorer but he's a great complementary fit.

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14 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

... There is no trade the Habs can make that can put them on equal footing with the Leafs so the Habs might as well keep their picks and prospects and go into the playoffs as a big underdog. Maybe they can have some fun with that as all the pressure will be on the Leafs. Maybe Carey can steal a series. 

Problem is I remain unconvinced MB can afford a first round exit ... 21/22 is the last year of his contract and I for one don't want a lame duck GM planning next season ... nor do I want MB getting an extension at this point ... I think he NEEDS a strong showing in the playoffs

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15 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Problem is I remain unconvinced MB can afford a first round exit ... 21/22 is the last year of his contract and I for one don't want a lame duck GM planning next season ... nor do I want MB getting an extension at this point ... I think he NEEDS a strong showing in the playoffs

 

It’s a good question, what Molson’s expectations are. I still think this team has it within itself to put together a really strong playoff round and be a tough out. Let’s say we’re eliminated in 6-7 really close, hard-fought games. Does Molson really fire Bergevin at that point, especially if whomever beats us goes on to have a deep playoff run? Or does he look at it and say, “hmmm, we’re pretty close, let MB finish the job?”

 

If we fall in 4-5 games and don’t look particularly strong, then I could see MB being on the block; and if we don’t make the playoffs, then frankly I expect MB to be fired. And if Waite’s comments were accurate, so does MB. 

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16 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

He doesn't need to score many points to fit in with them.  If they put him with Tavares and Nylander, he can be the defensive presence and do the dirty work around the boards to complement those two.  Toronto really only has one of those in their top-nine in Zach Hyman who fits in great with Matthews and Marner for that reason.  Now both of their high-skill lines can have that presence.  He's not a high-end scorer but he's a great complementary fit.

 

Good analysis, thanks

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27 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Problem is I remain unconvinced MB can afford a first round exit ... 21/22 is the last year of his contract and I for one don't want a lame duck GM planning next season ... nor do I want MB getting an extension at this point ... I think he NEEDS a strong showing in the playoffs

 

Whether he has one year left or not I think is irrelevant as GM's can get fired at any time. I think what Molson wants to see is progress and laying a foundation so the Habs are competitive year after year.  Having a strong team is likely more important next year as fans will be going to the game (hopefully) and buying beer etc.  We will know soon enough what approach MB is taking for this year. The Leafs are awfully deep up front now with a lot of skill, experience and grit. 

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

If you're talking about the offseason, Armia likely walks as a UFA, Danault may not be re-signed, and I think Lehkonen would be a non-tender candidate based on the year he's having which would his value at that time basically non-existent.  There may very well be a change in that group but the returns will almost certainly be zero although they'll have some cap room to try to replace them with.

How is the qualifying offer calculated? Because I assume that's the key here. If the qualifying offer is reasonable, he could have value in staying -- or value in a trade. But if it's too high in the flat-cap universe ...

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2 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

How is the qualifying offer calculated? Because I assume that's the key here. If the qualifying offer is reasonable, he could have value in staying -- or value in a trade. But if it's too high in the flat-cap universe ...

With Bergevin's track record on trade deadline day he never makes any big trades. I think the only one would be the vanek trade in his first year.  So any moves will be at draft or after. 

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8 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

How is the qualifying offer calculated? Because I assume that's the key here. If the qualifying offer is reasonable, he could have value in staying -- or value in a trade. But if it's too high in the flat-cap universe ...

Isn’t it a 10 or 15% increase?

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2 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Isn’t it a 10 or 15% increase?

 

If the salary is $1M or less, it's a 5% increase.  Anything over $1M makes the qualifying offer the salary excluding any signing bonus.

 

10 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

How is the qualifying offer calculated? Because I assume that's the key here. If the qualifying offer is reasonable, he could have value in staying -- or value in a trade. But if it's too high in the flat-cap universe ...


Lehkonen's deal had a $200,000 signing bonus this year, I suspect to lower the QO a bit.  As a result, while his cap hit is $2.4M, his QO is $2.2M.

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1 minute ago, dlbalr said:

Lehkonen's deal had a $200,000 signing bonus this year, I suspect to lower the QO a bit.  As a result, while his cap hit is $2.4M, his QO is $2.2M.

Thanks. And the team can also request arbitration, right? So it might be possible to get an arbitration decision around $2M. At that price, I should think he would have some trade value. Or not?

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4 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Thanks. And the team can also request arbitration, right? So it might be possible to get an arbitration decision around $2M. At that price, I should think he would have some trade value. Or not?

They can only go to arbitration if he doesn't accept his QO. After this less than stellar season for Lehkonen he will take his QO and run to the bank if he is tendered one. 

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6 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Thanks. And the team can also request arbitration, right? So it might be possible to get an arbitration decision around $2M. At that price, I should think he would have some trade value. Or not?

Once you make the qualifying offer, the player can sign that. 

 

You aren't going to take him to Arb for less than the qualifying offer. 

 

The QO is the minimum Lehkonen would make, if you make the QO. 

 

If you want to re-sign him for less, then you are declining the QO and taking your chances with him as a UFA. 

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Just now, Trizzak said:

They can only go to arbitration if he doesn't accept his QO. After this less than stellar season for Lehkonen he will take his QO and run to the bank if he is tendered one. 

 

There's minimal risk to not go to arbitration in Lehkonen's case.  The Habs can file at 85% but Lehkonen's track record is strong enough with arbitration precedents that he'd be awarded more than $2.2M.  That's why he's a strong candidate not to get one unless they can agree to a deal before the tender deadline.

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23 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

If the salary is $1M or less, it's a 5% increase.  Anything over $1M makes the qualifying offer the salary excluding any signing bonus.

 

 

 

Lehkonen's deal had a $200,000 signing bonus this year, I suspect to lower the QO a bit.  As a result, while his cap hit is $2.4M, his QO is $2.2M.

 

Thanks!

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36 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

There's minimal risk to not go to arbitration in Lehkonen's case.  The Habs can file at 85% but Lehkonen's track record is strong enough with arbitration precedents that he'd be awarded more than $2.2M.  That's why he's a strong candidate not to get one unless they can agree to a deal before the tender deadline.

The Pension Plan Puppets web site refers to a first arbitration window, before the qualifying offer deadline:

Quote

Club Elected Arbitration (First Window

This is the first window for teams to elect arbitration. Only certain RFAs have arbitration rights, and that is based on their number of years of professional experience as laid out in the CBA. For this window, the player’s base salary must be greater than $2,269,479 in the 2019-2020 season.
 

Because this period comes before the Qualifying Offer is due, the arbitration election can be in lieu of that QO.

The arbitrator is limited to an award no lower than 85% of the total of the previous year’s base salary, signing bonuses and performance bonuses. This window is rarely used unless a team thinks a player is overpaid, and that they can demonstrate that to an arbitrator and get an award below the QO.

 

But ... if Lehkonen's track record is strong enough to get more than $2.2M, in a flat-cap league, shouldn't that indicate that there is a team out there that would want him at that salary? Or are the arbitrators completely out to lunch?

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13 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

The Pension Plan Puppets web site refers to a first arbitration window, before the qualifying offer deadline:

 

But ... if Lehkonen's track record is strong enough to get more than $2.2M, in a flat-cap league, shouldn't that indicate that there is a team out there that would want him at that salary? Or are the arbitrators completely out to lunch?

 

Arbitrators are going to look at what players with similar stats got in previous years, they won't consider that those years might be a rising cap and this year is flat. 

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41 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Arbitrators are going to look at what players with similar stats got in previous years, they won't consider that those years might be a rising cap and this year is flat. 

That’ll be a problem for a lot of RFAs, then.

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12 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Did you say to give Dallas some scoring?  Lehkonen? 

 

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

That should have been Drouin

 

18 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Scoring?

;)

 

3 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

yeah, I know... 🙄

I am guessing that away from Montreal he would do better

 

Trying this to avoid going tangental in the TRADE RUMOUR thread ... it works

 

On RDS this morning they made me smile ... discussing how Hoffman (28g/82gm career) was an offensive player who scores goals at a consistent pace (except for this year) but doesn't add much in other areas and was therefore essentially Drouin (14g/82gm) ... 

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While Anderson scores the game-winning goal ... Domi freaks out

 

Called for a hook, a cross-check and a 10 minute misconduct ... in about 10 seconds of play

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Looks a little bit like Tie there. 

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As a result of the latest schedule changes in the North Division with Vancouver's rescheduling, the Habs will now finish their regular season one day later, hosting Edmonton on May 12th.  One less back-to-back at least...

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