Evaluating Players - price to performance

[Jeff Price (no relation)]

As was said in another thread, in the Salary Cap era, it's no longer about simply getting the best players. To be successful, you have to get the best value out of your contracts. As such, I thought it might be good to look at Montreal's roster by cost, and see who's overperforming or underperforming. I'm only looking at guys on the NHL roster as of the 2015 playoffs. (Tinordi might be worth listing, but he's technically in the AHL.)

PK Subban ($9,000,000) - What a massive contract. But we got another Norris performance out of him this year. He's doing exactly what we paid him for. This one is good. Four stars. ****

Carey Price ($6,500,000) - Big contract, but if he were re-signing today, it'd cost us $10,000,000. He's the best in the league, and at this price is a steal. *****

Andrei Markov ($5,750,000) - Big contract, and in his waning years. This would be a good one to look at unloading while he has value. Does he have a No-Trade-Clause? **

Tomas Plekanec ($5,000,000) - Good value for that contract. He's the 25th best offensive center in the NHL, and probably one of the top 10 defensively. The problem is, he's a UFA next year. Trading him NOW might be worth it. ***

Max Pacioretty ($4,500,000) - In my opinion, best left wing in the NHL, at both ends of the ice. He's locked up at this ridiculously low contract for FOUR MORE SEASONS. This right here is the steal of the century. *****

Alexei Emelin ($4,100,000) - Is he a good defenseman? I think so. Thundering hits, responsible play. I like him. Is he worth $4.1 million? HELL NO. We should unload this guy. **

PA Parenteau ($4,000,000) - This contract was a complete bust. He's given us nothing, and is using 4 million in salary space. He'd be overpriced at $2,000,000. Cut your losses here and ditch him. *

Brendan Gallagher ($3,750,000) - The frightening efficiency of this contract rivals MaxPacs. My god. *****

David Desharnais ($3,500,000) - 40th top offensive center in the NHL, and responsible at both ends of the ice. As he's only making a $500,000 premium over the league average of $3 million, this is a steal. Great value here. ****

Lars Eller ($3,500,000) - On the opposite end of the spectrum from Desharnais, Eller has the same cap hit, but produces absolutely nothing. He's a liability defensively, with no offensive upside. Lose him, NOW. *

Tom Gilbert ($2,800,000) - He's an average defenseman, making less than the league average salary. That makes him good value, but easily replaceable. ***

Brandon Prust ($2,000,000) - He's not bad for the money. What he's not doing is giving us the toughness we need. I am not seeing anyone on this roster stick up for Price or Gallagher. That's why we've got Prust. Furthermore, he's a bit of a hot-head. Excusable in Subban, but not in a fringe player. Prust is obviously better than a pure goon, but he's not worth 2 million a year. **

Dale Weise ($1,025,000) - Best $1 million spent on a single player in the entire NHL. *****

Jacob de la Rose ($925,000) - On the high end for an ELC, and he didn't perform much, but he needs time still. **

Devante Smith-Pelly ($800,000) - I love ELCs. He looks like he'll be a solid 2nd or 3rd liner for his career, but for now, the value's in the low cost. ***

Greg Pateryn ($575,000) - Honestly, he looked more effective than Gilbert. This ELC is a steal, but it's only good for one more year. ****

Dustin Tokarski ($575,000) - He's there because Price can't play 82 games a year. That's as low as it's possible to pay him. ***

Alex Galchenyuk (RFA) - Re-sign him, obviously. At what cost? His 30ish points a year is not currently worth above $3 million. Gotta play hardball on that contract.

Nathan Beaulieu (RFA) - He's done nothing to earn himself more than the entry level 0.925 million he made last year. Even that was too much for what he gave us. Sadly, we kinda have to sign him, but more than 1.2 million would be a mistake.

Brian Flynn (RFA) - He only made $650,000 last year. Together with the RFA status, much better bet he comes back than Mitchell.

Manny Mahotra (UFA) - he was a good addition this year. Should have used him more. But see ya.

Mike Weaver (UFA) - Unused, therefore a waste of the 1.75 million we paid him last year.

Torrey Mitchell (UFA) - He'd have to take a BIG pay cut from the 2.5 million he made last year to stick around.

Jeff Petry (UFA) - good defenseman who will command too much money on the open market.

Sergei Gonchar - UFA, won't be re-signed.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Fantastic post. THIS is what HW represents at its best.

I think you overrate the DD contract; he is an average player and should be paid like one; and maybe you under-rate the Eller contract, but that's because I'm not as sure as you that Eller is 'brutal defensively.' I'd like to hear more discussion about Eller's defensive game, given that we will NEED it to be strong if we move Pleks.

[Habsfan1989]

I would look at trying to trade, eller, pap, emelin and Gilbert. Before you all cry that emelin has a ntc well so did Josh George and we traded him. If we package eller and emelin with some prospects that could land us a top 6 player that we need.

We need more playmakers on this team. We have to many of the same type of 2 way gritty players. We also need a more physical d-core. We play to soft in our own zone.

Edited May 13, 2015 by Habsfan1989

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Fantastic post. THIS is what HW represents at its best.

I think you overrate the DD contract; he is an average player and should be paid like one; and maybe you under-rate the Eller contract, but that's because I'm not as sure as you that Eller is 'brutal defensively.' I'd like to hear more discussion about Eller's defensive game, given that we will NEED it to be strong if we move Pleks.

Eller is a strong penalty killer who starts a lot of his assignments in the defensive zone. Whenever he has been saddled with top six minutes and top six competition, especially on the road, he folds mentally and becomes a liability. He gets protected by Therrien by always getting favourable matchups at home instead of the road. I don't have information with me but in the past two road games, I saw Desharnais taking more defensive zone faceoffs than Eller. Eller isn't bad defensively, but would anyone really take Lars Eller over say Joe Colborne in Calgary? Shawn Matthias in Vancouver? Brian Boyle in Tampa? There's no need at this point for us to be paying Eller and convincing ourselves he's an "elite" third line center or that he's gonna turn into a top six forward.

Desharnais, while by no means a strong defensive player and easy to take off the puck and contain, is a good road player and doesn't fold under pressure when facing top six competition. I'm more willing to pay for him at $3.5M for another year just because he seems to be a guaranteed 40 points.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Something has to be done at center. Unless we want to roll DD-Plex-Eller until 2020.

Not much has been said about the failure of the "roll three lines" strategy. The teams who did that this year like NYR and BOS all had trouble scoring when it counted.

[Dalhabs]

Doesnt Prust have 2.5M?

[Habs30/31]

As was said in another thread, in the Salary Cap era, it's no longer about simply getting the best players. To be successful, you have to get the best value out of your contracts. As such, I thought it might be good to look at Montreal's roster by cost, and see who's overperforming or underperforming. I'm only looking at guys on the NHL roster as of the 2015 playoffs. (Tinordi might be worth listing, but he's technically in the AHL.)

PK Subban ($9,000,000) - What a massive contract. But we got another Norris performance out of him this year. He's doing exactly what we paid him for. This one is good. Four stars. ****

Carey Price ($6,500,000) - Big contract, but if he were re-signing today, it'd cost us $10,000,000. He's the best in the league, and at this price is a steal. *****

Andrei Markov ($5,750,000) - Big contract, and in his waning years. This would be a good one to look at unloading while he has value. Does he have a No-Trade-Clause? **

Tomas Plekanec ($5,000,000) - Good value for that contract. He's the 25th best offensive center in the NHL, and probably one of the top 10 defensively. The problem is, he's a UFA next year. Trading him NOW might be worth it. ***

Max Pacioretty ($4,500,000) - In my opinion, best left wing in the NHL, at both ends of the ice. He's locked up at this ridiculously low contract for FOUR MORE SEASONS. This right here is the steal of the century. *****

Alexei Emelin ($4,100,000) - Is he a good defenseman? I think so. Thundering hits, responsible play. I like him. Is he worth $4.1 million? HELL NO. We should unload this guy. **

PA Parenteau ($4,000,000) - This contract was a complete bust. He's given us nothing, and is using 4 million in salary space. He'd be overpriced at $2,000,000. Cut your losses here and ditch him. *

Brendan Gallagher ($3,750,000) - The frightening efficiency of this contract rivals MaxPacs. My god. *****

David Desharnais ($3,500,000) - 40th top offensive center in the NHL, and responsible at both ends of the ice. As he's only making a $500,000 premium over the league average of $3 million, this is a steal. Great value here. ****

Lars Eller ($3,500,000) - On the opposite end of the spectrum from Desharnais, Eller has the same cap hit, but produces absolutely nothing. He's a liability defensively, with no offensive upside. Lose him, NOW. *

Tom Gilbert ($2,800,000) - He's an average defenseman, making less than the league average salary. That makes him good value, but easily replaceable. ***

Brandon Prust ($2,000,000) - He's not bad for the money. What he's not doing is giving us the toughness we need. I am not seeing anyone on this roster stick up for Price or Gallagher. That's why we've got Prust. Furthermore, he's a bit of a hot-head. Excusable in Subban, but not in a fringe player. Prust is obviously better than a pure goon, but he's not worth 2 million a year. **

Dale Weise ($1,025,000) - Best $1 million spent on a single player in the entire NHL. *****

Jacob de la Rose ($925,000) - On the high end for an ELC, and he didn't perform much, but he needs time still. **

Devante Smith-Pelly ($800,000) - I love ELCs. He looks like he'll be a solid 2nd or 3rd liner for his career, but for now, the value's in the low cost. ***

Greg Pateryn ($575,000) - Honestly, he looked more effective than Gilbert. This ELC is a steal, but it's only good for one more year. ****

Dustin Tokarski ($575,000) - He's there because Price can't play 82 games a year. That's as low as it's possible to pay him. ***

Alex Galchenyuk (RFA) - Re-sign him, obviously. At what cost? His 30ish points a year is not currently worth above $3 million. Gotta play hardball on that contract.

Nathan Beaulieu (RFA) - He's done nothing to earn himself more than the entry level 0.925 million he made last year. Even that was too much for what he gave us. Sadly, we kinda have to sign him, but more than 1.2 million would be a mistake.

Brian Flynn (RFA) - He only made $650,000 last year. Together with the RFA status, much better bet he comes back than Mitchell.

Manny Mahotra (UFA) - he was a good addition this year. Should have used him more. But see ya.

Mike Weaver (UFA) - Unused, therefore a waste of the 1.75 million we paid him last year.

Torrey Mitchell (UFA) - He'd have to take a BIG pay cut from the 2.5 million he made last year to stick around.

Jeff Petry (UFA) - good defenseman who will command too much money on the open market.

Sergei Gonchar - UFA, won't be re-signed.

hab colored glasses gets you nowhere

8.5 million a year for the two play off stiffs dd and pleks is wasted money

[Habs30/31]

Rangers Caps game 5 second period. These teams going at it. Both came to play. Dont know how they are doing when they must be "physically and mentally drained"

Come to think of it I dont see how any of the five remaining teams hope to play two more rounds?........would seem impossible after being "physically and mentally drained" before the second round is over. Maybe they can post pone the games for physical and mental rest break.

[habs rule]

Rangers Caps game 5 second period. These teams going at it. Both came to play. Dont know how they are doing when they must be "physically and mentally drained"

Come to think of it I dont see how any of the five remaining teams hope to play two more rounds?........would seem impossible after being "physically and mentally drained" before the second round is over. Maybe they can post pone the games for physical and mental rest break.

That is a good point.

[ICEWATER77]

My thoughts exactly. Here's an idea, maybe we can take all our softies and play in a non-contact league next year?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

My thoughts exactly. Here's an idea, maybe we can take all our softies and play in a non-contact league next year?

Go tell that to the Chicago Blackhawks.

"I think with the rule changes and the way the game's changed, as far as what you can do defensively, small guys are able to get away with a little more and are able to be a little bit more productive."

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

This team did NOT lose to a bigger, more physical team. In fact, we have defeated the last two teams that tried to run us out of the rink (Boston and Ottawa). What we lost to are teams that play a speed/skill game: the Rangers and Tampa Bay.

This tells us a lot, IMHO. We're no longer a team of "smurfs." We can play the physical game and win because of our superior speed, transition game, and goaltending. We run into trouble against teams that rival or surpass our areas of strength (goaltending and speed). This suggests that what we need is more speed/skill: both at FW and, ideally, more mobility on the back end, where Markov and Emelin really struggle against a fast, aggressive forecheck.

The problem with Desharnais is not that he's a smurf. It's that he's not fast enough to pull away from the egregious level of obstruction that defines the playoffs, as, say, Johnny Goudreau is.

[KoRP]

I also think it's some speed and skill that we need in the lineup, if only in a couple of positions, one on the back, and one or two up front.

Sure pulling for a big mean physical #5/6 D too, if Tinordi could only get his shit together...

[BCHabnut]

This team did NOT lose to a bigger, more physical team. In fact, we have defeated the last two teams that tried to run us out of the rink (Boston and Ottawa). What we lost to are teams that play a speed/skill game: the Rangers and Tampa Bay.

This tells us a lot, IMHO. We're no longer a team of "smurfs." We can play the physical game and win because of our superior speed, transition game, and goaltending. We run into trouble against teams that rival or surpass our areas of strength (goaltending and speed). This suggests that what we need is more speed/skill: both at FW and, ideally, more mobility on the back end, where Markov and Emelin really struggle against a fast, aggressive forecheck.

The problem with Desharnais is not that he's a smurf. It's that he's not fast enough to pull away from the egregious level of obstruction that defines the playoffs, as, say, Johnny Goudreau is.

One great thing that I take from this post is that speed and skill are working their way back into playoff hockey. I was getting so sick of teams like LA, San Jose, Boston, Philly bullying and cheating their way through the playoffs. This year there is only one cheating team (Anaheim) and three speed skill teams. Last year was the same unfortunately the cheating team won. I say cheating because these guys know how big they are and they know when to turn on the dirt. The difference between regular season and playoff reffing has spread a great deal since 05 when clutch and grab were cracked down on.

[habs rule]

My thoughts exactly. Here's an idea, maybe we can take all our softies and play in a non-contact league next year?

Or may the league could back off to 40 games so we don't get so gosh darn tired. What a load of hooey.

[ICEWATER77]

Ok then, let's stay status quo. Maybe our window will not close on us

[Jeff Price (no relation)]

Who's suggesting status quo? There's several people we need to either unload or trade. Not all of them are bad players, but to get value, you need to give value.

[ICEWATER77]

I absolutely agree Jeff. I would start with Pleks and spice it up with Fucale and a 1st..and while we're evaluating, I think the entire coaching staff should be critiqued as well

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Ok then, let's stay status quo. Maybe our window will not close on us

Four more years of Pacioretty in his 20s at $4.5M

Three more years of Price before he needs a new deal.

Seven more years of Subban on our blueline.

Six more years of Gallagher at only $3.75M

Alex Galchenyuk and Nathan Beaulieu on their first RFA contracts

Nikita Scherbak, Michael McCarron and Charlie Hudon not even in the NHL yet

Our window is pretty side open.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Four more years of Pacioretty in his 20s at $4.5M

Three more years of Price before he needs a new deal.

Seven more years of Subban on our blueline.

Six more years of Gallagher at only $3.75M

Alex Galchenyuk and Nathan Beaulieu on their first RFA contracts

Nikita Scherbak, Michael McCarron and Charlie Hudon not even in the NHL yet

Our window is pretty side open.

I agree, and it's time to switch from 'development' mode to 'champion' mode IMHO. Price, Subban, and Patches are entering their primes (Price is already in his, and will be hard pressed ever to top this regular season). I agree with the organizational approach up to this point, but I don't want to hear too much more of this 'work in progress' ideology emanating from management going forward. It's time to start making serious Cup runs.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I agree, and it's time to switch from 'development' mode to 'champion' mode IMHO. Price, Subban, and Patches are entering their primes (Price is already in his, and will be hard pressed ever to top this regular season). I agree with the organizational approach up to this point, but I don't want to hear too much more of this 'work in progress' ideology emanating from management going forward. It's time to start making serious Cup runs.

I get the feeling Bergevin wanted the team to not be so wet behind the ears and wanted to see one or two more of a younger pieces locked up before he went into "champion" mode. That means Galchenyuk signed and Scherbak with the Habs. Naming Scherbak was very interesting to me. I think he sees him playing next year. If he does, and he plays well, there's no reason not to go into champion mode.

Imagine if Scherbak moves into the lineup and puts up, say, 15 goals as a rookie. That changes a lot.

[DON]

Patience!

Timmins noted Scherbak-Galchenyuk had good chemistry at training camp. Seems encouraging.

I imagine Hudon will fight for a spot as long as strengthens some over summer. They hinted he would be pushed around by bigger stronger C in NHL and needs to get stronger to be able to fight for pucks/position.

Also will be curious to see how Gregoire looks coming into the Sept. camps.

[Habs30/31]

I get the feeling Bergevin wanted the team to not be so wet behind the ears and wanted to see one or two more of a younger pieces locked up before he went into "champion" mode. That means Galchenyuk signed and Scherbak with the Habs. Naming Scherbak was very interesting to me. I think he sees him playing next year. If he does, and he plays well, there's no reason not to go into champion mode.

Imagine if Scherbak moves into the lineup and puts up, say, 15 goals as a rookie. That changes a lot.

Would be great.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Would be great.

Indeed. But what if Scherbak doesn't deliver next year? Then are we in some sort of 'waiting for Scherbak' mode?

It's a big mistake to wait around until all the stars align perfectly, I think (rather like Gainey did in 2009, deciding that that was The Year). We can safely project, what, maybe five more elite years from Price? And then there is the risk/likelihood of injury to key pieces kyboshing a playoff run or two in that span. I'm not saying we firebomb the farm in a desperate attempt to WIN NOW - I would hardly ever say that, actually, since I don't believe in the 'all in' model if that means gutting your future - but the time for 'patience' is over IMHO. It's time to hit the next level.

[BCHabnut]

Indeed. But what if Scherbak doesn't deliver next year? Then are we in some sort of 'waiting for Scherbak' mode?

It's a big mistake to wait around until all the stars align perfectly, I think (rather like Gainey did in 2009, deciding that that was The Year). We can safely project, what, maybe five more elite years from Price? And then there is the risk/likelihood of injury to key pieces kyboshing a playoff run or two in that span. I'm not saying we firebomb the farm in a desperate attempt to WIN NOW - I would hardly ever say that, actually, since I don't believe in the 'all in' model if that means gutting your future - but the time for 'patience' is over IMHO. It's time to hit the next level.

The health thing is one which I have keyed on a bit lately and it's a good point. THis team has been healthy. If this is the best they can do when healthy then what if a big guy is hurt for several games. I suspect they would barely make the playoffs. I am in agreement that the next five years is the window to win with the core they have now. PAP can't have a second year like this one. It was brutal and he is better than that. Hopefully he isn't ruined from his concussion like Borque was. If he can put up an extra 15 points, Chuck can improve by 10 points and Beaulieu as well, there could be enough internal help to only need one top 6 guy from outside the team.