Comparatively, how have we done...drafting?

[REV-G]

Since we're in a freefall and everyone and everything is being looked at, I couldn't help but notice that when we had injuries in December, we had help from the farm but nothing that made a real impact. So my question is, compared to other teams how have we done in the draft over the past 5-7 years, compared to other teams. Trevor Timmons is always talked about in a very positive way. Is that still the case?

What do we have on the farm and in our system, drafted players, compared to other teams. My guess is we're in the middle of the pack. Not the best or the worst in terms of drafting players and having them make an impact on our team.

The last time I counted we have somewhere around half of our team that we drafted and developed and are playing for us today. Is that high?...normal.....or low, compared to other teams.

Then I think of David Fisher, Ryan Obyrne, the Kostitsyns, Danny Kristo [traded but now Christian Thomas is gone], Colberg, Louis Leblanc, and all the other draftees who either never made it, were disappointments, or are in our system and don't look like they'll every make it. I know this happens to all teams but I wonder if there's a way to compare, measure how we're doing?

Is our drafting a strength, are we better than others, or are we behind the better teams in how we draft? Should we have more blue chip prospects, have we passed over blue chippers for not so great ones?

What do you think? How are we doing at the draft table?

[sbhatt]

Not well enough, not by a longshot. Our organization has major holes, with no clear 'heir apparent' prospects likely to pan out well enough to fill them. I think Trevor Timmons has been coasting on a few home run picks for far too long, while his major flops and obvious smurf fetish have been swept under the rug.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I remember reading somewhere that the Habs have one of the highest success rates in terms of drafting guys who become NHL players. But that's different from saying we have a great record of drafting high impact NHL players.

PK Subban in the 2nd round, and Gallagher in the fifth, go a long way, though.

But I'll leave this to posters like Commandant and dlbalr who know a lot more about this sort of thing than I do.

[Link67]

i'd say we are among the top 15, and I feel that way because every team, even the best of them draft their Fisher's and Leblanc's.

Ultimately he drafted our 5 core players, and for that he deserves his due. He has been far from perfect, but at the end of the day his picks are major pieces of this club, and that is all you can ask of your scouting staff. Going forward I feel like it is less apparent what picks can punch through the NHL ranks in the coming years outside of Andrighetto, McCarron, and Hudon. But if guys like Reway get their acts together, and Scherbak gets back on his horse, or Bozon ever regains his pre-illness form their could be more on the horizon.

[habsFan1986]

Just look at that 2003 draft and it will tell you all you need to know

[Lovett's Magnatones]

The only criticism I have is that the Habs have done a poor job drafting larger players, but ostensibly, that could be because with the exception of a few sure things like Joe Thornton and Eric Lindros, bigger players develop more slowly.

[hab29RETIRED]

I remember a lot of raving over dalton thrower and others drafted that year. Isn't he in the E now?

[Meller93]

Just look at that 2003 draft and it will tell you all you need to know

I think (could be wrong) that was pre-Timmons. It's also hard to land immediate impact players when you draft 20-30 almost every year. 2012 we drafted Galchenyuk and he leads his draft class in games and points. Before that we picked Beaulieu in 2011 who is turning out to be a very solid NHL defenseman. Tinordi was a disaster, but the same draft we got Gallagher.

It's too early to tell how the 2013-2015 drafts will be, but McCarron is having a good AHL season, Scherbak has high potential, and Juulsen is a quality prospect as well.

Mix in guys like de la rose, andrighetto, Hudon, who all have NHL experience and I don't think we're doing too bad.

It's not on Timmons that we simply haven't been drafting high enough since Galchenyuk to land mackinnons, ekblads, monahan's etc.

[Commandant]

The drafting is fine, its what becomes of the players.

McDonagh

Grabovski

S. Kostitsyn

G. Latendresse

Chipchura

Streit

White

Assets and Players thrown away with little to show for it today.

We have had some of the best drafting in the league (in terms of games played/pick we are actually tops since timmins got here) but far too much talent thrown away with nothing in return.

And yes some of those players it may have been time to move on from, and I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying we have nothing in our team today to show for those guys. We let themd go with nothing in return.

[Link67]

forgot all about McDonaugh, a painful memory, the thought of him AND Subban, together, in the same defense lineup still stings.

[Neech]

It's safe to say that scouting is a strength of ours, and we've definitely drafted better than most teams. Not the best, however. Just look at the talent Tampa has drafted in the past five years, or the core that Boston put together ten years ago. We've done well, but not on that level.

The McDonagh trade will always hurt, because PK could be even better with a partner who complimented his playing style.

[Commandant]

Tampa and Boston have their head scratchers too.

Slater Koekkoek is very questionable for a top 10 pick.

Brett Connelly at 6th overall is a big mistake

Jonathan Drouin or Seth Jones? Bet they'd like a re do there.

Boston has Zach Hamill at 8th overall, but then have head scratchers in terms of throwing away talent like Seguin, Hamilton, and others too.

Both those teams though have the benefit of way more top 5 and top 10 picks than Timmins has had (2) since taking over drafting.

[dlbalr]

In the last 5-7 years (the timeline from the first post), the Habs have traded the following picks away:

2015 2nd

2015 4th

2014 2nd

2014 4th

2013 5th

2013 7th

2012 7th

2011 2nd

2011 3rd

2010 2nd

2010 3rd

2010 6th

2009 2nd

(Yes, they've also acquired some, that's just a listing of the rounds they didn't pick in for those seasons.)

From 2009-2011, no 2nd round picks. Those are players that you would hope if they had those picks would be in the NHL or the first guys coming up from the farm. (For reference, Beaulieu and Dietz were 2011 selections, MacMillan and Ellis - both in the AHL - were picked in 2010.)

The discussion as to why they don't have as many good call-ups as they should has to take that into consideration. Basically, they're missing three or four simply from the picks they've dealt away.

The Habs are either at the top of the list or very close to it in terms of NHL games played by draft picks in the last 10 or so years. (I saw a link a few weeks ago about it, can't seem to find it now so I'm going off memory here.) Based on that alone, you'd think Timmins is doing a great job. However, a lot of those have been later round picks that have overachieved; his hit level in recent years with the few higher picks they've had isn't all that inspiring.

I'm not particularly high on the current prospect pool. It's probably the weakest it has been in quite a few years. Part of that is due to picking at the back of the first more often than not, trading away a lot of 2nd/3rd round picks, and Timmins missing on guys like Leblanc and Tinordi.

I would still put the Habs towards the upper end in terms of scouting though. They're not the best in the league but there are a lot of teams that would happily trade scouting staffs with Montreal's.

[Neech]

Our prospect pool is a little thin, but I have high hopes for Hudon and McCarron, who should both get a legitimate shot to make the team next year. Unfortunately, both project for a bottom-6 role. If we have a weakness it's getting scorers.

Maybe Reway can come over and produce, but that's a long shot.

[hab29RETIRED]

the tinordi trade hurts even more - didnt they trade up and i think gave up a 2nd to move up.

In the last 5-7 years (the timeline from the first post), the Habs have traded the following picks away:

2015 2nd

2015 4th

2014 2nd

2014 4th

2013 5th

2013 7th

2012 7th

2011 2nd

2011 3rd

2010 2nd

2010 3rd

2010 6th

2009 2nd

(Yes, they've also acquired some, that's just a listing of the rounds they didn't pick in for those seasons.)

From 2009-2011, no 2nd round picks. Those are players that you would hope if they had those picks would be in the NHL or the first guys coming up from the farm. (For reference, Beaulieu and Dietz were 2011 selections, MacMillan and Ellis - both in the AHL - were picked in 2010.)

The discussion as to why they don't have as many good call-ups as they should has to take that into consideration. Basically, they're missing three or four simply from the picks they've dealt away.

The Habs are either at the top of the list or very close to it in terms of NHL games played by draft picks in the last 10 or so years. (I saw a link a few weeks ago about it, can't seem to find it now so I'm going off memory here.) Based on that alone, you'd think Timmins is doing a great job. However, a lot of those have been later round picks that have overachieved; his hit level in recent years with the few higher picks they've had isn't all that inspiring.

I'm not particularly high on the current prospect pool. It's probably the weakest it has been in quite a few years. Part of that is due to picking at the back of the first more often than not, trading away a lot of 2nd/3rd round picks, and Timmins missing on guys like Leblanc and Tinordi.

I would still put the Habs towards the upper end in terms of scouting though. They're not the best in the league but there are a lot of teams that would happily trade scouting staffs with Montreal's.

[DON]

Timmins had two top 5 picks and Price and Galchenyuk seem OK choices.

The last year which Habs had two 1st round picks, took Pacioretty & McDonagh.

Beaulieu is as expected, LL wasn't a surprise mid-1st pick.

Scherbak-Juulsen seem good choices, will either pan out?

I didn't like neither Tinordi nor McCarron choices.

And even Kostitsyn "fell" to the Habs due to seizure/health issues, but he did have a 26g rookie year and couple 20g seasons, had loads of talents/skills but hockey IQ very questionable and fell down alot.

(Fischer was a miss in 2006; Chipchura in 2004 I guess another miss)

[Commandant]

Chipchura would have been a fine third liner if he didn't lose speed due to a freak achilles injury. He was never fast, but losing a step was killer.

[Trizzak]

I remember a lot of raving over dalton thrower and others drafted that year. Isn't he in the E now?

We rave over every player drafted before Round 7, and even then you're gonna get one guy post an overly hopeful, "I like this pick!" about someone no one is even sure exists.

Also, Thrower's development was decimated by injuries.

[Commandant]

2 players a draft is far above average

2012 has Galchenyuk and likely Hudon as NHLers.

[Trizzak]

I would still put the Habs towards the upper end in terms of scouting though. They're not the best in the league but there are a lot of teams that would happily trade scouting staffs with Montreal's.

https://tifubyjoiningreddit.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/how-well-have-the-montreal-canadiens-drafted-since-2000/

Some notable tidbits from this analysis:

- 40 percent of their first round picks have been defensemen, most amongst all teams since 2000. (If you want to know why Montreal can't score, here's a pretty good reason why... other teams draft more scorers in the first round.)

- Our first rounder with the most points is Chris Higgins (saveuspaciorretty.exe only 16 points away)

- Against league-average success rates, Montreal is either above-average or average in every round.

- We have 6 late round picks (4th round+) with over 100 GP. They have averaged .49 points per game... tied for best in the NHL, but only one is currently on the team.

TLDR: Surprise, surprise...we draft a lot of NHLers that don't score.

[REV-G]

Great comments and analysis. I wonder if we will move away a bit this year and next from the "draft the best player available" Sam Pollock approach to "draft the best scorer available" due to our past strong emphasis on drafting d-men and our seeming huge need to get some blue chip scorers?

[Commandant]

we also have a huge need for Left Handed Defencemen... we've drafted a lot but they are all righties, so I'm not sure if going "best scorer" is the solution.

Keep in mind too that the "we draft a lot of defencemen" analysis is one that starts at 2000. It isn't really true of the Bergevin regime. The thing with drafting is that evaluating any draft that is less than 5 years old is a work in progress.

2012... 6 fwds 1 D

2013... 7 fwds 0 D 1 G

2014... 3 fwds 2 D 1 G

2015... 3 fwds 2 D

so in 4 drafts under Bergevin we have 19 fwds, 5 D and 2 G drafted....

The idea that we drafted a higher percentage of D may have been true in the 2000s, but its not really true under this regime.

[DON]

Drafting by position typically not good way to go, unless later in draft or like with a Marc Staal-Price and Timmins tells Gainey is flip a coin on two equally rated prospects.

Also just because draft a RH d-man when don't presently need one, dosent mean in 2 or 3 years the roster will still be the same; or can simply look at a prospect as an asset to trade for a position player you need.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Drafting by position typically not good way to go, unless later in draft or like with a Marc Staal-Price and Timmins tells Gainey is flip a coin on two equally rated prospects.

Also just because draft a RH d-man when don't presently need one, dosent mean in 2 or 3 years the roster will still be the same; or can simply look at a prospect as an asset to trade for a position player you need.

Yeah, I tend to favour to BPA approach precisely on the grounds that you can't fully anticipate team needs 3-4 years down the line. There may occasionally be exceptions to this, as when there is an absolutely glaring organizational need - by which I mean NOT that the current NHL team is weak at position X or Y, but that the organization as a whole is weak at that position. Drafting based on the current needs of the NHL squad makes no sense at all, since the prospect won't be making the roster for years to come.

When the Habs drafted Price, a lot of 'experts' were befuddled because the team needed scorers (which in their minds was represented by Gilbert Brulé) and we had Theo in net. Yet Theo flamed out shortly thereafter and Price has become the greatest Hab of his generation. There's a lesson there.

If you end up with too many assets of the same type as a result of the BPA philosophy, then just trade one for help in other areas.

[Trizzak]

we also have a huge need for Left Handed Defencemen... we've drafted a lot but they are all righties, so I'm not sure if going "best scorer" is the solution.

Keep in mind too that the "we draft a lot of defencemen" analysis is one that starts at 2000. It isn't really true of the Bergevin regime. The thing with drafting is that evaluating any draft that is less than 5 years old is a work in progress.

2012... 6 fwds 1 D

2013... 7 fwds 0 D 1 G

2014... 3 fwds 2 D 1 G

2015... 3 fwds 2 D

so in 4 drafts under Bergevin we have 19 fwds, 5 D and 2 G drafted....

The idea that we drafted a higher percentage of D may have been true in the 2000s, but its not really true under this regime.

K... but the analysis on the percentage of D drafted was for the 1st round, not overall. And the key point is that the current team can't score because a high percentage of our draft picks that are most likely to make the NHL have been defensemen.

It's great that Bergevin has drafted 75% forwards in his 1st rounds... hopefully they can add offense to this team in 2-3 years.