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Point Shares: Big things ahead for Galchenyuk?


dlbalr

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I don't often get into advanced stats but point shares is something I look at every so often as it attempts to identify each players' contribution to a team's point overall point total. It's not a perfect method but the results seem logical. Take last year for example:

1) Price - 13.9

2) Pacioretty - 9.6

3) Subban - 9.3

You'd have a hard time arguing that those three players weren't the biggest contributors to team success.

There's an article in the Washington Post today that talks about point shares. Its primary topic is about Ovechkin but at the bottom, there's a projection for point shares for the remainder of a players' career. The player that sits atop that list? Alex Galchenyuk, by a country mile.

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The article mentions that Galchenyuk has amassed 6.5 point shares in his career thus far and that only 23 forwards in NHL history have had more by the age of 20. Clearly, this stat projects big things for Galchenyuk. Will we see that starting this year?

Post article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/11/that-capitals-alex-ovechkin-is-a-franchise-player-and-heres-why/

What are point shares?: http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html

(The Post article also has a mini-poll about franchise players in the game today and there are a couple of Habs that received some votes.)

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I really really really like Galchenyuk, and I definitely think that he has a really good future ahead of him, but I think think article is overstated. He would need to be equivalent of 13 points-shares a year for the next 20 years would he not?

I'm not framillier with how this works exactly but he doesn't have that many playing-years-left advantage of even a guy like stamkos. How is he going to account for 160 more points for his team then stamkos with maybe say 3 extra years remaining in his career?

Am I understanding it wrong?

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I really really really like Galchenyuk, and I definitely think that he has a really good future ahead of him, but I think think article is overstated. He would need to be equivalent of 13 points-shares a year for the next 20 years would he not?

You and me both (and I expect everyone else as well will feel the same way). I'm not all that familiar with the ins and out of the stat as well (it's a stat I look at a handful of times a year) but I suspect the lofty projections are based on the fact such a small number of players had as many total PS as Galchenyuk at age 20.

To put that 13 average in perspective, one player had a total PS over 13 last year, Crosby. In 2011-12 (the lockout year was too small), only two did, Stamkos and Karlsson. Expecting Galchenyuk to provide that many for that long does seem extreme.

Nonetheless, it predicts big things for him which is more or less where I wanted to go with this thread. It suggests he's pegged for a breakout season (otherwise he'll have to average closer to 14/year to get to that 265), is that realistic for him given that his likely role is 2nd/3rd line LW?

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You and me both (and I expect everyone else as well will feel the same way). I'm not all that familiar with the ins and out of the stat as well (it's a stat I look at a handful of times a year) but I suspect the lofty projections are based on the fact such a small number of players had as many total PS as Galchenyuk at age 20.

To put that 13 average in perspective, one player had a total PS over 13 last year, Crosby. In 2011-12 (the lockout year was too small), only two did, Stamkos and Karlsson. Expecting Galchenyuk to provide that many for that long does seem extreme.

Nonetheless, it predicts big things for him which is more or less where I wanted to go with this thread. It suggests he's pegged for a breakout season (otherwise he'll have to average closer to 14/year to get to that 265), is that realistic for him given that his likely role is 2nd/3rd line LW?

He needs to earn his way onto the top lines into big minutes. Last year that didn't happen. I don't see why not. Some of the plays he makes, that "it" factor reminds me of watching early PK Subban.

I can't help but think that playing him with Plekanec is a mistake. The guy's an offensive dynamo, do we want him to learn how to backcheck with a center that has had "chemistry" with three players over the course of 10 years? (Gionta, Kovalev, Kostitsyn).

Would you want Bob Gainey to center Guy Lafleur?

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Is that realistic for him given that his likely role is 2nd/3rd line LW?

I'll restate that I think Galchenyuk has a bright future (just so no one flames me) but I don't expect any more than 55 points from him next year. Couple of reasons.

1) he will likely get much tougher competition especially if he spends much time with plex.

2) Comparables such as seguin scored at .666 ppg in the lockout season = 55 points in a year. Nugent Hopkins, another good comparable scored 56 points in his third (last year). I think Chucky may be equal to these guys.

Last point, as long as Galchenyuk is facing tough competition, 55 points should actually be interpreted as a great year, and a very promising one.

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If he gets the minutes he'll get the points. The minutes are what holds him back. Guys like Hopkins and Landeskog have much more impressive numbers, especially in PPG but both players in their rookie years were averaging more ice time on even strength than Galchenyuk averaged last season in total minutes.

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I hope he comes into season 10lbs heavier, a bit quicker step, more confident and rips it up for 75points, but who the heck knows how will play out?

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I see Chucky's talent without a doubt but I think mgmt puts a collar on these types of players in order to keep their salaries low.

Was he placed in a position to succeed last year, the argument "well you need to ease him in slowly"......I guess breaing up the EGG line was better for the lteam but not better for the athlete.

Why hasn't he played in his drafted center position yet, hmmm, playing him on the wing has limited his offensive output...How is he going to argue at contract renewal time, "I played left wing for the team and I should get paid more for playing for the team and not for my personal stats". This is true but players get paid mostly for their stats

Beaulieu and Tinner were put in the same position last year, a broken broom handle would have played better than Douglas Murray, and yet the two youngsters were jerked around.

I hope he gets a little heavier and gets PP time, I love to watch his passes.

.

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Habs fans really need to consider the fact that after Galchenyuk was drafted, Sarnia did not have him take faceoffs. He would move to the middle of the ice while the other player took the wing but Galchenyuk was hardly playing center.

He may stay a left wing for his entire career and that's okay. He has the skill to be the best left wing in the game if Ovechkin never moves back.

He could also stay LW until both Plekanec and Desharnais are gone and then move to the center. That's fine too. Damphousse wasn't a center until the mid 90s. Played a good eight seasons at the wing.

So yeah, I'm just going to continue to be patient on his potential move to center. This idea that you have to rush it? Bollocks.

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Habs fans really need to consider the fact that after Galchenyuk was drafted, Sarnia did not have him take faceoffs. He would move to the middle of the ice while the other player took the wing but Galchenyuk was hardly playing center.

He may stay a left wing for his entire career and that's okay. He has the skill to be the best left wing in the game if Ovechkin never moves back.

He could also stay LW until both Plekanec and Desharnais are gone and then move to the center. That's fine too. Damphousse wasn't a center until the mid 90s. Played a good eight seasons at the wing.

So yeah, I'm just going to continue to be patient on his potential move to center. This idea that you have to rush it? Bollocks.

I never played, but why are faceoffs like a secret? Isn't this something that just about any athlete can learn? Why can't Malhotra spend ten minutes after practice taking faceoffs with Galchenyuk? He should just cheat. Classy Bergeron cheats in on damn near every faceoff.

http://sportsglory.com/nhl/patrice-bergeron-on-faceoff-calls-if-you-dont-cheat-youre-not-trying/4265

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Yes draw success can be learned and Crosby is good example and his % increased a lot over first several years as he got stronger and worked hard at it.

Plekanec for some reason has never improved? Why is a good question? I think he is a hard worker, but maybe he just dosent have a 'knack' for it?

Maybe like 'bunting' in baseball, which seems straightforward and should be easy to do, but do players practice it consistently? And why do some pros have such difficulty after playing literally thousands of games?

Larry Bird used to practice practice practice shooting everyday and got quite good at it, consistent hard work tends to pay off.

But, why Malhotra, Bergeron, Toews and some others are so much better than most? Practice, focus, will, strength, good wingers/coaching?

But, like someone said, don't need to forcefeed Galchenyuk into centre role.

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great analogy..faceoffs and bunting are incredibly similar. they both require will, hand/eye coordination, and technique. i'd say strength is much more vital to winning a faceoff than it is to properly lay down a bunt however.

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How much stronger was yannic Perrault than most players??

great analogy..faceoffs and bunting are incredibly similar. they both require will, hand/eye coordination, and technique. i'd say strength is much more vital to winning a faceoff than it is to properly lay down a bunt however.

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100% agree - which is why I think he should be given a chance at centre. Also why I think we should move pleks for a 1st line winger. No room to have pleks, Eller, dd and Galchenyuk at centre. I also think that playing with pleks isn't going to allow Galchenyuk to fully realize his offensive potential.

Yes draw success can be learned and Crosby is good example and his % increased a lot over first several years as he got stronger and worked hard at it.

Plekanec for some reason has never improved? Why is a good question? I think he is a hard worker, but maybe he just dosent have a 'knack' for it?

Maybe like 'bunting' in baseball, which seems straightforward and should be easy to do, but do players practice it consistently? And why do some pros have such difficulty after playing literally thousands of games?

Larry Bird used to practice practice practice shooting everyday and got quite good at it, consistent hard work tends to pay off.

But, why Malhotra, Bergeron, Toews and some others are so much better than most? Practice, focus, will, strength, good wingers/coaching?

But, like someone said, don't need to forcefeed Galchenyuk into centre role.

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How much stronger was yannic Perrault than most players??

it's not like I said strength was the #1 factor to winning draws. hand/eye coordination and technique are much more important. and how am I supposed to know how strong Perrault was compared to the other nhl centers?

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I can't help but think that playing him with Plekanec is a mistake. The guy's an offensive dynamo, do we want him to learn how to backcheck with a center that has had "chemistry" with three players over the course of 10 years? (Gionta, Kovalev, Kostitsyn).

That's one side. The other side is that if you want Galchenyuk to learn to play a bit of a two-way game, there's no better centre to play with other than Plekanec. I'm sure there will be a lot of discussion amongst the coaches/management to determine what's the best route for him. Do they keep him with Plekanec to help develop that defensive game or as one of their most gifted offensive talents, is it best to put him on a scoring line as early and as often as possible and delay the two-way development?

If the plan is eventually to move him to centre, I think he needs to learn more about the defensive side of the game to help him with the extra defensive responsibilities placed on a centre. That means he should probably start with Plekanec, even with the chemistry concerns noted as that line will face tough defensive assignments but will still be counted on to score. Galchenyuk has enough raw skill that even if he plays as a two-way player for a while, his offensive abilities will come to the forefront when he's eventually on more of an offensive line.

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I don't know how great Galy can be; all I know is that he has done amazingly well for a kid who missed an entire year of junior (!), and that he might well have been the #1 overall pick had he not gotten hurt. So I don't think a high ceiling should be regarded as outlandish for a player of that profile.

On the other issues, I'm of the "don't rush him" school. The team is winning, we have lots of quality C, there is simply no need to break him in in anything other than a gradual fashion. The desire to rush him along has more to do with fan gratification than any law of player development. I don't care if he ever plays a game at C either. Guy Lafleur was another high-ceiling player who was brought along gradually, and he played the W, and I seem to remember him doing all right by us.

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I don't know how great Galy can be; all I know is that he has done amazingly well for a kid who missed an entire year of junior (!), and that he might well have been the #1 overall pick had he not gotten hurt. So I don't think a high ceiling should be regarded as outlandish for a player of that profile.

On the other issues, I'm of the "don't rush him" school. The team is winning, we have lots of quality C, there is simply no need to break him in in anything other than a gradual fashion. The desire to rush him along has more to do with fan gratification than any law of player development. I don't care if he ever plays a game at C either. Guy Lafleur was another high-ceiling player who was brought along gradually, and he played the W, and I seem to remember him doing all right by us.

Agreed!
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Yannic Perrault was a cream puff who couldn't come out with the puck if he went in the corner with subban's gramma. However, the guy was an ace on the draw.

it's not like I said strength was the #1 factor to winning draws. hand/eye coordination and technique are much more important. and how am I supposed to know how strong Perrault was compared to the other nhl centers?

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Ahhh, Perrault was all right. But praise the good Lord we are no longer in a situation where guys like him and Oleg Petrov are "core players" on the team :bonk: I never imagined the Habs sinking so low, and hopefully I never have to see that kind of garbage again.

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Yup, building through the draft may pay off.

And the last time Timmins had a top 5 pick he struck gold and Galchenyuk really does show flashes of what he may become and do to opposing d-men.

I don't know this PA guy, but I kinda like everyone on the roster...cept #17 and I just hope (but very highly doubt) he actually puts forth a consistent/honest effort this season.

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Not sure what made me think of this, but is there any. Point-share vs cap hit comparison? Subban for example will be making I think 13% of the cap hit. Will he make up 13% of his teams points?

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