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Lars Eller re-signs, 4 years, $3.5M per year


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My god you guys are melodramatic. I was one of Eller's biggest critics but I'm quite fine with the contract. Eller at his worst is a 30 point third line center. That's at the very worst. He had terrible luck last season and couldn't handle the extra duties. At $3.5m AAV he isn't untradeable.

Calm down folks.

My problem is the term. The money stinks, but it's .5 million in over payment for Eller's UFA years. No biggie there.

My question is, why do you want Eller for four more years?! Is he the kind of guy who we want to retire a Hab? I guarantee it, when you have marginal top-9 players around for 7! years, by the second year of this deal, we'll be carping about him like we do with Travis Moen.

I disagree with the fan sentiment that he's still developing. This is his third deal! He's played like five full seasons, and in a full year, he's failed to put up thirty points.

To me, this deal is a big time candidate for a buyout down the road. Eller can't handle the pressure and lacks confidence, so Daddy Bergevin coddles his with a big deal.

New thread idea: "What's Eller Excuse Next Year?"

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Guest Stogey24

My problem is the term. The money stinks, but it's .5 million in over payment for Eller's UFA years. No biggie there.

My question is, why do you want Eller for four more years?! Is he the kind of guy who we want to retire a Hab? I guarantee it, when you have marginal top-9 players around for 7! years, by the second year of this deal, we'll be carping about him like we do with Travis Moen.

I disagree with the fan sentiment that he's still developing. This is his third deal! He's played like five full seasons, and in a full year, he's failed to put up thirty points.

To me, this deal is a big time candidate for a buyout down the road. Eller can't handle the pressure and lacks confidence, so Daddy Bergevin coddles his with a big deal.

New thread idea: "What's Eller Excuse Next Year?"

Well its pretty hard to like the contract when you don't like the player.... correct?
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The risk for Montreal is that 2012 and 2014 of 28/26 points is the kind of scorer Lars Eller is. We just paid $3.5M on the cap for a 25-30 point centerman. 2013 was an anomaly for him to have 30 in 48 and we're now paying a bottom six player pretty much the highest amount you would pay to a bottom six player.

Comparables

Jarrett Stoll: $3.25M cap hit, used to be a 30-40 point center, now hits 27 points for the Kings. For those curious, Stoll did play third line center in the playoffs with Richards on the fourth.

Adam Henrique: $4M cap hit, could be future top six forward for Devils, sometimes plays wing, 43 points.

Derek Brassard: $3.2M cap hit, might play more top six with Richards gone. 45 points.

So if your belief is that Lars Eller is not going to improve one bit on his 2012/2014 totals and will more likely be the replacement for Manny Malhotra than Tomas Plekanec? I understand your fears. I don't agree, but some people like to counteract Leaf fans and be eternal pessimists.

Now, let's say like the contract negotiation itself, Eller becomes that halfway point between his 2013 season and his 2014 season. So 40-45 points per season. That puts Eller right on the line with some of the best third line centers in the league, and he's gonna make significantly less than a Sean Couturier will when he gets his new contract. In this case the deal is perfectly priced.

Now the optimist could see Eller breaking into a 50-60 point player. He was on pace in a full year for 50 points in 2013. That makes him a top six center. Now Eller won't ever make that point total without more powerplay time. But if Eller becomes a 50-60 point player with PP time then he's playing like a top six center and a top six center at $3.5M is a complete steal.

TL:DR either Eller is a 28 point player for the next four years and overpaid, a 40 point player and appropriately paid or a 55 point center and underpaid.

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I just don't want to watch the guy play for MTL two presidents from now. On the ice, he has the intelligence of a fart joke. He's a headcase in the vein of Bulis. He takes offensive zone penalties like there's no tomorrow. When he scored in that Ottawa game after 20 games of zip, he looked like he was about to burst into tears. He has a weird haircut...

About the third line center comparables, my third line center in two years is Plek, with Gally/DD in the top two slots. Now we're stuck with Loopy Larry.

As far as being a pessimist, I don't know as much as you, but name me a first round pick with four years in the league that exploded at the age of 26? Guys like DD or MSt Louis might do that, but they're undrafted guys who work their way up. Eller got his start in MTL instead of the minors due to the politics of the Halak trade. Everything is handed to him.

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Hillary will be a two termer, so Eller will be near an old timer by then. :flaming:

But, 4 years aint that bad and if he clicks with 2 wingers he should do well and at worst he is good at faceoffs and on the PK.

He and Malhotra should take some pressure off Plekanec to have to take most of PK faceoffs. ANd maybe Plekanec will have more time to be offensive?

(and the funky haircut, I actually think is a bit 'out their' for a Scandinavian, but for older folically challenged folks, we (me) are more jealous than dislike it)

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My problem is the term. The money stinks, but it's .5 million in over payment for Eller's UFA years. No biggie there.

My question is, why do you want Eller for four more years?! Is he the kind of guy who we want to retire a Hab? I guarantee it, when you have marginal top-9 players around for 7! years, by the second year of this deal, we'll be carping about him like we do with Travis Moen.

I disagree with the fan sentiment that he's still developing. This is his third deal! He's played like five full seasons, and in a full year, he's failed to put up thirty points.

To me, this deal is a big time candidate for a buyout down the road. Eller can't handle the pressure and lacks confidence, so Daddy Bergevin coddles his with a big deal.

New thread idea: "What's Eller Excuse Next Year?"

Ha ha, I love this post, especially the last bit. :lol:

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you...I think it's too soon to say that L'il Baby Lars won't achieve his potential, and I agree with posters like Commandant who think this deal could go either way. But with all the mollycoddling precious l'il Lars gets around here, it's nice to read a post that is planted firmly in the opposite camp. :thumbs_up:

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If Larry sucks again in 204-15 regular season, I will rethink my 'all-in' on the Lars bandwagon. But, still $3.5m isn't a cap killer and how much worse could he play, unless he Hockey IQ just isn't there, he has all the skills/skating/size to be a solid 2 way centre.

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Ha ha, I love this post, especially the last bit. :lol:

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you...I think it's too soon to say that L'il Baby Lars won't achieve his potential, and I agree with posters like Commandant who think this deal could go either way. But with all the mollycoddling precious l'il Lars gets around here, it's nice to read a post that is planted firmly in the opposite camp. :thumbs_up:

Going back to Moen, my concern about third liners on long term deals is that they eventually get passed on the depth chart. De La Rose looks great. Many here are high on Hudon. I would have preferred a 2 year deal. We could have waited on this one. Like Emelin, my dad had a good observation that we are negotiating against ourselves.

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If Larry sucks again in 204-15 regular season, I will rethink my 'all-in' on the Lars bandwagon. But, still $3.5m isn't a cap killer and how much worse could he play, unless he Hockey IQ just isn't there, he has all the skills/skating/size to be a solid 2 way centre.

3.5 isn't crushing, but if he plateaus at where he was last season, it will still be a significant overpay; and eventually all the guys who currently carry non-stop chubbies for this 26-point mediocrity will turn on him with all the ferocity for which Montreal fans are known. This contract will be a little case study in the risks and rewards of signing young-ish guys to money and term based on potential rather than actual performance.

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as dlbalr pointed out, the odds of a Eller, even of last year production, getting less then 3-4m in couple years as a UFA is slim.

Bourque $3,3 from a long time ago is a bit worse and Bourque isn't a centre nor PK guy.

Again, I am very biased and think we will se it as Pacioretty's is, a very good value contract.

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There is no way last year's Lars Eller gets $4 mil at age 27. By that time, if he doesn't improve, he will be irreversibly established as a bottom-6 non-entity in the league. Try $2 mil, if he's lucky. Bourque was signed as a 30-goal scorer, something Lars have never come close to approaching. I just don't know what planet some people are living on that they think GMs will be panting to throw substantial dollars at that doofus once the glow of his "potential" has decisively worn off.

I was saying before this contract that next year will be pivotal for L'il Baby Larry, and that goes double now that he's getting paid for potential. No more excuses: you're getting paid like a man, now man up.

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Did you think that Pouliot would have got the term and years he did as a UFA?

By year 3, at worst Eller will be a tradeable asset. At best a bargain.

This is a guy who has struggled with confidence and is not the lazy ass disinterested player Bourque was even when he was putting up 20+ goals for Calgary.

There is no way last year's Lars Eller gets $4 mil at age 27. By that time, if he doesn't improve, he will be irreversibly established as a bottom-6 non-entity in the league. Try $2 mil, if he's lucky. Bourque was signed as a 30-goal scorer, something Lars have never come close to approaching. I just don't know what planet some people are living on that they think GMs will be panting to throw substantial dollars at that doofus once the glow of his "potential" has decisively worn off.

I was saying before this contract that next year will be pivotal for L'il Baby Larry, and that goes double now that he's getting paid for potential. No more excuses: you're getting paid like a man, now man up.

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Guest Stogey24

The first time Bourque even put up 20 goals he was 27 years old... It takes some players longer to figure their shit out. 25 is damn young, which is the reason Eller got 4 years.

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Jury is clearly still out on this one. Like a lot of people, I see the potential - and like most people I still wonder why his potential isn't translating to better numbers already.

This thread should clearly be revived in two years.

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This may not be the best deal but it sure isn't a terrible one either. I think that there is a better chance that he DOES live up to the contract then he doesn't.

When looking at some comparables, it could be considered a bad deal compared to Zucarello, Desharnais, Turis, Palat and Tyler Johnson who all got similar deals and who have all put up at least 50 points in a season.

The deal is also similar to comparables such as Stoll, Berglund and Josh Baily, none of whome recorded 50 points last season (Baily had most with 38).

If Eller scores between 25 and 35 points next season it will be along the lines of the latter 3 players I mentioned so you can't say the deal is horrible, especially with the cap moving up (ie. Kane / Teows)

On the other hand, I would not be supprised to see Eller hit 50 points next season and I would be shocked if he didn't do it at least once over the course on the deal.

I have a hard time imagining Eller having a less productive season this year than he did last so even if he does not improve, its not the end of the world. If he scores at a pace of the lockout shortened season (30 pts in 46 games) that would give him 53 points in a full season and he would be on par with the first group of comparables I mentioned. Don't forget that Lars had the best faceoff percentage on the team. If Eller is the 40-55 point player that I think he will be this deal will be a steal in the latter years of the contract. If he has hit his plateau, then it's not great but not terrible either. As fans we do not have access to a lot of the information GMs do and if MB says he is a character guy who works hard then that's good enough for me.

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Good to pause for a moment and realize the fact that an 80...count 'em....EIGHTY game regular season is absolutely insane in a game with the intensity and challenge of hockey.

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What worries me is that Larry is a bit of a head case. If he is pressured to produce and doesn't, I can see slumping and poor performance in his future. I hope this wasn't a mistake.

Agreed. I REALLY hope he gets his act together next year. Earlier I said it would take 50 points from Eller for the city to be satisfied, but at this point, I think we'd all be happy with 40-45 points.

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So what do Gallagher and Galchenyuk get next year? Has the bar been set at $3.5M/year for them too?

It shouldn't be set there right now. Eller is coming off his bridge deal while Gallagher and Galchenyuk will be coming off their entry-level deals (and thus have no arbitration rights/leverage). Gallagher might come in around there if he has another good year but Galchenyuk should be cheaper unless he has a breakout season in 2014-15.

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Agreed. I REALLY hope he gets his act together next year. Earlier I said it would take 50 points from Eller for the city to be satisfied, but at this point, I think we'd all be happy with 40-45 points.

There is no way Eller is crossing the 50 point threshold without PP time.

The one odd thing about DD and Eller last season is that DD was a road warrior and Eller was a home warrior. Eller only had three points less than DD in the regular season at home but DD had a whopping 33 points on the road, more than Eller had altogether. Let me put it this way, Eller had only two points more than Gorges on the road.

Eller's scoring at home was around where we wanted it and had he replicated that scoring on the road, we wouldn't be complaining about his season. Something about Eller on the road he just isn't the same player. His last road point in the playoffs was game one against the Bruins.

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