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Alexander Semin on waivers


dlbalr

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Like Carr, Andrighetto scored on his 1st shot in NHL, but this year he is getting much more icetime and shooting more.

3 pts 12shots in 12gms 9:24toi/gm

3 pts 12shots in 7 gms 12:26 this year

And possibly will get his most icetime today (but we all know Habs unlikely to end game with same 4 line combos)

If he, Thomas (who has a nice shot) and Carr shoot the puck every chance they get, they should do well.

Ovi and Pacioretty score often partly because they fire so many pucks on net and guys like Tarasenko (99shots) I think score more than a Galchenuk (52) partly because they have a more accurate shot (a ton more icetime also helps)

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So what's the cap hit 300k or something?

Once this is done, the remaining cap hit will be zero. They have been charged $368,279.57 thus far (and with the release coming tomorrow, it will stay at that number). (62 days at full cap hit, 2 days at the reduced $150,000 hit.)

Shameless plug, that's the type of stuff that can be found on my Cap Sheet. Look under Cost to Date.

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  • 1 month later...

Interesting view point on Semin:

Not my words this is a quote

"MINUS: In preparation for my job as punching bag for aggressive and bored failed jocks, I have to read a lot of hockey articles and listen to a lot of sports radio.

This week, I must have heard some version of "Well the advanced stats guys love him" while the hosts/writer went on to rip on a player, decision or idea. It's no wonder people in general are so hostile to new ideas when the guys whose media positions give them some authority, won't take the time to learn about what they make fun of.

Let's take Alex Semin for example. According to whoever I was listening to on the radio the other day, you could "tell he was done," just by looking.

And yet, in the 15 games he played before he was cut, he put up the sixth most points/60 on the Canadiens, and while he was on the ice, the Habs had the puck 55% of the time (an elite possession rating).

Oh, and since he left, they're 5-16.

Now here are the facts: When Semin played, they won games. When Semin was on the ice, they had the puck more than they didn't, and he scored at a rate that is acceptable for a top six forward.

Alex Semin put up roughly the same scoring and possession rates as Jonathan Toews is so far this year, and he's out of the league.

That's "best all round player in the world" Jonathan Toews. Now, don't confuse what I am saying: I know full well there are other aspects to the game and that Toews and Semin are not the same. But, the comparison is just. Semin was playing better than OK and did not deserve to be cut.

The fact is, the Canadiens made a mistake. I don't want to imply their downward spiral is because of cutting Semin, but it sure as hell didn't help. The idea that this "advanced stats" stuff is without merit is, at this point, laughable.

Like, what is the argument against Semin? He FACTUALLY scored enough to keep his job. He FACTUALLY played good enough defense to keep his job. And he lost it because people (NHL management included) are not critical thinkers and they make decisions based on reputation and, if given the choice, will always make the easiest decision.

Semin was an easy target and yet, he was cheaper and better than most players on the team that cut him. And yet, anyone who tries to mention this gets called an idiot or worse."

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1 goal in 15 games is factually enough to keep his job? Wonder if that guy would say that if he played for Arizona (the above was from an Arizona blogger for HockeyBuzz)... The flip side of his argument:

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Semin did nothing to keep his job. The entire argument hinges on the fact that he was around when we were winning. Well, we won with PAP and Briere too. Hell, we won with Bournival. Correlation does not imply causality. He scored one goal for us. 7 goals in his last 72 NHL games. Carolina didn't want him. Nobody wanted him even for free; that's to say 30 NHL teams preferred to keep ANYONE on their roster rather than Semin. Carr, who took his spot, is a much better player, and much younger, and has scored five times as many goals in as many games for us. I find it amusing that many fans simultaneously bitch that the Habs (supposedly) can't develop young players and never give them a chance, and then also moan that we dumped a 31-year-old has-been to give his spot to a young guy. SEMIN IS NOTHING. Get over it.

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So let's say most of the argument on one side of things is based on the fact that we were winning with Semin in the lineup. On the other side of things, much of the argument relies on Carr being the comparable player since we started losing. That's something I've been accepting of, but it also came out of thin air. The main problem is that while we were winning, Semin was on the second line whereas Carr usually finds himself on the third line. It's fine to say that Carr is producing more than Semin anyway, but what about other players we can compare Semin to? Why couldn't we have been a team with both Carr and Semin in the lineup? Perhaps having Semin in the lineup balanced the lines out and allowed other players to play closer to their actual roles. Now we have a missing piece even if Semin was not the correct piece himself. Come playoff time I strongly doubt that Carr is someone that becomes relied on by Therrien in his first NHL professional year. The unfortunate reality is that even though he was a veteran, Semin would not have been trusted by Therrien either. This is probably why some think he wasn't give a fair shot, simply because of Therrien's mentality towards him. It's clear as day that correlation does not prove causation here either. One could argue that Semin was clearly washed up. On the other side of things however, one could argue that clearly he was not placed in a position to succeed for very long. The writing was on the wall very early.

Scenario A: Semin was washed up and Therrien saw this so he placed him in the press box/took him off the second line.

Scenario B: Semin got off to a rough start and then looked washed up because he was placed in a tough situation and not placed in a position to succeed.

People act like either one of those are facts when in reality at the very least one of them is not. Quote Carolina all you want but they were a terrible team and their leading scorer had 23 goals. Semin was also injured for a quarter of the season.

Now I love Dale Weise but we're all entitled to our own opinion and if you ask me who I'd rather on the second line between Semin and Weise, I would have to go with Semin. That's just a personal preference for some of the reasons I listed here. Weise is actually the current player on the supposed second line and I don't think he is fit for that role...Maybe in the playoffs he might be. Give me one good reason Fleischmann should be on the team over Semin (and I like Flash). The list goes on....

From everything I've read, even those on the positive side of the Semin fence are very caution in their expectation of what he could have brought. Those on the other side, however, have this set in stone mentality that it was impossible for Semin to have ever done anything productive. That's just a matter of opinion. I definitely am over it but as a very patient person, unlike usual I am expectant of a move by the deadline.

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Here is the issue with Semin's corsi.

You can't look at corsi in a vaccuum. It must be balanced with other stats.

How about SCF% (scoring chance for %)

Well when we look at semin that was awful.

Why? Cause in 10 games he may have had a great corsi (high number of shot attempts) but only 1 shot attempt from the slot.

So you can look at the numbers, but you have to dig deeper, and if the writer of that piece didn't do that, he is as ignorant in as the radio hosts he complained about.

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So let's say most of the argument on one side of things is based on the fact that we were winning with Semin in the lineup. On the other side of things, much of the argument relies on Carr being the comparable player since we started losing. That's something I've been accepting of, but it also came out of thin air. The main problem is that while we were winning, Semin was on the second line whereas Carr usually finds himself on the third line. It's fine to say that Carr is producing more than Semin anyway, but what about other players we can compare Semin to? Why couldn't we have been a team with both Carr and Semin in the lineup? Perhaps having Semin in the lineup balanced the lines out and allowed other players to play closer to their actual roles. Now we have a missing piece even if Semin was not the correct piece himself. Come playoff time I strongly doubt that Carr is someone that becomes relied on by Therrien in his first NHL professional year. The unfortunate reality is that even though he was a veteran, Semin would not have been trusted by Therrien either. This is probably why some think he wasn't give a fair shot, simply because of Therrien's mentality towards him. It's clear as day that correlation does not prove causation here either. One could argue that Semin was clearly washed up. On the other side of things however, one could argue that clearly he was not placed in a position to succeed for very long. The writing was on the wall very early.

Scenario A: Semin was washed up and Therrien saw this so he placed him in the press box/took him off the second line.

Scenario B: Semin got off to a rough start and then looked washed up because he was placed in a tough situation and not placed in a position to succeed.

People act like either one of those are facts when in reality at the very least one of them is not. Quote Carolina all you want but they were a terrible team and their leading scorer had 23 goals. Semin was also injured for a quarter of the season.

Now I love Dale Weise but we're all entitled to our own opinion and if you ask me who I'd rather on the second line between Semin and Weise, I would have to go with Semin. That's just a personal preference for some of the reasons I listed here. Weise is actually the current player on the supposed second line and I don't think he is fit for that role...Maybe in the playoffs he might be. Give me one good reason Fleischmann should be on the team over Semin (and I like Flash). The list goes on....

From everything I've read, even those on the positive side of the Semin fence are very caution in their expectation of what he could have brought. Those on the other side, however, have this set in stone mentality that it was impossible for Semin to have ever done anything productive. That's just a matter of opinion. I definitely am over it but as a very patient person, unlike usual I am expectant of a move by the deadline.

A great, well thought out post. Personally I didn't agree with the Semin cut and I think it was unheard of for a team that was around 1st in the entire league to just ship out a player for nothing that they just signed. What did they expect to get from him? A point a game? He is what he is, an enigmatic offensive player. They didn't sign him to back check and kill penalties. They had a hole in the top 6 and needed someone to play that role. He was there, he played the games they asked him to, and the team was winning. What was the problem again? What was the disconnect from when he was signed for a bargain price in the offseason till he was cut? Did MB and MT think they were slick and signed a 40 goal man for peanuts? Let the offensive players do what they do and let the defensive guys do what they do. If you don't like the way he plays you shouldn't have signed him in the first place and should have filled that HOLE with a player that can provide what it is you want. Good luck filling it at that price though.

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Great posts guys...

The utilized strategy didn't work, we still have gaping holes in the top 6, we have slid to the bottom of the playoff picture, and now we can't score, that's the bottom line.

Need more Semin's in the top 6 instead of Weise's, no matter how you rationalize it out.

Maybe Bergevin knows/knew all along that Price is out for the season, and he is just roster/cap adjusting for next season, as he semi tanks the team for higher draft picks, while assessing players like Carr etc?

If I were him, and knew Price was done for the year, that's exactly what I would have done...not rebuild, but regroup.

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No, we don't need more Semins in the top-6. What you really mean is, 'we need more legitimate top-6 FW in the top-6.' And that I completely agree with (who doesn't?).

Indeed, this whole futile 'Semin' debate may ultimately be little more than a proxy for venting about the team's inability to acquire that top-6 FW. Unfortunately this way of going about it is predicated on the sheer delusion of pretending that the Semin of 2015-16 is a top-6 FW. This premise is what makes it one of the most pointless discussions I've been involved with on this site. Carr is better than Semin. The end.

'Not rebuild, but regroup' - good line, and it may well be exactly what MB has in mind.

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No, we don't need more Semins in the top-6. What you really mean is, 'we need more legitimate top-6 FW in the top-6.' And that I completely agree with (who doesn't?).

Indeed, this whole futile 'Semin' debate may ultimately be little more than a proxy for venting about the team's inability to acquire that top-6 FW. Unfortunately this way of going about it is predicated on the sheer delusion of pretending that the Semin of 2015-16 is a top-6 FW. This premise is what makes it one of the most pointless discussions I've been involved with on this site. Carr is better than Semin. The end.

'Not rebuild, but regroup' - good line, and it may well be exactly what MB has in mind.

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I guess the problem I have wasn't how Semin was performing, it was more so the lack of plan by Bergevin. He identified a weakness on the wing so he signed him to play that position. Then just tossed him aside without any direction to fill that already identified hole. He basically just kept throwing AHLers in there until something half worked. Well there wasn't any real need to do that because the team was winning. Rather than a revolving door of Andrighetto, Carr, Holloway, Hudon and Byron, the team could have stayed the way it was. Having moving pieces up and down the lineup constantly can negatively affect the chemistry of the team. And here we are. Singling out Carr as being better than Semin (which is debatable on it's own) is only one part of the whole picture. You can't just say player A is better than player B, therefore the team is better. And last I checked it was Weise playing on the second line, not Carr. We need Weise on the 3rd or 4th line in order to be a contending team.

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No, we don't need more Semins in the top-6. What you really mean is, 'we need more legitimate top-6 FW in the top-6.' And that I completely agree with (who doesn't?).

Indeed, this whole futile 'Semin' debate may ultimately be little more than a proxy for venting about the team's inability to acquire that top-6 FW. Unfortunately this way of going about it is predicated on the sheer delusion of pretending that the Semin of 2015-16 is a top-6 FW. This premise is what makes it one of the most pointless discussions I've been involved with on this site. Carr is better than Semin. The end.

'Not rebuild, but regroup' - good line, and it may well be exactly what MB has in mind.

Let's be honest, the discussion is pointless to you because of your own personal opinion of Semin. A certain percentage of the fan base thought it was a "meh, whatever" move in the off season and so they just accepted it when he was shown the door a fifth of the way through the season because they had similar expectations about his potential or lack thereof in the first place. There's not much more that needs to be said on either side but behind Price's injury, I think the handling of this situation is the second most important reason as to why we're struggling as much as we have been. 29 other teams passed up on Semin when he was on waivers? Well guess what, we've been worse than those other 29 teams since his departure. I guess no one needed him as much as us (semi-sardonic statement). I'm not one to jump on hypotheticals but if we're going to hypothetically say that Semin was guaranteed to be beyond a bust for reasons outside of the coach's handling of him had he remained here for the full year, then I'm going to hypothetically say that I guarantee that our record would be better right now had we never let him go. What a bold prediction. That seems like enough of a reason to me for this to be a topic of discussion. The timing of the move as well as the lack of a plan behind the move were stupid decisions no matter which angle you look at it.

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He was around longer than I would of liked, if you mean he should of been shown the door earlier I agree, but otherwise disagree 100%.

What plan was called for or when was smart timing to demote the washed up lazy player?

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Andrighetto is just a youngster and likely has a future in NHL, Semin was on his last legs, is slower skater than Douglas Murray and any NHLer would win a puck battle (or fight) with Semin.

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Although on the other side of things, people complain that DD is played to much, and his biggest asset is offense. Even his biggest supporters know he's not the best grinder or playing defensively. So I'm not sure that bias against scorers in favour of grinders is entirely true.

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