dlbalr Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Our annual August series is well underway as we project the Habs' stats for the upcoming season. Here are the players covered so far: David Desharnais Lars Eller Alex Galchenyuk Brendan Gallagher Zack Kassian Max Pacioretty Tomas Plekanec Carey Price P.K. Subban Do you agree/disagree with our assessments? Who would you like to see covered next? And what are your point projections for the players? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 I think the projections are spot on so far, and I'd like to see one for Eller! He's possibly a little less predictable. Kassian and semin would also be tough ones to project Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWO4LIFE Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 They are very good however the main players are easier to predict then the lesser ones . Dale Weise had a career year points wise for example. The short time he was on the first line he did produce some points. I will give an example Torry Mitchell my guess is 2 goals and 8 assist. Lars Eller is a good choice also. It all depends if he gets power play time. I think he should with all the struggles they had last year he is a bigger body with decent hands he should be in the middle more often then he is. Lars could reach 20 goals and 20 assist. However if he gets no power play time he is more of a 13 goals 13 assist kind of guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think the projections are spot on so far, and I'd like to see one for Eller! He's possibly a little less predictable. Kassian and semin would also be tough ones to project Ask and ye shall receive: http://www.habsworld.net/2015/08/fantasy-focus-lars-eller-3/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Eller's icetime got upped in playoffs and I think trend will continue and 20g season is coming up for Larry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 Eller's icetime got upped in playoffs and I think trend will continue and 20g season is coming up for Larry. While his ice time did go up a bit (30 seconds/game, or 12 minutes total), a decent chunk of that is attributed to the fact that the average postseason game (roughly 62:40) was longer than the average regular season game (roughly 60:45) rather than him being used more. Of that extra 23 minutes or so of playing time (1:55 x 12 playoff games), Eller would have played around 25% of that, or about 6 minutes, which is half of his extra TOI there. So in reality, his ice time in the playoffs went up about 15 seconds a night relative to his regular season usage which isn't much. Actually, his 2014-15 postseason ATOI was just about equal (if not equal, it's within seconds) to his 2013-14 regular season ATOI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 DD played 17:14 in reg season Eller played 15:29 in playoffs DD played 16:14 Eller played 15:59 Which is what I like and we will see him move up pecking order this year. And Eller even had 0:07 more PP time/gm in playoffs. Baby steps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Ask and ye shall receive: http://www.habsworld.net/2015/08/fantasy-focus-lars-eller-3/ Finding it quite funny that I listed Eller, then Kassian and they were the next two up Semin next I suppose hahah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Also nice subliminal 69 on the picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 Finding it quite funny that I listed Eller, then Kassian and they were the next two up Semin next I suppose hahah Kassian had been in the works for a while so I knew that one was close. Semin won't be until later though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stogey24 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 My predictions have been ass backwards with some of this teams prospects, but I'm calling a breakout season for Kassian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 My predictions have been ass backwards with some of this teams prospects, but I'm calling a breakout season for Kassian I've watched him since junior. He has the talent to break out. It's all about focus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Kassian could well break out, but the write-up is based on probabilities, which are in turn rooted in past patterns. Based on past performance, we should not expect much from Kassian. The write-up on Eller posited that he is a 'better than average' third-line C. Is this indeed the case? I see him as excruciatingly average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stogey24 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Hopefully this team sets Kassian on the right track. How huge would another 20 20 guy be for this team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 The write-up on Eller posited that he is a 'better than average' third-line C. Is this indeed the case? I see him as excruciatingly average.His even strength offence is upper tier for a third line centre but nothing special. I question his actual defensive capabilities beyond penalty kill. HERO indicates he doesn't make his teammates better than your average third liner by offence or defence.He's not much better than John Mitchell in Colorado, but far more talked about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Hopefully this team sets Kassian on the right track. How huge would another 20 20 guy be for this team Yes, if Kassian does play up to potential, we will have pulled off one of the best Habs trades in years - a lesser version of the Courtnall-Kordic atrocity (not that Prust is equivalent to Kordic - he's a much better player than that). Machine, good post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 To play up to his potential, same goes for Pelly, Eller & Weise, he will need to be given the icetime and the offensive opportunity to produce. And is only so much icetime to go around; but, might create good competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stogey24 Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 I could see Smith Pelly going in a trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Even Strength Points: Weise: 29 in 79 Eller: 23 in 77 Smith-Pelly: 17 in 64 (Anaheim and Montreal) Kassian: 15 in 42 (Vancouver) Weise played every line and a lot of his points came when he was positioned with Pacioretty. Eller played mostly third line but tends to score a lot when Subban is on the ice. Smith-Pelly was everywhere in the Anaheim lineup, only 3 points in Montreal (once again everywhere) Kassian played a lot of third line with Shawn Matthias until he had a stint with the Sedin's where he was white hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 The write-up on Eller posited that he is a 'better than average' third-line C. Is this indeed the case? I see him as excruciatingly average. I've always looked at Eller as someone who probably isn't good enough for a top six role but is a great fit as a #3. Offensively, he's good enough to be in the upper tier of 3rd line C's. Defensively, he's trusted enough to log regular PK minutes and matches up at least decently as a second two-way/defensive unit. He also has made strides at the faceoff dot and has the size to match up against bigger centres, something that can't be said for any other Montreal C. For me, Eller is a jack of all trades, master of none type of third liner. To have that type of flexibility is a premium in my opinion and a quick glance at other third line C's around the league suggests that there aren't too many other teams that can say that. Depending on injuries/matchups, you can use him in an offensive or defensive role without him becoming a liability. For a lot of other 3rd line C's around the league, it's a one or the other type of proposition and if teams use them in the opposite role, they'll struggle. Look at Montreal's alternative 3rd line centres, the ones mentioned in the article - Mitchell and de la Rose. They're only helping on one aspect, you're not getting anything much offensively from them and asking them to do so is asking for trouble. Statistically speaking, you can make a strong case that Eller is a more average, run of the mill third line C. But I'm a big fan of his two-way ability which pushes him into the upper echelon in my book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The write-up on Eller posited that he is a 'better than average' third-line C. Is this indeed the case? I see him as excruciatingly average.Eller is not as good as some people say, but I also think he is not as bad as you sometimes think as well. Eller is one of the few forwards with the patience and ability to collect the puck in his own zone, Skate it through three zones and generate a very strong cycle game in the offensive zone. He seems offensively inept most of the time, so I agree with a lot of your comments, but he seems like a beast at holding onto the puck and cycling, as well as skating the puck out against strong forechecking teams. I would rank him as a strong third liner as well. I just don't see a top 6 upside with him. Ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 So you are fine with Desharnais and Plekanec as top 2 centres? Statistically Eller was 2nd best centre in 2012-13 and (say again) I got a feeling he will be #2 again this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 So you are fine with Desharnais and Plekanec as top 2 centres? Statistically Eller was 2nd best centre in 2012-13 and (say again) I got a feeling he will be #2 again this year. It's not a question of whether or not I'm fine with it but rather what I think will happen. If Galchenyuk moves to centre, one of the three centres has to shift to the wing. Plekanec probably won't as he has been leaned on heavily as the team's de facto #1 for a long time now. If Eller moves, Desharnais drops to the third line. He's not an ideal third line centre, he's lacking the defensive capability to be a secondary checker and the Habs don't have the personnel to roll three offensive lines. (That is, unless Kassian and Smith-Pelly both have big years.) That would seem to preclude Desharnais from dropping down, at least in the early going; accordingly, it makes him the candidate to move to the wing. That leaves Eller at #3 C. If Galchenyuk stays on the wing, the same two arguments apply to keep the status quo. Eller is a safety net for Therrien and the coaches. He has held the #3 C role for several years now - including 2012-13 where he was third in ATOI by a sizable amount despite his production. He didn't have a good enough year last season/postseason to send the message that he's ready to take the next step and that he's knocking on the door so I can't see the coaching staff having the feeling that they have to move him up. He could force their hand as the season progresses but heading into camp, to me it seems likely that Eller stays on that third line no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Much of Eller's increased production in 12-13 came from an increase in secondary assists. It was a mirage fans are still clinging to this day. That said, I want DD on his left wing while Galchenyuk moves to the middle to centre the second line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 15g last year with no PP time nor top six wingers, while being solid defensively is what I want to see Eller build on. Yes and I heard the same thing about Habs finishing 4th in the NHL in 12-13, just a 1/2 season mirage and will fall back to earth next year. Which also was just BS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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