dlbalr Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Is there any scenario where MB will just say that's enough, and trade him? Say after arbitration if it happens? What would happen if the return was just too good to pass up? I certainly hope not, but stranger things have happened.... If there is a scenario where they ponder trading him, it would have to be before the arbitration hearing. Once he gets his award, his trade value will drop as he'll become one year away from UFA. If they were to deal him in advance of the hearing, the acquiring team would still have some time to lock him up long-term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 That sounds like a good assessment. You only have to remember that shot of him leaping ecstatically into Bergevin's arms after Game 7 against Those ######ers Boston to recognize that this guy is able to distinguish between driving a hard bargain in a contract negotiation and loving an organization. PK seems to have a lot of clarity about who and what he is and to be very flinty-eyed about his special talent and what it means. He has also had people, all his life, deny that he is indeed special, and he - rightly - knows they are full of crap. So when a GM tried to lowball him on a contract he is not going to let it pass. The following link contains what is probably the best piece ever written on this extraordinary hockey player: http://www.thestar.com/news/ken_dryden_canada_day/2014/06/30/pk_subban_nothing_was_going_to_deter_me.htmlhttp://www.thestar.com/news/ken_dryden_canada_day/2014/06/30/pk_subban_nothing_was_going_to_deter_me.html WOW! That has got to be one of the best articles I've ever read! I think PK might be ready for the "C". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 What are most likely deals? either 2year at $10m or 7year at $9m? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Subban will mot get less than $6.5m from arbitration. Most likely $7m. What are most likely deals? either 2year at $10m or 7year at $9m? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 What are most likely deals? either 2year at $10m or 7year at $9m? It won't be a two year deal. It's Montreal's decision to go one or two years and they would be absolutely nuts to pick two to take Subban to UFA. My guess is that a one year contract would start with a 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 So either a one year deal (not likely going to leave it up to arbitrator, or would $7-8m would be likely award figure?), or a very long term contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 So either a one year deal (not likely going to leave it up to arbitrator, or would $7-8m would be likely award figure?), or a very long term contract. It BETTER be the latter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So either a one year deal (not likely going to leave it up to arbitrator, or would $7-8m would be likely award figure?), or a very long term contract. If it's a one year deal, I suspect it'll go all the way through arbitration. The only way a deal gets done before the hearing is if it's long-term. My guess is that they're not even discussing a short-term contract in their negotiations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Agreed. I also think that Subban's agent will start negotiations at around $10.5m and really can't seeing them agreeing to anything under $9m. If it's a one year deal, I suspect it'll go all the way through arbitration. The only way a deal gets done before the hearing is if it's long-term. My guess is that they're not even discussing a short-term contract in their negotiations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 thanks again sir. With my ignorance of contract stuff and not a strong feeling one way or other, I am more curious than really care what it ends up being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Pure speculation on my part but the more I think of it, the more I think Subban is going to sign a medium-term deal. Why? Any multi-year deal before arbitration will be at least two years, that term is stupid as it takes him to UFA. A three year one isn't much better as it only buys out one UFA year. On the other side, given the expected boost in the cap, I could see Meehan pursuing an AAV in low double-digits on a 7-8 year deal which I expect will (rightfully) be too much for the Habs' liking. That opens up a 4-6 year term. Both sides give on something - management on seeking the longest term possible (thereby allowing Subban to get UFA eligibility sooner) and Subban/Meehan on the dollar value per season. Arbitration time is often 'compromise season' and this would be an example of just that. I'm not saying that's what going to happen but I won't be surprised if it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEWATER77 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 say that subbans srbitration case rules on a 2 year, 7.5 per contract..does that necessarily mean that mb will have to trade him within 2 years so we don't lose him to ufa? and, will he not bring a huge return because every team will know they can just wait out his deal, and not give up the house for him in a trade? man, im stressing again, and the season isn't even started Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 There was a lot of panic hereabouts when it came to Markov's second-last deal too. I'm not going to start stressing unless there is no deal come the new season, or if the deal fails to lock up PK to significant term. I can see the "medium-term" idea as a possible compromise, but it's not one in which I, as a fan, am very interested; every difficult negotiation with Subban decreases the likelihood of his remaining with us for the next 15 years, as he should. It is frustrating that the Habs can't just lock up this monster talent and let us all move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 The deal will not get done more than 48 hours before the hearing... no way. Neither side is going to blink until the deadline is close. Panicking and worrying about it now is pointless. We've got another week to wait before we hear anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 say that subbans srbitration case rules on a 2 year, 7.5 per contract..does that necessarily mean that mb will have to trade him within 2 years so we don't lose him to ufa? and, will he not bring a huge return because every team will know they can just wait out his deal, and not give up the house for him in a trade? man, im stressing again, and the season isn't even started The arbitrator won't award a two year deal unless the Habs ask for it. It makes no sense for them to do so as you note that he's two years away from UFA. They'll ask for (and receive) a one year award unless they settle beforehand. To answer the hypothetical scenario, they wouldn't have to trade him. Just because a player is a pending UFA doesn't mean that the team has to trade the player. Of course there would be risk in keeping him and potentially losing him for nothing if this were to happen but it's not a given that he has to be traded. There was a lot of panic hereabouts when it came to Markov's second-last deal too. I'm not going to start stressing unless there is no deal come the new season, or if the deal fails to lock up PK to significant term. I can see the "medium-term" idea as a possible compromise, but it's not one in which I, as a fan, am very interested; every difficult negotiation with Subban decreases the likelihood of his remaining with us for the next 15 years, as he should. It is frustrating that the Habs can't just lock up this monster talent and let us all move on. You won't have to worry about there being no deal come the season. Subban will be signed by noon on August 5th. (The arbitrator has 48 hours after the hearing (Aug. 1) to award a deal, the team has 48 hours after that time on the 3rd to formally sign the deal.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 The deal will not get done more than 48 hours before the hearing... no way. Neither side is going to blink until the deadline is close. Panicking and worrying about it now is pointless. We've got another week to wait before we hear anything. It's stupid, but I agree. Subban has no reason to blink - he'll get a minimum of $6.5M in an arbitration award (Karlsson), more likely will be around $7m and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets as high as $7.5M in arbitration. What makes no sense is the Habs dragging this out even as long as they have. Subban's price is going to go keep going up, not down. Start of last year $64m/8 years, probably would have gotten it done. Now, I can't see him signing for anything less than $9M if it's a long term deal - bridge deal was a brilliant idea! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 SO they have already saved $5m last year and you are arguing he will make $8m more because of bridge deal, what difference does $3-4m make over 8 years with cap rising all the time. He will get a boatload and if is $7 or 8.5/per makes little difference to me, but am leaning towards favouring a longer term deal (not 8 years though, I wouldn't give anyone that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I'd give Subban an 8-year deal, no problem. There is zero reason to doubt that he can be a top-5 NHL defenceman over that entire span. As Habs29 says, excessive caution doesn't pay when it comes to this player - either financially or psychologically. We got our bridge deal, he proved himself in spades, now it's time to stop jerking around and pay up for this unbelievable core piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Players like Subban cost money. Lots of money. Just lock him up at 8/72. They have plenty of cheap pieces for the next 2-3 years where they don't have to quibble over 1-2 million. The era of free agency is over. Core pieces need to be locked up on max deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 just get the deal done dammit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I like what someone said elsewhere: it doesn't matter what you pay your stars. It matters what you pay your depth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Subban is the first Habs since Roy who has the chance to be a HOFer. Look at the last twenty cup winners, I bet you can't find a team without a shoe in to the Hall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEWATER77 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 We got our bridge deal, he proved himself in spades, now it's time to stop jerking around and pay up for this unbelievable core piece. just get the deal done dammit agree 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Unbelievable player, is more like the 25 goals in 37 games guy in Tampa, or even Pavel Bure in his prime. Does Subban show what he may become, sure and he is super at times. And if he could work the PK, defend better, be a leader and hit like a Rob Blake, he would be 'unbelievable' (or more like Larry Robinson). Like I said, he is super at times and I think he could easily be a hall of famer if has a long career, but still 10-15 seasons from that. But don't care, I just don't like 7+ year deal. What is wrong with 6 or 5, that is a frickin long time; 5 x 82 games = a lot of wear and tear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Unbelievable player, is more like the 25 goals in 37 games guy in Tampa, or even Pavel Bure in his prime. Does Subban show what he may become, sure and he is super at times. And if he could work the PK, defend better, be a leader and hit like a Rob Blake, he would be 'unbelievable' (or more like Larry Robinson). Like I said, he is super at times and I think he could easily be a hall of famer if has a long career, but still 10-15 seasons from that. But don't care, I just don't like 7+ year deal. What is wrong with 6 or 5, that is a frickin long time; 5 x 82 games = a lot of wear and tear. nothing but every other tram in the nhl would give him 8 in a heartbeat. I don't like long term deals either but this guy is the exception. have some faith don. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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