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Advanced Stats Bluff?


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This is also why stats like Corsi/Fenwick can be over-valued. Because a lot of those points are dead wrong.

Take the idea of the big stay-at-home defenseman who can't skate and can't make a pass. Well, they CAN be a liability, yes. (See Doug Murray.) However, a guy like Hal Gil was absolutely essential to one Pittsburgh Cup win, they don't even get close to the show that year without him. Despite a few naysayers on this board, who are all dead wrong, Josh Gorges was a great asset to our team, saved us a lot of games, and never lost us a single one, for years.

Likewise, there have been highly successful teams that were entirely built on dump and chase. There have been successful teams built on collapsing into a defensive box and then capitalizing on the first mistake the other team makes. The Habs of 1993 gave opponents GREAT possession stats - they intentionally allowed every opposition rush a single path in at Roy, knowing he'd stop the first shot, and gobbling up the rebound and turning the other way. The Neutral-Zone trapping Devils of the late 90's used a strategy that was terrible for possession stats (for both teams on the ice), and yet they dominated the league in the most boring possible way for years. These are strategies that actively degrade Corsi/Fenwick numbers, but they work.

Corsi/Fenwick show something valuable, but are no more useful as a statistic than +/-. They don't tell a complete story. They undervalue some skills and utterly discount some effective styles/strategies. They are worth looking at, sure, and I actually think they are underused - we should see them more regularly reported on. However the promoters of them tend to push them as the be-all and end-all of hockey stats, and quite frankly, they aren't.

Josh Gorges could start the transition game, and could make a pass. He wasn't close to Doug Murray and was more on the Dennis Seidenberg side of the ledger I talked about above.

You don't have to be a huge point getter, you just have to have some ability with the puck.

As for the way teams were built in the 80s and 90s, coaching strategies have evolved, and today's strategies would beat them. In 5-10 years, someone will come up with something that beats today's strategy too (and the continued work on advanced stats that will happen in the next 5-10 years will probably be part of developing it). Hockey is a constantly evolving game.

Darryl Sutter said it earlier this year. The best way to play defence is no longer shadowing players, trapping, or blocking lots of shots. That is the past. The way he teaches his team to play defence is to control the puck down low in the offensive zone. Worked great for the Kings, and it was the exact way of playing that worked great for Team Canada at the Olympics.

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fighter/hockey player is a huge difference than a goon...that's why we'd have to trade something for those types. ok, I may have lauded mcG a bit high, but chris neil won't come cheap ill guarantee that

Yes I agree.... I have no problem with a tough hockey player. I don't see Ottawa trading us Neil though anyways (not in the same division).

We do have Prust in that fighter/hockey player roll, and even though he isn't a true heavyweight he doesn't back down from anyone.

That said, he's injured so much we could probably use another. Tinordi could fill that roll at times, and we'll see how Moen does after his concussion.

The thing is most teams around the league are going this route. The Leafs are signing a real bottom 6 and we'll see far less Orr/McLaren from them, the Bruins let thornton go. Its a growing trend.

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Tinordi can skate (for a big man) and pass.

Sorry, dont think he would be an appropriate d-prospect, by your standards or description.

He is a defensive d-man period.

His puck skills are minimal at best. Why do you say he can pass well? Sure he has better puckskill/skating than Hal Gill; but worse than even a Gorges.

So if you take away his size, shot blocking, leadership and intimidation, there is little else, that even is close to what a Pateryn/Bennett/Dietz/Thrower have for puck skill.

But, I want to see to see him, over a Beaulieu, in the starting lineup, no question. Even if some stats say Beaulieu is more important type d-man to aid in winning (which they would no doubt).

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Chris Neil is all done. He's been in the league since the late 90's.

Enough with the over the hill tough guys. How many of those have we seen since Brashear?

From:

Dave Manson

Mick Vukota

All the way to:

George Parros

Montreal fans would have a higher opinion of Goonery if we had one in his prime.

Bergevin is committed to the cause. He's on the lookout for a future goon, carrying a glass slipper to all of the Junior hockey games in Canada.

Crisp, Nevins, McCarron, Imonji (?) and most of the tryouts have been tough guys. Bergevin and Therrien like tough hockey, at the right price.

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Sorry, dont think he would be an appropriate d-prospect, by your standards or description.

He is a defensive d-man period.

His puck skills are minimal at best. Why do you say he can pass well? Sure he has better puckskill/skating than Hal Gill; but worse than even a Gorges.

So if you take away his size, shot blocking, leadership and intimidation, there is little else, that even is close to what a Pateryn/Bennett/Dietz/Thrower have for puck skill.

But, I want to see to see him, over a Beaulieu, in the starting lineup, no question. Even if some stats say Beaulieu is more important type d-man to aid in winning (which they would no doubt).

Tinordi would be no different to a Matt Greene on the Kings. Greene is a defensive defenceman and got plenty of minutes on the Kings in the playoffs. The Kings have a tendency to shelter him a bit from his zone starts but all of his stats suggest he is a benefit to their blueline instead of a detriment.

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LM:

You mean like a McCracken or Ogilthorp in his prime! Fun times, if like slapstick comedy, which I do! But also liked Morgana the Kissing Bandit, got a chuckle out of drunk fan taking ball from Brett Favre and running down the field, hecklers at PGA tournaments, Dale Hunter running Pierre Turgeon, scumbag Tie Domi suckering Niedermayer; but is it part of normal game, or should it be?

As we saw with the frickin Hobbit-Smurfs, they just didn't have a chance vs the nasty Colton Orr-Jody Shelley-John Scott-Lucic led teams eh.

And every GM/Coach in the world is fond of players who cant be easily intimidated, sort of a given isn't it, not just Therrien/Bergevin.

But is an advanced stat thread, so I am curious what stat(s) can be used to show the positive value of a goon (in or not in his prime)?

Or is it just like religion and I just gotta have faith that is true (and I am just too blind to see)? :pray:

As a great Canadian Philosopher once said; Rock em Sock em!

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Fights are exciting. Hockey would lose much of it's outlaw image if they were banned. About advanced stats, it seems that it's proponents are determined to turn hockey into a possession filled keep away grab ass fest. (See European Football)

The best, and most important voices on fighting are the players. The players are unanimous in wanting fighting.

Here's an excellent article from Brian Burke on fighting, although the revisionist history stats guys will tell you he hasn't accomplished a thing in thirty years.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2013/10/30/pro-fighting-column/3320245/

If you want to know the value of a goon, I can't tell you. You would have to ask the cadre of smurfs this team has employed over the years. I'm sure they loved being bullied and humiliated so the fans and reporters can take the moral high ground on the fighting debate.

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"Reduced to its simplest truth, fighting is one of the mechanisms that regulates the level of violence in our game. Players who break the rules are held accountable by other players."

The problem with this is it simply magnifies the failure of officiating in the game. Better officiating is what should hold players accountable, not barbarism.

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Loved it!

Hockey is hockey, I love it, have always loved it, and accept the changes that come with new eras. Fights are going to happen as long as the players want it to, it's specific to hockey, the adrenaline level makes it impossible for an altercation to not break out, if you think back when you still produced testosterone, you'd say Awww yeah, I see what ya mean.....

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You can't stop a spontaneous fight. They have happened in all sports. We've seen fights in Nascar, fights in baseball, fights in the pre-fight weigh in's in MMA. But the fact you don't get immediately thrown out of the game is silly. Taking it down a notch, we don't even go to a 4 on 4 after a fight. It's still 5 on 5. Meaning as long as no instigator penalties are handed out, a fight is completely inconsequential. It's a worse delay of game than throwing a puck over the glass but it gets less of a punishment. It's absolutely silly.

If fights led to 4 on 4 hockey and both players got tossed out of the game, you'd still see the occasional fight. You just wouldn't see a scrum every single bloody time a hit looked a little high or a guy got rocked. If you say you support fighting in hockey being as free as it is now, that means you support fights after PK Subban hammers a Brad Marchand.

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Yes...I LOVED watching Tinordi plant that punk: the fact that he demolished him - clearly he has the potential to be an intimidator - and the fact that he barrelled in without a moment's hesitation, none of this "oh, well, I don't really like fighting but I guess I'd better..."

But all that said, the announcers are right. It was a 100% clean check, and it's regrettable that hockey has slipped into this mentality that guys deserve to be beaten up for delivering clean checks. So I loved what Tinordi brought, but disavow the culture that makes that an appropriate reason to beat a guy up.

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Of course fights will happen, but as MoLG says dosent mean instant ejection isn't the appropriate result and sane call by the league, but league sponsers and promotes fighting, so is not going away anytime soon (baring fatality or two).

Testosterone is in NFL/Rugby is same as hockey, not a good argument for dressing thugs who shouldn't be called a pro hockey player.

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we could use a lyle odelein that's for sure. the nasty s.o.b would mentor tinordi good n proper

LOL. I remember my dad saying that about Souray and Komisarek. That didn't work out so well. One has to wonder what might have been with Lucic vs Souray? That would be one hell of a fight in their primes.

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LOL. I remember my dad saying that about Souray and Komisarek. That didn't work out so well. One has to wonder what might have been with Lucic vs Souray? That would be one hell of a fight in their primes.

Don't remind me of Lucic vs. Komisarek. That was THE moment when the Boston rebuild pulled decisively ahead of ours and Gainey Rebuild 1.0 was fundamentally exposed as a fraud. Ugh.

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I truly despise Milan Lucic. I could never cheer for a team that tolerated his sense of on-ice entitlement and his utter lack of any semblance of sportsmanship.

The only reason I would rather have him than Komisarek is so I could trade him away.

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Lucic is still Gallagher's buddy.

Claude Lemieux was more classless than Lucic, wasn't he?

Habs and most teams would jump at chance of getting the Serbian-Canadian.

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