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Lars Eller re-signs, 4 years, $3.5M per year


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Did you think that Pouliot would have got the term and years he did as a UFA?

By year 3, at worst Eller will be a tradeable asset. At best a bargain.

This is a guy who has struggled with confidence and is not the lazy ass disinterested player Bourque was even when he was putting up 20+ goals for Calgary.

Ha ha, you've got me there, with Pouliot. That said, we can all agree that Edmonton are total MORONS for handing that dolt a $4 mil contract. In that sense, it is possible that a 27-year-old version of last season's Eller - one with six seasons of unrelenting mediocrity under his belt - would indeed get a similar offer, but no one in their right minds would say he is "worth" that to anything other than a desperate franchise. Consoling ourselves that we're not somehow overpaying for mediocrity because the Oilers would pay him something in that region seems like pretty delusional thinking to me.

Look at it another way. Josh Gorges was unquestionably a quality defender, signed to a 3.9 million contract that had him overpaid by about a million; and this led directly to him, being shipped out as an unacceptable cap hit. If Eller remains last season's Eller, then we just created a FW version of Josh Gorges, contractually-speaking. Lovett is 100% right that we shouldn't be paying that kind of money to bottom-six mediocrity.

The contract ONLY makes compelling sense in terms of paying for potential.

And I've never denied that Eller could yet achieve this potential. What I deny is that it's self-evident he will. There are just as many grounds for pessimism as optimism. That's what the Eller fanboys don't seem to understand. "Oh, he could put up great numbers if he just got PP time." Right. Why doesn't he get PP time? Because the coaches don't believe he will do as well or better than whomever else IS getting PP time. Because - as with all things Eller - he simply has not EARNED the opportunities people want him to have.

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So let's remember that we're paying him $3.5M. What point totals for a third line C with no PP time would you be happy with Eller at $3.5M?

And be sure to look at NHL scoring for the last three years. Last season only 13 players had 75 points or more. In 2012 only four more players hit the 75 point mark. In 2014, only 10 centers hit the 70 points or more mark, 11 were in the 60-69 point plateau and 18 were in the 50-59 point plateau. In other words, to be a Top 30 center in the league last year in scoring meant you had just 54 points or more. Paul Stastny just made $7M on the market for being a 60 point player.

As a third line center, little to no PP time, playing with the likes of Bourque, Sekac, Weise and Prust, I'd like to see Eller hit between 35 and 40 points. If he does that, and does it fairly consistently (going almost two months without a point is inexcusable), I'm fine with a $3.5M cap hit.

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If Eller becomes a reliable 35-45 point C, good on faceoffs, physical, and defensively responsible and solid night after night (which he is, contrary to all the propaganda, not quite right now), then yeah, the contract is solid value.

Now let's remember reality. The reality is this guy got 26 points and had by FAR the worst +/- on the entire team at -15. Worse than bad old Murray. Much worse than the anchor that is supposedly to blame for his woes, that turd Bourque, who at least had the decency to finish the season about even in that category. So, minimal offence and -15. That's the player he is right now. And 3.5 is clearly an overpay for that guy.

Again: this contract is all about potential, not about actual performance. A number of people have said they cannot believe that Eller "can do any worse" than last season. This seems to imply that he's bound to do better. I don't take this as self-evident at all. (But I don't take it as unlikely either. Like I keep saying, it could go either way, and people who deny this are kidding themselves).

Desharnais is sort of the opposite of Eller: a guy who has made the most of every opportunity he's ever had, whatever his limitations. He is not a passenger. But DD's brain in Eller's body, you've got a stud C who is a core piece for years to come. Put Eller's brain in DD's body, he doesn't even get out of the ECHL.

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I went from the guy harping on Eller all year to the guy defending his contract. Go figure.

It seems like everyone forgets 2013 when looking at Eller, or sees 30 points and forgets that was a lockout year. At his PPG that year, he was a 55 point player.

Again, what do people expect out of $3.5M? On that matter, what do you expect out of Parenteau at $4M? Or Plekanec at $5M? Because it really feels like people are talking about Eller like he's being paid $5M per season. He was our third best scoring forward only two seasons ago.

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I went from the guy harping on Eller all year to the guy defending his contract. Go figure.

It seems like everyone forgets 2013 when looking at Eller, or sees 30 points and forgets that was a lockout year. At his PPG that year, he was a 55 point player.

Again, what do people expect out of $3.5M? On that matter, what do you expect out of Parenteau at $4M? Or Plekanec at $5M? Because it really feels like people are talking about Eller like he's being paid $5M per season. He was our third best scoring forward only two seasons ago.

People want Beaulieu to become the new Markov, so they probably expect 120 pts for Parenteau...

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If he is so 'smart', why dosent DD play as much, or any, PK as Eller does? Takes less smarts to defend I suppose (that is why it normally takes years for d-men to develop)?

And DD gets the most PP time, as well as to play with Gallagher/Vanek and another OK winger. How did Eller do with 2 good wingers? And no one knows how he would do with more PP time, yet.

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Guest Stogey24

If he is so 'smart', why dosent DD play as much, or any, PK as Eller does? Takes less smarts to defend I suppose (that is why it normally takes years for d-men to develop)?

And DD gets the most PP time, as well as to play with Gallagher/Vanek and another OK winger. How did Eller do with 2 good wingers? And no one knows how he would do with more PP time, yet.

You know if Eller was from MTL, his playing situations would have been much different. That's a fact. It's not worth arguing any more though. Time will show Eller's worth.
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Too much money and term. 3-year $10 million would be more manageable if his struggles continue.

But I'm a believer in Eller, and maybe he turned a corner. I remember Pleks going for 40+ game slumps at around the same age. Maybe the cap hit will look great for his prime years.

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3.5 cap hit aint gonna get bigger over the 4 years, not a huge risk is it? Especially if you believe, or have a bit of faith that Larry will chip in more offense. He seems to be too hard a worker to be a total flop? And he is prototypical power centre, who may only lack confidence or high hockey IQ (or 2 solid wingers?)?

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These are the days in the NHL where a GM has to gamble a bit, and pay a bit for the potential of the player, in a longer term contract.

Maybe Bergevin is just gambling a bit, on the "devil he knows".

If Eller takes off and does well, it's great, and even if he doesn't become that 1p PG player, it's still not a cap crippling deal.....

He has the tools, now just need to put it together, and I think he can.

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These are the days in the NHL where a GM has to gamble a bit, and pay a bit for the potential of the player, in a longer term contract.

Maybe Bergevin is just gambling a bit, on the "devil he knows".

If Eller takes off and does well, it's great, and even if he doesn't become that 1p PG player, it's still not a cap crippling deal.....

He has the tools, now just need to put it together, and I think he can.

If Lars plays like he can, and has shown glimpses of then this is one hell of a good contract. If he continues on as he has, he will be the mos hated Hab on the team. God I hope he plays like he can.

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Maybe I'm too high on Eller but man I can't believe some of the crazy negativity some have about him. To call him marginal top nine is a pretty rough statement. I think the reason I like him is because I never feel like Lars is a floater. I see him working hard, I believe that the finish will come. I'm happy that management has the same hopes as I do about him. This contract is not going to be an albatross

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Agree.

Will it likely be Sekac-Eller-Bourque as 3rd line? Would prefer Andrighetto over Bourque, but Bourque wont be scratched for 1st game (sorry to say).

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