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Annual Habs Top Shelf Prospect Report


Commandant

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Over 4000 words (And that was without re-writing the Sergachev and Lehkonen reports, but linking to ones done at the end of the season).... this is pretty in depth and took a long time to write.

Hope you enjoy.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/06/tsp-montreal-canadiens-prospects-3/

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Guest Stogey24

Wonder if Scherbak is matching Galchneyuk & Sergachev's effort they are putting into training this summer?

He's training in Montreal right now, or was anyways with Plek, Emelin and a couple others. Probably old news though.
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It seems to me that last year many people ranked juulsen at the top. Now this year it's Sergachev. Hopefully he doesn't slide too much. This team needs more homegrown talent in depth positions.

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Don't think its comparable.

A guy at 25th overall and a guy at 9th overall are completely different.

No one talked about Juulsen as being the best defenceman in his draft. With Sergachev that is up for debate.

Should be noted we had Juulsen 4th last year, not tops.

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Sorry. I was generalizing a bit. It seemed many had him at or near the top. I wasn't specifying last word.

We had him 4th in our rankings last year as well and he was 5th in the fan vote. He was by far Montreal's best defence prospect at this point last year...his competition was Tinordi and Lernout, a player on the way towards busting and one that profiles as a third pairing guy.

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^ I agree with that ^ My list would have McCarron behind Sergachev as the #2 prospect. He`s going to play majority of the upcoming season in Mtl. I would put Brett Lernout ahead of Scherbak as well. Brett had a better AHL season, and made it to the NHL before Nikky. Lernout is very similar to Shea Weber at the same age, and will benefit immensely from watching Weber with the team. My fourth pick would be Martin Reway. He seems stronger and tougher than Lehkonen with similar skill level. I think that Lehkonen will end up back in Europe after a year or two in N.A., but Reway is in for the long haul. I would have Scherbak and Noah Juulsen in a deadlock for fifth spot. With Will Bitten right there with them.

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Scherbak should be well back of McCarron.

I'll have Scherbak ahead of McCarron on my personal ballot for the HW rankings next month. (Whether the other HW writers do is another thing.) McCarron basically had two good months last year (20 points in 20 games to start the season, 18 in 38 after that). That's not enough to drastically change my projection of him which is close to what Commandant's is. Scherbak struggled last year but was effectively an underager which is a huge mitigating factor. Will Scherbak's numbers in 2016-17, his draft +3 year, trump McCarron's 2015-16 numbers, his draft +3 year? I suspect they will.

I think Scherbak still has legitimate top six potential and I'm hesitant to put McCarron there just yet. Is he the point-per-game guy that started last year? If so, then yes, he's a top six potential player. If he's the 18 in 38 guy, that's more second/third line AHL production which doesn't often translate to top six NHL potential.

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Isn't McCarron only 6 months or so older than Sherbak? Plus Mike is probably a year or two further from full potential due to the size difference. In developmental terms it's more along the lines of Scherbak being 20 while McCarron is 19.

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Isn't McCarron only 6 months or so older than Sherbak? Plus Mike is probably a year or two further from full potential due to the size difference. In developmental terms it's more along the lines of Scherbak being 20 while McCarron is 19.

I believe Mccarron is nearly 10 months older. More or less a full year. I'm also not really sure if giving Mccarron extra years for development is fair at all; I actually see his size as an advantage for being NHL ready.

Scherbak also had many injury woes last year which delayed his development significantly. I expect to see Scherbak have a sharp period of development in the upcoming year. I see him posting points similar to how Hudon has produced. 25 goals 30-35 assists.

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"Brett Lernout is similar to shea weber at the same age"

All I can do is say wow and shake my head.... really? Really?

OMG.... Weber earned a full-time NHL place on a playoff team (28 games + 4 playoff games) at the same age Lernout was at... not a short callup because his team used 14 different defenceman that year.

At the same age Weber was prepping for his first full NHL season. He was on the verge of doing something special.

The age Lernout is now (summer of 2016) would be the age Weber was at in the summer of 2006.

In 2006-07 He would score 40 points in the NHL.

Do you think Lernout is on the verge of scoring 40 points for us this year?????

Holy shit.

This doesn't even get into their junior careers where Lernout didn't get a sniff of international duty and Weber was the number 1 defenceman on the greatest World Junior Team that has ever been assembled.

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Lernout similar to Weber in size and style more so than anything else. Although I think Brett made it to the NHL at about the same age as Weber did, since he was younger than Shea turning pro. He was hurt in his first NHL game, so he didn't have a chance to do much. Also, NHL points are more difficult to come by than they were 10 years ago.

In his final junior season, Weber scored 12 goals 41 points and was the seventh highest scorer on his WHL team. Lernout scored 14 goals 42 points and was the fifth highest scorer on his junior squad. Brett was a bit younger at the time they finished their junior careers.

Edited by ethan raphael
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I don't have a lot of hope for the team big guys. I don't see McCarron being more than a Boyle type player. Which is good but not great. Lernout.... not sure about the analysis there. Or lack thereof. I would love to see scherbak break out this year.

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Weber is still today an excellent NHL defenceman and a top pair guy. Lernout's ceiling is likely a third pairing guy; maybe by some miracle he makes the second pair. But seriously comparing the two is absolute madness....

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Also in what universe is Martin Reway stronger and tougher than Lehkonen? Cause it isn't the one we live in.

Have you watched those two play? Or did you just say Martin is a better name than Arturri, I think he's stronger.

Seriously get your eyes checked if you've actually watched the two guys play and think Reway is stronger and tougher.

Playing gritty, battling in the corners and in front of the net is a hallmark of Lehkonen's game... Reway, not so much. He's more flash, less fight.

You also indicate that Reway is in it for the long haul, but Lehkonen is likely to quit and go back to europe? WHAT??? The guy who has twice quit on his coach in the last three years and abandoned his team and changed leagues on a whim is in it for the long haul, and the other one is a risk to quit and go home? Thats some outstanding analysis there.... outstanding.

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Lehkonen didn't bother to come over for the summer camp, and if he doesn't make the Habs is going back to Sweden this fall from what I've heard. But obviously he is more committed than Martin Reway who came over here without a word of English or French, spent two years in some God awful outpost in northern Quebec, then returned for the summer camps and will play in the AHL if he doesn't make the NHL.

The comparison between Lernout and Weber was in terms of size and style AT THE SAME AGE. I'm sure no one looked at 20 year old Shea Weber and said, "Yeah, he's a perennial All Star, Norris candidate, and staple of Team Canada defense.". Up to this point in the two players careers there isn't a huge difference in terms of what they've accomplished. Which speaks well for Brett Lernout as a prospect.

But explaining the obvious to you is an ongoing process, Herr Commandant, and it's not that much fun so I think I'll give it up.

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Lehkonen didn't bother to come over for the summer camp, and if he doesn't make the Habs is going back to Sweden this fall from what I've heard. But obviously he is more committed than Martin Reway who came over here without a word of English or French, spent two years in some God awful outpost in northern Quebec, then returned for the summer camps and will play in the AHL if he doesn't make the NHL.

The comparison between Lernout and Weber was in terms of size and style AT THE SAME AGE. I'm sure no one looked at 20 year old Shea Weber and said, "Yeah, he's a perennial All Star, Norris candidate, and staple of Team Canada defense.". Up to this point in the two players careers there isn't a huge difference in terms of what they've accomplished. Which speaks well for Brett Lernout as a prospect.

But explaining the obvious to you is an ongoing process, Herr Commandant, and it's not that much fun so I think I'll give it up.

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Let's talk about real facts.

1) Lehkonen didn't come to Summer camp this year when he was excused by Habs brass. He told them he was exhausted and had some bumps and bruises from the long SHL playoff run. The team told him to take the time off and be ready for camp.

2) Reway attended camp this year. He was AWOL last year, when he was invited to camp and told the Habs, thanks but no thanks, i'll be sipping margaritas on the beach instead.

3) Lehkonen's contract is NHL or SHL because he has one year remaining on a contract with his SHL team. The Habs would have to pay to buy it out, but have chosen not to. This isn't Lehkonen's choice, its the negotiations between the Habs and Frolunda, because Lehkonen is under contract to them.

4) Reway has no contract in Europe. So its not the same situation.

I guess you pay as much attention to facts as you do to analytics.

==========================================

Now Lernout vs WEber

Here is what you said "Up to this point in the two players careers there isn't a huge difference in terms of what they've accomplished. Which speaks well for Brett Lernout as a prospect."

Here are the real facts.

1) At this point in their careers Weber was on team canada's world junior team twice. He was on the top pair twice. He won a gold medal and was a top pair defenceman on a team that was the greatest World Junior team ever assembled. He shut down two Russians by the names of Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin in the gold medal game. A team who was so dominant that they destroyed the tournament and the fact is that Jeff Glass rarely faced more than 15-18 shots per game.

Lernout wasn't even invited to try out for team canada.

2) Weber played 28 games and 4 playoff games on a playoff team. He took on a role of top 4 defenceman.

Lernout played 1 game for a team that used 15 defenceman as they were killed by injuries.

3) Awards and honours

Weber

- AHL Playoffs Most Goals by Defenseman 05/06

- CHL Memorial Cup All-Star Team 03/04

- CHL Memorial Cup Champion 03/04

- CHL Second All-Star Team 04/05

- U20 WJC Gold Medal 04/05

- WHL (West) First All-Star Team 04/05

- WHL (West) Second All-Star Team 03/04

- WHL Champion 02/03, 04/05

- WHL Playoffs MVP 04/05

Lernout .... Nothing since joining the WHL

4) Stats

Weber

27 points in 46 AHL games as a rookie.... 11 points in 14 playoff games

10 points in 28 NHL games.... 2 points in 4 NHL playoff games

vs

Lernout

12 points in 69 AHL games

0 Points in 1 NHL game

Yup, their accomplishments are very similar. I mean Weber had 12 points in 32 NHL games, and Lernout had 12 points in 69 AHL games. So very similar.

LMAO... High level analysis here folks.

====================================

I think I'll give it up.

Yeah thats probably a good idea.

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Anyone who has watched Reway and Lernout must be finding this as hilarious as I am.

"He seems stronger and tougher"

Analytics haters sure have invisible stats at hand when they talk don't they?

Lernout improved immensely throughout the season thanks in large part to his defensive partner in junior, Zarley Zalapski, who's second cousin was actually Tom Kostopolous. And that's why Lernout skates with a limp.

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Lernout improved immensely throughout the season thanks in large part to his defensive partner in junior, Zarley Zalapski, who's second cousin was actually Tom Kostopolous. And that's why Lernout skates with a limp.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... Best post ever.

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Reway will play in N.A. this coming season, which will be his third on this side of the pond. Lehkonen will not, and has yet to spend more than a few weeks here in his life. Finland is a nicer country to live in by most standards than Canada. So is Sweden. Unless Lehkonen is guaranteed full time NHL employment, he can earn more money in a happier place. I don't think the odds are good for him to step right into the lineup at the NHL level.

As for Lernout and Weber, due to birth dates, Shea got to spend an extra year in junior, and spent his WHL career on a junior powerhouse in Kelowna. That makes all the difference in the world in terms of exposure and selection for All Star and National teams. It also meant that Weber was much more ready for pro hockey when he graduated. I'm talking about the Lernout the prospect. He is about the same size as Weber was coming out. Right handed D with a huge shot who doesn't mind dropping the gloves. Put up similar offensive stats in his final junior season. Made it to the NHL in his first year as a pro. Those are enough similarities to me to rank him ahead of Scherbak on my list. All I ever tried to say, if you bother to read my post.

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