Commandant Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 7th gives you a shot at a lot better player. 7th brings one of dubois, nylander, tkachuk, joulevi and chychryn into the equation. Two of those five will be available. 8th gives you one of them. At 9 you dont get the choice. You take whats left over from that group or move into the next tier with mcleod keller gauthier sergechav bean. Dubois in my mind has made the tier of the top 7 into a top 8... so i want to be at minimum 8 7 8 and 9 are huge differences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Ahh keep forgetting about that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link67 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Ran 3 draft simulators with our new position, and we picked.... 1st: http://postimg.org/image/nnol8zm7n/ 2nd: http://postimg.org/image/86a9wruib/ 3rd: http://postimg.org/image/69unn5gyf/ So as you can see, the possibilities are real, and they just keep getting better the more we stink up the joint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Ran 3 draft simulators with our new position, and we picked.... 1st: http://postimg.org/image/nnol8zm7n/ 2nd: http://postimg.org/image/86a9wruib/ 3rd: http://postimg.org/image/69unn5gyf/ So as you can see, the possibilities are real, and they just keep getting better the more we stink up the joint This is what I've been telling my father...it's three lotteries for each of the top-3 picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazy26 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Ran 3 draft simulators with our new position, and we picked.... 1st: http://postimg.org/image/nnol8zm7n/ 2nd: http://postimg.org/image/86a9wruib/ 3rd: http://postimg.org/image/69unn5gyf/ So as you can see, the possibilities are real, and they just keep getting better the more we stink up the joint It's funny, I'll get bored and run about 20 simulations. Typically I'll get the Habs picking top 3 ONCE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueKross Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's funny, I'll get bored and run about 20 simulations. Typically I'll get the Habs picking top 3 ONCE. You all realize that if you are not selected, there is a good chance you will lose ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 This talk sounds strangly sacrilegious (Yes the habs are sacred). But, if they continue to REALLY stink up the joint, Calgary Winnipeg and Columbus are 6 points behind with a game in hand. Improbabluh, but not impossibluh to get a bottom four finish, and locking in that top 7 pick. If we finish 7th last, it's actually likely that we pick 8th or as low as 10th because of the accumulated chance of the 7 teams below us winning the lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trizzak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 This talk sounds strangle sacrilegious (Yes the habs are sacred). But, if they continue to REALLY stink up the joint, Calgary Winnipeg and Columbus are 6 points behind with a game in hand. Improbabluh, but not impossibluh to get a bottom four finish, and locking in that top 7 pick Here's hoping Calgary, Winnipeg, Columbus, and Buffalo are unstoppabluh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Didn't we kind of luck out in the lottery in Carey Price' draft year? I vaguely remember thinking that, thanks to the miracle of random chance, we might actually snag Crosby. (Price was a pretty good consolation prize - I've never forgotten the hysteria among fans that we failed to pick that obvious superstar, Gilbert Brulé This is why I don't pay too much attention to 'expert' pronouncements on the merits or demerits of any given draft pick). Anyway, the point is that if we lucked out once, it seems implausible that we'd luck out again. (I get that random is random, but what can I say? I tend to quit while I'm ahead, which is why I'll never make it as a gambler). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Actually, if I remember correctly, the habs actually thought they won that lottery and would get Crosby. There was supposed to have been some confusion at the time. Didn't we kind of luck out in the lottery in Carey Price' draft year? I vaguely remember thinking that, thanks to the miracle of random chance, we might actually snag Crosby. (Price was a pretty good consolation prize - I've never forgotten the hysteria among fans that we failed to pick that obvious superstar, Gilbert Brulé This is why I don't pay too much attention to 'expert' pronouncements on the merits or demerits of any given draft pick). Anyway, the point is that if we lucked out once, it seems implausible that we'd luck out again. (I get that random is random, but what can I say? I tend to quit while I'm ahead, which is why I'll never make it as a gambler). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazy26 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Didn't we kind of luck out in the lottery in Carey Price' draft year? I vaguely remember thinking that, thanks to the miracle of random chance, we might actually snag Crosby. (Price was a pretty good consolation prize - I've never forgotten the hysteria among fans that we failed to pick that obvious superstar, Gilbert Brulé This is why I don't pay too much attention to 'expert' pronouncements on the merits or demerits of any given draft pick). Anyway, the point is that if we lucked out once, it seems implausible that we'd luck out again. (I get that random is random, but what can I say? I tend to quit while I'm ahead, which is why I'll never make it as a gambler). Yeh we did luck out. Montreal had only one ball in the lottery (as opposed to 2 or 3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trizzak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It was something like the Habs had moved up the highest with the lowest odds. I don't think Montreal was expected to even pick in the top 15 that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeh we did luck out. Montreal had only one ball in the lottery (as opposed to 2 or 3) Looking into it, we actually finished 12th overall in 2003-04 - which then determined our standing for the '05 draft; a shockingly high outcome, relative to what my memory tells me about that era. What I recall is a terrible team that rode Theodore all the way to Round 2. I don't remember us being on the cusp of the top 10. Regardless: for us to draft at #5 was indeed a ridiculously lucky result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I just remember Brian Burke being so sour that he had to pick second overall. And the video of Columbus celebrating that, "Montreal took the goalie instead of Brule." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 This talk sounds strangly sacrilegious (Yes the habs are sacred). But, if they continue to REALLY stink up the joint, Calgary Winnipeg and Columbus are 6 points behind with a game in hand. Improbabluh, but not impossibluh to get a bottom four finish, and locking in that top 7 pick. If we finish 7th last, it's actually likely that we pick 8th or as low as 10th because of the accumulated chance of the 7 teams below us winning the lottery. while its plausible one team below us moves up (but still statistically unlikely). The chance Two or three move is minimal. The chances two teams below us win lottery spots is tiny... the chance of three doing it microscopic. Sure its possible but im not worried about it.To me the goal is 7th. 7th pretty much assures we draft top 8 which is what we need to be as this draft has 8 prospects in the top tier. P.s. if buffalo wins tonight and its not a shootout win.. we move up another spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronthab Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 WE MISSED BRULE!! Nobody told me!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 WE MISSED BRULE!! Nobody told me!! Yes an amazing 95 points in only 300 games (nhl only) how the heck did we miss him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 WE MISSED BRULE!! Nobody told me!! Still a classic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Still a classic. Maclean like most of the original sports net insiders/commentators is an idiot. The only decent analyst they have is Freidman. Maclean is proof that most fans would do a better job as a GM than him, or Milbury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Still a classic. Almost 1/2 of the 1st round in that draft could be classed as complete busts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 One stat was that 62% of 1st rounders play 200+ gms, so 2005 isn't that different from average. If they made draft 1 year older (18-19 yr olds), like they should, that % would be higher for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habs rule Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 One stat was that 62% of 1st rounders play 200+ gms, so 2005 isn't that different from average. If they made draft 1 year older (18-19 yr olds), like they should, that % would be higher for sure. I wasn't aware that the 1st rounders were that unlikely to make it. 40% not making it seems high as an average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I wasn't aware that the 1st rounders were that unlikely to make it. 40% not making it seems high as an average. Just shows that a huge element of 'crapshoot' informs the draft. Next time you doubt it, remember that PK Subban was passed over by every single team, and that a huge current of opinion favoured Brulé over the greatest goalie of his era, Carey Price. Meanwhile, a franchise like Detroit is praised for being awesome when they basically fluked out with two franchise players acquired as long shots in the nether regions of the draft. Sure, they 'knew it all along...' One of the more regrettable side-effects of the internet age and the 'sports network' 24-hour news cycle is that waaaay more false certainty gets spewed about draft picks than is warranted. So much energy is spent in and around draft day, by professional commentators and amateurs, all pronouncing about this and that prospect, with teams' performance being 'graded' as though it's all obvious, etc.. Fans work themselves into a froth, either of anger or delight. Yet in reality it's more like panning for gold, and everyone is getting all worked up before the sand is even sifted. Sometimes you get a nugget, most of the time you don't. You can tilt the odds in your favour through excellent scouting and good instincts, but that doesn't change the fact that you're in a casino and the house usually wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Goalies are still a draft mystery. Tough to compare them to forwards and defencemen, who scouts are getting better and better at figuring out their potential. Goalies are still a mystery, which is why the Mike Condons and Henrik Lundqvists are starting and the Jack Campbells can't make it out of the minors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Just shows that a huge element of 'crapshoot' informs the draft. Next time you doubt it, remember that PK Subban was passed over by every single team, and that a huge current of opinion favoured Brulé over the greatest goalie of his era, Carey Price. Meanwhile, a franchise like Detroit is praised for being awesome when they basically fluked out with two franchise players acquired as long shots in the nether regions of the draft. Sure, they 'knew it all along...' Detroit was miles ahead of everyone else in European scouting in that era. In the 2002 draft they got Hudler, Fleischmann and Filpula with their first three picks, and their first pick was 58th. That was over a decade ago, and they haven't kept ahead of the field since then. But in the 90's and early 00's they were the class of the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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