Jump to content

Eller's arbitration case


dlbalr

Recommended Posts

Early Wednesday morning, the Habs and Eller must disclose their arbitration briefs that will be used at Friday's hearing. Included in that are the relevant stats, salary requests, player comparables, etc.

Any guesses on what the asking price will be on each side? I expect the Habs to offer around $1.75 M or so while Eller will likely counter in the high $2 million/low $3 million range. (Of course, the Habs will go low and Eller high; expect the same should it get to this in Subban's case as well).

Will they get a deal done before the hearing? If so, how long would you want him signed for?

The other day, I threw together a list of potential comparable players as well as my guesses for the salary range depending on the term of the contract: http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3459

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope this gets settled before the hearing. 4 to 5 year deal would be nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe the arbitrator has to pick one of the two proposals? If Eller's number is at 3, I expect the arbitrator will take the low number. Montreal would favor making the deal for maximum of two years in that case. This being said, I prefer a longer agreement, even at 3M.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe the arbitrator has to pick one of the two proposals? If Eller's number is at 3, I expect the arbitrator will take the low number. Montreal would favor making the deal for maximum of two years in that case. This being said, I prefer a longer agreement, even at 3M.

It's not baseball where the arbitrator picks one or the other. It almost always falls in the middle.

Early reports are that the Habs offered $1.65 M, Eller's asking $3.1 M. Based on that, the one year term has been decided upon (otherwise we'd see two years of numbers). https://twitter.com/cmorganfoxaz/status/491940428212473857

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too bad going short, but Plekanec had same question marks at took a $2.75m/1 year deal before hitting the big time.

So, a $2.5-2.75 for one year wont kill him, but would of liked to see a 4 year deal.

But not my $$, so Go Larry Go, squeeze Molson for all he's worth and hope he gets his $3.1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't thought too hard about comparables, but my initial reaction is that Montreal's offer is about right. I don't see how six good weeks is worth $3 million. And a one-year deal is fine with me too - although I'd prefer two, because it's all too plausible to imagine Lars cranking it up for that one year, getting the payout and then reverting back to his easy-come, easy-go ways. Two years would buy the team a more adequate window in which to determine whether he is actually progressing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too bad going short, but Plekanec had same question marks at took a $2.75m/1 year deal before hitting the big time.

So, a $2.5-2.75 for one year wont kill him, but would of liked to see a 4 year deal.

But not my $$, so Go Larry Go, squeeze Molson for all he's worth and hope he gets his $3.1.

Plek comparison is kinda interesting.

Plekanec

2007-2008

29 goals, 69 points, .82 PPG

2008-2009

20 goals, 39 points, .49 PPG

Difference: .33 PPG

Eller

2012-2013

8 goals, 30 points, .65 PPG

2013-2014

12 goals, 26 points, .34 PPG

Difference: .31 PPG

Eller didn't have the year that Plek did in 07-08, but their drop in PPG was very similar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to score Montreal offered 1.65 and Eller wanted 3.1. Of course these are the hardball numbers for arbitration but it's still a long way off. Eller asked pretty much double what the Habs offered

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Stogey24

Plek comparison is kinda interesting.

Plekanec

2007-2008

29 goals, 69 points, .82 PPG

2008-2009

20 goals, 39 points, .49 PPG

Difference: .33 PPG

Eller

2012-2013

8 goals, 30 points, .65 PPG

2013-2014

12 goals, 26 points, .34 PPG

Difference: .31 PPG

Eller didn't have the year that Plek did in 07-08, but their drop in PPG was very similar.

Eller's size also comes into play. He's a much more physical centre and Montreal is lacking in that area...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to score Montreal offered 1.65 and Eller wanted 3.1. Of course these are the hardball numbers for arbitration but it's still a long way off. Eller asked pretty much double what the Habs offered

That's not that uncommon. The Leafs and Cody Franson were even further apart ($2 M vs $4.2 M). Eller's agent will take the comparables that make the most money, the Habs will take the ones that make the least money. I expected a $1.5 million gap and it's actually less than that so I'm content.

I would be ok with signing him for 4 years at 2.5 million that is a good deal for both parties.

The Habs would take that and run. If it's a four year deal, the only way Eller is signing is if it's $3.5 M per, not $2.5 M. He won't want to sign a long-term contract that more or less pigeon-holes him as a bottom six forward for the foreseeable future unless he's getting paid higher than bottom six money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lets not forget that eller just turned 25 years old here. he's entering his prime, and that playoff is only the tip of the iceberg for him. far too many of you fail to realize that everybody developes at a different pace. some are ready at 21, some at 27, and rarely do u ever see an 18 year old Nathan McKinnon step right in. believe me, lars ellers playoff was no fluke! and from the looks of things in mtl, the egg line just may be reunited. you want 70+ points from him? you'll get it, just wait an see

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Habs would take that and run. If it's a four year deal, the only way Eller is signing is if it's $3.5 M per, not $2.5 M. He won't want to sign a long-term contract that more or less pigeon-holes him as a bottom six forward for the foreseeable future unless he's getting paid higher than bottom six money.

There is absolutely no guarantee that he will improve nor is there any record to back it up. He has talent but can't quite figure out what to do with it. We shouldn't be paying for what if"s. Lets base it on his record and that record say's 4 years 2.5 million. He has proven nothing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is absolutely no guarantee that he will improve nor is there any record to back it up. He has talent but can't quite figure out what to do with it. We shouldn't be paying for what if"s. Lets base it on his record and that record say's 4 years 2.5 million. He has proven nothing.

Based on what he has shown to-date, sure. Why does Eller take that though? If he puts up another couple of 25-30 point seasons and goes to free agency, he still should surpass $2.5 million on the open market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just seems a 1 year deal, seems to be of the thinking he dosent project well for Mgmt and a longer deal I think is worth trying to lock him up for a moderately low deal for 3 or 4 years (but I think he will just get better and be more consistent and worth the risk) .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on what he has shown to-date, sure. Why does Eller take that though? If he puts up another couple of 25-30 point seasons and goes to free agency, he still should surpass $2.5 million on the open market.

maybe because a guarantee of 2.5 is better than a maybe when he craps the bed again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Stogey24

I don't see why Montreal wouldn't sign Eller to a 3-4 year deal at 3 million. Even if Eller does have another 30 point year, he's an easily moveable piece. For a kid who never bitches about being bumped up and down the line, stays healthy for the most part, and has a good hockey IQ, I'd say he's worth the $. Look at what the Clarksons and Bollands of the league are banking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

maybe because a guarantee of 2.5 is better than a maybe when he craps the bed again.

For him to get less than $2.5 M on the open market in two years time, he's going to have to be worse than we've seen in recent years. If he hits the market at 27 as a 25-30 point player, someone will give him that at least given his relatively young age, the fact that he's a big centre, and his first round pedigree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...