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Free Agent "Frenzy"


dlbalr

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I've seen a number of people pleading that player X or Y be given a 'chance' and that, if they don't succeed within a specified window, that will 'settle once and for all' whether that player is legit.

Yet as Machine has repeatedly pointed out, whenever Eller has been lined up against other teams' top two lines, he has failed miserably. It's a bit like all the cries to 'reunite the EGG line,' despite Machine's careful demonstration that the EGG line was in fact united at a certain point and broken up because it did absolutely nothing. What if Eller has already been given his 'chance?' Heck, Eller plays sheltered minutes against other teams' bottom lines - with Pleks eating all the toughest defensive minutes, and DD going up against other teams' top checkers - and has still chronically failed to accomplish anything.

I don't believe the logic anyway. In the first place, hardly any NHL coaches leave ANY line in place for 20 games if it's not productive. Contrary to popular belief, MT is quite normal in his line shuffling. Second, Eller has had years to - get this - supplant David Desharnais as a #2 C on this team. David Desharnais, nobody's idea of an unstoppable force at C. Yet Eller has manifestly been unequal to the task of demonstrating to his coaches that he will be reliably better than Desharnais. To me, it's pretty simple. If you can't outperform DD, you're not a top-6 C. Period. So I see Eller as this generation's Jan Bulis, another player who parlayed occasional good spurts into this mystical belief that he would 'break out' if only the coaches used him properly.

(On another note, when fans talk about a player being 'given a chance,' they often actually seem to mean 'being played with Pacioretty.' But it is physically not possible to play Pacioretty with every player that fans demand 'be given a chance.' Besides that, Pacioretty does not exist to be a one-man affirmative action program for young players who have been unable to force their way into a top-6 role on their own merits. In the brief spurts when Eller actually does play like a top-6 C, Therrien has tended to reward him with top-6 minutes. It's Eller himself whose mediocrity then forces him back to a bottom-6 role, it seems to me).

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ISecond, Eller has had years to - get this - supplant David Desharnais as a #2 C on this team. David Desharnais, nobody's idea of an unstoppable force at C. Yet Eller has manifestly been unequal to the task of demonstrating to his coaches that he will be reliably better than Desharnais. To me, it's pretty simple. If you can't outperform DD, you're not a top-6 C. Period. So I see Eller as this generation's Jan Bulis, another player who parlayed occasional good spurts into this mystical belief that he would 'break out' if only the coaches used him properly.

This is a point even I forget to make at times. Eller and DD's first seasons on the Habs were pretty much the same year in 10-11. Eller could have established himself as the new top six centre but only put up 17 points in 77 games. He was clearly too green. Desharnais came in from the AHL (and contrary to popular belief, wasn't supported by Pacioretty in the NHL yet) and supplanted Gomez with 22 points in 43 games. The next year (11-12) Desharnais was slotted on the top with Pacioretty and Cole because he earned the spot the year prior. Eller put up a decent 16 goals and 28 points but nothing that suggested he deserved it over DD or Plek. 2012-2013 he played with two rookies and had his breakout season with 30 in 46. He followed it in 13-14 by going right back to being a late 20 point scorer in a full season and never supplanted DD or Plekanec, who actually had a weak year in 13-14 with only 43 points. This time he could have pushed Plekanec aside but aside from a hot start in the EGG line, he never could break through. 14-15 has been the same song and dance with 27 points in 77 games. Plekanec had a turnaround year with 60 points. DD had a large portion of the season where he flat out couldn't put anything near the net and Eller still couldn't jump him.

I had hope for Eller. I always try to not go south on a player until they turn 25. I wanted to shout VIKING while he put up 50-60 points with us. He has yet to put up 35. 4 1/2 seasons in the league and he has yet to break 30 points but it's everyone's fault but his.

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Call me a homer but Eller has much more value than Mattias.

Matthias had every opportunity to establish himself as a top 6 player in Florida. He was fortunate to get traded to Vancouver where they have zero depth behind Sedin. He was fortunate to score 18 goals. Imo he'll never surpass that total.

If Matthias had every chance to become a top six C in Florida, then Eller has had every chance to do so in Montreal as well. Look at the ice time. Matthias had four full years with the Panthers. Here's his TOI breakdowns with PP ice time:

09-10: 10:47/0:33

10-11: 11:50/0:39

11-12: 13:48/0:35

12-13: 15:11/0:54

Here's Eller's TOI over the last four seasons with Montreal:

11-12: 15:18/0:39

12-13: 14:49/0:42

13-14: 15:57/1:06

14-15: 15:29/0:28

With the exception of PP time in the fourth year, Eller has had more ice time and chances than Matthias ever did in Florida.

But it's not really relevant as to who is better between the two. They're close, give whoever you like the nod, it doesn't change my original point. If Matthias, a player who is statistically comparable to Eller, could only fetch 1 year/$2.3 million on the open market without the team having to give up any assets in return, there are not going to be teams lining up to give up assets for a statistically similar player who has 3 years at $3.5 million per on a deal that also happens to be heavily backloaded.

For me, Matthias was one of the more interesting players on the market. Look at his splits from last year:

Versus the West: 48 GP, 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points, -17 rating

Versus the East: 30 GP, 13 goals, 8 assists, 21 points, +14 rating

And while mentioning this, I should also note his ice time last year was 13:06/0:05, nearly two and a half minutes less per game than Eller. So it's not like he received a ton of ice time because of Vancouver's so-so forward depth.

Clearly he likes playing in the East and he was smart enough to sign with an Eastern team. While that's an extreme sample, it would appear to be quite possible that he can eclipse last year's production, especially being on a weaker team like the Leafs.

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Guest Stogey24

Mathias is from Mississauga. He took a discount to go home too. He'd probably make 3mill anywhere else

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Mathias is from Mississauga. He took a discount to go home too. He'd probably make 3mill anywhere else

Should be interesting to see where Eric Fehr goes and for how much. Got a feeling he'll be taking a discount too, even though he's a 6'4" right handed centre who had a 19 goal season in Washington.

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Why hasn't Fehr signed yet? Is he simply waiting for more $$ to be offered?

I can see teams being hesitant with him. Fehr played alright in Washington early in his career but after being dealt to Winnipeg for that one year, he was awful. Then he went back to Washington and played well again. So is he one of those players that just fits in well in one specific team? Also, his playoff numbers are really ugly which probably doesn't help either. He's probably getting lower offers than he expected.

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A tidbit from Elliotte Friedman's 30 Thoughts on free agency:

Marc Bergevin is one of the more active GMs, in terms of working the phones. It’s difficult to know sometimes from the outside if he’s trying to do something, or simply collecting information. The Canadiens were in on a few things. They took a run at Matt Beleskey, but weren’t willing to go five years like Boston. There was dialogue with Shawn Matthias, but it’s tough to tell how far it got. And, knowing their needs, I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least inquire about Oshie. Again, though, I’m not sure it went anywhere.

We knew they were in on Beleskey but them talking to Matthias is interesting.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-players-like-kessel-tough-to-find/

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A tidbit from Elliotte Friedman's 30 Thoughts on free agency:

We knew they were in on Beleskey but them talking to Matthias is interesting.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-players-like-kessel-tough-to-find/

Does that suggest they're considering replacing Eller?

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Does that suggest they're considering replacing Eller?

Matthias can play wing as well. I have a feeling if Bergevin didn't acquire Kassian, he might have tried to get Matthias.

Come on dlbalr, quote everything!

One agent did say Quebec’s taxes are a bigger factor than we consider, because they have to bid higher or give more term to overcome. Bergevin is very wary about that, because it will block his young players. One GM pointed out that Daniel Carr (who led AHL Hamilton in goals), and Sven Andrighetto (fourth in points) are waiver-eligible after next season. The Canadiens have to find out if they are NHLers.

That lends into why I've felt that unless Bergevin "got his man", we'd just stick to trying a youngster out instead of throwing a contract at a guy like Semin, Glencross or Boyes.

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Matthias can play wing as well. I have a feeling if Bergevin didn't acquire Kassian, he might have tried to get Matthias.

Come on dlbalr, quote everything!

That lends into why I've felt that unless Bergevin "got his man", we'd just stick to trying a youngster out instead of throwing a contract at a guy like Semin, Glencross or Boyes.

I don't like quoting more than a few sentences from an article on here. Besides, the blurb about Carr/Andrighetto was probably better served for a different thread than this one.

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So John Scott got an NHL contract after all this summer, signing with the Coyotes. His agent must have sold them on his career season offensively since he set or tied career highs in goals, assists, and points. (He almost outscored every goalie last year...)

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Quote from article:

"A left winger, Scott certainly appears to fit a weakness on the Coyotes depth chart, although it was thought left-shot prospects Max Domi and/or Anthony Duclair would make a run at a left wing spot in 2015-16."

What forking weakness was that? They were missing a wall or garage door? In case the glass fell out? But hey he scores a lot more goals that Carey Price does. Like 2 or 3 times as many.

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Actually, while I hold no brief for Scott either, his continued existence does raise a question. Three years ago when the Senators ran us out of the rink, the consensus was that we needed to get tougher; we were in the 'bad neighbourhood' of the NHL, according to our GM. Yet we've since shipped out Prust and Moen, and really don't have anyone else who can reliably drop 'em in our lineup (although we have been quietly getting bigger). I know goons have been shoved out of the game by advanced stats and perhaps fear of lawsuits, but that's a different matter from guys who can play and fight. So, is this an area of weakness that will come back to haunt us sooner or later? Is there any cause for concern?

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Actually, while I hold no brief for Scott either, his continued existence does raise a question. Three years ago when the Senators ran us out of the rink, the consensus was that we needed to get tougher; we were in the 'bad neighbourhood' of the NHL, according to our GM. Yet we've since shipped out Prust and Moen, and really don't have anyone else who can reliably drop 'em in our lineup (although we have been quietly getting bigger). I know goons have been shoved out of the game by advanced stats and perhaps fear of lawsuits, but that's a different matter from guys who can play and fight. So, is this an area of weakness that will come back to haunt us sooner or later? Is there any cause for concern?

I know what you mean and I am an old "if we can't beat em on the ice let's get em in the back alley" kind of a guy but the "new" hockey thing is we will not fight. John Ferguson scored goals and beat the crap out of everyone. Bob Probert same thing but no more. So we have to accept that we are moving to a more "enlightened league" . I, like you really wonder if this going to bite us in the ass, I hope not. All the big "guns" like Boston and Trawna Philly have gone the skill way , we were already there, so we were ahead of out times? I hope so but I gotta admit I still love a great tilt, which we will not see any more. I hope I haven't assumed too much in what you think and if I have I apologize. As you know I have great respect for your views.

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I know what you mean and I am an old "if we can't beat em on the ice let's get em in the back alley" kind of a guy but the "new" hockey thing is we will not fight. John Ferguson scored goals and beat the crap out of everyone. Bob Probert same thing but no more. So we have to accept that we are moving to a more "enlightened league" . I, like you really wonder if this going to bite us in the ass, I hope not. All the big "guns" like Boston and Trawna Philly have gone the skill way , we were already there, so we were ahead of out times? I hope so but I gotta admit I still love a great tilt, which we will not see any more. I hope I haven't assumed too much in what you think and if I have I apologize. As you know I have great respect for your views.

Thanks, habs rule! No, I was just asking an honest question about whether having zero guys who can 'go' represents a potential weakness other teams can exploit - not trying to make an implicit argument for (or against) fighting.

(Since you sort of asked, though, my own view is that fighters as 'policemen' have been increasingly redundant since the instigator rule came in; players became unwilling to lay a whupping on a guy unless that guy gave them an engraved invitation to go, which took away the entire rationale that you needed fighting as a way of keeping cheap shots and stick-work at a minimum. The result became the 'side show' fighting of gigantic goons being on the ice of three minutes per night for the sole purpose of fighting each other - which is dumb. Add to that what we now know about concussions, all that's really left of the case for fighting is the Lecavalier-vs-Iginla scenario of two legit players driving each other crazy and dropping the mitts in order to blow off steam. Which I like. But my thing is, now that players no longer protect teammates, we need the damned rules against head-shots, etc., to be rigorously enforced, and this the NHL has yet to do reliably, except against players they don't like).

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I agree rules need to be enforced with harsher suspensions. I want Quintal to come out and say past precedent in suspension amounts are erased and this is what you get now: 20 games for first headshot, 40 games for second, full season with need of reinstatement for third. Anyone with prior suspensions for headshots carry over. No more slap on the wrist for "no prior fines" because that makes players say in their head, "I can get away with this one, better make it count."

The whole reason we thought we needed enforcers was because referees and the league was too soft on goons. If Carcillo and Cooke were playing in Europe for being thrown out of the league, players would instinctively keep their elbows down.

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The only problem is the refs don't enforce the rules we got. If they enforced the rules starting in September and kept on doing it until July, we would not have so many probs. I hate the staged fights, we did not used to have those. If 2 guys (or 8 or 10) went at it, it was a real fight. We will never see that again. Fighting is being eliminated from the game, which is a good thing I guess, but the reffing really needs to improve. There are some refs in the league who shouldn't be reffing tom thumb, for crying out loud. Yes i know we don't play in Sept or July, I am exaggerating. Just ref the game for the entire season and playoffs, and do it the same all year long. A penalty in Nov should be a penalty in June. Also I would like to eliminate the cheesy penalties, the phantom hook, the embellishment call is ridiculous. The over the glass needs to be improved. Oh and you are not allowed to check any Canadiens player, that is a big one. :rastapop:

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You do realize the refs enforce exactly what the billionaire owners want enforced. They take their marching orders from the league and is a constantly moving target. Which is main reason officiating is so wonky. If betting on NHL was a bigger deal, as it is in NFL/NCAA owners could not so easily tell officials to simply 'let em play' and not be so strict or lenient on calling X or Y type infractions.

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You do realize the refs enforce exactly what the billionaire owners want enforced. They take their marching orders from the league and is a constantly moving target. Which is main reason officiating is so wonky. If betting on NHL was a bigger deal, as it is in NFL/NCAA owners could not so easily tell officials to simply 'let em play' and not be so strict or lenient on calling X or Y type infractions.

Yes I do realize who their bosses are. However if the bosses want the game called the way it has been, then I have no idea how they got to be Billionaires cause some of the reffing is just plain stooopid.

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It is about entertainment (and $$) exactly as WWF is. 100% agree is bush-league and frustrating, but can you imagine being a ref, call this..no let it go a bit more...call more penalty shots... let goalies be run over or puck pitchforked into net...too many goalies being hurt so call any goalie interference...tighten up on stick work calls...etc etc never ending change in how is officiated after each GM meeting.

Has been like that seemingly forever, but to dump on all refs is a bit unfair, that's all I was getting at.

If want real change, owners can do it in a heart beat, but got to make $$ and PR sense to majority of them first (see 4 shift goon as example, Parros and other fighters wacking head on ice and being stretchered off, is a PR nightmare, so they are finally being phased out) .

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