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#1 Quebecois

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Posted 24 April 2009 - 10:07 PM

Well the Habs are out, time to move on.

This is really just a place for me to ask, does anyone think the Jays might be for real?

Our record is the best in the AL since Cito Gaston took over midway through last season, but I'm still pretty skeptical. The rotation is hanging on by a thread and the bats are bound to cool down eventually.
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#2 jetsniper

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Posted 24 April 2009 - 10:26 PM

I think they'll cool off around the end of May, like usual.

If they can keep this up till the All-Star break, thats when I'll take them seriously.
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#3 Quebecois

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Posted 24 April 2009 - 10:36 PM

QUOTE (jetsniper @ Apr 24 2009, 11:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think they'll cool off around the end of May, like usual.

If they can keep this up till the All-Star break, thats when I'll take them seriously.


Actually I don't remember the Jays getting off to a great start since 03. Always seem to be about .500 or worse in April, and make up some ground in September when it no longer matters.

But yeah, I'll keep my expectations in check for now.
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#4 jetsniper

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Posted 24 April 2009 - 11:06 PM

QUOTE (Quebecois @ Apr 24 2009, 09:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Actually I don't remember the Jays getting off to a great start since 03. Always seem to be about .500 or worse in April, and make up some ground in September when it no longer matters.

But yeah, I'll keep my expectations in check for now.


Oh, do you mean really good starts? Cause they started off pretty well in 2005 and 2006 as well.

They were 28-24 at the end of May in '05 and 29-23 in '06. '03 they were 31-26. About the same actually.

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#5 Colin

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Posted 25 April 2009 - 11:16 AM

Cito Gaston. Should never, ever have been fired. He's one of the best managers in the game and will have Toronto playing over their heads all year.

Shocked at their start? No. Every team has hot streaks. Toronto's is now. Can it continue? If the injury bug stays away. Is the team better than what analysts thing? Well, analysts thought last season's version of the Habs would struggle to make the playoffs. They were 1st OA in the East by the end of the year.

I have always hated the Blue Jays. Until late last year when Cito came back. And now that Burkie is a Leafer? I have a new like of all things Toronto.

I feel stained, but still.

Now, if the Sox can pick up their Red, the Braves can play like their always at Home, and the Padres can Chicken off the opposition, I'll be a happy camper.
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#6 jetsniper

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Posted 25 April 2009 - 12:42 PM

Hey, the Sox have been playing much better lately.

We beat the scum last night. biggrin.gif
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#7 Quebecois

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Posted 26 April 2009 - 08:48 PM

QUOTE (Colin @ Apr 25 2009, 12:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Cito Gaston. Should never, ever have been fired. He's one of the best managers in the game and will have Toronto playing over their heads all year.


I don't really understand why he never got another chance to manage during the 10 years between stints...

I have a few issues with how he manages the game to be honest, but it is his intangibles that really impress me. He has done wonders for a lot of players on that team and the gap between him and John Gibbons cannot be understated.
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#8 Fanpuck33

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Posted 07 May 2009 - 11:34 AM

Manny Ramirez suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He claims it wasn't a steroid. Propecia to keep those dreds nice and long? laugh.gif
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#9 MAK

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Posted 07 May 2009 - 11:49 AM

QUOTE (Fanpuck33 @ May 7 2009, 12:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Manny Ramirez suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He claims it wasn't a steroid. Propecia to keep those dreds nice and long? laugh.gif

laugh.gif

sucks for the Dodgers, they were having an awesome start.
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#10 markierung

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 10:04 AM

A Sure Fire Hall of Famer just crapped away his legacy!
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#11 Colin

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 10:18 AM

QUOTE (markierung @ May 8 2009, 11:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
A Sure Fire Dickhead just proved his dickheadedness!


Edited for clarity.
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#12 House11

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 10:34 AM

QUOTE (Fanpuck33 @ May 7 2009, 09:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Manny Ramirez suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He claims it wasn't a steroid. Propecia to keep those dreds nice and long? laugh.gif


Nah he's right it wasn't a steroid ... it's a drug they give to guys that make there balls work again after steroids laugh.gif
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#13 jetsniper

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Posted 10 May 2009 - 12:43 AM

And hello Jason Bay!

Thanks LA!
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#14 Quebecois

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Posted 12 May 2009 - 10:14 PM

All due respect to Zack Greinke/Johan Santana/Tim Lincecum etc.

but Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.
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#15 Fanpuck33

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Posted 12 May 2009 - 11:48 PM

QUOTE (Quebecois @ May 12 2009, 11:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
All due respect to Zack Greinke/Johan Santana/Tim Lincecum etc.

but Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.


Lincecum is close to proving he's one of the best and Greinke is only now getting in the conversation. Santana, though, is hands down a better pitcher than Doc.

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#16 Colin

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 09:40 AM

QUOTE (Fanpuck33 @ May 13 2009, 12:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Lincecum is close to proving he's one of the best and Greinke is only now getting in the conversation. Santana, though, is hands down a better pitcher than Doc.


If, by "hands down," you mean tying Doc's hands down, then yes, you are correct, Santana is a much better pitcher. I do, however, disagree with your statement if you meant that Santana is a significantly better pitcher when both of them have their hands available.
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#17 JoeLassister

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 09:53 AM

QUOTE (Colin @ May 13 2009, 10:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
If, by "hands down," you mean tying Doc's hands down, then yes, you are correct, Santana is a much better pitcher. I do, however, disagree with your statement if you meant that Santana is a significantly better pitcher when both of them have their hands available.

laugh.gif

At this level of excellence, it's hard to tell wich one is the best... Just like Crosby-Ovy, both of them got their fans.
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#18 Colin

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 12:35 PM

Here's the major question, though, why do you think Santana is a better pitcher?
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#19 Fanpuck33

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 01:15 PM

Just look at their career numbers:

Halladay: 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .254 BAA, 6.43 K/9, 3.13 K to BB ratio
Santana: 3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .221 BAA, 9.33 K/9, 3.74 K to BB ratio

About the only advantage Halladay has over him is endurance. If I absolutely need a CG, I might choose Halladay. If I just need the best 7 innings possible, I'll go with Santana 10 times out of 10.


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#20 nhfarber

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 01:31 PM

QUOTE (Fanpuck33 @ May 13 2009, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just look at their career numbers:

Halladay: 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .254 BAA, 6.43 K/9, 3.13 K to BB ratio
Santana: 3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .221 BAA, 9.33 K/9, 3.74 K to BB ratio

About the only advantage Halladay has over him is endurance. If I absolutely need a CG, I might choose Halladay. If I just need the best 7 innings possible, I'll go with Santana 10 times out of 10.



Here is the biggest difference. How many times has Santana played in front of a playoff team? Even better Santana set those number playing in two FAR WEAKER divisions (AL Central, NL East). Halladay has accomplished those numbers with arguably a worse team, and in the toughest division in all of baseball.
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#21 simonus

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 01:44 PM

it's tough to compare them, especially considering that they now play in very different leagues. I think Johan Santana has had the more impressive career to date, but I am more interested in who is better right now.

I think it is foolish to use 2009 stats because of the small sample size, and it is difficult to use Santana's 2008 stats because it is a transition-to-new-league year. Additionally the 2008 NL East and 2008 AL East are hugely different leagues.

As far as endurance goes, Halladay is not overwhelmingly superior to Santana. Per bball-ref, he has a 230 IP/162 games where Santana has ~213IP over 162 games. Noticeable, but nothing to go wild over.

Despite a slight hiccup in his league transition year, Santana has shown a distinct and significant advantage in his strikeout numbers (at slight expense of his walk numbers). Largely thanks to this, Santana has shown superior ERA+ over his career and in recent seasons. Santana is also younger and so one would expect him to have a few more years of prime performance left relative to Halladay (and being in the NL should increase this apparent advantage).


For those that care, it is interesting the Halladay has yet to pitch a postseason game, while Santana has pitched moderate-to-ok in his few games (remember that postseason numbers should be judged with a skeptical eye given the quality of opposition and the small sample). Of course, Santana is somewhat removed chronologically from those appearances. I would be especially loathe to look at Santana's numbers as a predictor of future postseason results given that they are spread over a few of his early years (note that he was damned good in his last appearance).

Overall, I think I give the decision to Santana by a long nose, although they are both obviously very good. I am terribly worried about Lincecum being overused and getting torn apart.
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#22 Fanpuck33

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Posted 13 May 2009 - 04:09 PM

QUOTE (nhfarber @ May 13 2009, 02:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here is the biggest difference. How many times has Santana played in front of a playoff team? Even better Santana set those number playing in two FAR WEAKER divisions (AL Central, NL East). Halladay has accomplished those numbers with arguably a worse team, and in the toughest division in all of baseball.


I'm not taking wins and losses into account here, so the calibre of the team the pitchers are pitching for is somewhat irrelevant, unless the Jays are significantly worse defensively than the Twins or Mets. As for the calibre of the divisions, that's arguable. The AL East is obviously strong at the top, but until Tampa's emergence, I wouldn't call it a strong division. I mean, for every game you had against Boston and New York, you had just as many games against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
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#23 Quebecois

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Posted 15 May 2009 - 05:54 PM

I'm biased but let's take a look at the stats. Should be interesting.

I'll start the numbers in 2002 when both pitchers started to come into their own. Obviously Doc is a little older so that will benefit him.

Santana:

110-50, 2.79 ERA, 9 CG, 6 SHO, 1459.1 IP, 159 ERA+, 1.044 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 4.2 K:BB

247 games, 207 starts


Halladay:

120-50, 3.18 ERA, 38CG, 9 SHO, 1532.1 IP, 143 ERA+, 1.128 WHIP, 8.5 H/9IP, 0.7 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 3.95 K:BB

215 games, 214 starts.


Most of the numbers point towards Santana. The thing that makes Halladay as good as him, in my humble opinion, is the competition. I read something near the end of last year that Doc had to face the opponents with the highest OPS out of any pitcher in baseball.

Just look at the 9 game stretch he had to finish the season last year.

Boston X3
NYY X3
TB X2
CHW X 1

Ended up 7-2, 2.95 ERA, opponents OPS of .615, 51Ks, 8BB in 64.0 IP
Boston scored the 3rd most runs in the league, CHW was 6th, NYY was 10th, TBR was 14.


I guess my point is that Santana might still have the slight edge, but no one faces stiffer competition than Halladay, and if the playing field were equal, I would not be able to give Santana the nod with any semblance of confidence.

It will be interesting to see how CC Sabathia does this year. Another lefty who made his living in the greener pastures of the AL Central.





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#24 Zowpeb

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Posted 17 May 2009 - 12:02 AM

QUOTE (Quebecois @ May 15 2009, 06:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm biased but let's take a look at the stats. Should be interesting.

I'll start the numbers in 2002 when both pitchers started to come into their own. Obviously Doc is a little older so that will benefit him.

Santana:

110-50, 2.79 ERA, 9 CG, 6 SHO, 1459.1 IP, 159 ERA+, 1.044 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 4.2 K:BB

247 games, 207 starts


Halladay:

120-50, 3.18 ERA, 38CG, 9 SHO, 1532.1 IP, 143 ERA+, 1.128 WHIP, 8.5 H/9IP, 0.7 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 3.95 K:BB

215 games, 214 starts.


Most of the numbers point towards Santana. The thing that makes Halladay as good as him, in my humble opinion, is the competition. I read something near the end of last year that Doc had to face the opponents with the highest OPS out of any pitcher in baseball.

Just look at the 9 game stretch he had to finish the season last year.

Boston X3
NYY X3
TB X2
CHW X 1

Ended up 7-2, 2.95 ERA, opponents OPS of .615, 51Ks, 8BB in 64.0 IP
Boston scored the 3rd most runs in the league, CHW was 6th, NYY was 10th, TBR was 14.


I guess my point is that Santana might still have the slight edge, but no one faces stiffer competition than Halladay, and if the playing field were equal, I would not be able to give Santana the nod with any semblance of confidence.

It will be interesting to see how CC Sabathia does this year. Another lefty who made his living in the greener pastures of the AL Central.


I'm not sure I'd say the numbers point to Santana...
Halladay had more wins, more CG's, more SHO's...other then ERA and WHIP, which Santana was clearly better in, the rest are marginal indicators to me. Also, the ERA and WHIP could be affected by park factors, team defense, opponents faced, etc...over those years, IIRC, Santana played in a slightly better pitchers park(until changes to the Metrodome a couple years ago...again IIRC), had a better team around him and pitched in a lighter hitting division. Since 2002, I don't think Minnesota had a losing record more then once. Halladay allows slightly less HR's and walks but Santana allows slightly less hits and K's a few more...but both have above average numbers in all those categories. Those are just peripheral and a wash IMO.

ERA, WHIP, CG's, SHO, W's are the most indicative categories to a pitchers influence on a team or game. The fact Halladay had so many W's, CG's and SHO's on so many crap teams is impressive to say the least. Santana's ERA and WHIP numbers are also impressive even with a good team around him and the fact he typically had the edge in park factors, team defence, etc.

I realise, as one poster mentioned, the Jays played Baltimore and Tampa consistently BUT Baltimore was also a team that could hit and couldn't pitch. Further, Minnesota had to pitch against KC, DET, CLE, CHI and almost every year at least 2 of those teams couldn't hit out of a paper bag and many of those years most were under .500 clubs. The AL East may have had similar numbers of clubs under .500 but it's a mute point considering the Jays WERE typically one of the under .500 clubs looking up at the Red Sox and Yankees...

Personally, I'd take Halladay if I need a win in a playoff battle...the CG's, SHO's, lower HR/9 and lower BB/9 all point a pitcher that dominates more games and hitters.
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#25 BTH

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Posted 17 May 2009 - 02:01 PM

Random baseball questions:

1) Looking at this thread... what the hell are some of these pitching statistics: SHO, WHIP, CG, BB?
2) What is a balk?
3) Why do people watch baseball? It seems like analyzing the stats is 10x more fun than watching the games.
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