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Zowpeb

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Everything posted by Zowpeb

  1. LOL...you can send one to me. I stand by my comments...and fwiw the UFA's I mentioned I just pulled from a "top upcoming FA's list"...
  2. Yeah, so overpay Subban now and Galy next year right? Overpay any entry level guys too right? Wouldn't want to hurt anyone's FEELINGS in case they get a boo boo on their heart and won't re-sign. Seriously, you just don't understand money, finance, budgeting...just give it up Joe. Signing Subban to the level you suggested earlier in this thread would leave these team mired as a 5th to 8th place playoff team. Whoever said they need reasonable deals, with talent, at all three tiers entry level, RFA and UFA was bang on. Subban is 23 and a man. He knows it's a business...THATS WHY HE IS SITTING OUT. This will not impact his decision when he's 27...assuming of course he even has a career that makes the team want to resign him which you mistakenly take as a given.
  3. I agree that a $2.5m offer is lowball and BS. Bergevin deserves some ridicule if true. I'm calling you out on your comment that this was your point. That's a complete lie. You were in the camp wanting to pay Subban like a $6M UFA...so this was not your "point".
  4. This is why I want the Habs to rip the band aids off fast. Trade Gionta and Cole for draft picks. Maybe one of Eller or DD. Buy out Kaberle. Hopefully get Subban signed at a reasonable deal. Doing this stuff will see, what I think is probably a lottery team already, crumble to pick in the 3-7 range. Use the new picks to be in the top 3 already if you aren't. If you are then package some of them to try and get another top 10 pick. Go into the off-season with huge cap room and knowing you have 2-3 recent top draft picks in your top 2-3 lines...UFA's next year include Getzlaf/Perry/Iginla/Clowe/Horton/Hartnell/Edler/Smid/Enstrom.
  5. I do not see someone offering him that...which is why I don't think he'll get an offer sheet. If the Habs could get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd AND they intended to use that $6M level of cap space on a quality UFA next summer then I'd take that over Subban. I think if someone signs him to an offer sheet under $6M the Habs would match it...I personally would not if we got 1,2 and 3rd round picks in this years draft...
  6. Where'd I say they need to use the space on a D-man?? We were talking about the value/return if someone signed him and we took the picks and cap space...
  7. Sure...but there are usually 3 of those $7M types most years...and another 3-5 of the $5-$6.5M types. And I'd say there are usually less then a dozen teams with the money to sign a guy like that in any given off-season. Cap management is crucial...it has to be done efficiently and with the highest degree of efficacy they can manage. It's why you don't just sign a guy like Subban because of fan/media sentiment...and why you don't pay a guy superstar dollars simply because he might, one day, in the future, maybe, become a superstar. The question is term length and pricing future value. His agent will ignore risk factors in his future value asking price...the team will look to price that risk into the equation.
  8. Commandant...that's assuming their offer sheet isn't above the threshold requiring them to give up more. You also need to consider that it's not just acquiring those picks...you also keep $6M in cap room which allows you to sign a pretty good UFA at that number. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise signed for only $1.5M more then that number last summer. Shane Doan and Matt Carle signed for under $5.5M last summer. Adding those picks (even from a team that is likely in the bottom third of the draft rounds) PLUS a UFA of that level is really what you need to consider.
  9. That would be ridiculous for Subban...he'd leave a lot of future earning potential on the table. Subban WILL one day be worth $6M per year...basic cap inflation alone will push salaries up, though I'm confident he'll eventually be that good even in today's dollars. Why would you want this if you're Subban? The issue is that the Habs shouldn't COMMIT to paying the big future dollars yet. Too much changes in how they need to organize the team.
  10. If Subban was to get an offer sheet at that level the Habs would certainly match it. It's really the only leverage, outside of sitting out, that Subban has to get a long term deal he wants. However, why would Philly waste their time signing him to an offer sheet the Habs would surely match? They gain nothing and it's a waste of their time and effort. The only way someone signs Subban to an offer sheet is if they think they have a chance of not only Subban accepting it BUT that the Habs may not match...that will require over $6M per year for probably 7 years. I don't see any team making that offer sheet unless this drags out for another 4-6 weeks. You keep talking about the Habs paying him what he "deserves"...sounds like a child, or Quebec university student, talking about their entitlements. LOL Seriously, no one is saying that Subban won't one day be worth those kinds of dollars on the UFA market...he very likely will. This is about the Habs not being in a position where they have to pay for future risk (Subban could get injured, could regress, become a locker room cancer, fall into the Montreal party scene as many others have, etc)...so the Habs SHOULD be looking for a bridge deal on any young RFA. In 2 years, they can offer Subban his big deal...he'll have a proven track record and, hopefully, a pattern of consistency (something his short career has not defined yet). As someone pointed out earlier, this is really ridiculous on Subban's part...he could probably sign for $3.5M and $4M over the next 2 years before signing a bigger increase that encompasses a couple UFA years. Instead he wants a long term deal...which would, in all likelihood, be structured something like $3.5M/$4M/$5M/$6M/$6.5M/$7M. So in the end, it's all about him wanting to force the Habs to commit those bigger years now...he wants a guarantee against all the risk the Habs have concern about (ie. the injury risk, regression risk, locker room risk, etc). Why should the Habs cave in to that? It's a very dangerous precedent...Subban is 1-2 years early in making this kind of demand. If he was as committed as he claims then he'd just say, fine, let's sign a 1 year $3.5M deal and talk again in the summer where we can negotiate without it impacting the team...and he get's one more year (albeit shortened) to try and show he's worth more and push for the longer deal.
  11. I'm just stunned at some posters around here who simply refuse to understand simple economics, RFA vs UFA status, and how it relates to player value. Our education system is seriously failing... This team has a salary cap. Therefore payroll obligations are finite and limited...when you pay more then you need to then you take away available money to sign other talent. Therefore your team is going to be worse. Not hard to understand folks. This has nothing to do with Subban's results the past 2 years...it has everything to do with his lack of leverage to negotiate. If he gets $4M per year then the Habs are being generous based on the fact he can't generate competition to sign him. All he can do is withhold services and hope he gets signed to an offer sheet (unlikely) or demand a trade...in the end his smartest move is to sign a short term deal, play his but off and then sign a long term deal. Hell, he'd likely make out similarly on an annual pay basis when you consider that even a long term deal now would likely be loaded towards the final few years...all the Habs are doing is mitigating risk by wanting a shorter term deal.
  12. I have no problem with Subban, through his agent, negotiating hard and trying to get the right deal for him. I don't hold it against him...especially when there was essentially a limited time frame to negotiate due to the lock-out. I think Bergevin knows the team isn't that strong and he's likely to be in the lottery at the draft. I think he's willing to let a few games slide if it means he's in the top 5-6 picks again. I also think if the team surprised and came out strong he'd be comfortable dragging out a negotiation even longer. He's completely in the drivers seat and it's really a no-lose situation. The worst that could happen from a negotiation standpoint is if a team comes along with an offer sheet in hand...and I maintain that it's highly unlikely since the lock-out just ended. No GM wants to already be seen as the guy driving up salaries less then a month after a hard fought lock-out over payroll issues. Bergevin can sit tight and get a fair deal...Subban can try, and should try, to get everything he can in any negotiation but at some point his agent has to realise he has no leverage. Which is exactly why Meehan SHOULD be trying to get a bridge deal.
  13. This is absurd. He can think whatever he wants but he has no leverage to negotiate a better contract then veteran UFA's. If he doesn't like it then he should complain to the NHLPA. It remains to be seen if he's better then Markov and, fwiw, the Habs didn't sign Kaberle to that ridiculous deal... Signing a player to a signficant deal when you can sign them to a cheaper deal is not a calculated gamble...it's just stupid. Your Apple stock comment makes no sense...the correct analogy is that you would have paid the equivalent of Apple's share price TODAY in 1998 simply because you thought it would be worth that one day.
  14. I thought Subban had a good year...thought Gorges was the more valuable d-man. Admittedly different roles. Also noteworthy that Emelin and Diaz were rookies, Kaberle and Weber are mediocre at best...so you think Subban was the best of a pretty poor bunch. Don't get me wrong, I think Subban will be a very fine player. I just think the whole love in and guys wanting him signed at crazy numbers is just beyond insane. I know you aren't suffering fanboy syndrome like some but I believe Price was clearly more valuable then than Subban is today.
  15. Except paying those guys as your top 6 now means you aren't going to have a quality team for 2-3 years, at least, since they aren't yet at their peak. Further it's probable that those early signing risks don't all pan out as well as planned and you are stuck with 2-3 overpaid players. Most top teams pay a top 6 group of guys that kind of money BUT they also leverage a few quality young guys who are also CHEAP because of their RFA status. I hope to god that some of you who advocate overpaying now because Subban is a nice guy...and has the potential (please look up what that means) to be very good...don't ever start a business. If so, you can hire me and pay me a CEO salary because I could be a CEO one day...I'm a VP today, under 40 and have the potential for the executive suite...I also give to charity and volunteer coaching kids soccer and hockey. Would you pay me $500K+ with bonuses a year to be your VP? I realise the going VP rate is $120K but I'm a good guy and have the potential to run your business in 3-4 years.
  16. If you pay an RFA at UFA market levels you are hurting your ability to remain competitive in a salary cap world. Subban has NO CHOICE but to sign with the Habs or try to find an offer sheet to force their hand. Why would you want to pay more then you should when payroll dollars are a limited resource in the NHL??? Imagine paying Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galchenyuk and say our next 1st round draft pick all at $6M+ within 2 years...instead of the RFA deals where they are manageable...that's almost half your salary cap on 5 guys. You wouldn't be able to surround them with any quality UFA's...so, great, you have a good young core but you can't afford anything more because you didn't manage money well and wanted to be a "nice guy" and pay Subban as a top 15 d-man despite his RFA status. Bear in mind...for some teams signing guys to offer-sheets is about 2 things: identify the young guys you be willing to take a risk on at a UFA type deal. If the team matches the offer sheet you used then you are also limiting their ability to compete against you in the UFA market. You're advocating we simply do it without provocation...
  17. I think it's certainly arguable that Subban is better then Price of the same time...Price was still regarded as being in the top 2-3 of young goaltenders in the sport at a position that plays every minute of a game and where each team only has 2 of them in a game as opposed to 6 d-men who play 15-22 minutes a game. You could easily argue that Price had more organizational importance and even that his results leading up to that point were as impactful. JMHO.
  18. Why would you overpay a player when the ONLY team that is bidding on his services is YOU. Does that make sense to you? If he is signed to an offer sheet by another team then the Habs have a choice. No team is going to sign him to an offer sheet that the Habs would easily match (ie. no one signs him to a $5M offer sheet)...they would sign him to a very long and significant deal. So, does a team think that signing Subban for over $6M a year for 7+ years is a good move? If he is signed to that kind of deal then the Habs have a choice...either they do it or let him go in what is a defacto trade (bearing in mind that they also keep the cap room...so it's a number of draft picks plus whatever they sign with the cap room). Without an offer sheet the Habs would be utterly stupid to offer more then fair market value unless they want to sign him past his RFA years. I think you are totally not understanding the concepts of markets, risk vs. reward and leverage.
  19. Those points are less meaningful then the fact Subban and his agent can't create much of a competitive market. It is hard to see a GM put out an offer sheet on Subban given the lock out that just ended. But it's really the only way they can force the Habs hand. If someone offers Subban a $6.2M offer sheet I'd let him walk and take the picks.
  20. Pretty sure he was saying $8M over a 2 year period which is hardly delusional...I assume you were thinking he meant $7m to $8m per year...which would indeed be crazy.
  21. Give him his 5 games and send him back to the minors. Trade Bourque, Cole and Gionta this year for draft picks/prospects at the deadline (when is that this year??)...replace them at that point with Leblanc, Palushaj and Gallagher (or whoever else is playing well in the AHL) for the remainder of the season. Attempt to trade up into the top 3 picks again to get another top shelf young Forward (assuming we don't finish there...lol). Next year you have Galchenyuk and the newly drafted top 3 guy. Go out and sign a couple of top 6 UFA's to replace Cole and Gionta...which, honestly, should be doable as they aren't exactly huge stars (though they are quality players). That should be enough to allow the Habs to have effectively "rebuilt" before the start of next season...sure, the young "stars" might need a year or two but this type of move puts the Habs on pretty much the same level as Edmonton is right now. Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, another top 3 pick, Subban, Price would rival Hall, Yakupov, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins from a young talent perspective. Surround that with a couple of good vet pick-ups to go with quality guys like Pleks, Markov, Gorges, Emelin, DD/Eller and you've got 3 good lines, defensive depth and loads of young stars in the making. I'm willing to let a short season be a write-off to accelerate the re-build effort. Hell, I was willing to see them do it before the short season...now I see it as a virtual must... Whoever wins in a short season will forever have the legacy of winning in a crappy short year that didn't have a legit training camp, is likely going to be plagued by injury issues for most teams, has lost some fans (at least in the short term), etc. Just won't be the same thing as winning after a long 82 game season with fans back into the feeling...
  22. blah...an average of $4.5M a year offer over 4 years is very fair and probably slightly more then he should get at this point. Just go there and be done with it. If he doesn't like it then offer him 2 years at $4M per...if he looks good over those 2 years he'll have a chance to renew with a bigger raise for a longer time frame. If he wants longer term security then his agent needs to understand they aren't going to pay him TODAY for the player he MAY become...they need to make that known. If someone wants to throw him an offer sheet (which I think would skewer that GM so soon after the lock-out) then let them try...and then decide if you want to keep him at a dollar figure that is probably still going to be less then he allegedly wants now.
  23. Yeah...cause the >46% marginal tax rate isn't good enough...lmao. If you have an income level that qualifies you as "rich" then you pay more then your fair share of taxes across this great country...even moreso in provinces like Quebec. I hope to god they find a way to keep Gomez off the team and that Galy finds a way to play himself onto the club in a meaningful role. Frankly, I'm still hoping the Habs find a way to set themselves up for another strong draft this year, even at the expense of what is effectively a write off season in my mind. Sure, there will be a playoffs and champion but if there is another year worth having a bad one then this is it...short season, lots of already pissed off fans and, after last years draft, the team is close to turning around a re-building effort very quickly...I guess the only positive to Gomez potentially making the club is that he sucks and will help to that end.
  24. For one thing Subban won't get you Yakupov by himself. I think the sentiment of homerism in believing that is insane...and I love watching Subban play. But no way he is worth the top overall draft pick on his own. So, yes, if it was even a remote possibility to do that deal straight up then you do it. I'm actually shocked anyone would want to do otherwise. As for D depth...they simply clear some salary space and sign a top 4 dman...at worst they have a mediocre to average D for this season. The Habs D without Subban is terrible if Markov comes back...not a top 10 group but Gorges, Markov, Kaberle, Emelin, Bouillon, Diaz is going to give enough to be solid on the PP and on the PK most nights. Frankly, I would then trade Gionta, Cole, Gomez (if you could), Bourque, Eller/DD (one, maybe both) and Kaberle at the trade deadline for mostly prospects, picks and expiring salaries. Rather then a bottom 10 finish you also now likely finish with another top 3 pick... If they magically had both Galy and Yakupov already...I would say the Habs rebuild would be done given that they'd then have loads of cap room next off-season to sign 3-4 quality guys...money enough to sign say a top 4 d-man and among the best 2-3 wingers to add to those prospects.
  25. Can't believe someone said Bourque was overrated...wow...I hate the Bruins but lets give credit where it's due. I hope all the people in here that think the Habs should open up the pocket book big time, for a lengthy period, based on a "maybe", and at a time where he has limited leverage in the negotiation, are never running a business. I'd hate to see your household budgets. As a fan, I don't care if the team spends max dollars from a cost standpoint...in fact, I prefer it. However, I do want them to spend those dollars intelligently in a cap environment.
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