tomh009
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Posts posted by tomh009
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24 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:
I thought about the same thing, I am still thinking. I think it might have something to do with a team outside the top ten winning the lottery and can only move up 10 spots. So let's say they move from 12 to 2 and then the Habs win the 2 slot lottery but that is already taken so they move to 3 instead??? Maybe
I think you have it right. Flyers have a 5.1% chance of winning (and drafting second); if that happens, Habs have an 8.6% chance of winning the second draw, and that would result in a roughly 0.3% probability of drafting third, behind the Flyers.
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49 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
A-game Anderson would be a great addition to the 3rd line ... and could have value at the trade deadline ... I wouldn't want to trust that he stays at that level for the following two seasons.
A-game Anderson has value, but his game is effectively a solo effort, so the linemates need to play accordingly. I give you the Armia-Newhook-Gallagher line (with two of the most maligne forwards we have) as the counterexample: the three players play with each other, look for each other and work together to create scoring chances.
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24 minutes ago, habscout said:
Brian, any idea how much his bonus for scoring 20 goals will be?
$250K.
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Definitely cheaper. Some of the broadcasts are a bit dodgy, though, at least on my friend’s unit. At $200 I’m willing to pay it to get a decent broadcast.
Your mileage may vary! 🙂
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9 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:
It's time to give up some quantity for quality.
The trouble is that not many don't want to give up quality if all they get is quantity.
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2 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:
I missed them too. I need to get a hockey package next year as it sounds like Hutson might be fun to watch. A lot of the Habs games are blacked out in Edmonton, regional restrictions blah blah blah However I was able to watch Washington and Philly.
Sportsnet top package has no blackouts (outside the Habs region) and you can likely get it for $200 for the season.
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Maybe not outright stinko, but definitely not as good as Reimer.
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3 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Just from highlights, Hutson is very difficult to cover because of insane edge work.
Teams learned to play against Caufield, to prevent or at least expect passes to him. Caufield has now learned to be more versatile, though.
Learning what Hutson can do, though, doesn't necessarily help as much in playing against him.
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6 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
Am I correct that Habs have clinched 5th worst, regardless of how the 'Yotes do tomorrow, by virtue of fewer regulation wins? Only SJS and Chicago have fewer, and can't catch the Habs in their final game(s).
They have clinched sixth. Fifth if the Coyotes secure at least a point tomorrow.
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I want to see Hutson in the shootout.
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I couldn't watch last night's game so this is my first time watching him (in the NHL). It's damned impressive what he's able to do. He's quick, he has moves and he looks like his vision is superb. Watching him on PP, or taking the shot for Slafkovsky's goal was really impressive for a kid in his second NHL game--and yet Detroit knew what he could do, from yesterday's game, and had no answer.
I'm feeling super optimistic about Hutson at the moment. Maybe too optimistic. But these are not just Poehling-lucky goals, this is a display of skill.
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3 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:
The way Detroit had us hemmed in our zone in the third was ridiculous. I think they hit the post or crossbar around 8 or 9 times during the 2nd and 3rd periods. It really highlighted our weakness on D.
(...)
If we have an infusion of talent and a substantial upgrade in the middle six (from our roster I think that would only be Dach, Newhook, and Roy), and the Armia-Evans-Gallagher is the the 4th line, we can make a push to be a playoff team. But that means we basically need one legit scorer for the second line, and 2/3 of the third line.
... weakness on D, made worse by the absence of Guhle and Xhekaj. But at least on D, I think we can expect steady improvement over the next handful of years as our prospects mature into NHL players, and then grow their skills in their first few years in the league.
Forwards are more challenging. Top line (Caufield, Suzuki, Slafkovsky) looks good. Dach, Newhook and Roy could potentially be a second line, or else give us a strong 3C (if we have another top-six winger from somewhere).
Bottom-six, though, we have the three you identified (Armia, Evans and Gallagher), plus Dvorak and Anderson. RHP? Heineman? Probably none of Pezzetta or Ylonen, unless as a 13th forward. I expect Beck and Mesar will need time in the AHL, as will likely any 2024 draft pick. That's not a super-encouraging bottom six, no matter how you arrange it, so we would need to hope that Hughes can trade picks and/or D prospects for some credible forward strength. Or sign Monahan to a reasonable UFA contract.
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40 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Again I learn new stuff!
I thought all bonuses were”baked in” to the current year. Meaning that cap space was already set aside in case that player makes their bonuses.
Usually yes, but not if we are using LTIR ...
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20 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:
Don’t we also have to resign Guhle, or is that the following year? Slafkovsky is eligible for an extension this year as well.
Guhle has another year. Barron and Xhekaj are the only ones that I'm 100% confident will get new contracts next season. But Pearson, White and Wideman will drop off the roster, as will Edmundson's retaind salary and Alzner's buyout. Probably Ylonen, too, although he might be traded so salary coming back from that. But from the other five, it's over $7M freed up, plus the cap goes up by $4M.
Montembeault's extension kicks in, though, and that will eat a little over $2M of the $11M or so above.
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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:
What's particularly interesting is that Tuch got a one-way AHL deal. Usually it's ATO/PTO deals at this time of year. I assume that lets them pay him more, offsetting some of the foregone money by not signing an ELC that starts this season.
If his ELC would have started this season, how much would he have actually received? Maybe 1/82 or 1/41 of the salary, plus the signing bonus?
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Only one point. The first point for Hutson on a lovely pass. And two unusually pretty goals for Gallagher!
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17 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Chairot is the same Dman that loves to shoot the puck but can’t hit the net.
Fond memories friend.
And he can still block shots, too.
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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:
Unless the Habs take a lot of penalties, this is likely one of Savard's lower TOI games of this season ... and Harris/Kovacevic get quite a bit more than their usual 16-17 minutes per game ... but worth it to protect/insulate Hutson.
Halfway through the game, Hutson-Savard is at almost 10 minutes TOI, in spite of a PK for Savard.
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Lane Hutson claims (on Instagram) that Tuch has signed a 2Y ELC.
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19 hours ago, dlbalr said:
He hasn't signed yet. It sounds like things are heading in that direction so I'm surprised it's not done yet.
Marc-Antoine Godin thinks Tuch will sign the deal tonight or tomorrow. He's usually pretty reliable ...
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20 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
Maybe something transformative occurred this year. Anything is possible. But it would be folly to make longer-term decisions based on 6 months of aberrant performance. The plan has to be to trade him - whether now, or later, or at the deadline.
The deadline will give Hughes another six months or so of data. And it's not like waiting will risk the Habs losing a first-rounder in trade value anyway, so my prediction is that Hughes will not trade Armia in the summer. Unless, of course, he were to acquire a better player for that role at the same time.
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It's a wild one out there. Three goals in 95 seconds and now it's 5-4 Coyotes.
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8 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
No doubt they have value ... but where they fit beyond next season will, I-M-O, have more bearing on what (if anything) happens to them this summer, or at the 24/25 deadline.
I have no argument with that. As I said, I think it depends on what deals Hughes makes in the summer and whether he thinks he has better options for those positions. I don't expect that Evans would make much more than his current $1.7M, and Armia would likely cost less than he makes today. Hughes gets paid the big bucks to figure out whether those two (and others) are worth extending, but (at least for me) it's impossible to determine the right choices without knowing what the other puzzle pieces are.
The return for Evans, for example, will surely be just a late-round pick, which really doesn't have much value. And his salary is not onerous, so the big question is who will fill that role in 2025 and beyond. Maybe Beck will be ready? But that is not known yet this summer so I suspect Hughes would not move Evans until he has either another player for this role or higher confidence that Beck will be able to fill it.
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4 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
I expect HuGo to be making moves based on where they want the team to be in 25/26 or 26/27 ... not 24/25.
Yes. But PK will be needed in in 2025-26 as well. Possibly after that, too. 🙂
My point really is that players like Evans and Armia do have value beyond their point production. And that we'll need some capable PK players as well. We'll see what Hughes decides to do in this regard.
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Luke Tuch signed (2 years ELC @ $925K AAV)
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
I'm thinking that Beck might be a better fit for an Armia-type role, although he might ende up playing centre. I expect we'll know much more for both Beck and Tuch a year from now.