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Peter Puck

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Everything posted by Peter Puck

  1. I'm confused by this comment. I think we all agree that Zach Rinaldo has a choice. But don't his employers (and teammates) also have choice? It seems both he and CBJ are exercising their rights to choose a path.
  2. Welcome to the board. I agree with what you said but I'm not sure Suziki is the best example. He played 4 years in the OHL and 1 (playoff) game in the AHL before joinging the Habs as a regular at age 20.
  3. ***IF*** true this certainly puts a different spin on how MB managed things this summer. It really does. If KK was settled on not re-signing then this whole thing played out much better than we could have expected. This now seems like it a huge win for MB from a terrible hand.
  4. I'm not sure how helpful it is to compare us to one of the teams with the best collection of high end players but okay, let's compare the Habs to the Avs in first round draft picks for say, 2009-2019: Pick # Avs Habs 1 1 0 2 1 0 3 1 2 4 2 0 5--8 0 0 9 0 1 10 2 0 11-14 0 0 15-20 2 3 20-24 0 1 25-31 1 4 This makes it pretty clear why the Avs have drafted more top quality players then the Habs.
  5. I also wonder about all the people claiming it is obvious we ruined KK by bringing him up early. What I don't understand is, if we ruined him why is an upper tier team poaching him at the cost of 6.1 million and a 1st and a 3rd. It sure seems like Carolina doesn't think he has been ruined. In fact, they seem to think he will grow into a first line player.
  6. Looking through the teams, it seems most have 7 or 8 of their own drafted players on their current roster. Both Carolina and Colorado are tied with the Habs having 6 drafted players. If Poehling and/or Norlinder make the team we'll be at 7 or even 8.
  7. I'm not convinced our first round drafting/development has been subpar. It's easy to point to players we took who haven't performed well and to players who came after who have. But is there evidence we are worse than average? Everyone here seems to think so and maybe we are. But I would like to see some analysis comparing the Habs to other teams before I accept this.
  8. Let's compare a 21 year old Chrstian Dvorak (rookie) with a 21 year old KK (3rd year in the league). Dvorak in 2016-2017 had 15 goals, 18 assists for 33 points in 78 games. Per game that's 0.19g, 0.23 a, 0.42 pts. KK in 2020-2021 (RS) had 5 goals, 15 assists for 20 points in 56 games. Per game that's 0.09g, 0.27 a, 0.36 pts. KK in 2020-2021 including playoffs had 10 goals, 18 assists for 28 points in 75 games. Per game that's 0.13g, 0.24 a, 0.37 pts. Dvokak has improved (slightly) since then. These numbers don't make it seem like KK will end up better. Plus its clear that C.D. is better defensively and better at faceoffs.
  9. I think Bergeven did really well here even though he had no leverage. Probably we give up our own pick in the mid to high teens and keep the Canes in the mid 20s. So I expect it will cost us 5-10 spots in the draft. However Carolina's pick might end up in the teens as well. Realistically I think this makes us better in the long run than if we kept KK. I would have preferred to keep KK and hope he developed into a quality number 2 but I think that may not happen. If it does then Carolina really hurt the Habs. If it doesn't then we end up slightly better than we would have.
  10. I predict the Habs will release a statement precisely at 5:00 announcing their decision (and any trade if they made one). I'm now hoping they match.
  11. Thanks, I had misunderstood this point. But now I am wondering about the news that KK and the Canes have agreed to an extension to be signed in January. I guess this is illegal but they haven't admitted it has been agreed publicly.
  12. Wait, I thought the Habs were not permitted to talk to KK until they matched. But that quote from 2 years ago from Waddell indicates the Canes were talking with Aho before matching.
  13. I have been thinking about how this whole situation plays out in Carolina. Of course this is only of peripheral interest to the Habs but it might play a role in what happens to KK a year from now if we don't match. My question is the following. What will the Canes players think about this off season and their GM and their owner? They let a promising young goaltender go for practically nothing. They let Hamilton walk because they didn't want to spend 3 million a year more for him. Now they sign KK for a ridiculous amount clearly to poke their finger in the Habs eye. I suspect they will have a number of players wishing they had kept Hamilton and Nedeljkovic. I don't think those players will be very happy. It doesn't send the message that their number one goal is a cup. Can anyone argue that signing KK and letting last year's stars leave is a good hockey decision? It also makes it clear that their GM is not really in control of hockey decisions. Finally how many of them will want large raises since the team is spending 6 million on KK.
  14. No, he is entitled to a qualifying offer of over 6 million (they could try to reduce this to 5 million but that is unlikely). If his team (us or the Canes) doesn't offer him that he becomes a UFA immediately. This is the real problem with this offer sheet. It effectively establishes his salary at at least 6 million for the next 4 years.
  15. If we match, then next summer his QO will be 6 million. We can try to get a reasonable extension but why do you think he would take that instead of becoming a UFA? Unless KK breaks out this year I don't see us paying him 6 million for 22-23 season. If we don't offer him 6 million he can choose to become a UFA. Maybe he would accept a long term deal at 5 million AAV but (1) I am not sure he accepts that without testing the market and (2) he is unlikely to be have convinced the Habs he is worth such a deal by next summer especially with our other RFA's needs.
  16. If we match then next year Carolina will offer sheet Suzuki for 10 million. We would have to match that and let KK go. So Carolina ends up with KK and keeps their picks. We end up paying KK 6 million for 1 year hoping he breaks out (which I doubt he does in this season).
  17. Yes I agree. The OS is almost certainly a big loss for the Habs. But if we don't match this really hurts Carolina. Whichever team ends up with KK will have screwed up their salary structure. The Hurricanes have to sign Niederreitter, Trocheck and Necas next year. All 3 could easily end up with better stats than KK. What will Carolina do then? If we do match we will have the same problem.
  18. If he doesn't have a breakout season he won't be tradeable for anything of value. Which team will be looking for a 35 point forward entitled to a 6 million dollar qualifying offer?
  19. I would be really unhappy if I were a Carolina fan. They let a great prospect go in Nedeljkovic (sp?) and they let Hamilton walk so they could use their remaining cap space on a 6 Million dollar KK who won't even play in their top 6? Even if we match this was a bad use of their money. If we don't match it's just criminal and the only reason I can see is that they are still furious about Aho. I don't think they will be as good this year as they were last year.
  20. Do you think he is worth 6.1 million now and going forward? If so we could match and there is no problem. If he's not then Carolina is going to have to overpay to keep him or else let him walk. This is a dick move by Carolina and every team is going to see that. This means there will be no reticence about offer sheeting any of their players, starting with Martin Necas one year from now. Their players will all know this. If you were Martin Necas would you sign next year for anything less than an over payment?
  21. We don't have to match. If KK turns into a star this year and we don't match then yes Carolina made a good move. But if we let him go, no matter how well he plays they will have to offer him 5+ million next year or lose him for nothing after giving up a 1st and 3rd. No one thinks he is worth that salary now. I don't think he will be worth 5+ million a year from now. I agree this screws us over but that doesn't really help the Hurricanes. They are going to overpay for KK and the only reason I can see is that they want to get revenge. From my point of view exacting revenge is not a good way to make decisions.
  22. I really think this is a mistake by Carolina. They will end up paying 6.1 million for KK and a 1st and a 3rd and then probably let him go for nothing a year from now. Plus they will have to worry about offer sheets on all their players for the next 5 years, and not just from the Habs. It seems like a funny revenge move now but in the long run it makes trouble for them and they get almost nothing out of it.
  23. I think you have to let KK go. We lose him for very little but it is what it is.
  24. Elliotte Friedman tweet: Michael McNiven (MON) settle: $750K NHL/$100K AHL/$110K guarantee
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