Koivu slumps

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Saku Koivu is clearly slumping: in his last 12 games he has 6 points. This is pathetic from a 1st line C. But what interested me is that he seems to go through extended slumps every season - but never this early.

So I did a little digging on the Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey site, which has incredibly detailed info on past seasons, just to verify this and to get a sense of the patterns, if any. (Also to avoid some boring work I'm facing).

-Last season, 2006-07, Koivu suffered a brutal second-half drought from Jan. 2 to Feb. 17, when he bagged 8 points in a 22-game stretch.

-in 2005-06, between Jan 31 and March 21, he had 9 points in 19 games. (One of those games was a 3-point night, so you could redescribe that as 6 points in 18 games ( ! ) if you wanted to be uncharitable).

-in 2003-04, he slumped from March 19 to April 13, scoring 4 points in 12 games.

-No real slump in 2002-03

-in 2001-02, from Jan 2 to Feb 23, he had 10 points in 23 games.

So what can we conclude?

1. Saku Koivu has a pretty consistent pattern of very long slumps. These vary in length from one month to almost three months (05-06). They usually start in January. (Twice the slump began on the same date: Jan. 2). During these slumps he produces at a clip of less than 0.5 points per game - which is less than 40 points extrapolated over an 80 game season.

2. Last season saw the worst such slump (8 points in 22 games).

3. He's never come close to such a serious slump, this early in a season.

THEREFORE:

Either his annual slide has just arrived early, in which case we can expect another 10 games or so, followed by a sudden explosion back into form;

OR Saku's body is breaking down earlier than ever before.

These little researches have made me even more nervous that the latter explanation is the best one.

I wouldn't call for panic. But I hope Gainey is at least considering this frightening possibility.

Edited December 1, 2007 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber

[SAKS-AVENUE]

Saku Koivu is clearly slumping: in his last 12 games he has 6 points. This is pathetic from a 1st line C. But what interested me is that he seems to go through extended slumps every season - but never this early.

So I did a little digging on the Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey site, which has incredibly detailed info on past seasons, just to verify this and to get a sense of the patterns, if any. (Also to avoid some boring work I'm facing).

-Last season, 2006-07, Koivu suffered a brutal second-half drought from Jan. 2 to Feb. 17, when he bagged 8 points in a 22-game stretch.

-in 2005-06, between Jan 31 and March 21, he had 9 points in 19 games. (One of those games was a 3-point night, so you could redescribe that as 6 points in 18 games ( ! ) if you wanted to be uncharitable).

-in 2003-04, he slumped from March 19 to April 13, scoring 4 points in 12 games.

-No real slump in 2002-03

-in 2001-02, from Jan 2 to Feb 23, he had 10 points in 23 games.

So what can we conclude?

1. Saku Koivu has a pretty consistent pattern of very long slumps. These vary in length from one month to almost three months (05-06). They usually start in January. (Twice the slump began on the same date: Jan. 2). During these slumps he produces at a clip of less than 0.5 points per game - which is less than 40 points extrapolated over an 80 game season.

2. Last season saw the worst such slump (8 points in 22 games).

3. He's never come close to such a serious slump, this early in a season.

THEREFORE:

Either his annual slide has just arrived early, in which case we can expect another 10 games or so, followed by a sudden explosion back into form;

OR Saku's body is breaking down earlier than ever before.

These little researches have made me even more nervous that the latter explanation is the best one.

I wouldn't call for panic. But I hope Gainey is at least considering this frightening possibility.

And then?

[Quebecois]

-in 2001-02, from Jan 2 to Feb 23, he had 10 points in 23 games.

So what can we conclude?

1. Saku Koivu has a pretty consistent pattern of very long slumps. These vary in length from one month to almost three months (05-06). They usually start in January.

First of all in 01-02 Koivu played 2 games due to cancer, so i'm not sure where these stats apply. If its actually 00-01 then all bets are off, who were his wingers at that point?

Second, in 05-06 the three months was due to a whole month of olympic hockey where the Habs played just a handful of games in Feb.

Call me the eternal optimist, but i like to think that this means that he will be ready to rock come mid-december and we'll avoid our annual christmas slump!

[Dutch_Habs_Fan]

Not anymore, now i got his jersey he will be on a hot streak!!

[Neech]

Yep, Koivu is pretty frustrating, like most players on this team. Even Higgins, who I'd figure would be more of a reliable consistent type is slumping. Who would have thought Kovalev would be the least frustrating forward (besides maybe Dandenault and Chipchura, but we expect less from them).

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I wonder what would happen if Koivu and Plekanec switched?

[MAK]

I wonder what would happen if Koivu and Plekanec switched?

actually, kovalev should switch with higgins.

higgins, plek and andrei was a great line last year.

ask ryder or latendresse to drive to f******g net and let koivu and kovalev do the rest.

[CBHabs_fan]

I'm definitely aware of his slumps and those stats dont surprise me. But you can only produce by yourself for so long. He has been chronically paired with average wingers, as we all know. Now this year, he is with a very talented Higgins, but how many chances has he missed this year, really. Koivu should have 5-10 more points based on Hig's missed chances (particularly early in the year).

Now the whole line is slumping. Lats is not exactly injecting life into the line IMO and should be a 3rd liner for now.

I think if you watch every game, like most of us do, you see that Koivu creates scoring opportunities every game, even in his bad games. Every player slumps every year, but Koivu has never really had linemates to help him out of his slumps. (Though Ryder and Lats have fed off HIM for the last few years)

[JMMR]

I agree Koivu has been terrible of late.

I hate watching him go out there and accomplish nothing I hope he snaps out of it soon.

[mathieu30]

Not anymore, now i got his jersey he will be on a hot streak!!

Voila! I'm going to trade for him in my fantasy league..

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

First of all in 01-02 Koivu played 2 games due to cancer, so i'm not sure where these stats apply. If its actually 00-01 then all bets are off, who were his wingers at that point?

Second, in 05-06 the three months was due to a whole month of olympic hockey where the Habs played just a handful of games in Feb.

Call me the eternal optimist, but i like to think that this means that he will be ready to rock come mid-december and we'll avoid our annual christmas slump!

Sorry, that should be 2000-01.

I hope you're right, but it's a pretty strong pattern.

Myself, I wouldn't be adverse to the thought of Bob sniffing around to see whether Saks would consider being reunited with his pal Rivet in San Jose. Marleau might make a decent change to the core.

[SAKS-AVENUE]

Sorry, that should be 2000-01.

I hope you're right, but it's a pretty strong pattern.

Myself, I wouldn't be adverse to the thought of Bob sniffing around to see whether Saks would consider being reunited with his pal Rivet in San Jose. Marleau might make a decent change to the core.

Ya you said it TCC! Man, that would be great. I hope Gainey is reading your post.

Koivu- 5G, 15A-20 points

Marleau-4G, 7A 11 points

That's this years stats, or are you looking at last years 39 points Marleau got as opposed to Saks 75 points.

All you would get in that trade is someone else to bash, and Gainey could own the title of DUMBEST TRADE EVER. PLEASE.

[Fanpuck33]

That's this years stats, or are you looking at last years 39 points Marleau got as opposed to Saks 75 points.

I'm not advocating such a dumb trade, but Marleau had 78 points last year, not 39.

[SAKS-AVENUE]

I'm not advocating such a dumb trade, but Marleau had 78 points last year, not 39.

Woops you are correct. I looked at TSN stats and 39 points is what he is on pace for this year. For the record, I do like Marleau and would love to see him in a Habs uniform helping Koivu not whats suggested above.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

OK, OK, let's stay cool. Marleau had 86 and 79 points in his last two seasons. He's also 28 years old, bigger and younger than Koivu, with way less accumulated damage. He also obviously brings less than Saks in terms of intangibles and leadership. I don't say that he's 'better than Koivu.' But I'll be willing to bet he'll be better than Koivu in 2-3 years. My point is less that Koivu spends about 1/3 of every season producing at the level of a 4th-liner, but that it is very disturbing that he's hit this phase of the season, this early in the season. IF we want to entertain the possibility that Koivu might be starting to break down, then a trade like this might be the way to go. And yes, Marleu is struggling - but he's a proven player who might benefit from a change. Chill.

[Quebecois]

I think I'd cry if we ever traded Saku, i never want to see him in another uniform.

His value is also greater to us than what he would fetch in a trade.

[lazy26]

I think I'd cry if we ever traded Saku, i never want to see him in another uniform.

His value is also greater to us than what he would fetch in a trade.

I don't think I would cry... I KNOW I would. Koivu is more than his points, but the fact remains that we still need a #1 centre.

[MAK]

I think I'd cry if we ever traded Saku, i never want to see him in another uniform.

His value is also greater to us than what he would fetch in a trade.

with all he's done for this franchise and the community, if we're not going to be competitive soon, he should be traded to a contender...maybe the wild so he can play with mikko.

[brobin]

Koivu does suffer slumps. We ususally blame his wingers, but Koivu is not playing well. Its not like he is serving up perfect passes that higgins is missing. Koivu is struggling to make decent passes. Most of Higgins success has been self generated.

I don't advocate trading Koivu, but people need to understand that he has never been an elite number one centre. He is a low end number one guy and getting older all the time.

Gainey wanted to bring in Briere to move Koivu down to the second line. That is how you upgrade the team.

If we had to, I would trade pleks for a number one centre (clearly we need to offer more then that). That would move Koivu down to replace Pleks and you would all have the Koivu / Kovalev line you desire.

Most importantly, keeping Saku means you keep his intangibles. I see no reason he cannot retire a habs, but he is not going to retire as the habs number one centre.

[sbhatt]

I dont' think you can keep Koivu and pay a legit number-one centre though. You'd most likely have to trade him as a salary dump.

[Canajun]

I'd like to bring in a real #1 centre too who averages 1 point plus per game (we absolutely need one), but we wouldn't have to trade Plekanec nor Koivu to accommodate one. I'd just make Saku 2nd line centre and move Plekanec to the wing - I think he'd be okay with it and he's just as effective there. Plekanec is gonna be gold, I would not trade him.

[smon]

All players slump...

Just take a look at Marleau, who everyone seems high on. He's slumping right now.

[KoZed]

I guess Carbo is also losing patience with Saku. Tonight Koivu will start the game centering the 3rd line between Smolinski and Streit.

About damn time...

[SAKS-AVENUE]

All players slump...

Just take a look at Marleau, who everyone seems high on. He's slumping right now.

The power of Habs fans thoughts!!! No wonder no one wants to play here.

[Canajun]

wow, Koivu on the 3rd line. That's a surprise. Poor ol' Koivu, age and injuries are catching up with him a little but you know what I think is a major factor in his malaise this year? He's fed up with losing and spinning his wheels. The man wants to win a Stanley Cup so bad with the Canadiens and he just feels things aren't getting any closer. It's like he's almost given up in disgust. I can understand how he feels.