Fanpuck33 Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 So, how long will it be before Dusty Baker ruins the brilliant arm of young gun Johnny Cueto? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 The Cardinals Mafia strikes again I swear they're the most powerful force in Stl, its creepy. http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/co...05?OpenDocument Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Is he really that wicked? Who's your favourite sports writer? will carroll Joe Sheehan and most of all: the boys from firejoemorgan.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 who do they write for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 will carroll baseball prospectus Joe Sheehan baseball prospectus and most of all: the boys from firejoemorgan.com self evident gordon edes at the boston globe and Richard Justice from the Houston Chronicle are also really good. sonsofsamhorn is also a fantastic red sox centric blog that has guys like tangotiger and Eric Van. Very much worth reading. Bill James is obviously one of the kings as well. firejoemorgan.com is definitely a must read for anybody into baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 sabermetrics is boring, sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 sabermetrics is boring, sorry. like so often - you are wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 you're taking it the wrong way. I'm not anti-saber I just like having a mix of opinions. Saber reminds me of sociology class in discussing economic systems. One side is the Laissez-faire and the other is the command economy. Why can't there be a middle ground? We does everything have to be on stats. etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 you're taking it the wrong way. I'm not anti-saber I just like having a mix of opinions. Saber reminds me of sociology class in discussing economic systems. One side is the Laissez-faire and the other is the command economy. Why can't there be a middle ground? We does everything have to be on stats. etc. I am not taking it the wrong way. Your analogy is incorrect and your premise is foolish- when people advocate an economic model they discuss statistics, real world examples, experiments and testable theories. SABR is about looking at facts, data and determining which strategies are successful and which are not. If bunting were generally a good strategy, sabermetric analysts would advocate it, but it ain't. This isn't like the difference between economic models - it is like the difference between evolutionists and young earth creationists. Everybody agrees that there is a certain amount of baseball that is "intangible", we just disagree about how much. The idea that people who know something about baseball statistics have no appreciation for the magic and randomness of the game is silly. We know that there are good clubhouse guys and bad clubhouse guys and that a poison atmosphere around the team can hurt its ability to focus on the game. We also know that person-to-person chemistry is almost completely unpredictable on a 25 man roster and that it is probably better to find good players than ones who get along. I'd rather have a jerk who has a .440 OBP than a really nice guy with a .310 OBP. Do clutch hitters exist? Perhaps, but we can't really quantify it so it seems a bit silly to pay for it. How would you know if you were getting your money's worth? Do I get really excited when Ortiz is at the plate in a close/late situation? Of course. How many wins will David Eckstein's grittiness earn the Blue Jays? More than his mediocre offensive and defensive acumen will lose? Doubtful. You think numbers are boring? Well I have news for you man - baseball is a game of numbers. The old guard just use different numbers. The anti-sabermetric crowd thinks that pitchers can be judged by wins, and batters can be judged by batting average and RBI. They think position defense can be judged by fielding percentage. The traditional baseball community does not disagree with the use of numbers, they simply use stupid numbers. I do not need to find middle ground with people who think that the RBI is a useful statistic - they are wrong. Much of the old guard - guys like Joe Morgan, Bill Plachke, John Kruk - are dinosaurs and if you are learning baseball from them you will end up ignorant. Rather than ask why people who use newer, more accurate and predictive statistics not use the old, uninformative statistics is silly. Once it is proven that OBP is better than batting average to chart a player's acumen at the plate, why should I pretend that batting average is a good metric? Why should I care if Joe Morgan or Steve Phillips thinks Derek Jeter is a good fielder if statistics prove otherwise? Should sabermetric analysts look for a middle ground with the old guard? Why should I care that Eckstein or Juan Pierre are gritty and touch? How about the fact they ain't great at baseball? I think the old guard needs to take bout 100 steps towards sabermetrics before modern baseball analysts take a step back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 Couple of big wins by the Jays, be really nice to get a sweep tomorrow. Litsch was our only starter to not give us a quality start the first time through the rotation and yeah still went 5 and only gave up 2. Simonus, I find it funny that you picked on Eckstein the same day he went 2 for 5 with 3 RBI against the Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 baseball is all about unpredictability as well. The stats can lie, they're not the be all to end all. They do work but not in every case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 5, 2008 Share Posted April 5, 2008 baseball is all about unpredictability as well. The stats can lie, they're not the be all to end all. They do work but not in every case. but stats acknowledge unpredictability. The better stats tell more, the lesser stats tell less, your eyes can lie too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Couple of big wins by the Jays, be really nice to get a sweep tomorrow. Litsch was our only starter to not give us a quality start the first time through the rotation and yeah still went 5 and only gave up 2. Simonus, I find it funny that you picked on Eckstein the same day he went 2 for 5 with 3 RBI against the Sox I don't dislike Eckstein so much as I dislike the way reporters treat Eckstein. 2 for 5 is a very good day and undoubtedly Eckstein has had and will have good days. Do you think that over the course of the season, however, he will be anything more than an average major leaguer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 From the Freakonomics blog: a Q&A with the godfather of modern baseball analysis - Bill James. Funny and insightful - a true baseball scientist. More than anyone else in baseball, he knows what it is he does not know. http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008...ball-questions/ interesting snippets: Q: Is clutch hitting a repeatable/retain-able skill? A: I don’t know. ... Q: How important are good-hitting pitchers to the success of an offense in the N.L.? A: Exactly as important as good-fitting underwear on a long drive. ... Q: Has looking at the numbers prevented you from actually just enjoying a summer day at the ballpark? Have we all forgotten the randomness of human ballplayers? By reducing players to just their numbers can we lose sight of the intangibles such as teamwork, friendships, and desire. A: Does looking at pretty women prevent one from experiencing love? Life is complicated. Your efforts to compartmentalize it are lame and useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 : How important are good-hitting pitchers to the success of an offense in the N.L.? A: Exactly as important as good-fitting underwear on a long drive. I'm confused here, working to hard on a paper. Is he saying its very important or isn't? A good hitting pitcher is a valuable weapon in the line up. That's what I think. Pitchers at bats decide at least 10 games a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 : How important are good-hitting pitchers to the success of an offense in the N.L.? A: Exactly as important as good-fitting underwear on a long drive. I'm confused here, working to hard on a paper. Is he saying its very important or isn't? A good hitting pitcher is a valuable weapon in the line up. That's what I think. Pitchers at bats decide at least 10 games a year. I'd rather have one that can pitch. Alex Rodriguez added about 10 wins over a replacement batter. I'd estimate that the average starting pitcher in the NL has about 70 plate appearances over the course of a season and starts about 30 times. To think that the pitcher's 2+ plate appearances in their starts is the deciding factor in 1/3 of their games is ridiculous. Let's look at Dontrelle Willis - one of the best hitting pitchers in the NL. Last season was his greatest offensive performance of his career! He had a .286 batting average, .348 OBP, and .508 SLG - an .856 OPS! Most positional players would be very happy with those numbers. VORP says he added 14.7 runs to his team's offense with that bat. You don't remember how great Willis' year was? Maybe it was because he pitched badly. In 2007, he had a 5.17 ERA, and according to baseballprospectus.com, judging by historical comparisons, he should have won just under 9 games. Instead, with a league average bullpen, he won 10, lost 15. In fact, the Marlins went 15/19 in games he started - which might indicate (tough to say without better numbers) that the team was better off once he went to the showers. Even assuming that the rest of his team had no effect on winning beyond the expected 9 games (and there is no reason to assume that), his bat did not seem to help his team to a better record than if they had played his teammate, Scott Olsen, who was similarly bad at pitching but can't hit to save his life. Olsen, btw, beat his estimated wins by 2.3 - somewhat better than Willis. Is it nice to have a pitcher who can hit well? I guess it isn't bad - but it is a very bad place to concentrate your money and roster space. Most pitchers, due to lack of practice, can't hit very well anyways, so even the better ones are far worse than bench players. If you are relying on the pitcher's bat to win you games, your team is in real trouble. Perhaps you meant all pitcher at bats in all games combined over the course of a season? 10 games is insignificant over that sample set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quebecois Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I don't dislike Eckstein so much as I dislike the way reporters treat Eckstein. 2 for 5 is a very good day and undoubtedly Eckstein has had and will have good days. Do you think that over the course of the season, however, he will be anything more than an average major leaguer? No your right, Eckstein is very average at just about everything he does. I do think he brings some intangibles though and I liked the signing because as much as I love Johnny Mac and his defensive wizardry, he isn't an everyday player, especially for a team that struggled to score runs last year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbhatt Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 I'm glad the Jays look to have a solid team...I'll keep tabs on them this year. I'm disappointed that a team hasn't signed Barry Bonds...he'd be the best damn DH in the American League even at this age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 firejoemorgan destroys some truly stupid stuff written about the jays by the Star's Richard Griffin. http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/04/dude-...ts-mailbag.html http://thestar.blogs.com/baseball/2008/04/...-jays-mail.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafikz Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 Guys, since the Expos left , have you been rooting for the Jays ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Stealth Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 Guys, since the Expos left , have you been rooting for the Jays ? Sure looks like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 9, 2008 Share Posted April 9, 2008 Guys, since the Expos left , have you been rooting for the Jays ? not even a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted April 11, 2008 Share Posted April 11, 2008 Ken Tremendous tells PTG to shut up. http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/04/heady-days.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMPL Posted April 12, 2008 Share Posted April 12, 2008 GO BOSOX GO! Back to Back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pierre the Great Posted April 12, 2008 Share Posted April 12, 2008 (edited) Ken Tremendous tells PTG to shut up. http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/04/heady-days.html See you're proving my point. I never said stat people suck, I meant to imply that they are boring, because all they see in the game is stats. Its like trying to listen to a revolutionary communist when you are trying to talk politics. They are so dead set in their ways, that they will ridicule you for not being a 'revolutionary' and will attack you even though you agree with them 99% of the time, that 1% being the revolution part. These people become depressing to be around, they isolate themselves from reality, they start to 'check out' and lose friends. This is you and your stats, you attack me for not being 110% stat freak and you cannot see the other side, I'm calling for the middle ground, but you say that's still stupid, because stats are god, they don't lie, nonsense. Edited April 12, 2008 by Pierre the Great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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