Permanent Rumour Thread

[tomh009]

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

Lowry left a good chunk of money on the table to stay with the Jets so he might not be the best comparable.  Even if you want to use him, keep in mind that the cap equivalent of that deal today for next season (projecting a $92M cap) is $3.67 million.

And I think that's what we're all hoping for Evans to do to stay with the Habs. Whether he really wants to stay, and is willing to accept slightly less in order to do that, remains to be seen.

 

And some perspective from the Athletic story on the Lowry signing in 2021. Not so much different from the Evans discussion, is it?

 

Quote

In the end, Lowry’s five-year, $3.25 million is not without risk, but it is a relatively low-cost bet on a player who, when healthy, is exactly the third-line centre you’d wish upon a contending team. The Jets may rue a tiny piece of Lowry’s AAV in the back half of his deal, but even if they do, it’s low enough for the consternation to be academic in nature.

 

[alfredoh2009]

8 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Front-loading a contract doesn't do anything from a cap perspective.  The cap hit is total money divided by the number of years so whether it's $3.5M flat, front-loaded, or back-loaded, the cap hit is still $3.5M.  That said, front-loading it makes it easier to trade a player in the final year as more budget conscious teams might find value in a player whose cap hit is less than salary owed so there's that at least.

the second option is what I meant. Thanks!

I had forgotten how to describe it

[JoeLassister]

In 2021, Casey Cizikas signed a 6 years contract with the NYI at 2.5M$ AVV when he was 30yo and the cap was at 81M$ (3% of cap space). 

 

I think we can agree that given the fact that Evans is a righ handed center, we should expect at least 4% of the projected 92M$ salary cap for a player in that role after a season like this (even if, for now, it's a carreer season). 

That is 3.68M$ per year.  Add the "Quebec tax factor"  and we're talking about something like 3,75M$ for 6 years, bringing him to 35yo.  

Now... should we hope for Beck to be able to step up in Evans position sooner than later on much less money when our window opens up ??  That is the question IMO. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

12 minutes ago, JoeLassister said:

In 2021, Casey Cizikas signed a 6 years contract with the NYI at 2.5M$ AVV when he was 30yo and the cap was at 81M$ (3% of cap space). 

 

I think we can agree that given the fact that Evans is a righ handed center, we should expect at least 4% of the projected 92M$ salary cap for a player in that role after a season like this (even if, for now, it's a carreer season). 

That is 3.68M$ per year.  Add the "Quebec tax factor"  and we're talking about something like 3,75M$ for 6 years, bringing him to 35yo.  

Now... should we hope for Beck to be able to step up in Evans position sooner than later on much less money when our window opens up ??  That is the question IMO. 

For me there is 0 chance that I would do 3.68 for 6 years - not a chance. 
 

We all want Evans signed but we need to keep things in perspective here. 
 

Evans is used as a fourth line centre on a team that uses Dvorak as their third line centre. 
 

What about the PK work? PK 1 is Dvorak, Anderson, Savard, Guhle

 

Evans is PK2 

 

If Evans is secondary to Dvorak according to St. Louis, I wonder if folks are romanticizing a really great season? A season bolstered by two good wingers and the Evans line isn't being used as a shutdown line against other team’s top lines. 
 

IDK 

 

I’ve said this before but this Evans stuff is the same thing that led Montreal to overpay for Gallagher, Armia. 
 

I would rather give Evans 2 years at 6 million a season to fill a gap than give Evans 6 years or more. 

[DON]

6 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Evans is used as a fourth line centre on a team that uses Dvorak as their third line centre. 
 

What about the PK work? PK 1 is Dvorak, Anderson, Savard, Guhle

 

Evans is the #1 PK centre and i am guessing St Louis preferred option, going by stats.

FO= Evans 125/Dvorak 80

SH Icetime/gm=Evans 3.08/Dvorak 2:43

[GHT120]

13 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

What about the PK work? PK 1 is Dvorak, Anderson, Savard, Guhle

 

Evans is PK2 

 

Habs forwards PK-TOI

Jake Evans - 3:08
Christian Dvorak - 2:43
Joel Armia - 2:42
Josh Anderson - 1:57

 

No other forwards over 45 seconds

 

 

Habs defencemen PK-TOI

 

David Savard - 3:33
Mike Matheson - 3:27
Kaiden Guhle - 2:29
Alexandre Carrier - 1:58

 

No other defencemen over 1:18

[DON]

I would like to say i would like to see less of Matheson on the PK, but it is doing so well, maybe he focuses better in own end n the PK? 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

46 minutes ago, DON said:

Evans is the #1 PK centre and i am guessing St Louis preferred option, going by stats.

FO= Evans 125/Dvorak 80

SH Icetime/gm=Evans 3.08/Dvorak 2:43

 

37 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

Habs forwards PK-TOI

Jake Evans - 3:08
Christian Dvorak - 2:43
Joel Armia - 2:42
Josh Anderson - 1:57

 

No other forwards over 45 seconds

 

 

Habs defencemen PK-TOI

 

David Savard - 3:33
Mike Matheson - 3:27
Kaiden Guhle - 2:29
Alexandre Carrier - 1:58

 

No other defencemen over 1:18

I don’t know what to think of the TOI stat. 
 

Every penalty yesterday Dvorak started the PK and as far as I can recall, Dvorak always starts the PK. 
 

Maybe that’s about faceoffs

[tomh009]

10 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I don’t know what to think of the TOI stat. 
 

Every penalty yesterday Dvorak started the PK and as far as I can recall, Dvorak always starts the PK. 
 

Maybe that’s about faceoffs

In general, Evans and Armia are the primary PK forwards. It will vary by game and situation, but that TOI stat is not lying.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

When it comes to time of ice, Evans is part of the 1st PK unit and while people like to bring up his 4th line status, Evans is the 5th most used forward in terms of time of ice per game out of all 12+ forwards that we have used. When it comes to 5 on 5 points, Evans is the team’s 3rd leading producer behind only Caufield and Suzuki.
 

There are a combination of reasons that he is the “4th line center” including line chemistry, team chemistry, matchups, and his acceptance of his role but right now he is more like our 3rd line center at worst. It serves no purpose to “demote” other lines publically and hurt the confidence of others but those who follow know that Evans is playing a more prominent role than your average 4th line center.

 

Is there some sort of risk in signing Evans to a contract while taking into consideration that he has had a career year? Of course there is, just like most signings. With that being said, Evans has produced offensively prior to the NHL, is a hard worker and from what I have seen is always striving to get better. This isn’t some floater who puts in no effort. Au contraire. I am not sure why some people are fine with having Dvorak at 4.45 million, which comes off the books next year, and yet are worried in regards to signing Evans even at 3.5-4 mil despite him currently being the better player. (I am sure there are people who are unhappy with Dvorak’s contract, but it hasn’t come up much within this discussion). 

[Lanes World]

Please, don’t give Evans 4 mill. That’s a catastrophe waiting to happen. 
 

It was the same with Danault, he deserved to get paid, just not by the Habs 

[GHT120]

20 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I am not sure why some people are fine with having Dvorak at 4.45 million, which comes off the books next year

I don't think anyone is OK with Dvorak.

[TurdBurglar]

28 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Evans has produced offensively prior to the NHL, is a hard worker and from what I have seen is always striving to get better. This isn’t some floater who puts in no effort.

In that respect a lot of NHL players that don't produce regularly also produced prior to the NHL.  Dvorak, for example, was a bit of an offensive dynamo in junior, putting up nearly 250 point in 158 games.

 

The reality is Evans will get his $3.5m+ contract, probably with 5+ years attached to it.  It's common in the NHL that a player has an amazing year in their contract year, then signs a mid-to-long term deal to big money, then they regress.  It's how teams get saddled with bad contracts.  After that era happening in Montreal causing this rebuild, we need to be getting away from bad contracts in the near future until the team is ready to compete for a cup.  You trade that future for a better present, one that Montreal isn't in position to do right now.

[DON]

2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

 

I don’t know what to think of the TOI stat. 
 

Every penalty yesterday Dvorak started the PK and as far as I can recall, Dvorak always starts the PK. 
 

Maybe that’s about faceoffs

[Dalhabs]

Im more scared of Slafkofskys contract than about giving Evans 4M 4-5 years.

[DON]

6 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

Im more scared of Slafkofskys contract than about giving Evans 4M 4-5 years.

Glass 1/2 full, he still is on 50point pace and we can just hope he has a hot 2nd half, now that back on line #1 again.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

I don't think anyone is OK with Dvorak.

 

Exactly, we just have accepted it and look forward to the end of it. 

[tomh009]

Adding to the faceoff data, here are our forwards from last season and this one:

 

 

Monahan is already gone, if Dvorak and Evans are traded/walk, we will only have one centre better than 50%. Will need to do some work on that ...

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

Signing Evans to 4 Million will also likely change Evans mindset as he will come to camp next year feeling more pressure to perform with higher expectations. I am nervous paying him 4Million/year, Hughes has a tough decision to make. 

[tomh009]

And yet again on the faceoffs looking at the last month and a half, I think we've had the Newhook-Dach-Laine for pretty much the whole time, and yet Newhook has taken as many faceoffs as Dach has. I had not really paid attention to this when watching games, but are Dach and Newhook actually sharing the faceoff duties?

 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Lanes World said:

Please, don’t give Evans 4 mill. That’s a catastrophe waiting to happen. 
 

It was the same with Danault, he deserved to get paid, just not by the Habs 

 

Letting go Danault looks like a huge mistake IMO.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

44 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Signing Evans to 4 Million will also likely change Evans mindset as he will come to camp next year feeling more pressure to perform with higher expectations. I am nervous paying him 4Million/year, Hughes has a tough decision to make. 

That’s all up in the air/speculation. He could just as easily feel motivated to continue and  prove himself. With that being said, even if he takes a step back next year which could be a possibility, he still brings a lot of other elements to the table than points. I do not believe he will simply stop being useful altogether.

 

12 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Letting go Danault looks like a huge mistake IMO.

Agreed. It doesn’t make sense that we believe someone should get paid but by another team when they are actually a useful player. I am certain the Kings have been happy with Danault and the “need” to keep Evans somewhat stems from not having a Danault in the system.

[Helmethead]

Fine. 
 

I’ll be the first to say it. 
 

I think Evans might end up being more valuable that Danault. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

TOI stats don’t lie so obviously Evans gets more PK time than Dvorak. 
 

I still believe that Dvorak starts the PK and I’ll watch for it during tomorrow’s game. 
 

I think Evans is a really tough case

[Peter Puck]

44 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

TOI stats don’t lie so obviously Evans gets more PK time than Dvorak. 
 

I still believe that Dvorak starts the PK and I’ll watch for it during tomorrow’s game. 
 

I think Evans is a really tough case

Dvorak does start every PK but this is because every PK starts with a D-zone faceoff and he is our best FO man.  He is also a pretty good PKer.  But Evans is better.