Permanent Rumour Thread

[Commandant]

55 minutes ago, WildTurkeyXX said:

 

Haha don't give me that "absolute" bologna lol. I said "super safe bet"...

I won't argue the difficulty of finding top 6 talent (at any position), especially at center. However, I haven't read anything in this forum to suggest that anyone here believes any of these prospects, with the exception of Hage project beyond the bottom 6. Also, aside from our need on the second line, we are pretty well stocked with centers with Suzuki, Evans, (the option to re-sign) Dvorak, Hage, Beck, Kapenen, Xhekaj, Davidson etc.

I don't have the numbers, but I would imagine that the ratio of centers to RD in this upcoming draft (and probably just drafts, in general) is at a minimum of 5:1. 

Supply and demand. 

 

 

How many kids playing centre in juniors end up making it as wingers in the pros?\

How many centres vs defencemen bust? is it equal?

How many become top 6 centres, how many become top 4 D?

 

You make these proclamations but you don't consider that your methodolgy could be flawed. 

 

Instead of looking at the draft, look at the NHL right now..... top 6 Cs are the most sought after commodity.  Top 4 RHD are second.  Its close, but thats what teams are looking for. 

But you ignored the main part.... nothing can be a pretty safe bet that we will have to pay more to replace Mailloux, than what Mailloux is worth if you can't tell me....1 ) What is the trade? and 2) Does Mailloux develop into a top 4 Dman?  

Wihtout a crystal ball, declaring something a pretty safe bet with so many unknowns is a fools errand.

 

 

Thats why we discuss proposed trades with players on both sides, so we know what we are getting in return.  Not some guess that we are going to lose a trade without even knowing what is acquired. 

[Commandant]

50 minutes ago, WildTurkeyXX said:

 

I wanted to isolate this one. I've heard this take before and I find it interesting. Not that the statement in and of itself is wrong, but I find it interestingly inconsistent (generally speaking, I haven't known you long enough to speak on your consistency).

This statement could be true, but couldn't we have said the same thing about Hutson? But nobody had an issue tossing him into the lineup, potential defensive liabilities be damned. It's not at all uncommon for high end offensive defensemen to be bad defensively. I just find it interesting that in Mailloux's case, his defense needs to be rounded out before he can even get a look when so many others get a free pass in that department.

 

I've seen him enough at the AHL level, and saw Hutson enough at the NCAA level to say that their defensive games aren't in the same ballpark. 

 

You have to watch the players and evaluate them. 

 

The why doesn't he get a chance in the NHL could be stretched further? why doesn't the 4th D in Trois-Rivieres get a chance in the NHL next year, after all they won the Kelly Cup?  Why doesn't dude down the street playing roller hockey get a chance, yeah he sucks in street hockey, but he might be Lane Hutson?  Of course these examples are ludicrous but it illustrates the point.  You have to earn your chances. 

 

Its a disingenious argument that he's never had a chance and Hutson has.  Hutson was a better prospect and player.  You get your chance to move up based on what you do in lower leagues, and Mailloux's defensive game is BAD at the AHL level.  

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I don’t think we should trade Mailloux unless that is the only piece the other team must have in a 2C trade. 
 

Mailloux gets better at defensive reads and he will surely be a second pairing guy. 
 

Its worth the risk to find out - even if that means he taps out as a PP specialist  

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

The Habs aren’t picking on Mailloux. If he hasn’t had much of a spell up here - or rather if he got sent down after playing 7 games - it’s because they don’t think he’s ready. That’s all there is to it.

 

Hutson, by contrast, got a few games and pretty much immediately made himself indispensable. 

 

I make no pretense whatsoever to know anything but the most basic info about prospects. But I’ve never read anything to suggest that Mailloux is an irreplaceable blue-chip prospect. A good, interesting prospect, yes. I pull for him because I like his redemption arc and think that a guy who went through that may come out the other side as a better man than a lot of pro athletes. And I like his profile as a cannonading d-man with size.

 

And as DON noted, though, we’re not getting a #2C without giving up something that matters. Maybe it’ll be Mailloux, maybe it’ll be something else, but I doubt it will be a 17th overall pick in a middling draft.  Habs fans need to start getting used to the idea that not every trade is going to be a gimmie like Barron for Carrier or Harris for Laine. Do you know how many teams are desperate for top-6 C? That’s a seller’s market big-time.

[WildTurkeyXX]

6 minutes ago, Commandant said:

How many kids playing centre in juniors end up making it as wingers in the pros?\

How many centres vs defencemen bust? is it equal?

How many become top 6 centres, how many become top 4 D?

 

You make these proclamations but you don't consider that your methodolgy could be flawed. 

 

Instead of looking at the draft, look at the NHL right now..... top 6 Cs are the most sought after commodity.  Top 4 RHD are second.  Its close, but thats what teams are looking for. 

But you ignored the main part.... nothing can be a pretty safe bet that we will have to pay more to replace Mailloux, than what Mailloux is worth if you can't tell me....1 ) What is the trade? and 2) Does Mailloux develop into a top 4 Dman?  

Wihtout a crystal ball, declaring something a pretty safe bet with so many unknowns is a fools errand.

 

 

Thats why we discuss proposed trades with players on both sides, so we know what we are getting in return.  Not some guess that we are going to lose a trade without even knowing what is acquired. 

 

Anyone's methodology could be flawed. Mine, yours or anybody else's. To be fair, I've been pretty careful about my proclamations in that regard, generally speaking. But I'm not going to add a disclaimer to the beginning and end of every post. 

 

For your first three questions, I don't know the answers. But the safest presumption (without either of us having to waste an entire day digging around the internet) is that it's proportional. It may or not be, but for discussions sake, I don't think it's unreasonable.

 

For your second point regarding the NHL right now, you may be right. But you could also frame the question "how many top 6 centers are available in FA vs top 4 defensemen? How many have been rumored to be available via trade?". I think you would find that the available talent pool (one way or the other) skews in favor of the centers. Take us, for example. We could all agree that both are positions of need, yes? Seems that wee can talk all day about ideas of who we could acquire to fill our center position. The conversations are much shorter, fewer and further between for RD. I think it's just because there is not a lot to talk about in that department. I think it was you who mentioned Perbix, I seen Fabro in the mix. Anyone else of consequence?

 

And your last point about my use of "pretty safe bet". I fully agree with the questions that you proposed. Even if we re-word the last one to read " does he develop into a top 6?". Let's assume that is his eventual plateau, bottom pair RD. What do you think his trade value is? I know that I can't say for sure, but I continue to hear Mailloux + whenever his name comes up. It really does depend on what's coming back, but at the very least it doesn't sound like he's being thought of a lone asset in a significant trade. What would the cost be for an average, large, bottom pair RD. Again, I don't know the answer, but for discussions sake we could use the rumored ask price for Hague (minus the right handed premium, plus the experience. Maybe we call it a wash?).

 

But in the end, maybe you are correct, and it is presumptuous for me to suggest that it would cost more to replace than we would get in return. But can we at least agree that it's maybe pretty close to equal? And in that case, does it really make sense to rob Peter to pay Paul? Especially considering how many fewer RD we have, anywhere throughout our system?

 

I never said that Mailloux is off limits, no questions asked. I simply said that of Mailloux, Hage, Beck and Kapenen, Mailloux is the one I'm holding onto the tightest.

[Meller93]

mailloux is reminding me of Sheldon Souray. I was only a young whippersnapper when souray was in his prime, but I recall him being poor defensively as well. With a cannon of a shot and snarl to him game

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

3 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

mailloux is reminding me of Sheldon Souray. I was only a young whippersnapper when souray was in his prime, but I recall him being poor defensively as well. With a cannon of a shot and snarl to him game

 

Souray does seem to fit the bill almost perfectly. 

[WildTurkeyXX]

And yes, I'm not meaning to imply that Montreal is treating Mailloux unfair. My comment was directed at commentators and people like us. Just seems like some guys with top 4 offense skillsets get a pass. Pair'em with a responsible partner and hope for the best. But with Mailloux it's different. But maybe Commie's right, maybe I just haven't seen him play enough. Maybe his defense is worst than the rest of the leagues offensive defensemen who are terrible at defense, maybe the gap is that big. Heck if I know...

[GHT120]

16 hours ago, Commandant said:

Its a 500k difference (and Lyubushkin is one year longer) do we really think that Dallas is set on selling dumba and not Lyu?

Lyubushkin played 14/18 playoff games as the Stars 4/5th defenceman ... Dumba was a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs ... I believe they would "pay" to dispose of his contract, whereas Ilya has some trade value.

[GHT120]

14 hours ago, Peter Puck said:

I really want to hang onto Mailloux.  I would only trade him (in a package) for a young quality 2C that we like.

Don't think anyone is hoping to "just trade him".

 

14 hours ago, Peter Puck said:

He may fizzle out but we don't really know what he will become.  If he busts it won't really hurt us too much.  

Depends entirely on the "opportunity lost" by retaining him ... what almost makes everyone right in their opinions is that we likely won't ever know what that lost opportunity was if the habs retain him and he does fizzle out.

[Commandant]

You guys can bring up Sheldon Souray, but I think of a player who was a lot more recent than Mailloux, who Mailloux reminds me of. 

 

Nathan Beaulieu. 

 

Tantalizing tools, size, snarl, good shot, skating, offensive prowess.  All the tools. 

 

I see the same issue with both.... no toolbox. 

[Commandant]

Do I hope he develops that toolbox?  Yes, and its possible (not guaranteed but possible).

 

But if you tell me I can trade him as part of a package for a youngish #2 C who is already proven at the NHL level.... well I'm going to take the top 6 C who is an NHL player, over the prospect who might or might not be an impact defenceman. 

 

That's why the return is important.  I'm not trading him just to trade him.  But if you tell me he's part of the package for a Marco Rossi, or other proven youngish centre, I'm driving him to the airport. 

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, WildTurkeyXX said:

But honestly, the answer to your question is all of them. The only exception would (maybe) be Fowler, that's a close one.

Agreed ... even Suzuki is trade-able in the RIGHT deal ... I-M-O no player is ever truly untouchable ... it all depends on circumstances (e.g., Gretzky's wife supposedly wanting out of Edmonton) and/or the return being offered ... some players (e.g., Suzuki) are on the almost untouchable list.

[Commandant]

There are options for RHD, though we haven't discussed them cause our need is at centre, we haven't focused on it on the board as much. 

 

Just in Free Agency

 

Ekblad,

Burns

Ceci

Jokiharju

Rutta

Fabbro

Klingberg
Perbix

 

 

A trade option I think we might be in on.... K'Andre Miller

[GHT120]

8 minutes ago, Commandant said:

There are options for RHD, though we haven't discussed them cause our need is at centre, we haven't focused on it on the board as much. 

 

Just in Free Agency

 

Ekblad,

Burns

Ceci

Jokiharju

Rutta

Fabbro

Klingberg
Perbix

Quite the range of usefulness and probable AAV/term

 

9 minutes ago, Commandant said:

A trade option I think we might be in on.... K'Andre Miller

I don't follow the NYRs closely ... he is a left-hand shot ... has he been playing the right-side or do you expect the HuGo would shake up the Habs left-side?  

[DON]

2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I don’t think we should trade Mailloux unless that is the only piece the other team must have in a 2C trade. 
 

Mailloux gets better at defensive reads and he will surely be a second pairing guy. 
 

Its worth the risk to find out - even if that means he taps out as a PP specialist  

So he might have good value to other GMs if seen as having OK upside, dosent mean Habs then shouldnt trade him.

Lots of offensive d-man flop in NHL, as coaches just cant trust them when they look just like Sheldon Souray when defending...

 

[Commandant]

36 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Quite the range of usefulness and probable AAV/term

 

I don't follow the NYRs closely ... he is a left-hand shot ... has he been playing the right-side or do you expect the HuGo would shake up the Habs left-side?  

 

I think any high draft pick of Gorton that the Rangers are giving up on, we would kick the tires on.

 

If the rangers are selling a guy at a discount and its someone Gorton once believed in, it might be something we at least look at.

 

Doesnt mean we will make a deal just means that its a player we know Gorton liked once upon a time.

[GHT120]

57 minutes ago, Commandant said:

A trade option I think we might be in on.... K'Andre Miller

Marc-André Dubois/ClickBait30 reading HabsWorld?
https://hockey30.com/nouvelles/coup-de-theatre-a-montreal-kandre-miller-sera-echange/

 

[alfredoh2009]

3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Souray does seem to fit the bill almost perfectly. 

Petry is a better comparison IMO, Mailloux does not have the mean streak Souray had.

 

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, DON said:

So he might have good value to other GMs if seen as having OK upside, dosent mean Habs then shouldnt trade him.

Lots of offensive d-man flop in NHL, as coaches just cant trust them when they look just like Sheldon Souray when defending...

 

Clague is a more recent example of a D that performs great I. The AHL and for short stints in the NHL but that has failed to make the jump.

I believe Mailloux is better, but without him playing regularly in the NHL it is hard to tell

[WildTurkeyXX]

25 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Petry is a better comparison IMO, Mailloux does not have the mean streak Souray had.

 

Is that true? I was under the impression Mailloux has quite the mean streak, himself, no? I mean, I don't know how it compares to Souray's...

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

29 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Petry is a better comparison IMO, Mailloux does not have the mean streak Souray had.

 

 

Depends how smooth Mailloux's play-making game is. Petry was above all a rushing D who could dish the puck. I've always understood Mailloux to be more about a boomer from the point. I dunno how 'mean' he is. Souray was thought to be, basically, Arber Xhekaj when we acquired him (but had a huge spike in his development around age 28 climaxing in that insane 26-goal season). Certainly his PIM totals are a lot higher than Mailloux's. 

[Commandant]

I don't see Petry

 

I still say Beaulieu

[DON]

Mailloux has a lot to offer, but dont think would be a McDonagh or Sergachev-type mistake by trading him.

Especially if it means a quality top six centre is suiting up behind Suzuki next season.

Might just make Suzuki's summer that much better knowing that the 2nd line will be more of a handful for opponents to deal with.

[hab29RETIRED]

4 hours ago, Commandant said:

You guys can bring up Sheldon Souray, but I think of a player who was a lot more recent than Mailloux, who Mailloux reminds me of. 

 

Nathan Beaulieu. 

 

Tantalizing tools, size, snarl, good shot, skating, offensive prowess.  All the tools. 

 

I see the same issue with both.... no toolbox. 

You’re forgetting one huge difference. Souray played with Markov. Beaulieu did not. Would Souray or Komisarik become the players they were without playing with Markov. Without Markov they were shit.