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Worrying Statistic


les_glorieux

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Five Teams Benefitting from the Bettman Point

An overtime or shootout situation inherently has a high degree of randomness. To be sure, the better team is still more likely to win and some players seem particularly suited to the situations found after regulation wins, but reducing things to a next goal wins contest helps to even the playing field.

Aside from that, there’s a lot of variation from one season to the next over which teams make it to the extra frame, and with simply playing in overtime being worth an extra point, it stands to reason that this can have a big effect on the NHL standings.

Take the Phoenix Coyotes as an example. Last season, they played only 11 overtime games, collecting just four wins and 15 points – both totals the lowest in the league. This year, they’ve played in 19 games, managing 33 points – or an 18 point increase based entirely on the back of points recorded after regulation. That’s the difference between 4th in the West and 12th in the West.

Shootout points are even less stable. The New York Rangers led the league in shootout wins last season, with 10. This year they have two, and they’ve gone from collecting 26 points (10-6 record) to taking home just seven points this year (2-3 record). Other teams have fluctuated wildly; for instance the 2007-08 Edmonton Oilers were the best team in league history in the shootout, with a 15-4 record, but the year prior they’d gone 3-3 and the year following they went 6-4. Or to express it in terms of total points, they went from nine to 34 and then back down to 16.

The point in all of this is that some teams are going to be blessed with Bettman points, while others are not. I’m not especially worried about changing the three point game, but it is important to know which teams have been benefitting from it – and consequently might be overrated heading into the post-season. What follows are the five teams gaining the most from the NHL points system this season.

1. Montreal Canadiens

OT/SO Record: 15-6-0

Points Over Average: 12

Standings Change: 7th to 14th

The Canadiens have had phenomenal luck this season, not only playing in a lot of three point games but also boasting an impressive 0.714 winning percentage in those contests. Last year they were just 0.500 in extra time, and if they had recorded the league average (24 points) so far this season they’d be sitting in 14th in the East rather than in one of the final two playoff spots.

Edited by les_glorieux
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I'd be more worried if I didn't know that a lot of those OT/SO wins occured in the first couple months of the season with no Markov. We lucked out with all those extra points while he was gone, because we were quite rightfully a bad team without him.

Now I'm not as worried. Remember, after two months I think we only had two regulation wins. All the rest were Bettman freebies.

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I'd be more worried if I didn't know that a lot of those OT/SO wins occured in the first couple months of the season with no Markov. We lucked out with all those extra points while he was gone, because we were quite rightfully a bad team without him.

Now I'm not as worried. Remember, after two months I think we only had two regulation wins. All the rest were Bettman freebies.

I agree. This could be seen as a troubling stat, for sure. It really helps measure how you will do in the post season. When the team was getting these wins, they had no chemistry and Marky was out. I am not as concerned as I would be if the SO wins were throughout the season.

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This argument is a two way street. Suggesting that if Montreal has only gotten the league average of points beyond regulation would mean that there are some games unaccounted for, the games they played that puts them above the league average of overtime games played. It's unfair to assume they would win or lose all of these games, so obviously there are some points to be made up there, to add onto the 14th position they *should* be in.

So this stat shouldn't be THAT worrying.

The stat doesn't worry me too much. Not to mention it takes a whole different set of nuts to be successful in the kind of pressure an overtime playoff game would bring, a level of pressure which the Montreal players *may* be more ready for, based on their overtime games played during the season (not to mention, we have several cup winners on the team.)

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This argument is a two way street. Suggesting that if Montreal has only gotten the league average of points beyond regulation would mean that there are some games unaccounted for, the games they played that puts them above the league average of overtime games played. It's unfair to assume they would win or lose all of these games, so obviously there are some points to be made up there, to add onto the 14th position they *should* be in.

So this stat shouldn't be THAT worrying.

The stat doesn't worry me too much. Not to mention it takes a whole different set of nuts to be successful in the kind of pressure an overtime playoff game would bring, a level of pressure which the Montreal players *may* be more ready for, based on their overtime games played during the season (not to mention, we have several cup winners on the team.)

That's a really good point Seb. The team did not lose in 5 minutes of OT, so who's to say that in a playoff game, they would have lost.

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I understand the interest in this stat. It's valid. However, an OT win is different from a SO win; the former can be considered completely legit - it's still your team, as a unit, vs. theirs, beaten fair and square. The S/O win truly is random, in that shootouts have nothing to do with hockey and no relation to a team's merits or demerits.

So to really make sense of this, you'd need to calculate where they Habs might be without their S/O wins specifically. According to the NHL stats page at

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetch...overtimeRecords

Montreal is 7-4 in shootouts. That's not that jaw-droppingly abberant. If we were 6-5, we'd have two fewer points - hardly a shattering blow at this point. Nonetheless, there is no denying that shootouts make a difference; what I deny is that these totals represent some unusually extravagant artificial bloating of our totals in 2009-10.

OT wins, meanwhile, should be considered 100% valid. If I calculate correctly from the info on the page linked above, the Habs are 8-2 in OT. That's absolutely outstanding. And instead of being 'worried,' we should be ecstatic that we have a squad that's so lethal in extra minutes. Somehow, a stat that is ultimately proof of the Habs's merit as a team is turned, by shallow media analysis, into a failing. Only the highly-paid media pros could be so ignorant.

The point for an OTL is also valid IMHO, since I consider ties to be a fully adequate outcome, as they were in hockey for generations until people got the idea that they impeded the marketing of the game in the USA.

(You may have inferred that I'm no fan of the shootout. When it was introduced, a lot of the chatter was that while it would be wrong to decide playoff games by shootout, it was OK for the regular season because those games 'matter less.' But in fact in today's NHL playoff races are so close that for most of the league, participation in the playoffs hinges to a significant degree on the artificial side-show of the shootout. Shootouts may have drama but they should not be part of the game).

Anyway: this is a stat that proves we're a better team than people think, not the reverse. Be of good cheer.

Edited by The Chicoutimi Cucumber
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Willis also uses Phoenix as an example and then references their 11 OT games as opposed to their 19 games

last year as he manipulates it to show that it is random.

Well, the fact that Dave Tippet is a defensive minded coach who emphasizes defensive commitment and a strategy

that is suited to play tight games is completely ignored, as is a comparison to the way Gretzky coached last season.

This analysis is what also leads us to believe that Bryzgalov is just having a great year and is in now way a

beneficiary of the Tim Thomas effect.

A simple glimpse into the past would have shown that Dave Tippet lead the Stars to 22, 15, 21 and 21 OT games since

the shootout was introduced. The number 19 doesn't seem so random anymore does it?

I appreciate alot of what Willis has to say, but he missed the mark with the Phoenix comparable.

As for the Habs, maybe they wouldn't have relied on OT had Markov not missed 2 months and half their team was not

new to each other. All variables that have been ignored to focus on the 2D world of assessing numbers alone.

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The particular analysis they've done seems pretty meaningless to me. It seems to me that a team with a poor W/L record in OT is benefiting a lot more than a team with a good W/L record. I mean, the Habs have only earned 6 points because of the "Bettman point." If you take away all the points teams have gained from OT/SO losses, Montreal would be tied for 5th in the East, and 2 points behind Ottawa in the division instead of 4 points behind Buffalo.

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I’m not especially worried about changing the three point game, but it is important to know which teams have been benefitting from it – and consequently might be overrated heading into the post-season.

Not quite the point of your OP, but the extra point really annoys me -- there should only be two points handed out regardless of the outcoming.

Or else take the approach of the English Premiership soccer, and give the regulation-time winner three points.

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Everyone has an opinion on points given in OT/SH but it remains that we scored these goals and the other teams didn't on these nights.

For my part, I'd like to see the points system they used during the Olympics.

Reg / OT win = 3 pts

SH win = 2 pts

SH/OT loss = 1 pt

Reg loss = 0 pt

Montreal is 7-4 in shootouts. That's not that jaw-droppingly abberant. If we were 6-5, we'd have two fewer points - hardly a shattering blow at this point. Nonetheless, there is no denying that shootouts make a difference; what I deny is that these totals represent some unusually extravagant artificial bloating of our totals in 2009-10.

This is wrong sir.

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For my part, I'd like to see the points system they used during the Olympics.

Reg / OT win = 3 pts

SH win = 2 pts

SH/OT loss = 1 pt

Reg loss = 0 pt

Exactly. There should be some added incentive to win in regulation. Although I'd leave the OT win at 2 points as well.

Edited by tomh009
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Well I think a team's OT record predicts something about the playoffs. A good OT record in the regular season predicts a good OT record in the playoffs. There is a significant difference in that regular season OT is 4 on 4. Still the fact that we play especially well when the next goal wins the game has to be seen as a good sign for the playoffs.

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Everyone has an opinion on points given in OT/SH but it remains that we scored these goals and the other teams didn't on these nights.

For my part, I'd like to see the points system they used during the Olympics.

Reg / OT win = 3 pts

SH win = 2 pts

SH/OT loss = 1 pt

Reg loss = 0 pt

OT wins were only 2 points at the Olympics. Which is the correct way to award the points. Hockey's focus should reward 5 on 5 play since it's the majority of the game anyways. Plus, it makes every game worth the same amount of points.

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OT wins were only 2 points at the Olympics. Which is the correct way to award the points. Hockey's focus should reward 5 on 5 play since it's the majority of the game anyways. Plus, it makes every game worth the same amount of points.

oops. Even better then.

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If two teams can't decide a game in regulation time, I would take a point away and let the winning team take home a point. This way at no time would a team be playing for the tie and you would not be rewarded extra for something that should have been decided in regulation. Furthermore you would not be gaining on outside teams who had no ability to effect the game. I would remind you also that the reason the three point game was put in there, in the first place, was to eliminate teams playing for the tie. In that sense, the three point game has failed. My system would not allow anyone to play for the tie at anytime.

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I don't see that stat as worrying at all. First of all, it's true that many of those points were collected in the first half of the season, while we were struggling, mainly because of the injuries and the lack of cohesion between the coach, the newcomers and those who were back from last season. No excuse there, just a perfectly reasonable explanation IMO.

And I agree 100% that far from worrying the numbers tell a lot about the resilience of the players. They will enter the playoff with confidence in their ability to win, even in tight situations. We just need Cam and Bergeron in the line-up to complete a solid roster. I don't say that we will win the Cup, just that when healthy we have all it takes to contend and, who knows?, be among the biggest surprises of the year.

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OT wins were only 2 points at the Olympics. Which is the correct way to award the points. Hockey's focus should reward 5 on 5 play since it's the majority of the game anyways. Plus, it makes every game worth the same amount of points.

Agreed! I'd like to see

Regulation win: 3 points

OT/SO Win: 2 points

OT/So loss: 1 point

Regulation loss: 0 points

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Agreed! I'd like to see

Regulation win: 3 points

OT/SO Win: 2 points

OT/So loss: 1 point

Regulation loss: 0 points

I would like that too but I fear 3 pts for a reg time win may cause one day a team to finish with like 200 pts at end season. I would not like to see that eventuality come to reality. I think that if a team looses in SO then that should be tabed as 'special' loss but no pts awarded. 2 for the win only. at end season loses in SO would count the same way as now, but no pts awarded.

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I would like that too but I fear 3 pts for a reg time win may cause one day a team to finish with like 200 pts at end season. I would not like to see that eventuality come to reality. I think that if a team looses in SO then that should be tabed as 'special' loss but no pts awarded. 2 for the win only. at end season loses in SO would count the same way as now, but no pts awarded.

Why not go to baseball/basketball style? W-L, count standings by games behind. First tiebreaker is regulation wins. I guess that's kind of what you're saying, I think.

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I would like that too but I fear 3 pts for a reg time win may cause one day a team to finish with like 200 pts at end season. I would not like to see that eventuality come to reality. I think that if a team looses in SO then that should be tabed as 'special' loss but no pts awarded. 2 for the win only. at end season loses in SO would count the same way as now, but no pts awarded.

200... and what?

it doesn't mean other teams cannot finish 190 or 180 behind... and in these cases 3 points means your only 3 games behind that 200 point team....3 points means a team trying to make the playoff, will risk pulling a goaltender out even when its tied. 3 points means less boring cross division or conference games, 3 points means no more soft play for the overtime point. 3 points means getting your money's worth!!!

Edited by CoRvInA
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WOW!!! :lol:

I didn't fantom for a sec that I would get this kind of passion from my post. Thanks all :clap:

Now why I would not want 3 pts games are a little wierd to some I see but I like the 2 pts system in place. I just think that forcing a win on a team and awarding 1 pt to the loosing one for this is (pardon the expression and I mean no disrspect with it) ######ed. If the SO winninng goal can not count towards the player stat then the win shouldn't either IMO. I think if a team knows that should they loose all pnts in play for any given game then we as fans of a team, the game will get our money's worth. That said awarding the 1 pt for an OT loss I have no probs with... Go figure!!! :lol::rolleyes:

I guess you can say I am like an reformed old timmer :lol:

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