Anti-Maple Leafs Thread

[DON]

Should be another good year to be a Leaf-hater, they should suck once again. Just how bad will they be is only question?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Should be another good year to be a Leaf-hater, they should suck once again. Just how bad will they be is only question?

Leafs will have a high powered offence and an easily exposable defence, followed by two strong goalies who can win games the team doesn't deserve.

In that situation, they are highly volatile. Reimer is capable of 15-20 wins. Bernier is capable of 20-30 wins. If both goalies play great in front of a terrible defensive game, they could easily win 40 and make the post-season.

The problem with that is that the Leafs need to replace the contributions of Mason Raymond, Dave Bolland, Nik Kulemin and Carl Gunnarson (and Paul Ranger with his more goals than Dave Clarkson) with Mike Santorelli, Danny Winnik, Petri Kontiola, David Booth and Stephane Robidas. And maybe get more healthy games out of Tyler Bozak. And maybe get more scoring from Clarkson. I don't see any of their forwards replacing Raymond's numbers, but maybe 80 games from Bozak helps. Or Kadri getting better.

For me, the Leafs have done very little to prove they will be better than Montreal, Boston or Tampa. I don't think either of those three are budging from Top 3 in the Atlantic. That leaves Toronto chasing a wildcard spot against Detroit, as well as what will be absolute bloodbath in the Metropolitan division. That division is seven capable teams (Pittsburgh, Philly, Columbus, NY, NJ, Washington, Brooklyn) fighting for playoff spots and will likely be a win or two separated, even with Carolina to pick on. Toronto needs to be better than whoever isn't Top 3 in the Metro.

I don't see it.

[DON]

I think they are tanking, on purpose or not is only question.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I think they are tanking, on purpose or not is only question.

Toronto doesn't know what it means to tank. Their last 10 years of performances? All with teams management believed were playoff teams.

2006: Missed playoffs, drafted 13th overall (Top 5: Johnson, Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel)

2007: Missed playoffs, supposed to draft 13th overall (Top 5: Kane, JVR, Turris, Hickey, Alzner)

2008: Missed playoffs drafted Luke Schenn 5th Overall (Top 5: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogo, Pietrangelo, Schenn)

2009: Missed playoffs, drafted Nazem Kadri 7th Overall (Top 5: Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, E. Kane, Schenn)

2010: Missed playoffs, supposed to draft 2nd Overall (Top 5: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niederreiter)

2011: Missed playoffs, supposed to draft 9th Overall (Top 5: Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome)

2012: Missed playoffs, drafted 5th Overall (Top 5: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, Reinhart, Rielly)

Think about that. Seven years of missing the playoffs and all they have to show for it is trading the 2010 and 2011 picks for 2006th 5th overall pick Kessel, trading their 2008 pick for 2007 2nd overall pick JVR, Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly. Had the Leafs intentionally tanked and never traded their first round picks after the lockout, they could have had a John Tavares or a Steven Stamkos. Instead they continue to believe they are a contender for the playoffs and constantly miss the mark, 2013 being the first time since 2004 they got lucky and made it.

Toronto would be the most powerful team in the East right now if they had proper management. Even today they are delusional.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Great analysis, Machine! It's almost as though there is a huge cloud of delusion that envelops the entire city of TO, as well as the organization itself, year after year when it comes to the Leafs. The track record of failure is simply not normal. The key problem there, I suspect, is a divided ownership (such problems stat at the top), and perhaps a media that is insufficiently critical and independent, and therefore ends up spreading the fog rather than dissipating it.

I think they'll be a bubble team again, being "volatile" as you say. They seem to be putting a lot of weight on Robidas to stabilize their blueline. If this were five years ago, that'd be a great idea. They do have a couple of good young players in the system, too, in Reilly and Nylander, as well as one of the league's most exciting and explosive wingers in Kessel. In short, I don't see them as bottom-feeders per se; they ain't Buffalo/Calgary...but like I always say, if the Leafs never make the playoffs again, that'd really be fine by me

[DON]

Haha! Love the jersey tossed on the ice!

They will be battling Sabres/Carolina/Flames for lottery pick.

(gotta cheer Cap blanking Bruins also, what a great evening of hockey)

[BlueKross]

I watched the Leafs/Rangers last night. I noticed a lot of pond shinny through the course of the game. i sure hope the game isn't heading in that direction.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Turns out the sweater toss? It was a Habs fan.

That just increases the humour for me.

[PMAC]

MoLG, I find it hard to be-leaf that a Habs fan was responsible...I mean, what self-respecting Habs fan would even touch such a thing-- even to throw it away?

[JMMR]

MoLG, I find it hard to be-leaf that a Habs fan was responsible...I mean, what self-respecting Habs fan would even touch such a thing-- even to throw it away?

I own 2 Leafs jerseys.

1 Wendel Clark autographed.

The second I kid you not I found on the street about 10 years ago, it was in awful condition. I use it to clean my tires.

[DON]

Go Pens Go, bury them!!

[habs rule]

I own 2 Leafs jerseys.

1 Wendel Clark autographed.

The second I kid you not I found on the street about 10 years ago, it was in awful condition. I use it to clean my tires.

I guess you get pass for using the sweater for tire cleaning, but I don't know about that Wendel one. You may face disciplinary action from the Habs hate the forking leafs committee.

[Colin]

I have now convinced my 7-year-old that any combination of the words "Toronto" "Maple" and "Leaf" constitutes cursing. He looks horrifyingly guilty when he says it, though admittedly does it just to get a reaction. I'm prepared to ban that colour of blue in this house as well. We're currently discussing the burning of all Leaf hockey cards (and a few Bruins as well), though he likes to play with them "as the losing team, daddy!" My nephew has a Maple Leaf tuque which he's not allowed to bring in the house. When he comes over, it must remain on the front step.

[DON]

Go Kopitar Go! Hat trick vs those dirty Leafs would look nice.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Leafs on a roll, partially due to an easy schedule, but they are making the most out of it.

Of course, Toronto is defined by one good half, one bad half. They haven't had their bad half yet.

[Guest Stogey24]

Leafs on a roll, partially due to an easy schedule, but they are making the most out of it.

Of course, Toronto is defined by one good half, one bad half. They haven't had their bad half yet.

They've played the most home games in the league.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

I went to the Leafs-Panthers game today at the BB and T. With all the Leafs jerseys (10 to 1 easy) you could have sworn the game was at the ACC.

What a bunch of frigging losers. The team, not the fans. The fans were very nice people. Toronto is down 2-1, score three quick ones, then Reimer lets up three goals in the third period to lose the game.

Nothing about the Maple Leafs suggest that they're hard to play against. Phaneuf, man, what a bum. He got an interference penalty in the first period immediately after he left the penalty box from his first minor penalty. That Reimer, I don't care if you want to argue that he's a scapegoat, he gagged up three goals on five shots and he's the biggest choke artist in the league this side of Tuukka Rask. Scottie Upshall steamrolled Richard Panik in a questionable hit and the clowns on the ice looked at each other and probably said "not iiiiiiiiittttttttt!"

They fire half their management staff and replace them with twenty year olds from the internet. I was happy their fans got a good game, but they almost didn't care, or at least were not suprised to see their team blow what should have been a safe lead in less than five shots.

They won't make the playoffs. Book it.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Toronto is benefiting from the Metro division being in shambles. It's not going to last. New York just won eight straight and Washington is turning it around. That's going to limit the wildcard. Florida is looking good and Boston should have some turn around in the second half. Toronto also has one of the most difficult second halfs of any team due to their abundance of road games. Only the Sabres and Blue Jackets have allowed more goals in the East. If anyone is gonna make the East tight for Toronto it's Columbus. They are turning it around.

Also, "They fire half their management staff and replace them with twenty year olds from the internet." is silly if a criticism. Kyle Dubas is a very smart guy. He's pretty deserving of where he is right now. He was a year or two away from having to work up through a lesser team in stature than Toronto. Guys like Dubas and Spott are guys I worry will turn around the Leafs.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Toronto is benefiting from the Metro division being in shambles. It's not going to last. New York just won eight straight and Washington is turning it around. That's going to limit the wildcard. Florida is looking good and Boston should have some turn around in the second half. Toronto also has one of the most difficult second halfs of any team due to their abundance of road games. Only the Sabres and Blue Jackets have allowed more goals in the East. If anyone is gonna make the East tight for Toronto it's Columbus. They are turning it around.

Also, "They fire half their management staff and replace them with twenty year olds from the internet." is silly if a criticism. Kyle Dubas is a very smart guy. He's pretty deserving of where he is right now. He was a year or two away from having to work up through a lesser team in stature than Toronto. Guys like Dubas and Spott are guys I worry will turn around the Leafs.

How so? He ran a junior hockey team with mixed results and was hired to generate positive PR. As for his impact, and the impact of all the fancy stats emphasis, they're just as bad in those metrics as last year.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had all those guys in a room together making paper airplanes.

[PMAC]

Hilarious rant by an upset ( are there any other kind?) TML fan

[Machine of Loving Grace]

How so? He ran a junior hockey team with mixed results and was hired to generate positive PR. As for his impact, and the impact of all the fancy stats emphasis, they're just as bad in those metrics as last year.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had all those guys in a room together making paper airplanes.

- youngest person ever certified by NHLPA as an agent

- hired not the best coach for PR but best coach for the job

- 109-76-7-12 in three seasons. Took over a terrible team so 5th in first season. Made the playoffs the next two years and won the West Division title in the third year. 74 goals against difference from year one and year three.

Just because you hire a bunch of stat guys, that doesn't mean that automatically your stats will be magically better. Especially since the team barely changed and the head coach is the same. The Leafs are probably not going to change their analytics for a few years. However they are already implementing ways to track their own stats to know which players to keep and which to drop. They are better prepared for the future than they were before with guys like Dubas.

I don't know why people assume hiring a fancy stat tracker means their fancy stats will immediately improve.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

- youngest person ever certified by NHLPA as an agent

- hired not the best coach for PR but best coach for the job

- 109-76-7-12 in three seasons. Took over a terrible team so 5th in first season. Made the playoffs the next two years and won the West Division title in the third year. 74 goals against difference from year one and year three.

Just because you hire a bunch of stat guys, that doesn't mean that automatically your stats will be magically better. Especially since the team barely changed and the head coach is the same. The Leafs are probably not going to change their analytics for a few years. However they are already implementing ways to track their own stats to know which players to keep and which to drop. They are better prepared for the future than they were before with guys like Dubas.

I don't know why people assume hiring a fancy stat tracker means their fancy stats will immediately improve.

Fair enough. But let's assume that management hires in general are supposed to improve teams. The "Summer of Fancy Stats" has some serious egg on it's face. The Laffs will crash, so we'll omit them, but how about New Jersey with the poker player and Edmonton Oilers with Dellow? What improvements have they made in teams that are dramatically worse?

Vic Ferrari himself said that a team based on fancy stats would fail, because the kids and their fancy stats would have no idea about the human aspect of teams.

Also, the term "fancy stats" is pretty rich, because this is high school math and graphing from bloggers looking for easy ways to update their sites. I mean, c'mon, Cam Charron works for the Maple Leafs? What a joke.

[dlbalr]

Fair enough. But let's assume that management hires in general are supposed to improve teams. The "Summer of Fancy Stats" has some serious egg on it's face. The Laffs will crash, so we'll omit them, but how about New Jersey with the poker player and Edmonton Oilers with Dellow? What improvements have they made in teams that are dramatically worse?

We all know Edmonton's issues stem from the owner's inability to realize that the current crew in place is incapable of building a winner. No amount of stat people or anti-stat people is going to change that. They also hired their guy mid-August when most of the offseason work was done. As for NJ, their GM is also past his prime.

Analytics hires aren't supposed to replace the current GM in place. They're just there to provide the GM with more tools to evaluate a player. It's still up to that GM though to make the final say. It makes it really hard to quantify their value as no one knows just how much or how little a general manager relies on the information that the 'numbers department' provides. And if you have a lousy GM, you're in trouble no matter what.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Predictive analytics are voodoo, and not just in hockey. Risk management, the law of large numbers, credit scores etc, sales forecasting. Nothing good comes from that crap.

[DON]

Unless you maybe are Warren Buffett and can read the tea-leaves well.