Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Predictive analytics are voodoo, and not just in hockey. Risk management, the law of large numbers, credit scores etc, sales forecasting. Nothing good comes from that crap. Except the Chicago Blackhawks have been using their own form of it for 10 years now. They just don't make them public or hire bloggers. I think the Habs have had their own internal numbers as well. Cunnyworth was a big stats/video guy. I doubt he was the only one. The stats give that extra information to let the Blackhawks know if they should take another chance on a Kris Versteeg or if they should trade Patrick Sharp just because his value is high compared to the impact it'd have on the team. The reason why advanced statistics have had such a bizarre relationship (compared to the NBA where they were almost immediately accepted and nobody really has a big issue with them) is that a lot of teams were doing it privately and the hockey bloggers thought private meant they didn't exist. The mainstream media guys weren't really following them so when the bloggers made them a hot topic, they reacted... poorly. Heck, I'll admit I reacted poorly to them because the guys I knew talking them up were Edmonton Oilers fans trying to argue the "un-seen" value of Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff. The media rejected them at first and it was a huge mistake in legitimizing themselves against the amateur bloggers. It also didn't help that hockey has a lot of Canadian rednecks that are really stupid people who just know how to play hockey. That led to these guys being bull headed and talking like they don't rely on statistics every damn day. Bullheaded rednecks also have a tendency to stick to what they've always done and refuse to adapt or evolve. The very best thing advanced statistics will lead to is the death of the plus/minus and goaltender wins, by far the most widely used and deceiving statistics in hockey. Eventually, NHL.com and other websites are just going to include advanced stats as an easy to click feature to see and once that happens, we'll just grow up with them the same way we grew up with save percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Carlyle fired. Spott and Horachek to take over coaching duties. Nonis and Shanahan made decision together. Said after that all Leaf players are potential trade targets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Carlyle fired. Spott and Horachek to take over coaching duties. Nonis and Shanahan made decision together. Said after that all Leaf players are potential trade targets. They should just make Peter Horachek head coach. He took over a team that was even worse last year and had favorable results. (WIth some help from a lame-duck schedule and Roberto Luongo. Randy Carlyle was a .530 coach. In my mind, he got some results out of them. The Maple Leafs have serious holes. They have no first line center, no number one defenseman and platoon goaltending. A team like that isn't a playoff team. If Mike Babcock gets hired, this will be an interesting case study for the "Fire Therrien" crowd. I don't think Bacock gets them further than eighth place with the team as it's constructed. As far as trade targets, who do they really have? Who's available? Trades are dead in the NHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Cunnyworth was a big stats/video guy. I doubt he was the only one. Kris Versteeg "un-seen" value of Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff. I was an econ major at the University of Vermont. I've studied Econometrics, stats, etc. Give me some better examples than Kris Versteeg, Randy Cunneyworth and Ales Hemsky (all disasters) or unsubstantiated rumors about the Kings and Blackhawks and I'll try to take this a little more seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I was an econ major at the University of Vermont. I've studied Econometrics, stats, etc. Give me some better examples than Kris Versteeg, Randy Cunneyworth and Ales Hemsky (all disasters) or unsubstantiated rumors about the Kings and Blackhawks and I'll try to take this a little more seriously. You were an econ major so I think you know how to use a Google search engine to do even rudimentary research. http://deadspin.com/the-blackhawks-use-advanced-analytics-shouldnt-your-te-1570839139 "Disaster" Kris Versteeg has 27 points in 34 games this season. Could have his best career numbers this year. Maybe the Blackhawks know what they are doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 They should just make Peter Horachek head coach. He took over a team that was even worse last year and had favorable results. (WIth some help from a lame-duck schedule and Roberto Luongo. Randy Carlyle was a .530 coach. In my mind, he got some results out of them. The Maple Leafs have serious holes. They have no first line center, no number one defenseman and platoon goaltending. A team like that isn't a playoff team. If Mike Babcock gets hired, this will be an interesting case study for the "Fire Therrien" crowd. I don't think Bacock gets them further than eighth place with the team as it's constructed. As far as trade targets, who do they really have? Who's available? Trades are dead in the NHL. I think Horachek will wind up with the interim tag in the near future. The co-coach plan is supposedly just for their next game while they make a decision on what route to go. I'm with you on the core of the team being an issue more than the coach (although they're not platooning goalies anymore, Bernier is the clear-cut #1 and deservedly so). I'm not at all surprised that they fired Carlyle as their road trip was ugly but the roster as it stands isn't supposed to be a contender. They're a middle of the pack calibre team that happens to be right in the middle of the pack. I may eventually wind up wrong on this but I don't get why Babcock would want to go to Toronto. If he's leaving a nice situation in Detroit, it seems to me that he'd be more interested in going to a team built to win, not one that has been spinning 18 wheels off a cliff for several years in a row. As for who's available that teams would, there would be a few options. If they fall out of the race, Franson would fetch a nice return as a rental d-man. Gardiner doesn't have the best of contracts but is he a player who will benefit from not having Carlyle around? If so, his value could stabilize quickly. Other expiring deals (Santorelli and Winnik in particular) would also fetch picks at the deadline. If Edmonton decides to try a new set of goalies, Reimer could be a reasonable option for them (or a couple of other teams). They're going to have a harder time shaking up the core but they do have a few trade chips to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 You were an econ major so I think you know how to use a Google search engine to do even rudimentary research. http://deadspin.com/the-blackhawks-use-advanced-analytics-shouldnt-your-te-1570839139 "Disaster" Kris Versteeg has 27 points in 34 games this season. Could have his best career numbers this year. Maybe the Blackhawks know what they are doing? We'll have to agree to disagree. I watched him for dozens of games in Sunrise, one hot month isn't going to change my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 So one game in to the 'Peter Horachek era' and we're already seeing big changes...the Leafs actually outshot an opponent. They didn't outscore them though, losing 6-2 to Washington. One step at a time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I like the 6-2 part, great to hear, too bad they showed a bit better d. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The biggest thing we have to fear is Mark Hunter. I have high respect for the Knights organization. Then again, fearing the Leafs is silly. The Leafs were dominant compared to the Habs when I was in high school and in the end it never mattered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The biggest thing we have to fear is Mark Hunter. I have high respect for the Knights organization. Then again, fearing the Leafs is silly. The Leafs were dominant compared to the Habs when I was in high school and in the end it never mattered. You were in HIgh school in the 40s? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 You were in HIgh school in the 40s? They twice went to the Eastern Conference finals in the early 2000s with a dominant goalie (Belfour) and dominant center (Sundin). Compared to the Habs who were flopping like a near dead fish until Theodore's oversized pads and god season happened? They were dominant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 They twice went to the Eastern Conference finals in the early 2000s with a dominant goalie (Belfour) and dominant center (Sundin). Compared to the Habs who were flopping like a near dead fish until Theodore's oversized pads and god season happened? They were dominant. haha back when I used to love the Leafs. I even had a t-shirt of Sundin. Twice in a row, they faced Ottawa in the first round and swept them. I laughed at my friend's face who was cheering for the Sens and Alfie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Poor Bobrovski, 4-1 Leafs in 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CBJ get one back 4-2 Leafs, would it ever be sweet to see a big comeback! (with few Habs games happening, gotta cheer for something other than Romo and da Boys whooping GB) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Aww...poor Phanuts almost to tears after another sweet shutout; sure wish had leaders like he and Kessel on my team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine of Loving Grace Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Aww...poor Phanuts almost to tears after another sweet shutout; sure wish had leaders like he and Kessel on my team. The rumour right now is the LA Kings might want Phaneuf and are dangling... Mike Richards to get him. That's an awful, awful trade for Toronto and an amazing trade for LA, even if Dion is an overrated and overpaid defenceman. Toss the Leafs a package including Richards and Matt Greene and it works on the cap. I hope it happens even if it'll help the Kings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 He would be great as a number two or three and he would enjoy living in Hollywood and being a fruitcake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 3-0 start of 2nd.. go powerhouse Carolina go...poor Bernier pulled! How sweet it is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 3-0 start of 2nd.. go powerhouse Carolina go...poor Bernier pulled! How sweet it is! What do they do now? Fire Horachek? This is the danger of firing a coach in the middle of a season, the bump isn't always there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I hope they make a run at playoffs and just come up short, but if simply tank that is fine by me also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PMAC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The rumour right now is the LA Kings might want Phaneuf and are dangling... Mike Richards to get him. That's an awful, awful trade for Toronto and an amazing trade for LA, even if Dion is an overrated and overpaid defenceman. Toss the Leafs a package including Richards and Matt Greene and it works on the cap. I hope it happens even if it'll help the Kings. That trade would be beyond awful for the Leafs...it would saddle them with another untradeable, fading, hugely over-paid, fourth-line anchor, ie., a Clarkson clone, for years. C'mon, Nonis, Make it so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PMAC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I hope they make a run at playoffs and just come up short, but if simply tank that is fine by me also. No way Don. We do not want them to tank...we want sustained mediocrity. Just short of the playoffs will do nicely, thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don't worry if tanked, they would pick in top 5 and either get a bust or trade him away for a washed up vet and he would do great for another franchise. They are just that dysfunctional a franchise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3-0 for Sens..this is getting to be a fun season to be a HabFan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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