Will it come down to Markov or Wisniewski?

[REV-G]

Some in the media have been speculating as to whether the Canadiens will resign Markov because of his two knee operations the last two seasons. After watching recently acquired James Wisniewski pile up the points I wonder if we will try to keep both, can we afford both, or if Wisniewski continues to score and play effectivly if we'll keep him and trade Markov at some point? It would be amazing, if Markov could stay healthy, to keep both. What an upgrade for us. What do you think?

[dlbalr]

Markov has a knee operation in hand on Wisniewski, who has had 3 already in his career. I think there's a scenario where both could be retained, but I don't see it playing out. If Wisniewski regresses back to more sustainable numbers the rest of the way, then perhaps.

[Habiman]

Wiz is playing well...would love to have them both in the fold next year, but I don't see that happening...first priority will be Markov and will depend on his health and his demands...Wiz is young, but been around the league already...see if he can handle Montreal when we make playoffs...

[hab29RETIRED]

I think the habs need to try HARD to retain both. Dropping Hammer and GIll and giving the kids a chance should make it doable. Then if they can find some sucker in need a veteran defensive help willing to take SPacek, that would be the ideal situation.

But as I've said before the contract that is going to handcuff us in having the rest of the lineup adequately filled is Gomez. They need to get creative with how to package him to fill the other holes that he is going to create from a cap perspective.

Having said that, they are only going to resign him, if he REALLY wants to stay in Montreal and is willing to sign a cap friendly deal. I certainly wouldn't want him if it was going to cost something in the $5M range.

Edited January 18, 2011 by hab29RETIRED

[JGC21]

Agreed. both Markov and Wisniewski can be retained. Hamrlik, Gill, and Picard are gone. That's $8,350,000 right there. How much will Markov command after playing limited games the past two seasons and after two major knee operations? Am I a fool for thinking he'll sign for the same money, but a shorter deal? Then, let's replace Hamrlik and Gill's contracts with Wisniewski and a re-signed Gorges. They could all fit.

Markov - $5.75M

Wisniewski - $4.25M

Gorges - $3.5M

Spacek - $3.8M

Subban - $875k

Weber - $875k

That's $19M tied up on defense. If Gill wants to return, then maybe offer him $1.5M. I think the key will be to get rid of Spacek this summer to allow wiggle room on defense. Easier said than done though.

[dlbalr]

Weber may come in a little cheaper next year than what you have (take less for a 1-way deal) and you still need a 7th D on the roster. Let's say the D in that scenario is $19.5 mil. Goalies, Price at $2.75M, backup (Ramo?) at $1M, an estimate there. Assuming the cap goes up to $62 M as suggested a while back, that leaves $38.75 mil for forwards. 26+ of that is wrapped up in 6 forwards already, leaving about 12 million max (after adding Laraque's buyout) for 7 remaining forwards, less than that when you factor in that they'll want a bit of a cushion as well. Not sure that's ideal or even workable. For both Wisniewski and Markov to sign, Markov needs to take a hit in salary and Wisniewski can't come in much higher than the $3.25M he gets now.

[patience is a virtue]

Weber may come in a little cheaper next year than what you have (take less for a 1-way deal) and you still need a 7th D on the roster. Let's say the D in that scenario is $19.5 mil. Goalies, Price at $2.75M, backup (Ramo?) at $1M, an estimate there. Assuming the cap goes up to $62 M as suggested a while back, that leaves $38.75 mil for forwards. 26+ of that is wrapped up in 6 forwards already, leaving about 12 million max (after adding Laraque's buyout) for 7 remaining forwards, less than that when you factor in that they'll want a bit of a cushion as well. Not sure that's ideal or even workable. For both Wisniewski and Markov to sign, Markov needs to take a hit in salary and Wisniewski can't come in much higher than the $3.25M he gets now.

How about this?

Dman ---- 2010-11 --- 2011-12

Markov --- 5,750,000 - 5.5M - 2 years

Ham ------ 5,500,000 - walks

Gill -------- 2,250,000 - 2M - 1 year

Wiz -------- 3,250,000 - 4M - 3 years

Gorges -- 1,100,000 - 2.75M - 5 years

Weber --- 875,000 --- 800,000 - 2 years (one way contract)

Picard --- 600,000 --- walks

Subban - 875,000 --- 875,000

Spacek - 3,83M ------ 3,833,333

Totals: $22,558,333 $19,758,333

That, as you said, leaves $12M to sign AK ($3.75M for 3), Poo ($3M for 3), Max Pac ($1.5M for 2), Darche ($0.55M for 1) and Pyatt ($0.55 for 1) and maybe Halpern and Desharnais, or their replacements with the rest...

[saskhab]

No way should we pay over $4m for a #4 d-man.

[dlbalr]

That, as you said, leaves $12M to sign AK ($3.75M for 3), Poo ($3M for 3), Max Pac ($1.5M for 2), Darche ($0.55M for 1) and Pyatt ($0.55 for 1) and maybe Halpern and Desharnais, or their replacements with the rest...

Nice effort with the number crunching, always nice to see people give it a go. I disagree with giving Pouliot $3 mil a year, but that's just me. The other issue I have locking in multi-year with the 3 forwards you have is that Subban is going to be needing a notable raise after 11-12. Yes, Spacek's deal is off the books then, but if Subban continues to ascend as many hope he will, it'll be hard to get him and Spacek's replacement locked up around $4.6 million (Subban and Spacek's salaries roughly combined). That's why I think they'll go 1 year on many of the forwards you noted, as they often do and keep the carryover into 11-12 as low as possible.

Defensively, 5.5 for Markov on a 2 year deal is a risk as any multi-year deal would be given his recent health concerns but that's one I'd probably take all things considered. Gorges at 2.75, I'd take that, but I think that may be a bit low. I wonder if Gill may be let go, especially if they do try and keep Wisniewski. They can take a bit of what they would have paid him to help cover the extensions, and use the rest on another depth guy. I groan as I type this (since after so many years, I'm tired of pondering it), but a certain Russian prospect is in the news again as his KHL deal is up after this season.

Oh, and welcome to the board.

[saskhab]

Heh, if Emelin did come he'd probably slide in the bottom pairing with hopes he'd replace Spacek when his deal came up. I think he'd only be on a one year rookie deal.

[dlbalr]

Heh, if Emelin did come he'd probably slide in the bottom pairing with hopes he'd replace Spacek when his deal came up. I think he'd only be on a one year rookie deal.

He'd have to be on a 1 year ELC. That means bonuses too though with no bonus cushion for next season.

[JGC21]

How about this?

That, as you said, leaves $12M to sign AK ($3.75M for 3), Poo ($3M for 3), Max Pac ($1.5M for 2), Darche ($0.55M for 1) and Pyatt ($0.55 for 1) and maybe Halpern and Desharnais, or their replacements with the rest...

I'm pretty sure Darche and Halpern are gone next year. It will be interesting to see how White and Engvist play since I could see the bottom six looking a whole lot different next season.

[hab29RETIRED]

He'd have to be on a 1 year ELC. That means bonuses too though with no bonus cushion for next season.

I really hope he Emelin finally comes over, I just hope that if he does come over, after making us wait so long, he won't be a flop. We could sure use a solid physical presance on the back end that can actually skate.

[Chris]

It's do able to get both those guys signed.

Wis is the perfect age to sign someone for 4-5 years, around 20 mill.

if Markov is resigned they need heavy insentives. I disgree with a few posters on here, Markov won't get that kind of contract unless he earns all his incentives.

You don't resign Gill, Hamrlik which is around 7 mill right there.

Weber or Gorges can be used in a trade if needed.

Wis Markov

blank Subban

Spacek Weber / Gorges.

You will need to find a partner for Subban.

They also desperatley need a top 6 guy.

I don't think Ak46 will be back.

[saskhab]

Hamrlik has been Martin's rock. If he can be re-signed, he should be.

[Wamsley01]

Hamrlik has been Martin's rock. If he can be re-signed, he should be.

I agree. I wouldn't cut him loose so quickly. He has to know he will never see $5M per again at 36 years old.

So the question becomes how much of a discount will he take. I know fans like to scapegoat the closest guy to the puck

when it ends up inside the net on the replay, so the blame moves from Price, to whatever D is standing over top of Price pulling

the puck out, followed by whatever forward is skating by that defenseman, but you don't gut the defense that is leading the league

in PK and has the team 4th in team defense.

What Markov and Hamrlik get are going to determine who is lost or retained.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I agree. I wouldn't cut him loose so quickly. He has to know he will never see $5M per again at 36 years old.

So the question becomes how much of a discount will he take. I know fans like to scapegoat the closest guy to the puck

when it ends up inside the net on the replay, so the blame moves from Price, to whatever D is standing over top of Price pulling

the puck out, followed by whatever forward is skating by that defenseman, but you don't gut the defense that is leading the league

in PK and has the team 4th in team defense.

What Markov and Hamrlik get are going to determine who is lost or retained.

I agree, I don't quite grasp the idea that Hamrlik is so easily disposable, when clearly he will take a pay cut on the next deal no matter where he signs. Why, then, assume that the Habs will cheerfully cut him loose? I think people lump Spacek and Hammer together as overpaid old geezers and therefore guys we don't need. Both are, in fact, valuable ingredients, but Hammer in particular still brings a strong all-around game that we would be foolish to just chuck out the window.

Hell, I'd re-sign Gill as well, assuming he could take a bit of a cut.

Having said that, Chris's analysis was predicated on freeing up $7 mil by NOT re-signing those guys and channeling a good chunk of that change toward a higher-end UFA defenceman. IF there is indeed a near-elite UFA option then that would at least be worth considering. You trade some depth (Hammer + Gill) for, hopefully, a talent upgrade. That's a high-risk option, though, when you factor in that this D had, all told, delivered the goods and that there's no guarantee of said UFA signing with us.

[Wamsley01]

I agree, I don't quite grasp the idea that Hamrlik is so easily disposable, when clearly he will take a pay cut on the next deal no matter where he signs. Why, then, assume that the Habs will cheerfully cut him loose? I think people lump Spacek and Hammer together as overpaid old geezers and therefore guys we don't need. Both are, in fact, valuable ingredients, but Hammer in particular still brings a strong all-around game that we would be foolish to just chuck out the window.

Hell, I'd re-sign Gill as well, assuming he could take a bit of a cut.

Having said that, Chris's analysis was predicated on freeing up $7 mil by NOT re-signing those guys and channeling a good chunk of that change toward a higher-end UFA defenceman. IF there is indeed a near-elite UFA option then that would at least be worth considering. You trade some depth (Hammer + Gill) for, hopefully, a talent upgrade. That's a high-risk option, though, when you factor in that this D had, all told, delivered the goods and that there's no guarantee of said UFA signing with us.

Have you seen the list of 2011 UFA defensemen?

http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2010/06/01/2011-unrestricted-nhl-free-agents/#Defense

Lidstrom is going nowhere. So that leaves you with Bieksa, Kaberle, Phillips and Salo.

Kaberle is redundant if you re-sign Markov. The only two who would interest me in any way are Bieksa and Phillips.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Have you seen the list of 2011 UFA defensemen?

http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2010/06/01/2011-unrestricted-nhl-free-agents/#Defense

Lidstrom is going nowhere. So that leaves you with Bieksa, Kaberle, Phillips and Salo.

Kaberle is redundant if you re-sign Markov. The only two who would interest me in any way are Bieksa and Phillips.

Well, there you go. That's a dismal pool. Phillips sounds intriguing at first glace, but holy moly, he's 33 years old, and is -20 (!) with a grand total of 3 points on the season. I know that stats aren't everything, but you'd need a bloody solid scouting report to be assured that he represents a significant upgrade on Hamrlik.

Salo, what a joke that is; which leaves Bieksa and Kaberle. The Habs would be well-advised to pursue Kaberle IMHO and if we could be assured of signing him, he would represent a substantial upgrade. Trouble is, the bidding wars could bump his salary out of reach. This is even more true of Bieksa. Both will end up overpaid, but Bieksa is the more likely of the two to massively fail to live up to the big payday.

[saskhab]

Pitkanen and Brewer are pretty good as well, and Hejda plays a nice, clean game. But that's quite risky. We have Subban playing great 5 on 5 hockey on a cheap deal for one more year, and Weber is coming up to be on the PP.

That's why I don't view Wisniewski as a must sign... it'd be nice since he's a young guy, but our L-R split right now is pretty good moving forward without him. Gorges, Subban, Weber all on the right side, with Markov, Hamrlik, and Spacek on the left. Maybe bring Gill back, but there might not be room if we add Emelin or whatever. We definitely have to know more about Markov's knee.

[Wamsley01]

Well, there you go. That's a dismal pool. Phillips sounds intriguing at first glace, but holy moly, he's 33 years old, and is -20 (!) with a grand total of 3 points on the season. I know that stats aren't everything, but you'd need a bloody solid scouting report to be assured that he represents a significant upgrade on Hamrlik.

Salo, what a joke that is; which leaves Bieksa and Kaberle. The Habs would be well-advised to pursue Kaberle IMHO and if we could be assured of signing him, he would represent a substantial upgrade. Trouble is, the bidding wars could bump his salary out of reach. This is even more true of Bieksa. Both will end up overpaid, but Bieksa is the more likely of the two to massively fail to live up to the big payday.

Kaberle is soft, but makes a great first pass and is a strong PP QB. THey have PK, Markov (hopefully) and Spacek who can run a PP.

I would rather have Gill + Hamrlik then Kaberle.

[hab29RETIRED]

I really hope that the only Dman back next year are markov, Gorges, Subban and Wiz. I wouldn't mind if Hammer came back for something in the $1.5-2M range, but ONLY if they can unload Spacek. I definitely do NOT want both Spacek and Hammer back next year.

[JoeLassister]

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/sports/hockey/201102/07/01-4367923-hamrlik-accepterait-un-role-moindre-pour-finir-sa-carriere-a-montreal.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_canadien_427188_section_POS3

Hamrlik told La Presse that he would gladly accept a pay cut and a lesser important role and finish his carreer here. NICE !!!

[TurdBurglar]

I'm new here but from reading the thread and from my own thoughts on the situation I have this to add.

If the Canadiens decide to re-sign Markov, and I think they should, it need to be a short term "test" deal, like 1 - 2 years at less than he's making now. My gut feeling is it should be 1yr @ 5m or 2yrs @ 4.5 or less. We all know what he's capable of, but after 2 years of injury plagued seasons we've spent more time without him than with him. Also we can't afford more money being tied up in another player that is not playing (Gomez, he's on the ice, but is essentially wasted money).

That being said now we have to look at the other defensemen Montreal will have.

Gorges, Subban, and Spacek will be returning next season. Throw Markov in that mix and you have your top 4 defensemen for next year, barring Gill resigning which for a cheap price they could potentially do it and his size is something Montreal needs. Now, in my opinion Montreal's Defense potentially looks like this;

Markov / Gorges

Subban / Gill (Let's face it, their playing great together this year and Gill's influence on Subban is well worth the extra year of pay)

Spacek / ???

I honestly believe if Montreal resigns Gill and pairs him with Subban again next year, it will go a long way in preparing Subban for a great career. Gorges can also benefit from a solid defensive defenseman as well, as he showed in last year's playoffs. The question now is is it worth resigning Hamrlik or Wisniewski? Upwards of 3m a season for a 3rd pair defenseman? I'm loving Wisniewski's play with Montreal this season, I just don't see it fitting in cap-wise, and if this was a situation where one of them has to be signed, I would pick Wisniewski. Younger and adds more presence on the blue line. Montreal would have a devastating back-end on the power play (Markov / Wisniewski and Spacek / Subban, 4 potential bombs from the point), but desperately needs to address it's size issue up front. Honestly I think if Montreal retains Markov, Wisniewski and Hamrlik are gone, and Weber or Picard will be the 6th defenseman. AK47 will also be gone, hopefully being replaced with a winger with size or center if they can manage to trade Gomez away (crossing fingers even though it will never happen).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

A lot of people seem confident that Wiz is gone. It may indeed be that we can't afford him under the cap. However, the 'Wiz is gone' crowd overlooks the fact that we NEED Wiz and that our season could well have been a dire disaster without him. The ease with which people seem to be imagining Wiz's departure is eerily reminiscent of the carefree attitude we took to Streit. The fact is, we have been scrambling to fill the hole left by Streit ever since (first with Schneider, then with Bergeron, and now with Wiz). With Wiz, we have a heavy-duty, real-deal PP cannon and all-around good defenceman entering his prime. Just letting him walk strikes me as pretty ill-advised. And if we do have to let him walk because of weighty contracts to people like Spacek and Gomez, that is a frightening indictment of the Habs' cap management.

Edited April 1, 2011 by The Chicoutimi Cucumber