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Can Montreal Pass Boston for 3rd?


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Hello, I personally believe it is completely possible, but given Boston's somewhat easier schedule is it possible that we could see our habs in the top three seeds?

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Hello, I personally believe it is completely possible, but given Boston's somewhat easier schedule is it possible that we could see our habs in the top three seeds?

Of course it's possible. Montreal is pretty hot and Boston's pretty cold. But Boston is the better team (or at least, has the better roster) so I think Boston will find a way to hang on to 3rd.

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It's going to be a close race for 3rd place in the conference or 1st place in the division.

The way the season is scheduled Boston has a game in hand and plays the day after the Habs finish up their regular season in Toronto.

Is it possible the Canadiens will take 3rd? Absolutely.

Will they? Your guess is as good as mine.

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Looking at the numbers, it looks as if it'll take at least 100 points to win a division, getting 103 would give the Habs about a 50/50 chance of winning the Northeast. That requires 10 wins in 13 games. That may be asking a little too much, particularly given a somewhat challenging schedule in the next couple of weeks (the Habs have the toughest one of the 2-7 teams in the East this week). If Boston goes .500 down the stretch, they'd be at 99 points. That's about the only way I can see the Habs catching them and they would have to win the last head-to-head for sure. It's only a 2 point gap, but it seems so far away at times.

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Of course it's possible. Montreal is pretty hot and Boston's pretty cold. But Boston is the better team (or at least, has the better roster) so I think Boston will find a way to hang on to 3rd.

I disagree completely with that second statement. I don't see any massive difference between our teams... they do have Chara, which is a huge advantage, but our team has excellent depth and proven results. Our puck possession at even strength is near the top of the league, right up there with Detroit, and we boast great special teams. In tie games, we control the play more often than not.

We've had a key player underperform in his offensive stats this year in Gomez in such a way that can only be explained by bad luck, and he's starting to produce now. We've had a lot of injuries but our system has proven incredibly resiliant.

We're as good as any team in the Eastern Conference. It's about time we started believing that fact. Our biggest issue is our inability to draw penalties to allow a great powerplay the chance to pad our leads a bit more. When penalties get called less in general in the playoffs, I think this disadvantage will even out for us, but I could be wrong.

In spite of all that has happened, we have rookies producing and veterans leading. We have strong goaltending and excellent team defense. We have all the elements of a winning team, and the results to back it up.

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As far as taking third, it might be difficult at this point of course. We probably have to win that last head to head game for sure. But we're in a pretty good position to leapfrog into at least the 4th seed by my estimation and grab home ice in round one. It used to be that 1st in the Northeast was looking like it'd be worse than 2nd place in either the Southeast or Atlantic, now it's neck and neck. And Pittsburgh and Tampa are faltering.

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I disagree completely with that second statement. I don't see any massive difference between our teams... they do have Chara, which is a huge advantage, but our team has excellent depth and proven results. Our puck possession at even strength is near the top of the league, right up there with Detroit, and we boast great special teams. In tie games, we control the play more often than not.

We've had a key player underperform in his offensive stats this year in Gomez in such a way that can only be explained by bad luck, and he's starting to produce now. We've had a lot of injuries but our system has proven incredibly resiliant.

We're as good as any team in the Eastern Conference. It's about time we started believing that fact. Our biggest issue is our inability to draw penalties to allow a great powerplay the chance to pad our leads a bit more. When penalties get called less in general in the playoffs, I think this disadvantage will even out for us, but I could be wrong.

In spite of all that has happened, we have rookies producing and veterans leading. We have strong goaltending and excellent team defense. We have all the elements of a winning team, and the results to back it up.

I agree that Montreal is a top caliber team, especially if AK, Gomez and Eller keep it up. We have proven that Boston is not a problem only losing one game in regulation to them this year. I also think that Montreal will be fired up to beat them in that game and pass them in the standings as some kinda revenge thing for Pac.

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You guys and your numbers and logic!

I had these same type of discussions with Leaf fans in regards to the Leafs. It's only 4 points! Well 4 point at this point in the season is 15% of the available points left.

It is why sportsclubstats.com is so valuable. The Habs might be only 2 points back but the Bruins game in hand is large when assessing the probability of the Habs passing them.

Could the Habs pass them? Sure, is it likely? Not as much.

When you are a bask in the glow of a team that won 7 of 9, the idea of closing out 10-3 or 9-4 seems reasonable. Although this fanbase would have called the probability of finishing 17-5 insane after a 2-5-2 stretch in February. This task will ebb and flow emotionally based on the next game even though the task will remain exactly the same.

If you legitimately believe the Habs can finish out the season playing .700 hockey, then you believe they can because that is likely what it will take when you look at the Bruins schedule and the history of what it takes to win a division in the NHL.

Edited by Wamsley01
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The game remaining between the bruins and the habs I think will decide the division, I think they have a great chance of doing it, although the habs schedule is rough coming up.

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Habs are the proven better team, 4 games to 1 says it all, we can and may pass them but again, it will be close.

Can't wait to sweep them in the first round!

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Habs are the proven better team, 4 games to 1 says it all, we can and may pass them but again, it will be close.

Can't wait to sweep them in the first round!

Not sure their head to head matters considering that they only have 1 game left with the Bruins and we know it means nothing in the playoffs.

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The difference between Montreal catching Boston and Toronto catching 8th spot is that in the Habs' case, they only need to worry about themselves and Boston. Toronto's odds to make up 4 points are much smaller than ours because there are 3 or 4 other teams that are trying for the same.

For Montreal, say Boston plays .500 in their last 14 games, then Montreal needs only an extra win compared to them. If Boston get 18/28 points available, then it will be tough. But if Boston takes another week to get out of their funk, they could allow the Habs to sneak in. A game between the Habs and the Bruins has more of an impact on the division race between the two teams than Toronto winning head to head with one of the teams they are in a race against (such was the case vs Buffalo the other night).

The three factors that will determine the end result between Montreal and Boston are:

-Boston's game in hand. If they win it, it's really a 4 point gap. If they lose it, it's a big difference.

-The head to head game. Classic 4 pointer.

-The sort of match play between the teams with the remaining games. If the gap is two points, the Habs need +1 win on Boston to tie (possibly win, not sure of the SO win numbers) or +1.5 to win. If it's 4 points, Habs need +2 wins on Boston to tie, +2.5 to win. Doesn't matter if it's 5 wins or 11 wins in 13 games, as long as it's +1 or +2 over Boston.

Should be exciting.

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I should note that Boston currently has the tiebreaker (ROW) so to pass them, the Habs would have to beat them in points, a tie won't be enough despite the head-to-head record. If the Habs can gain a win on them (Boston loses a couple in OT/SO), then the head-to-head would come into play.

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Sportsclubstats.com currently gives Boston an 85% chance of winning the division, and Montreal the other 15%. (I imagine Buffalo still has a chance mathematically, but it's probably less than 0.1%, so they didn't include it)

Also, Boston has 38 wins and 1 shootout win, while Montreal also has 38 wins, but with 2 coming via shootout. This means if Montreal does catch Boston, it will likely have at least one more win to overcome that one shootout win, for the tiebreaker. So no advantage either way in that regard, unless Montreal loses a couple in OT or SO, or Boston wins another shootout or two.

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Taking 3rd place and winning the division would be great. Although, as dlbalr already said " that might be asking a little too much "

Can't really argue with the math but suffice to say it would be amazing if the Habs can pull it off.

Personally I'm not so concerned with MTL taking 3rd. 6th place is ok too if it means playing Boston in the first round.

There would be no better victory than destroying the Bruins Stanley Cup hopes in round 1.

I'd like Montreal to be the team that does it.

Of course so many factors are at play, it's hard to guess where MTL will be in the standings until a couple weeks from now.

Edited by BrenDittero
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The difference between Montreal catching Boston and Toronto catching 8th spot is that in the Habs' case, they only need to worry about themselves and Boston. Toronto's odds to make up 4 points are much smaller than ours because there are 3 or 4 other teams that are trying for the same.

For Montreal, say Boston plays .500 in their last 14 games, then Montreal needs only an extra win compared to them. If Boston get 18/28 points available, then it will be tough. But if Boston takes another week to get out of their funk, they could allow the Habs to sneak in. A game between the Habs and the Bruins has more of an impact on the division race between the two teams than Toronto winning head to head with one of the teams they are in a race against (such was the case vs Buffalo the other night).

The three factors that will determine the end result between Montreal and Boston are:

-Boston's game in hand. If they win it, it's really a 4 point gap. If they lose it, it's a big difference.

-The head to head game. Classic 4 pointer.

-The sort of match play between the teams with the remaining games. If the gap is two points, the Habs need +1 win on Boston to tie (possibly win, not sure of the SO win numbers) or +1.5 to win. If it's 4 points, Habs need +2 wins on Boston to tie, +2.5 to win. Doesn't matter if it's 5 wins or 11 wins in 13 games, as long as it's +1 or +2 over Boston.

Should be exciting.

It wasn't a straight comparison, it was used to illustrate that 2 points or 4 points look like nothing but when put in perspective with their previous 10 games, games in hand etc. that it is a more daunting task then the 2 points would represent.

Leaf fans continue to tell me it is only 4 points, but when you put it in context that they have played .700 hockey (11-4-5) and they would need to play .7-800 hockey to get to 90 points. A team that has played .480 hockey for 50 games needing to play .750 hockey for 30 games is just not realistic.

Same thing for habs fans. When they are struggling the sky is falling and the assumption of going 10-3 to finish the season is met with the cry of BS, but when you place them at 7-2 over the last 9 then 10-3 seems reasonable because memories are short. Even though a 10-3 finish would be a 17-5 finish to win the division.

If you look at it game to game, then the mind will convince you that anything is possible, but if you use the math like sportsclubstats.com it seems more unrealistic. Just like poker, if you bet with the odds they provided for the top 20 teams over the last 6 years their realistic scenario will out pay the longer shot hope driven scenario that we pray will happen 80% of the time.

I will watch and hope for the best, but not be disappointed if the logical numbers prove true. It has happened before, most notably in 1993 when the Habs went 7-11 down the stretch after going 41-23-6 and leading the NHL with 88 points through 67 games. The Bruins trailed by 9 points and went 15-2 to finish out the season and the Nords trailed by 5 points and went 10-7 down the stretch dumping the Habs to 3rd place in the Adams.

Unlikely things happen and hope always reigns, that is why they play the games on the ice.

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I disagree completely with that second statement. I don't see any massive difference between our teams... they do have Chara, which is a huge advantage, but our team has excellent depth and proven results. Our puck possession at even strength is near the top of the league, right up there with Detroit, and we boast great special teams. In tie games, we control the play more often than not.

We've had a key player underperform in his offensive stats this year in Gomez in such a way that can only be explained by bad luck, and he's starting to produce now. We've had a lot of injuries but our system has proven incredibly resiliant.

We're as good as any team in the Eastern Conference. It's about time we started believing that fact. Our biggest issue is our inability to draw penalties to allow a great powerplay the chance to pad our leads a bit more. When penalties get called less in general in the playoffs, I think this disadvantage will even out for us, but I could be wrong.

In spite of all that has happened, we have rookies producing and veterans leading. We have strong goaltending and excellent team defense. We have all the elements of a winning team, and the results to back it up.

With a healthy roster, Montreal has a contending team. With 4 useful d-men and a top six forward (and a grinder) injured, I don't think their depth matches that of the Bruins at any position.

If they go head to head in the playoffs, I'll like Montreal's odds, partly because they usually do well against Boston. But on paper, I've gotta give it to Boston. Their moves at the deadline make them deeper than us.

I agree that it feels like Montreal is on the verge of moving up a spot or two though.

When you say Montreal's as good as any team in the East, do you include Philly?

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With a healthy roster, Montreal has a contending team. With 4 useful d-men and a top six forward (and a grinder) injured, I don't think their depth matches that of the Bruins at any position.

If they go head to head in the playoffs, I'll like Montreal's odds, partly because they usually do well against Boston. But on paper, I've gotta give it to Boston. Their moves at the deadline make them deeper than us.

I agree that it feels like Montreal is on the verge of moving up a spot or two though.

When you say Montreal's as good as any team in the East, do you include Philly?

Philly hasnt exactly been playing like they have been hyped up to be in the last little while, 7-0 loss to rangers, and it is true that they have won the last to matches against us but we did shut them out 3-0.

I do not think that Montreal is as far behind Philly as people keep implying.

Now Pronger is out for 3-4 weeks with a broken hand.

Edited by bbp
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Philly hasnt exactly been playing like they have been hyped up to be in the last little while, 7-0 loss to rangers, and it is true that they have won the last to matches against us but we did shut them out 3-0.

I do not think that Montreal is as far behind Philly as people keep implying.

Now Pronger is out for 3-4 weeks with a broken hand.

It's more that Philly's style of play is so effective at shutting Montreal out. Last season, Montreal scarcely had a chance, they were outclassed. Habs don't do so well against teams that play the trap.

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It's more that Philly's style of play is so effective at shutting Montreal out. Last season, Montreal scarcely had a chance, they were outclassed. Habs don't do so well against teams that play the trap.

???????? Where do you dream that up from? We were 2-2 against them last year

They defeated a Montreal team that had given all it had in the first two rounds, that is all.

Philly and Boston are not teams we need to fear, we tend to be able to beat them both.

However is we have to face NYI or Edmonton I am shaking in my shoes.

You do all realize that if we hadn't dropped 6 points to those teams we would be in 1st and not having this discussion thread?

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???????? Where do you dream that up from? We were 2-2 against them last year

They defeated a Montreal team that had given all it had in the first two rounds, that is all.

Philly and Boston are not teams we need to fear, we tend to be able to beat them both.

However is we have to face NYI or Edmonton I am shaking in my shoes.

You do all realize that if we hadn't dropped 6 points to those teams we would be in 1st and not having this discussion thread?

The Flyers have beaten the Habs 9 out of the last 13 times they have played and have outscored them 40-25 over the last 2 seasons.

You are using confirmation bias to pull out things you want to be true to support your point. The Flyers "gave it their all" in the first two rounds as well and were a 7th seed coming back from 3-0 to knock off the Bruins. They should not be lumped in with the Bruins because the Canadiens DO NOT beat them that often.

As for being in 1st if they had beaten Edmonton and the Islanders, almost every team can make those type of arguments to better their record.

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I should note that Boston currently has the tiebreaker (ROW) so to pass them, the Habs would have to beat them in points, a tie won't be enough despite the head-to-head record. If the Habs can gain a win on them (Boston loses a couple in OT/SO), then the head-to-head would come into play.

The first tiebreaker is still total wins. The second tiebreaker is regulation plus overtime wins (no shootout wins). Just a clarification.

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When you say Montreal's as good as any team in the East, do you include Philly?

Yes. They may have our number, but I don't think they're above us, really. Besides, we might not have to play them.

Any of the top 6 can come out on top. Of course, so could 7 and 8, but the top 6 I think have virtually the same chance... the biggest disadvantage will be home ice and 3-6 playing a tougher first round opponent.

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The first tiebreaker is still total wins. The second tiebreaker is regulation plus overtime wins (no shootout wins). Just a clarification.

I don't interpret it that way. Here's the tiebreaker excerpt from NHL.com's standings page:

* - Division leaders are seeded 1, 2, and 3 in Conference standings. If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:

  • The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
  • The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout (NEW for 2010-11). This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
  • The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
  • The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

No mention of total wins, just ROW wins.

I found this from TSN which also at least implies there is no separate segregation of wins in terms of total vs ROW - http://www.tsn.ca/story/?id=333809

Also (since now you've got me scrambling in case I'm wrong :)), the wording of Bylaw 27.3 as referenced in the above link:

At the conclusion of the regular Schedule of Championship Games the standing of the teams in each Conference shall be determined in accordance with the following priorities in the order listed:

a) First place in each of the three divisions seeded 1, 2 and 3.

b) The higher number of points earned by the Club.

c) The greater number of games won by the Club (excluding games won in the Shootout).

d) The higher number of points earned in games against each other among two or more Clubs having equal standing under priorities (b) and ©.

e) The greater differential between goals scored for and against by clubs having equal standing under priority (d).

The underlined part is the change for this season. Division winners, then points, then ROW, not total wins which is to the Habs' benefit.

http://www.bizofhock...-news&Itemid=51

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