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Habs' Stat Projections


dlbalr

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As you may have noticed on the main site, we've started to look at scoring projections for the Habs as our website theme for August. Done so far are:

Mike Cammalleri

Tomas Plekanec

Andrei Kostitsyn

Brian Gionta

Erik Cole

Max Pacioretty

P.K. Subban

Scott Gomez

David Desharnais

Andrei Markov

Jaroslav Spacek

Lars Eller

Carey Price

Archive/Summary

What are your projections? Who do you want us to write about next?

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Looking forward to the whole series!

The players that interest me the most, because there is such a wide range of possibilities for their performance, are, DD, Patches, Eller and Weber (and Gomez). I assume at least one or two of them will have a breakout(/rebound) season. Patches seems the safest bet, but maybe DD actually is and we are all still too chicken to bet on the wee one?

I'll take the leap:

DD: 75GP, 18G, 27A, 45P

Edited by patience is a virtue
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Plek: 78

Cammy: 87

I'd love to hear peoples thoughts on Markov and Subban. Can Markov be as offensive as he once was, will Subban suffer 'the slump'.

Wow, career years from both of them. I can't see a scenario where any Hab surpasses the 1 PPG plateau this year to be honest.

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Wow, career years from both of them. I can't see a scenario where any Hab surpasses the 1 PPG plateau this year to be honest.

Yeap, I know I realize I look like a homer with these projections, but I see Cole really helping this line a lot. With a more offensive D-corps this season too it could lead to more pts, but then again, I am a armchair GM heh.

I'll take that bet dlbalr, name your stakes :)

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Yeap, I know I realize I look like a homer with these projections, but I see Cole really helping this line a lot. With a more offensive D-corps this season too it could lead to more pts, but then again, I am a armchair GM heh.

I'll take that bet dlbalr, name your stakes :)

I'm not much of betting guy...plus I'd be happy to be wrong here. :) I think Cole will help a bit, but not to the extent you've listed. Personally, I see Plekanec in the low-mid 70's points wise with everyone else falling behind.

As for the upcoming schedule, I'll have a Kostitsyn piece up sometime tonight. Mike Richard will be projecting Gionta's numbers on Friday, while Norm Szcyrek will cover the aforementioned Cole on Sunday.

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I hope not, cause it aint likely happening?

Plakanec and Gionta may get 60-70 and i would be very with that.

Pacioretty has only played a good 1/2 season, so i wouldnt say he is guaranteed to rack up a ton of points quite yet.

But overall, i do see the Habs at least being in middle of pack for scoring and expect much more balanced scoring throughout the lineup.

Kostitsyn will have his best year production wise and Cammalleri and Gomez cant do any worse can they?

Palushaj will have a good rookie year and get 30 or so games in as a call up.

quote name='bar' timestamp='1312412312' post='421322']

Thats fair enough Brian, do people speculate that the habs HAVE to have a player better than PPG to go far?

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But overall, i do see the Habs at least being in middle of pack for scoring and expect much more balanced scoring throughout the lineup.

Kostitsyn will have his best year production wise and Cammalleri and Gomez cant do any worse can they?

I agree that the Habs should have a more balanced attack but that, at least to me, means that there won't be a whole lot of gaudy offensive stats from anyone but rather more of the same of recent years. The difference is that this season, there should be a couple more players around the 35-45 point mark (Cole and if healthy, Markov) on top of the returning players.

I know we disagree on Kostitsyn, I have him taking a step back from last season's offensive numbers. Nothing major but with less ice time and a lot less PP time (I think he'll be fighting with Desharnais to be the 7th forward on the powerplay), I simply can't expect him to improve on last year's stats. His projection article is now on the site.

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I agree that the Habs should have a more balanced attack but that, at least to me, means that there won't be a whole lot of gaudy offensive stats from anyone but rather more of the same of recent years. The difference is that this season, there should be a couple more players around the 35-45 point mark (Cole and if healthy, Markov) on top of the returning players.

I know we disagree on Kostitsyn, I have him taking a step back from last season's offensive numbers. Nothing major but with less ice time and a lot less PP time (I think he'll be fighting with Desharnais to be the 7th forward on the powerplay), I simply can't expect him to improve on last year's stats. His projection article is now on the site.

While that may be true, I still expect there to be enough injuries that Kostitsyn will essentially be on the top 2 lines for most of the year anyways. Cole's lack of PP production in his career also makes me wonder whether he'll be a fixture on the PP or not.

I don't think we'll really see a slip in his production numbers.

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Who do you think will get 20 goals this year?

Gionta, Cammalleri, Plekanec should be locks for at least 20 and i feel Kostitsyn will get 20+ as well; but Pacioretty, Cole, Subban may end up just under 20 goals eh?

I agree that the Habs should have a more balanced attack but that, at least to me, means that there won't be a whole lot of gaudy offensive stats from anyone but rather more of the same of recent years. The difference is that this season, there should be a couple more players around the 35-45 point mark (Cole and if healthy, Markov) on top of the returning players.

I know we disagree on Kostitsyn, I have him taking a step back from last season's offensive numbers. Nothing major but with less ice time and a lot less PP time (I think he'll be fighting with Desharnais to be the 7th forward on the powerplay), I simply can't expect him to improve on last year's stats. His projection article is now on the site.

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Who do you think will get 20 goals this year?

Gionta, Cammalleri, Plekanec should be locks for at least 20 and i feel Kostitsyn will get 20+ as well; but Pacioretty, Cole, Subban may end up just under 20 goals eh?

I agree on the first 3 plus one of Cole/Pacioretty. That may not sound like a lot but the Habs have only had 4 20-goal scorers (players scoring 20 with the Habs) once in the last 4 years. Add that with a couple others falling just shy (Kostitsyn as I've projected plus the other of Pacioretty/Cole) and possibly Subban and it's shaping up to be a decent scoring by committee situation...especially if one of Desharnais/Eller takes a step forward in the goal department.

Also, Gionta's projections are now on the site: http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=2541

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4 20+ scorers sounds about right, when factor in an injury or 2, but i think Gionta, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn will all bag over 30, because with Markov back, addition of Cole, a more experianced/advanced Subban, Weber, Desharnais, Eller and Pacioretty the scoring opportunities for those 3 wingers at both even strength and on the PP should be there for them to really do well.

I really dont see a down year for Kostitsyn (even if playing slightly less ice time on 3rd line with Eller) and i am really looking forward to see if he and Pacioretty do push each other for top line shifts and PP time.

I agree on the first 3 plus one of Cole/Pacioretty. That may not sound like a lot but the Habs have only had 4 20-goal scorers (players scoring 20 with the Habs) once in the last 4 years. Add that with a couple others falling just shy (Kostitsyn as I've projected plus the other of Pacioretty/Cole) and possibly Subban and it's shaping up to be a decent scoring by committee situation...especially if one of Desharnais/Eller takes a step forward in the goal department.

Also, Gionta's projections are now on the site: http://www.habsworld...cle.php?id=2541

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It's all about health. Optimistically, one could assume that we have a more balanced offense than we have had in years. Having said that, the last time I was this excited was when Gainey signed Tanguay and Lang. Wow! We looked good before that season! It turned out to be a disaster, so off season speculation is fun, but if the wrong guy goes cold or health is a factor, it's big problems.

The common demoninator in the last two seasons has been Plek with two fantastic years, and spectacular goaltending for most of both season and the playofs, as well as a strict defensive system. The intangibles are the fun things to speculate. Pacioretty, Eller, DD, Subban... Health of Markov, Gorges and god forbid, Carey Price. If these players can contibute and not take a step back, I belive that injuries to the top 6 or depth players can easily be absorbed. A Price metdown, or a Subban backslide could cause enough turmoil to have a horrible season. The Subban sophmore slump could very well happen, but I am not counting on a Price meltdown.

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I have been following the potential production "schedules" on the main page and have yet to weigh in. I have been doing this sort of thing for years and am usually as far off as anyone else when the predictions are played out.The one thing that I am assured about is that injuries are reality, and affect adroitly the potential of the team. I think it more reasonable to predict who will step up if given the opportunity. As much as I hate how many small guys we got up front, I predict DD to have career year reminding everyone that he is probably starting as a 3/4th liner. I also predict that Wilsie will eventually show that he is much more than an AHLer.

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The plan is to have Gomez up on Thursday with Subban being next on Saturday. It's looking like I'll have to whip one up for tomorrow, any non-Gill preferences?

Patches?

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I have too say i really think MaxPac will be closer too 30 maybe even get there next season.

He said he is in better shape then he was last season and I believe he will be working even harder.

I'm going too go really high on my guess and call...

30-32-62 for him!

(im kinda just reallly hoping it happens :P)

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You might have noticed I also have him missing 16 games. I had him pegged for 27 if healthy, then re-calculated for the missed games projection.

I missed that indeed. Thanks!

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I haven't updated this in a while but we have been posting new profiles every couple of days. Tonight's is David Desharnais. We'll be taking a break on the Fantasy side until Saturday; we'll have a mailbag on Thursday instead. Andrei Markov will be the next profile posted.

I've also posted a one-stop archive page that summarizes all the projections. http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=2563

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