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Non-Rocket Habs Prospect tracker


Commandant
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https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/catching-the-torch/2022/3/12/22971710/catching-the-torch-canadiens-prospect-report-cards-jordan-harris-jayden-struble-luke-tuch

 

Norlinder 0pts

Kidney(2a) vs Trudeau(1a) (Simoneau out injured, likely why they lost), in 2-1 OT game.

 

Kidney tied for 8th in Q scoring 64pts  43gms.

 

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12 hours ago, GHT120 said:

Anybody know anything about "Mason Black"?  It is certainly a flattering projection for Joshua Roy ... will Roy REALLY be as good as Stamkos, Filip Forsberg or Sebastian Aho (similar Pts/Gm this NHL season to a 92 point season).

 

 

 

Its just math of NHLe... points in each league at each age are multipled by a factor for what they translate into in the NHL.

 

The metric isnt bad but there are some issues too.

 

Roy has had a fantastic season but im pumping the breaks hard on NHL superstar of that level.

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11 hours ago, Commandant said:

Roy has had a fantastic season but im pumping the breaks hard on NHL superstar of that level.

Trying not to get 'too' excited about possible steal in draft, but would be bit of good luck Habs could really use, to find a local impact player.:pray:

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13 hours ago, Commandant said:

Its just math of NHLe... points in each league at each age are multipled by a factor for what they translate into in the NHL.

 

The metric isnt bad but there are some issues too.

I think the guy did a masters' degree thesis on this, so there is some real stats work that went to it. But as with all models, there are more variables than can be managed by any realistic model, so there are always some issues.

 

It's also strictly an offensive stat, so less useful for D, especially for non-offense-oriented D. For example, Guhle is quite low on the PNHLe ratings.

 

As for Roy ... if the #150 pick turns into a top-six forward, almost like Gallagher, I would be super happy with the pick.

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On 3/12/2022 at 11:01 AM, GHT120 said:

Anybody know anything about "Mason Black"?  It is certainly a flattering projection for Joshua Roy ... will Roy REALLY be as good as Stamkos, Filip Forsberg or Sebastian Aho (similar Pts/Gm this NHL season to a 92 point season) ...

 

Thanks all for your feedback ... if the estimate is even close it will turn out to be a great selection.

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34 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I think the guy did a masters' degree thesis on this, so there is some real stats work that went to it. But as with all models, there are more variables than can be managed by any realistic model, so there are always some issues.

 

It's also strictly an offensive stat, so less useful for D, especially for non-offense-oriented D. For example, Guhle is quite low on the PNHLe ratings.

 

As for Roy ... if the #150 pick turns into a top-six forward, almost like Gallagher, I would be super happy with the pick.

 

I've seen studies on this, if you drafted solely on NHLe each year, taking first year draft eligibles (adjusting to add a percentage to each dman, cause you need dmen, and dmen always wiill be lower than forwards, i think 20% was the add on, but don't quote me)... you draft better than NHL teams have historically drafted. 

 

That said, you also have some massive misses in those drafts.

 

Overall its a good system for looking at prospects, but it certainly has flaws and blind spots.  Lets just hope Roy isn't one of those high producing juniors whose game won't translate at the next level. 

 

I like him, but not as a top 5 prospect in the world, heck he might not be a top 5 prospect in our system.  His skating  is a bit of a work in progress and will need to improve before he can do it at the AHL and NHL levels.  That said, people had the same complaints with late round pick Mark Stone, so it's possible to improve that one aspect. He seems to have everything else.  And his skating has improved since last year, its just gonna need more. 

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20 minutes ago, Commandant said:

That said, you also have some massive misses in those drafts.

Agreed. But then most teams do have massive misses in drafts from time to time. :)

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Agreed. But then most teams do have massive misses in drafts from time to time. :)

 

a somewhat related question, has anyone seen news of where Trevor Timmins may end up? I guess he will not be hired before the draft because of some clause, but he should be turning up somewhere.

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The hack Jack Todd wrote another piece calling for the Habs to let go of Mailloux for the sake of moral purity. At least the lingering negativity will probably mean that we'll have to take our time bringing him along and won't rush him.

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That pot has already been stirred so vigorously that we have broken more spoons than Caufield has broken sticks. Let's leave it alone.

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Xhekaj 4 shots so far, in 2nd period.

 

Farrell back this weekend; 2a in 3gms. Harvard win ECAC 1/4 final 2-1.

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4 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Yes, but zero PIM's. He seems to be regressing. 

He will come around, dont worry.:nuts:

I assume he is Laval bound this spring or fall, already being signed?

Harris-Norlinder, also will need spots, 3 left-d kids (not that the Barbarian is in same league as other two, but will be pro also).

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1 hour ago, DON said:

He will come around, dont worry.:nuts:

I assume he is Laval bound this spring or fall, already being signed?

Harris-Norlinder, also will need spots, 3 left-d kids (not that the Barbarian is in same league as other two, but will be pro also).

 

Yeah, Xhekaj is a safe bet to be in Laval next season.  If Hamilton goes out early in the playoffs, he and Mysak could jump to the Rocket to finish this year and both could probably crack their lineup in the postseason.

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8 hours ago, Dalhabs said:

This Xhekaj, is he a bit like Tie Domi?

Kidney 1g(22)1a, 1st star of game, 7 shots. Tied 5th in Q scoring.

 

 

Am thinking Xhekaj is like this knuckledragging meathead.

 

"Do you know who I am....I am MILAN LUCIC!"

 

Hope not, but we shall see how he does in Laval vs mostly non-smaller weaker high school kids.:spamafote:

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"I need to thank all my teammates. Without them, I wouldn't have made it this far."

 

 

 

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