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Are we seeing a trend or is this just a temporary problem?


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Further to this, we're still only 4 points out. Honestly, I think it would be helpful if, instead of focusing on wins and losses, people concentrated on how far back from 8th place we are. That's the measure that really counts. It's interesting how many posters and media commentators ignore the points-totals and frame the situation as even more dire than it already is. E.g., people treat OTL/SO as straight-up losses, ignoring that the team gets a point. But standings are what matter, and until we hit a point in the standings where making playoffs becomes borderline unrealistic, we should hold off on drastic moves, especially if the team is playing tolerably well (as saskhab demonstrates that it has, by and large).

I'm still not clear on what that threshold point is. Perhaps 6 points out, perhaps 8. If we go 0-3 over the next span, we will likely have fallen 6-8 points behind. Gauthier should certainly be pursuing a contingency plan for that moment. But as yet it may still be premature to put the plan into effect, given the standings.

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Further to this, we're still only 4 points out. Honestly, I think it would be helpful if, instead of focusing on wins and losses, people concentrated on how far back from 8th place we are. That's the measure that really counts. It's interesting how many posters and media commentators ignore the points-totals and frame the situation as even more dire than it already is. E.g., people treat OTL/SO as straight-up losses, ignoring that the team gets a point.

But until we hit a point where making playoffs becomes borderline unrealistic, we should hold off on drastic moves, especially if the team is playing tolerably well (as saskhab demonstrates that it has, by and large).

I'm still not clear on what that threshold point is. Perhaps 6 points out, perhaps 8. If we go 0-3 over the next span, we will likely have fallen 6-8 points behind. Gauthier should certainly be pursuing a contingency plan for that moment. But as yet it may still be premature to put the plan into effect, given the standings.

That is a very good point i think people are getting really caught up in the hype of us failing, I for one hadn't checked the standings so I wasn't aware we are only two games out of 8th.

I guess we can look at Columbus and go... shit... at least we won a game... :P

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Last night the Habs had 20 scoring chances, 13 at even strength. They gave up 12, 7 at even strength. So it was 13-7 at evens, 7-5 on special teams. And they lost 2-1.

Lots of reasons to be hopeful or negative, depending on which way you spin stats. I'm not going to comment on stats, because they're just numbers and can be as a result of poor play by the opposition. What matters to me is what they look like on the ice. Now, despite playing well enough in the first half of the game, how many can really agree that the second half of that game was acceptable? They barely generated anything and were, in fact, dismal from the red line to the opposition net, barely able to maintain any possession.

THAT is what worries me.

Injuries, sure, add up. But Pitt still manages despite missing the elite, and I think we can all agree that missing Gomez may actually be a blessing in disguise in some respects (hello Eller at #1 or 2). Markov missing is crucial, for certain, but the argument can be made that we managed last season without him for long stretches. Still, the guys we have *can* play.

So why don't they? Well, it's hard to develop chemistry with anyone when you don't see them more than a shift or two a game. It's hard to get a goal-scorer going when he's playing 10-15 minutes a game, virtually none on the PP, instead of 15-20 like others of his ilk (Cole). And it's really, really hard to win games when it looks like you don't give a crap and you lose 2/3rds of all battles on the boards... including when you outnumber the opposition.

I think Gauthier has a little more rope with which he can hang himself, but I have to believe that Martin is down to the frayed threads. I have to believe that because it's the hope to which I cling. He's a solid coach... whose time with this team should be at an end.

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Lots of reasons to be hopeful or negative, depending on which way you spin stats. I'm not going to comment on stats, because they're just numbers and can be as a result of poor play by the opposition. What matters to me is what they look like on the ice. Now, despite playing well enough in the first half of the game, how many can really agree that the second half of that game was acceptable? They barely generated anything and were, in fact, dismal from the red line to the opposition net, barely able to maintain any possession.

THAT is what worries me.

Injuries, sure, add up. But Pitt still manages despite missing the elite, and I think we can all agree that missing Gomez may actually be a blessing in disguise in some respects (hello Eller at #1 or 2). Markov missing is crucial, for certain, but the argument can be made that we managed last season without him for long stretches. Still, the guys we have *can* play.

So why don't they? Well, it's hard to develop chemistry with anyone when you don't see them more than a shift or two a game. It's hard to get a goal-scorer going when he's playing 10-15 minutes a game, virtually none on the PP, instead of 15-20 like others of his ilk (Cole). And it's really, really hard to win games when it looks like you don't give a crap and you lose 2/3rds of all battles on the boards... including when you outnumber the opposition.

I think Gauthier has a little more rope with which he can hang himself, but I have to believe that Martin is down to the frayed threads. I have to believe that because it's the hope to which I cling. He's a solid coach... whose time with this team should be at an end.

Yes yes and yes... Everything Colin said... Except I'm kind of hoping Gauthier doesn't have that much more rope either...

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Me too. I'm with Colin on this. It's about shelf life, which seems standard in modern pro sports. Yes, Lindy Ruff is an exception. I like what Michel Bergeron said, which I never do. He suggested that basically one home playoff gate would cover the expense of letting Martin go, give or take. If the Molsons believe a new coach could get them into the first round, by game two, they're in the " money" again.

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With Patches going down (I hope it;s not major!) it's getting to look pretty grim. Sources at HIO said that the team practiced with these lines this morning.

Kostitsyn-Eller-Darche

Plekanec-Gionta-Moen

DD-Cammalleri-Cole

Nokelainen-Blunden-EMELIN

Oh man, Emelin playing 4th line. If you thought having Moen as the leading goal scorer was bad... Listening to team990 last night, they said that the Habs are up to the cap pretty much, which doesn't leave much wiggle room for bringing in new contacts. Being in such a tight spot, it's make or break.

Sigh, I can't even think of any solutions, and the team still has an opportunity to win games and get out of this mess. Yet if the meltdown continues, it would be wise to do a rebuild and ship some of these UFA out like what was mentioned above,and try, TRY to get rid of Gomez (god that prolly won't happen) :(

Gomez, Gio and Cammy aren't playing the best so far. Cole just got here so it shouldn't fall solely on his shoulders. He has shown more drive that G, G and C over the course of this year so far.

Boston isn't playing that well, even with the rivalry, I'm not too worried about those games and how tough they'll be.

So yeah, after a few more weeks the picture will be a lot clearer, until then I don't think they're many solutions, the team is where they are right now, they've got to play and win. It's a huge test with all the injuries.

I've been reading some great posts here by the way. +1

Sigh... what will happen only time will tell.

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With Patches going down (I hope it;s not major!) it's getting to look pretty grim. Sources at HIO said that the team practiced with these lines this morning.

Kostitsyn-Eller-Darche

Plekanec-Gionta-Moen

DD-Cammalleri-Cole

Nokelainen-Blunden-EMELIN

Oh man, Emelin playing 4th line. If you thought having Moen as the leading goal scorer was bad... Listening to team990 last night, they said that the Habs are up to the cap pretty much, which doesn't leave much wiggle room for bringing in new contacts. Being in such a tight spot, it's make or break.

Sigh, I can't even think of any solutions, and the team still has an opportunity to win games and get out of this mess. Yet if the meltdown continues, it would be wise to do a rebuild and ship some of these UFA out like what was mentioned above,and try, TRY to get rid of Gomez (god that prolly won't happen) :(

Gomez, Gio and Cammy aren't playing the best so far. Cole just got here so it shouldn't fall solely on his shoulders. He has shown more drive that G, G and C over the course of this year so far.

Boston isn't playing that well, even with the rivalry, I'm not too worried about those games and how tough they'll be.

So yeah, after a few more weeks the picture will be a lot clearer, until then I don't think they're many solutions, the team is where they are right now, they've got to play and win. It's a huge test with all the injuries.

I've been reading some great posts here by the way. +1

Sigh... what will happen only time will tell.

Emelin is the last player I'd want on offense (except maybe Gill). I read on twitter that Emelin has NEVER played forward, not even as a kid. What better place to learn, than in the NHL? :wall:

I think I'd rather see Diaz up there.

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I don't get it..

its not like Jaques Martin can prevent all these injuries, I don't think he's 'lost the room'

We've lost a handful of games at the farthest point from the playoff race.. and people want blood already?

Change for change's sake is not always the best recipe.

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Palushaj was just called up.

Emelin was only at forward because we only had 11 FWDs before the callup.

For Cap reasons the Habs waited until after 5pm to callup Palushaj.

Emelin might have practiced at fwd, but he won't be playing there tomorrow night.

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I like what Michel Bergeron said, which I never do. He suggested that basically one home playoff gate would cover the expense of letting Martin go, give or take. If the Molsons believe a new coach could get them into the first round, by game two, they're in the " money" again.

You're better off sticking with tradition and thinking Bergeron's clueless as this assertion is when you think about it in more detail. First, his 'calculation' assumes that Martin's contract is up at the end of the year - it's not. Second, it doesn't take into consideration that most replacement coaches at this level also have the good fortune of actually getting paid so those have to be added too. That's not even considering expenses occurred at playoff time (which are greater than during the season).

Permit me to tear apart this argument, I'll keep the math limited as I know I tend to go off in my own little world with numbers from time to time. :) For simplicity purposes, let's assume Martin's annual salary (around $2 million) is roughly equal to 1 game worth of playoff revenue, as Bergeron asserts. Let's also assume that a replacement head coach will be a lesser known and agrees to coach for $1.5 mil per year. For the sake of finding a more accurate break-even point (to determine where actual revenues begin), we need to look at 2012-13 as well because Martin's still under contract.

Costs incurred by firing Martin:

~$3.75 million (remaining salary)

~$2.75 million (replacement coach, pro-rated 2011-12 salary)

Total: $6.5 million

So, for them to break even under Bergeron's claim, it's 3+ extra home playoff games over the next two seasons. When you consider there are expenses incurred with the revenues, it's really closer to 4.

Now, if you're like me and still think the Habs can at least get to the first round in this season and next with the current roster in a bottom-4 Eastern seed (meaning at max 3 home games in a series), that means that the new coach would have to bring the Habs through two extra rounds either this year or in 2012-13. When the likes of Michel Therrien are being bandied about as top-quality candidates, I'm not exactly convinced that's likely to happen. (If you think a new coach gets this team in this year where with Martin they wouldn't, then the numbers aren't quite so bad but still two rounds are needed to break even.)

Obviously, my little calculation is quite simplistic in nature as there are a lot of other things that need to be considered, but this is enough in my opinion to disprove Bergeron's claim. You can make a hockey-related case to make a coaching change, especially if the current trend continues. But make no mistake, it will not be a decision that is likely to make money for the Molsons.

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As for the cap, yeah we are right up against it now but thats because all our injured players + callups all count against the cap.

Once Patches, White and Gomez are healthy.... Palushaj and Blunden go to the minors. This would free up significant room.

Once Campoli and Markov are healthy... we may see Diaz in the minors.

There could be room to bring in about 3 million dollars worth of contracts (possibly more) once the minor leaguers return to the minors.

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To clarify. Jacques Martin makes 1.5 million per year. If he get's fired, it would take roughly, give or take, one playoff game to clear his salary from the books, maybe 2?? I'm not going to defend Mr. Bergeron. I believe his point was that it's not that far fetched, if the end is near. Obviously, another coach would have to be paid. That would be the point of firing him, to give the team a boost to make the playoffs.

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To clarify. Jacques Martin makes 1.5 million per year. If he get's fired, it would take roughly, give or take, one playoff game to clear his salary from the books, maybe 2?? I'm not going to defend Mr. Bergeron. I believe his point was that it's not that far fetched, if the end is near. Obviously, another coach would have to be paid. That would be the point of firing him, to give the team a boost to make the playoffs.

The notes I have are with Martin at $2 million when he signed - I'll see if I can find a link somewhere. Obviously the half mil per year would make a difference - it'd drop it to three games and one round in my scenario.

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That's his base salary, he get's $500,000 extra if he makes playoffs, which he obviously wouldn't get. A figure of 2 million profit per home game is what I generally see. But again, it was just a comment to illustrate the Molsons might contemplate it.

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That's his base salary, he get's $500,000 extra if he makes playoffs, which he obviously wouldn't get. A figure of 2 million profit per home game is what I generally see. But again, it was just a comment to illustrate the Molsons might contemplate it.

That's where the difference lies, thanks for the reminder. I'm sure a break-even discussion would be considered by Molson but I think the numbers aren't going to look too rosy, even with the 500k backed out per year.

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I admittedly have watched and followed just about zero hockey this season --- but the amount of panic on this board seems incredibly inflated. We're what, 8 games in and there's already talk of the season being over and of firing the coach?

Chill out. When team records don't match with statistics monitoring their actual play, we must assume that the numbers will eventually balance out. It isn't rational to predict that they will continue to lose 7 out of every 8 games if nothing changes. A hockey game is the simultaneous tossing of a million dice over and over for 60 minutes. A team as talented as this will not finish at the bottom of the league. They took a worse roster to 6th in the East last year.

Before the season starts, people says things like, "I hope they give X at least 20 games on the top line so that he can earn his spot there and have a chance to develop chemistry." Four losses into the season people are outraged when changes aren't made. You should all be glad Martin and Gauthier aren't so ruled by emotion and insecurity or the team would really be in trouble.

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The problem with Montreal is their system. Whether it's Martin's planning or the team's execution, their system is just now working on offense. I've watched nearly all of Montreal's games this year, some Edmonton games and some Ottawa games. The biggest difference between the 3 teams is the only one of the 3 that looks completely lost in the offensive zone is Montreal. It appears as if their playing a "wing it" offensive strategy. There is no consistency in what their doing in the offensive zone. They get outmanned on the boards on the powerplay, they seem to position themselves around the net according to the last good rebound chance not as a set position, they blindly throw the puck in front of the net and the person in front of the net is never looking at the passer, they try to beat player 1-on-1 way too often especially on the powerplay.

I believe they can make the playoffs, but someone needs to get a working system on offense going. If your trying to cycle, match the number of opposing player on the boards, don't let them outnumber you. If not, throw 2 guys in front of the net and make the defense and 3rd forward get the puck ON the net not passing it IN FRONT of the net. Sure their getting 40 shots on the net but really, 25+ of them shouldn't be taken in the first place and the goalies should be stopping easily. It's a classic debate of quantity over quality. I've been saying this about Montreal for years and I'll say it again, when on the powerplay outnumber the opponent on the boards, YOU have the extra man, don't let him stand around waiting for the puck for a great chance because 99% of the time the puck never gets to the open man. It's really pathetic when your being outnumbered on the boards when you have the extra guy.

Edited by Turd Burglar
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As for the cap, yeah we are right up against it now but thats because all our injured players + callups all count against the cap.

Once Patches, White and Gomez are healthy.... Palushaj and Blunden go to the minors. This would free up significant room.

Once Campoli and Markov are healthy... we may see Diaz in the minors.

There could be room to bring in about 3 million dollars worth of contracts (possibly more) once the minor leaguers return to the minors.

you know what else would clear up room? Sending Gomez to the minors!! (Not to beat a dead horse, but I really can't take it anymore)

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There is no need to put gomez in the minors today to make room to make a trade next month.

If you have a trade planned you can do the two moves within hours of each other and you can pick up 7 million in full season contracts, no matter when gomez is sent down.

I realize his number is irritating, but it doesn't do anything to preemptively demote him. So everyone who calls for it to be done today so we'll have space for a trade that is to come in the future is wasting their breath. It can be done virtually simultaneous to the trade itself.

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There is no need to put gomez in the minors today to make room to make a trade next month.

If you have a trade planned you can do the two moves within hours of each other and you can pick up 7 million in full season contracts, no matter when gomez is sent down.

I realize his number is irritating, but it doesn't do anything to preemptively demote him. So everyone who calls for it to be done today so we'll have space for a trade that is to come in the future is wasting their breath. It can be done virtually simultaneous to the trade itself.

Yeah unless we are trading our first round pick and some for an amazing center I do not think Gomez will be in the minors.

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