Permanent Trade Proposal Thread

[TurdBurglar]

49 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

When the leafs get bounced on Friday I wonder if they finally hit their core group of players? Let Marner walk and how about a bold trade idea:

 

Mathews to Vancouver for Pettersson and Hughes

 

Vancouver is going to lose Hughes at the end of his contract and Pettersson may be toast a la Gomez. They get a very skilled forward that can’t seem to contribute in the playoffs

 

Leafs get a two year opportunity to convince the best puck moving Dman in the league to sign with them. They take a gamble that Pettersson just needs a change of scenery. 
 

Risky but bold 

They are in a bad position.  Tavares and Marner could just walk.  I read awhile ago Marner is open to testing free agency.  As for Matthews, he has a full NMC.  I doubt he would willingly go to the sinking ship that is Vancouver.

 

Their core are either on full NMC, Rielly's gets downgraded to a 10 team after next season, or able to walk for free.  This is probably the best the Leafs will be for another decade or more.  This was probably their last real shot at a cup, barring the stars aligning.

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

I think with Marner and Tavares both free agents, the core 4 is going to be broken up. 

 

I'm not convinced that means trading Matthews.  I think the easier thing is just to spend money to replace one or both of Marner/Tavares and letting them walk.  Replace doesn't even necessarily have to be another forward, it might make sense to spend some of the money opening up on a star defender. 

 

I do think their lineup will change, I'm just not sure its a trade like the one suggested. 

 

If they go out this round I could see the Leafs being the team that throws too much money and term at Bennett and Marchand to change the character of their Top 6

[tomh009]

9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

If they go out this round I could see the Leafs being the team that throws too much money and term at Bennett and Marchand to change the character of their Top 6

That would indeed be a huge change from Tavares and Marner. Less scoring but more toughness.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

16 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

If they go out this round I could see the Leafs being the team that throws too much money and term at Bennett and Marchand to change the character of their Top 6

I don’t like this one bit

 

Re-sign marner for big money please

[DON]

Basu tosses out ; Pavel Zacha, Horvat, Dobson, Crosby as potential trade candidates.

 

And not get too stuck on good looking prospects vs adding actual NHLer, as most Mailloux, Beck, Kapanen's etc just dont make it.

 

Canadiens offseason primer: Trade candidates and free agents who fit Montreal’s rebuild - The Athletic

 

"But first, a bit of perspective.

In 2020, Wheeler wrote that the Canadiens had the second-best prospect pool in the NHL. He provided analysis on 15 prospects and another six whose seasons were cut short due to injury. Five years later, how many of those 21 players play for the Canadiens? Two: Caufield and Jayden Struble. Only four others – Jordan Harris, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Poehling and Noah Juulsen – were NHL players this season."

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

3 minutes ago, DON said:

Basu tosses out ; Pavel Zacha, Horvat, Dobson, Crosby as potential trade candidates.

 

And not get too stuck on good looking prospects vs adding actual NHLer, as most Mailloux, Beck, Kapanen's etc just dont make it.

 

Canadiens offseason primer: Trade candidates and free agents who fit Montreal’s rebuild - The Athletic

 

"But first, a bit of perspective.

In 2020, Wheeler wrote that the Canadiens had the second-best prospect pool in the NHL. He provided analysis on 15 prospects and another six whose seasons were cut short due to injury. Five years later, how many of those 21 players play for the Canadiens? Two: Caufield and Jayden Struble. Only four others – Jordan Harris, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Poehling and Noah Juulsen – were NHL players this season."

 

Individual prospects are generally over-hyped by fans and even media. The important thing is critical mass. You need to have sufficient numbers of promising prospects that 1-2 of them can get worked into your lineup, ideally on an annual basis. (That number is somewhat arbitrary; what you really need is to be able to reliably replace expensive veterans with cheaper youngsters).

 

Other than Reinbacher, I'm not sure any of our current prospects should be considered crown jewels. The crown jewels, Demidov and Hutson, are already on the team. 

[BCHabnut]

1 minute ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Individual prospects are generally over-hyped by fans and even media. The important thing is critical mass. You need to have sufficient numbers of promising prospects that 1-2 of them can get worked into your lineup, ideally on an annual basis. (That number is somewhat arbitrary; what you really need is to be able to reliably replace expensive veterans with cheaper youngsters).

 

Other than Reinbacher, I'm not sure any of our current prospects should be considered crown jewels. The crown jewels, Demidov and Hutson, are already on the team. 

Not crown jewels, but Fowler is looking very promising.  

[Commandant]

10 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Individual prospects are generally over-hyped by fans and even media. The important thing is critical mass. You need to have sufficient numbers of promising prospects that 1-2 of them can get worked into your lineup, ideally on an annual basis. (That number is somewhat arbitrary; what you really need is to be able to reliably replace expensive veterans with cheaper youngsters).

 

Other than Reinbacher, I'm not sure any of our current prospects should be considered crown jewels. The crown jewels, Demidov and Hutson, are already on the team. 

 

Demidov is 19 years old and played all of 7 games .... .he's still a prospect. 

 

He's eligible for the Calder Trophy next year, he has to be considered a prospect. 

[alfredoh2009]

28 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Individual prospects are generally over-hyped by fans and even media. The important thing is critical mass. You need to have sufficient numbers of promising prospects that 1-2 of them can get worked into your lineup, ideally on an annual basis. (That number is somewhat arbitrary; what you really need is to be able to reliably replace expensive veterans with cheaper youngsters).

 

Other than Reinbacher, I'm not sure any of our current prospects should be considered crown jewels. The crown jewels, Demidov and Hutson, are already on the team. 

breaks my heart to admit it, but I agree.

Even Kapanen, who’s development in EU I was hyped on, and heart ❤️ Beck ❤️ whom I’ve hyped on this forum … they become 3rd liners at best or trade chips 

 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, DON said:

"But first, a bit of perspective.

In 2020, Wheeler wrote that the Canadiens had the second-best prospect pool in the NHL. He provided analysis on 15 prospects and another six whose seasons were cut short due to injury. Five years later, how many of those 21 players play for the Canadiens? Two: Caufield and Jayden Struble. Only four others – Jordan Harris, Alexander Romanov, Ryan Poehling and Noah Juulsen – were NHL players this season."

Yes ... but Wheeler evaluates the entire pool. In any team's pool, the lower players have a low probability of becoming NHL regulars.

 

Of the eight players in the top tier of Wheeler's evaluation, three (Primeau also!) played for the Habs and three for other teams (because we traded them for other players). 75% is actually pretty good for top-tier (but not elite) prospects. (Of note, Wheeler estimated, five years ago, that Caufield had 40-goal upside, and it looks like he was pretty much spot-on with that.)

 

This year's equivalent pool?

• Demidov
• Fowler
• Reinbacher
• Hage
• Mailloux
• Roy
• Beck
• Dobes
• Kapanen
• Engstrom
• Mesar

I think roughly 75% of those will be NHL players, or eight of eleven. Maybe Roy, Engstrom and Mesar won't make it (or a different three). And of the eight that do, how many will be impact players? If it's three (Demidov, Fowler and Reinbacher) we're doing well.

[hab29RETIRED]

What would it cost to live up high enough to draft Desnoyers?  I’ve seen him as high as the top 6 and as low as 16.

[DON]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Yes ... but Wheeler evaluates the entire pool. In any team's pool, the lower players have a low probability of becoming NHL regulars.

 

Of the eight players in the top tier of Wheeler's evaluation, three (Primeau also!) played for the Habs and three for other teams (because we traded them for other players). 75% is actually pretty good for top-tier (but not elite) prospects. (Of note, Wheeler estimated, five years ago, that Caufield had 40-goal upside, and it looks like he was pretty much spot-on with that.)

 

This year's equivalent pool?

• Demidov
• Fowler
• Reinbacher
• Hage
• Mailloux
• Roy
• Beck
• Dobes
• Kapanen
• Engstrom
• Mesar

I think roughly 75% of those will be NHL players, or eight of eleven. Maybe Roy, Engstrom and Mesar won't make it (or a different three). And of the eight that do, how many will be impact players? If it's three (Demidov, Fowler and Reinbacher) we're doing well.

All bolded ones can be flops easy enough. 3/4 of them seems crazy high and unrealistic expectation.

[JoeLassister]

6 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

What would it cost to live up high enough to draft Desnoyers?  I’ve seen him as high as the top 6 and as low as 16.

I'd be VERY suprised he he's still there past 10th oa.  Even 8th oa.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

What would it cost to live up high enough to draft Desnoyers?  I’ve seen him as high as the top 6 and as low as 16.

 

Most recent mock drafts have him in the top 6, have seen him as high as 3, he has been a steady riser. Not sure how high you could get if you bundle 16 and 17 along with maybe a 2nd round pick. It's all about quality now not quantity. 

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

What would it cost to live up high enough to draft Desnoyers?  I’ve seen him as high as the top 6 and as low as 16.

 

 

Depends on how high they feel they need to go to make the pick ... 

1. New York Islanders - Fuhgeddaboudit
2. San Jose Sharks - Unlikley
3. Chicago Blackhawks - Unlikley
4. Utah Hockey Club - Finished 7 points out of the last wild card spot
   ................................ Might be open to a trade, but not likely for draft picks
5. Predators - Went big last offseason, signing Juuse Saros (8-yrs, $61.92M),
   .................... Steven Stamkos (4-yrs, $32M), Jonathan Marchessault (5-yrs, $27.5M)
   .................... and Brady Skjei (7-yrs, $49M) ... do they reverse course or double down

6. Philadelphia Flyers - depends on whether they decide to CHARGE or continue rebuild 
   .................................. is Tocchet a rebuild coach?

7. Boston Bruins - does a slip from .665 to .463 signal need management that they need to rebuild,
   ......................... re-tool or patch?
8. Seattle Kraken - a great second season (.610) slipped to .494 and now .463 ... what does Francis moving upstairs and Botterill taking over signal
9. Buffalo Sabres - WHO-T-F knows
10. Anaheim Ducks - gut tells me that they may be open to adding a veteran to the top 8F/4D

Utah seems like the most likely team to be open to a trade, but not likely for picks ... I doubt the Preds pass on a Top 5 pick ... if teams 6-10 make moves, my guess it won't be to flip picks ... so unless HuGo are willing to move top prospects for a pick it seems to me unlikely that the Habs can trade into the Top 10 ... and I think they want those resources to fill "now" holes.

[skifaster]

Carey Price's contract and a pile of this year's picks for Alex Wennberg?  San Jose is way below the cap minimum.  Wennburg is a left shot center on the last year of his contract with SJS.

 

I feel like Montreal is going to trade for another center rather than going the free agency route

[GHT120]

19 minutes ago, skifaster said:

Carey Price's contract and a pile of this year's picks for Alex Wennberg?  San Jose is way below the cap minimum.  Wennburg is a left shot center on the last year of his contract with SJS.

 

I feel like Montreal is going to trade for another center rather than going the free agency route

Not certain why ... or to fill what role ... last four seasons he has average 11 goals per 82 games, 46.5% on faceoffs ... with Price's contract carrying so much "free cap space" after July 1st I doubt it costs that much to move it.

[skifaster]

Gap filler if Dvorak leaves.  Nico Strum is another option but Florida doesn't need Price's contract

 

 

[GHT120]

2 minutes ago, skifaster said:

Gap filler if Dvorak leaves.  Nico Strum is another option but Florida doesn't need Price's contract

Price for Wennberg maybe ... think they can do better at 3C

[Commandant]

The replacement for Dvorak is the 2c. 

 

Reason being it pushes one of Dach/Newhook to wing and one to the third line. 

If Beck and Kapanen can't push Newhook to wing, then they aren't ready for NHL yet. But Newhook is perfectly fine as a 3C. 

 

So getting a 2C pushes the old 2C into that better fitting 3C role.

[skifaster]

Hopefully.  I was just thinking about opportunites to move Price's contract.

[skifaster]

I think the only 2 centers that are NHL ready on the current roster are Suzuki and Evans so Montreal needs to find 2 more centers in the off season (if Dvorak leaves).  Dach is coming off another injury and Beck/Kapanen will benefit from more AHL time.

[Commandant]

Newhook showed me hes an NHL centre.  Not a top 6 but an NHLer.

[DON]

30 minutes ago, skifaster said:

Hopefully.  I was just thinking about opportunites to move Price's contract.

Why is that important enough to cough up several picks?

[dlbalr]

16 hours ago, skifaster said:

Gap filler if Dvorak leaves.  Nico Strum is another option but Florida doesn't need Price's contract

 

Sturm's a free agent in six weeks so if Montreal wants him, they can sign him without needing to do anything with Price's contract.

 

I've seen some recent suggestions that the bonus payment for Price is September 1st this year, not July 1st.  If that's the case, that likely pushes any potential Price trade until closer to the start of training camp (though something can be agreed on in principle before then, of course).