Jump to content

Subban


C-Love
 Share

Recommended Posts

Take Edler as a reference. Back when he signed this contract, 3.25M$ corresponded to what % of the salary cap ?

I dunno, but Edler is a good comparable.

I suspect the debate in this thread mirrors, more or less, the discussions between PK's agent and Bergevin: pointing to different 'comparables' and drawing quite different conclusions. Still, Willey's examples mostly clock in at around $3.5. The Habs supposed offer was a million less. Seems pretty 'lowball' to me - it's 30% below PK's market value according to Willey himself. Factor in Montreal taxes, upward of $4 mil still makes sense as a final resting place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can't just use the $ paid to other players or points and +/- stats alone to find a comparable. You need to factor in when the contract was signed.

As an example, Bogosian plays no where near the minutes, or has the same quality of matchups that PK has. YOu can point to PK's relatively low plus rating, but you also need to factor in just how bad the habs were last year.

IMO the best comparables to PK from your list are Myers and Hedman. I'd add letang to that list, but you have to factor in when his contract was signed and going forward his conussion baggage.

Why it a $2.75 million contract for a 23 year old being called a screw job?

It's all nice and fine to compare PK to Myers or Staal or Doughty but you can easily compare him to others in the $2.5-$3.5 range which is where the contract was.

7 goals, 29 assists and 36 points with a +9

Zack Bogosian

5 goals, 25 assists in 65 games and signed a 2 year $2.5 million contract.

Alex Edler

Final year in entry level had 10 g, 27 assists and 37 points +11signed at $3.25 per season

Victor Hedman

5 goals, 18 assists in 61 games signed at $ 4million per season

VlaSIC

6 goals, 30 assists for 36 points +15 and signed for $3.1 million

Letang

3 goals, 21 assits for 24 points and signed for $3.5 million

A list of guys who are just as important to their teams, put up similar numbers to Subban, all except for Bogosian are better in their own zone and yet they cannot be used as comparibles because the totals are not in excess of $4 million?

A $2.75 million contract is definitely not low balling. It was the starting point to where PK will sign for between $3.0 and $3.5 which is where he deserves to be signed. Forget the Myers and Staals, think about the majority of players in his category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can't just use the $ paid to other players or points and +/- stats alone to find a comparable. You need to factor in when the contract was signed.

As an example, Bogosian plays no where near the minutes, or has the same quality of matchups that PK has. YOu can point to PK's relatively low plus rating, but you also need to factor in just how bad the habs were last year.

IMO the best comparables to PK from your list are Myers and Hedman. I'd add letang to that list, but you have to factor in when his contract was signed and going forward his conussion baggage.

Vlasic signed this summer for 5 years $21m...he's more then $3.5m per now...

I think you need to put forward a few more reasons why Myers and Hedman are better comparables. You look like you are just ignoring the other guys because they don't make your case. Hedman and Myers were also both high first round picks so they started off with higher entry level salaries and, since future salaries rarely go down, it's no surprise their current pay is slightly higher.

Bogosian, Edler and Vlasic all played pretty equal minutes to Subban give or take.

All were providing similar offensive production.

Argue about whose better defensively all you want...I'm okay with Subban defensively but he makes some doozy mistakes sometimes...but thus far I figure that's just youthful exuberance.

Not sure where all these guys relative to when they become UFA but I'm pretty sure Edler and Vlasic are entering the last year of their RFA status. Bogosian has one more year in the league then Subban I believe...and of course Bogosian also was a top 1st round pick with the initially higher entry level deal/expectation.

Based on comparables (production, TOI, career GP, past contract levels, etc) I could easily see Subban getting closer to $3M/per on a shorter term deal...say 2 years. If they want to give him 3 years it's probably closer to $3.5M. Assuming it's not eating into UFA years (which I think is after the 3 years...but I'm not 100% sure).

If he gets over $4M it's a brutal deal IMHO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vlasic signed this summer for 5 years $21m...he's more then $3.5m per now...

I think you need to put forward a few more reasons why Myers and Hedman are better comparables. You look like you are just ignoring the other guys because they don't make your case. Hedman and Myers were also both high first round picks so they started off with higher entry level salaries and, since future salaries rarely go down, it's no surprise their current pay is slightly higher.

Bogosian, Edler and Vlasic all played pretty equal minutes to Subban give or take.

All were providing similar offensive production.

Argue about whose better defensively all you want...I'm okay with Subban defensively but he makes some doozy mistakes sometimes...but thus far I figure that's just youthful exuberance.

Not sure where all these guys relative to when they become UFA but I'm pretty sure Edler and Vlasic are entering the last year of their RFA status. Bogosian has one more year in the league then Subban I believe...and of course Bogosian also was a top 1st round pick with the initially higher entry level deal/expectation.

Based on comparables (production, TOI, career GP, past contract levels, etc) I could easily see Subban getting closer to $3M/per on a shorter term deal...say 2 years. If they want to give him 3 years it's probably closer to $3.5M. Assuming it's not eating into UFA years (which I think is after the 3 years...but I'm not 100% sure).

If he gets over $4M it's a brutal deal IMHO.

anywhere from $3.5 to 5.5 seems fine with me, i would say he is easily as valuable to Habs as Taylor Hall is too the Oilers and he got $6/year and when a mediocre player like Wideman gets $5.25/year that also raises the bar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If he gets over $4M it's a brutal deal IMHO.

The reason saying stuff like this is silly is because Subban could get $6M and then live up to the price of a $6M defenceman. Saying him getting more than $4M is brutal means you do not believe Subban could play up to more than $4M. What you want is a bargain.

Subban should and will get less than Erik Karlsson but I don't consider Karlsson's ceiling to be higher than Subban's. They are about the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban is a very good young player with a boat load of potential, however, not $6Million dollars worth just yet! Mr. Meehan is working for his client and that is what he is hired to do. However, he is not being realistic and I doubt Montreal pays that much. I would like to see the GM pull a Sam Pollock on this player and look to move him. Montreal has good young prospects in the wings for defense. But what do I know, just a fan. :pray:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban is a very good young player with a boat load of potential, however, not $6Million dollars worth just yet! Mr. Meehan is working for his client and that is what he is hired to do. However, he is not being realistic and I doubt Montreal pays that much. I would like to see the GM pull a Sam Pollock on this player and look to move him. Montreal has good young prospects in the wings for defense. But what do I know, just a fan. :pray:

Yeah, like how Pollock traded Dryden when he held out for a whole 73-74 season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban is a very good young player with a boat load of potential, however, not $6Million dollars worth just yet! Mr. Meehan is working for his client and that is what he is hired to do. However, he is not being realistic and I doubt Montreal pays that much. I would like to see the GM pull a Sam Pollock on this player and look to move him. Montreal has good young prospects in the wings for defense. But what do I know, just a fan. :pray:

If PK refuses to sign maybe you trade him but that's highly unlikely and I'd want a boatload in return

RFAs don't have any options except sitting out and even that rarely happens anymore cause it just hurts their development or they end up traded anyways like Turris, if Subban likes Montreal as much as he says doubt he risks being exiled to wherever MB might choose, Edmonton for example - no offence to the Edmontonians, great mall you have there but insanely cold winters

Maybe an offer sheet comes out if another GM wants to take advantage of the feud but if it hasnt yet with Phillys blueline looking like the Habs in 2010 its also unlikely

I see MB sticking to the 2 year deal the rest have signed but upping the $ some to $3.5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe an offer sheet comes out if another GM wants to take advantage of the feud but if it hasnt yet with Phillys blueline looking like the Habs in 2010 its also unlikely

I've heard through the grapevine that Detroit made a very nice offer sheet offer to Subban over a month ago and he just hasn't signed it because he has no interest playing elsewhere. If Bergevin holds steady, Subban might consider it to force his hand much like what happened between Philly and Nashville.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've heard through the grapevine that Detroit made a very nice offer sheet offer to Subban over a month ago and he just hasn't signed it because he has no interest playing elsewhere. If Bergevin holds steady, Subban might consider it to force his hand much like what happened between Philly and Nashville.

That's huge if it's true, to turn down a chance to go to a perennial contender and 1st class team like the Wings would be tough regardless if you felt you were getting jerked around by your current team

If I was MB hard not to reward that kind of loyalty

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's huge if it's true, to turn down a chance to go to a perennial contender and 1st class team like the Wings would be tough regardless if you felt you were getting jerked around by your current team

If I was MB hard not to reward that kind of loyalty

The rumour could have been sprouted over the idea that Detroit was doing nothing to replace Lidstrom but I agree that it is the kind of loyalty that deserves what he wants to be paid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban should and will get less than Erik Karlsson but I don't consider Karlsson's ceiling to be higher than Subban's. They are about the same.

Erik Karlsson's ceiling is a Norris Trophy winner. No matter what he does from here on out, his ceiling is the best defenseman in the world for a particular year. As much as I love Subban, I do not believe he will ever win the Norris.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doubt many had Karlsson pegged for a Norris before his breakout last year and Phaneuf should've had a few on his mantle by now according to the experts so hard to predict

Not a stretch for the Habs to pick up their PP and Subban get and extra 20-30 points as he develops. If Karlsson comes back to earth nobody else was running away with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Erik Karlsson's ceiling is a Norris Trophy winner. No matter what he does from here on out, his ceiling is the best defenseman in the world for a particular year. As much as I love Subban, I do not believe he will ever win the Norris.

Not a chance in the world Karlsson is the best d-man in world! Maybe best offensive d-man or 4th forward in the NHL for 1 year is it, he aint no hall of famer quite yet.

Defensemen normally are good at defending, the swede aint, he cant hit, clear front of net and also some d-men kill penalties, none of which Karlsson does.

Karlsson had 71 points, while Subban had 74 points in their 1st two NHL seasons. So explain to me again why Karlsson is a better d-man?

Subban does it all and is very likely to equal the offense of the swede over their careers. I would guess 60:40 that Subban gets 1 Norris some time (maybe a bit biased, but i think his upside is pretty darn high)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban is not likely to become a Nik Lidstrom or Ray Bourque type, that is, a guy who dominates his contemporaries. But I don't see any reason for doubting that he has a pretty solid chance to be in the top 10 defencemen of his generation. Project that over a 15-year career, I'm not sure what grounds exist for saying he will never win the Norris. If he finishes his career with at least one Norris that wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I just don't understand people who are less than exhilarated by PK Subban. What more do we want from a 23-year-old defenceman, anyway? He eats massive minutes against other teams's top talent, he hits, he puts up points, opponents hate him, and he defends well notwithstanding occasional 'young player' breakdowns. If he were on any other team, we'd be giving our eyeteeth to get him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The reason saying stuff like this is silly is because Subban could get $6M and then live up to the price of a $6M defenceman. Saying him getting more than $4M is brutal means you do not believe Subban could play up to more than $4M. What you want is a bargain.

Subban should and will get less than Erik Karlsson but I don't consider Karlsson's ceiling to be higher than Subban's. They are about the same.

It's not silly at all...Taylor Hall was the #1 pick overall and jumped directly into the NHL. There is a big difference between these two players. Comparing the players and their situation is, frankly, pretty ridiculous.

There is NO REASON to pay Subban over $4M. Period. They have NO REASON to pay him huge dollars because he MIGHT live up to being a $6M/year player. If he lives up to that level then you pay him to that level. GM's who pay for MAYBE are doomed to failure because they lock up salary in some players that don't fully pan out as expected. If the RFA structure was not as it is currently and he was free to sign on the open market then sure, he's probably worth more then $4M...but unless someone signs him to a big offer sheet why would you ever want to pay more then the system allows. It's just bad cap management and bad business to do otherwise.

As for Karlsson...he's 1 year younger and while their offense has been similar from their first 2 seasons that means something at their young age. The fact that Karlsson won the Norris is a pretty big deal in the salary discussions...just sayin'...Subban doesn't have that leverage in negotiations. Perhaps most importantly, Subban didn't just have a 78 point season to leverage in his salary negotiation...kind of a big deal no? You'd have to be off your rocker to give Subban Karlsson money before Subban puts up a similar performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a chance in the world Karlsson is the best d-man in world! Maybe best offensive d-man or 4th forward in the NHL for 1 year is it, he aint no hall of famer quite yet.

Defensemen normally are good at defending, the swede aint, he cant hit, clear front of net and also some d-men kill penalties, none of which Karlsson does.

Karlsson had 71 points, while Subban had 74 points in their 1st two NHL seasons. So explain to me again why Karlsson is a better d-man?

Subban does it all and is very likely to equal the offense of the swede over their careers. I would guess 60:40 that Subban gets 1 Norris some time (maybe a bit biased, but i think his upside is pretty darn high)?

I could of sworn that Karlsson was just voted the best defenseman in the best league in the world. Put all the intangibles aside, he won. He was miles away the highest scoring d-man and was a huge reason the Sens made it as far as they did, despite being predicted to be at the bottom of the conference. Who said anything about being a hall of famer? All I said was that he has already achieved the greatest honor that a d-man can obtain. And that I think that Subban will not do so. There are a plethora of great young d-man coming up and already in the league. Even if Subban puts together a Norris caliber season, I do not believe he will get the votes. Would I trade P.K Subban for Erik Karlsson? No.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure what grounds exist for saying he will never win the Norris. If he finishes his career with at least one Norris that wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I'm not sure what grounds exist for saying that he WILL win the Norris.

I love PK just as much as the next guy and think that he will be our best d-man for years to come. That doesn't necessarily equate to being the league's best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

78 points... he was 25 points higher than the next highest defenceman.

He scored almost 50% more points than his closest competitor.

Thats crazy... thats a Gretzky or Lemieux level of dominance when it comes to how many points you scored and how many the 2nd best guy got.

Karlsson may never repeat that season, and may never reach a level where he gets compared to those guys again... but for 1 season he was clearly the best D in the game.

Yes the Norris is for best "all-around" defenseman.

His defensive game is good (not great, not best in the league, but good), and his offensive game blew everyone else out of the water.

When you are good enough on defence... and have offensive skill that is head and shoulders above everyone else... you are "best all around" because no other d can make up for the offensive difference with a defensive one.

For that reason he was the best defenceman last year and a deserving Norris Winner.

I doubt he repeats though. The season was too crazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subban is not likely to become a Nik Lidstrom or Ray Bourque type, that is, a guy who dominates his contemporaries. But I don't see any reason for doubting that he has a pretty solid chance to be in the top 10 defencemen of his generation. Project that over a 15-year career, I'm not sure what grounds exist for saying he will never win the Norris. If he finishes his career with at least one Norris that wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I just don't understand people who are less than exhilarated by PK Subban. What more do we want from a 23-year-old defenceman, anyway? He eats massive minutes against other teams's top talent, he hits, he puts up points, opponents hate him, and he defends well notwithstanding occasional 'young player' breakdowns. If he were on any other team, we'd be giving our eyeteeth to get him.

I agree with all you say but;

Ray Bourque was most overrated d-man of all time, so i hope he never becomes that, even Bruins fans will admit he was overrated (mostly because he was never a good leader and jumped ship to get a cup on a team that could carry him, thanks to Sakic and Roy).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could of sworn that Karlsson was just voted the best defenseman in the best league in the world. Put all the intangibles aside, he won. He was miles away the highest scoring d-man and was a huge reason the Sens made it as far as they did, despite being predicted to be at the bottom of the conference. Who said anything about being a hall of famer? All I said was that he has already achieved the greatest honor that a d-man can obtain. And that I think that Subban will not do so. There are a plethora of great young d-man coming up and already in the league. Even if Subban puts together a Norris caliber season, I do not believe he will get the votes. Would I trade P.K Subban for Erik Karlsson? No.

HoF not a higher honour than a one year wonder who cant even play the position well? a la Green with Caps, can put up points but defend, not a chance.

So i would call that type a 4th forward undeserving of a defender honour that should of gone to good d-man like Chara/Lidstrom/Weber/Pietrangelo; whose balance of scoring/defending skills is far superior and i would of just ignored the extra 20 points Karlsson got.

They already have the Richard and numerous other scoring trophies for point getters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They've got best offensive/defensive forward trophies, boggles my mind they don't have best offensive/defensive defencemen trophies yet to end these debates that have gone on 30 years to Coffey's days and probably even before

I hate the Bs but hard time calling Bourque overrated, I'm a big PK fan but if there's one thing I wish he would learn from Ray is importance of getting the puck through to the net, even if it's only a wrister - like a golf coach once told me, stop trying to be John Daly with your backswing - the 300 yard drive looks great when it happens 1/20 times - same thing for Subban, his stick to the rafters windup looks awesome when he slams it home but the rest usually miss, get blocked, and no doubt scare the hell out of teammates trying to screen the goalie.

That might come with maturity - it hasn't with me and my golf game, hit 2 fairways last week...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HoF not a higher honour than a one year wonder who cant even play the position well? a la Green with Caps, can put up points but defend, not a chance.

So i would call that type a 4th forward undeserving of a defender honour that should of gone to good d-man like Chara/Lidstrom/Weber/Pietrangelo; whose balance of scoring/defending skills is far superior and i would of just ignored the extra 20 points Karlsson got.

They already have the Richard and numerous other scoring trophies for point getters.

Did you really say that the current Norris trophy winner cannot play his position well? And that's based on what you think a defenseman should be? A defenseman can be whatever he wants to be. Usually it is whatever helps his team to win the most. If Karlsson wants to be a "4th forward", good for him. As long as his team is successful, then he is doing the right things. There is no exact definition of what a defenseman is. Just like there is no definition of what a Norris winner should be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure what grounds exist for saying that he WILL win the Norris.

I love PK just as much as the next guy and think that he will be our best d-man for years to come. That doesn't necessarily equate to being the league's best.

I didn't say he WILL win the Norris. I said he seems like a player for whom eventually winning a Norris is a credible possibility. The 'grounds' for saying this are that he is one of the top young defencemen of his generation, top 10, as I suggested above. If you can't say that a player like could plausibly become a Norris winner someday, of whom can you say it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't believe someone said Bourque was overrated...wow...I hate the Bruins but lets give credit where it's due.

I hope all the people in here that think the Habs should open up the pocket book big time, for a lengthy period, based on a "maybe", and at a time where he has limited leverage in the negotiation, are never running a business. I'd hate to see your household budgets.

As a fan, I don't care if the team spends max dollars from a cost standpoint...in fact, I prefer it. However, I do want them to spend those dollars intelligently in a cap environment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...