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You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr

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If Carbo is correct that PK rejected Meehans advice to accept a two year deal, then we have a player problem. If PK wants to negotiate hard on the price for those two years, that's cool, but it sounds like he has decided he is Doughty and should be locked down for 6 years at a high price. Sorry, but two years experience doesn't cut it for me. Last year he was down offensively but did improve his defensive game. He was the top D on the worse team who's real number one guy was injured. He was the quarter back on what was one of the worst Pp units in the league.

I like PK. I think he will be a great D. I don't see him having a complete game yet. I don't think he is a number one guy on most of the elite teams, at least not yet.

I hope he comes to his senses and starts negotiating on a two year deal. He should get around 4 a year, IMO, which reflects his talent and his RFA status.

I hope this doesn't end in a trade.

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The Fourth Period reports Montreal refuses to budge on 2 years, $3.5M while Subban is looking for five years at $5.5M

If it's true that Subban refuses to sign for two years, I agree that he should be willing to negotiate. However, if Montreal is trying to tell PK Subban he should make less than Cam Fowler and the same as Rene Bourque, I think we should be hoping for management to be cleared out by next season.

It feels like we're inching closer and closer to a Scott Gomez situation. You know, losing an elite defenceman under 25 with nothing to show for it in three years.

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The Fourth Period reports Montreal refuses to budge on 2 years, $3.5M while Subban is looking for five years at $5.5M

If it's true that Subban refuses to sign for two years, I agree that he should be willing to negotiate. However, if Montreal is trying to tell PK Subban he should make less than Cam Fowler and the same as Rene Bourque, I think we should be hoping for management to be cleared out by next season.

It feels like we're inching closer and closer to a Scott Gomez situation. You know, losing an elite defenceman under 25 with nothing to show for it in three years.

I don't think we're anywhere close to a Gomez situation, at least for now. I doubt the Habs are shopping or entertaining offers for Subban yet and probably won't for a while yet as there's little reason to at this point. Plan A is still to get him signed. I'm also not sure the Habs would take on a Gomez-type contract in a deal, especially when the cap is about to drop. If they did move him, I would guess that they'd want a replacement body (2nd pairing type) and then futures (prospects/picks).

2/7 is a number I haven't seen yet (with TFP reporting it, I'm not sure I believe it either) but that one could be an interesting setup. Go with $3M this year and $4M next year (it fits, albeit barely, within the 35% rule). For Subban, it's better to get as much money as possible in that second year since this season it'd be pro-rated (if he signed today he'd get about half of the stated value) while it also guarantees a QO of $4 million the following year; that number becomes the starting point on what would be the long-term deal.

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I don't think we're anywhere close to a Gomez situation, at least for now. I doubt the Habs are shopping or entertaining offers for Subban yet and probably won't for a while yet as there's little reason to at this point. Plan A is still to get him signed. I'm also not sure the Habs would take on a Gomez-type contract in a deal, especially when the cap is about to drop. If they did move him, I would guess that they'd want a replacement body (2nd pairing type) and then futures (prospects/picks).

2/7 is a number I haven't seen yet (with TFP reporting it, I'm not sure I believe it either) but that one could be an interesting setup. Go with $3M this year and $4M next year (it fits, albeit barely, within the 35% rule). For Subban, it's better to get as much money as possible in that second year since this season it'd be pro-rated (if he signed today he'd get about half of the stated value) while it also guarantees a QO of $4 million the following year; that number becomes the starting point on what would be the long-term deal.

I guarantee you MB is entertain offers. No matter what player on any roster, GMs are willing to entertain offers. Doesn't mean they will accept or negotiate them, but they will entertain. To not at least entertain offers is to not do your job. I just want to make it clear to everyone thinking we're not listening to offers, that we are. While a trade does look unlikely, it's always a possibility. Ok, end of that rant.

Meant to put this in originally. A story from TSN with excerpts from the Montreal Gazette. Shows you Subban's over-inflated attitude and self valuation. Goes back to my point awhile ago if he thinks he's plateaued and wants a big contract so he can coast.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=414354

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I guarantee you MB is entertain offers. No matter what player on any roster, GMs are willing to entertain offers. Doesn't mean they will accept or negotiate them, but they will entertain. To not at least entertain offers is to not do your job. I just want to make it clear to everyone thinking we're not listening to offers, that we are. While a trade does look unlikely, it's always a possibility. Ok, end of that rant.

I should have phrased that better - I meant 'entertain' as in actively encouraging or soliciting offers. If someone wants to make a pitch that can be filed away until a decision on whether or not to trade him is made, that's one thing, he'd be nuts to not listen and file it away in the memory banks for potential future use. I'd be surprised if he was doing anything beyond that at the moment.

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People need to remember that there are three categories of players, entry level, RFA, and UFA. Comparison a UFA contract to an offer to Subban is nuts. Subban has four years of RFA left and that LOWERS his salary vs an UFA. If you go long term and buy UFA years, you pay for it, but a two year deal means he is not getting UFA money.

I still don't see any offer sheets on the table. One might come yet, but I suspect a lot of GMs are wary of a long term, big money deal with him.

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As for offersheets, I would expect to see one from Philly if anyone puts one on the table, but it won't happen if they make a big push and get Loungo. I don't see Philly getting Loungo anyway. Been hearing Edmonton constantly popping up around Luongo rumors. As much as people don't believe the Oilers will make a play because of their young talent, they do have a whole plethora of talent not in the NHL. Still if Philly doesn't get Loungo and they continue to lose I would expect further trade talk or an offersheet coming from them. This is just my opinion though.

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People need to remember that there are three categories of players, entry level, RFA, and UFA. Comparison a UFA contract to an offer to Subban is nuts. Subban has four years of RFA left and that LOWERS his salary vs an UFA. If you go long term and buy UFA years, you pay for it, but a two year deal means he is not getting UFA money.

I still don't see any offer sheets on the table. One might come yet, but I suspect a lot of GMs are wary of a long term, big money deal with him.

Give me ONE good reason why Subban should earn less than, let's say, Sami Salo and I'll buy this argument of RFA vs UFA salaries.

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Give me ONE good reason why Subban should earn less than, let's say, Sami Salo and I'll buy this argument of RFA vs UFA salaries.

Because Salo has suffered every possible injury known to man? ;)

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J-F Chaumont ‏@JFChaumont

#Habs: Don Meehan en entrevue au téléphone: « P.K. m’a demandé de trouver un terrain d’entente rapidement » - Meehan

Meehan says PK has directed him to find "grounds for agreement" quickly.

Thats great news! Looks like he may of finally came to his senses or got some advisement from someone else about damaging his career for money.

Or is this just PR? We all went through the lockout and saw these types of stunts from both sides. Could it be just PK wanting to say he is trying everything possible without actually trying it?

Until we get an answer I'll sit here in my tinfoil hat :bonk:

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Interesting that there was a tsn poll today heavily in favor of Bergevin, plus the Carbo leak. Perhaps PK sees this is hurting his rep more then it is getting him a deal and decided to go for the bridge. Who knows, but I hope he is on the way to a deal. I can tell you one thing, Diaz is loving playing with Markov and that could be PK. With his personality, I can't see him holding out to long, he loves to play.

Subban is holding out = Subban is not a team player.

God damnit why didn't Sam Pollock trade Ken Dryden for not being a team player in 1973?

Yeah, that's nonsense. This is just business.

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Give me ONE good reason why Subban should earn less than, let's say, Sami Salo and I'll buy this argument of RFA vs UFA salaries.

Think of the RFA system as something similar to the arbitration (RFA-type) system in MLB. In baseball, you come off your 'entry level deal' (league minimum) and have 3 years of arbitration eligibility (for those who follow MLB, I know there's Super 2 but that doesn't matter here). In those arbitration years, you work your way closer to market value the closer you get to free agency. The general consensus is that in your first year of arbitration, you get around 40% of market value, then 60%, then 80%. So a player whose career numbers would make him an $8 million player in free agency, rough salaries for that player would be $3.2 M, $4.8 M, and $6.4M. Only when the player hits the market does he get full value.

The RFA system in hockey is supposed to be similar to that. Coming off a standard entry-level deal (ages 20-22), you've got 4 years to build up to that full market value. If you go the arbitration route (an avenue that Subban isn't even eligible for at this particular moment, he's too young), the arbitrator doesn't award the amount of money said player would earn as a UFA. Your remaining RFA years are, in theory, supposed to slowly get you to that point. Of course, the market has changed since the last lockout as some teams want to go long-term and pay for potential over performance in the hopes of future savings (hoping the player exceeds market value down the road).

Salo, as a UFA, had the potential of up to 30 suitors vying for his services. As a UFA, teams will have to pay, in theory, full market value. As an RFA, Subban's suitors are a lot more limited; basic economics say that when the demand (suitors) is down, cost goes down. It's not just about talent, players just simply don't receive 100% of their market value the day they come off their ELC's. The NHLPA would kill to have that. The RFA system is designed to drive down demand to help limit the market and lower the cost of RFA's.

Let's suppose Subban signs four 1-year deals and the belief is that his production with the Habs would peg him at $6.5M if he was a UFA. Salaries of $3M, $4M, $5M, and $6M is the type of route that the system ideally would yield (building your way close to market value as you become closer to unrestricted free agency). Salo's case was entirely different because he was unrestricted...and he found a team willing to pay that much for what often is damaged goods.

I've rambled on longer than I intended here so I'll sum it up quickly: UFA's get full market value, RFA's work their way slowly towards that value the closer they get to UFA age. That's not always how it works but that's how the system is intended to work. As a first year RFA, Subban should be on the lower end of the value scale.

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Think of the RFA system as something similar to the arbitration (RFA-type) system in MLB. In baseball, you come off your 'entry level deal' (league minimum) and have 3 years of arbitration eligibility (for those who follow MLB, I know there's Super 2 but that doesn't matter here). In those arbitration years, you work your way closer to market value the closer you get to free agency. The general consensus is that in your first year of arbitration, you get around 40% of market value, then 60%, then 80%. So a player whose career numbers would make him an $8 million player in free agency, rough salaries for that player would be $3.2 M, $4.8 M, and $6.4M. Only when the player hits the market does he get full value.

The RFA system in hockey is supposed to be similar to that. Coming off a standard entry-level deal (ages 20-22), you've got 4 years to build up to that full market value. If you go the arbitration route (an avenue that Subban isn't even eligible for at this particular moment, he's too young), the arbitrator doesn't award the amount of money said player would earn as a UFA. Your remaining RFA years are, in theory, supposed to slowly get you to that point. Of course, the market has changed since the last lockout as some teams want to go long-term and pay for potential over performance in the hopes of future savings (hoping the player exceeds market value down the road).

Salo, as a UFA, had the potential of up to 30 suitors vying for his services. As a UFA, teams will have to pay, in theory, full market value. As an RFA, Subban's suitors are a lot more limited; basic economics say that when the demand (suitors) is down, cost goes down. It's not just about talent, players just simply don't receive 100% of their market value the day they come off their ELC's. The NHLPA would kill to have that. The RFA system is designed to drive down demand to help limit the market and lower the cost of RFA's.

Let's suppose Subban signs four 1-year deals and the belief is that his production with the Habs would peg him at $6.5M if he was a UFA. Salaries of $3M, $4M, $5M, and $6M is the type of route that the system ideally would yield (building your way close to market value as you become closer to unrestricted free agency). Salo's case was entirely different because he was unrestricted...and he found a team willing to pay that much for what often is damaged goods.

I've rambled on longer than I intended here so I'll sum it up quickly: UFA's get full market value, RFA's work their way slowly towards that value the closer they get to UFA age. That's not always how it works but that's how the system is intended to work. As a first year RFA, Subban should be on the lower end of the value scale.

I get all that Brian. This is from team's perspective.

But my point is :

If Taylor Hall goes from 0,9M$ straight to 6M$ of cap hit, why the hell do we want Subban to make 2,5M$ ???

Don't tell me that Hall brings much more to his team than Subban does, cuz I don't buy that at all.

See Cam Fowler and 4M$ as another example.

I trully believe and respect Subban for wanting to be paid what he deserves.

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If Taylor Hall goes from 0,9M$ straight to 6M$ of cap hit, why the hell do we want Subban to make 2,5M$ ???

Don't tell me that Hall brings much more to his team than Subban does, cuz I don't buy that at all.

See Cam Fowler and 4M$ as another example.

I trully believe and respect Subban for wanting to be paid what he deserves.

Is Hall actually 'worth' $6M right now? Probably not. Edmonton gave Hall a 6x6 extension (already a different situation from Subban) but they could have given him 4, 5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5. That works out to 6 years, $36 M too and is probably a more accurate valuation of where he is now and where the Oilers hope he will be in the future compared to a uniform 6 across the board. They hope that he'll produce more like a $7.5 million player regularly, creating a good value contract, he didn't get $6M next year because that's what he's worth today. Frankly I'm of the opinion they overpaid on that contract (I find most of those deals are unnecessary based on the system) so I don't really want to compare it to Subban's situation. The system is supposed to be that if you're a $6M type of player, you get $6M...when you're a UFA, not before. Before that time, you get less. The Habs historically have subscribed to that theory, that's why they're pushing for the bridge.

By the way, Hall's cap hit is $3.75 M with bonuses - he won't hit all of them but he'll be making a lot more than $900,000 this year.

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I get all that Brian. This is from team's perspective.

But my point is :

If Taylor Hall goes from 0,9M$ straight to 6M$ of cap hit, why the hell do we want Subban to make 2,5M$ ???

Don't tell me that Hall brings much more to his team than Subban does, cuz I don't buy that at all.

See Cam Fowler and 4M$ as another example.

I trully believe and respect Subban for wanting to be paid what he deserves.

Can you explain why you respect what he is doing since you neither know what we wants or what we have offered? Taylor Hall was 1st overall pick. PK? 2nd round. Comparison is not valid, as to fowler I offer the following analysys:

"Fowler's deal will pay him $20 million over five years for a cap hit of $4 million per year. It's a bit of a risk for Ducks' GM Bob Murray, as Fowler had an impressive rookie campaign, putting up 10 goals and 30 assists in 2010-11, but regressed to 5 goals and 24 assists in his sophomore year. Worse, he's a career minus-53, so the defensive side of his game still needs some work." Harrison Mooney of puck daddy.

That is just a bad signing imo.

Just because some GM makes a risky signing does not mean we have to,does it? However I would happily sign PK to 6 years 4 mill per year.

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Can you explain why you respect what he is doing since you neither know what we wants or what we have offered? Taylor Hall was 1st overall pick. PK? 2nd round. Comparison is not valid, as to fowler I offer the following analysys:

"Fowler's deal will pay him $20 million over five years for a cap hit of $4 million per year. It's a bit of a risk for Ducks' GM Bob Murray, as Fowler had an impressive rookie campaign, putting up 10 goals and 30 assists in 2010-11, but regressed to 5 goals and 24 assists in his sophomore year. Worse, he's a career minus-53, so the defensive side of his game still needs some work." Harrison Mooney of puck daddy.

That is just a bad signing imo.

Just because some GM makes a risky signing does not mean we have to,does it? However I would happily sign PK to 6 years 4 mill per year.

Let's say you work for Coca Cola and Johnny Beuvais works for Pepsi. You both work in the advertising department and both sell X quantity of Coke and Pepsi.

It's time to renew your contract. Johnny Beauvais receives 85K of salary for X years. He sold about the same amount of bottles than you and your business averaged about the same profits than his.

Now would you want to get 85K for X years you too ? Or would you want to sign for less because you think Pepsi went with a bad signing ?

Stop thinking as a fan. Start thinking as Subban. He put up about the same numbers of points and both Anaheim and Montreal missed last season's playoffs.

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Let's say you work for Coca Cola and Johnny Beuvais works for Pepsi. You both work in the advertising department and both sell X quantity of Coke and Pepsi.

It's time to renew your contract. Johnny Beauvais receives 85K of salary for X years. He sold about the same amount of bottles than you and your business averaged about the same profits than his.

Now would you want to get 85K for X years you too ? Or would you want to sign for less because you think Pepsi went with a bad signing ?

Stop thinking as a fan. Start thinking as Subban. He put up about the same numbers of points and both Anaheim and Montreal missed last season's playoffs.

Depends. My value is what it is to my organization. Many people in the real world don't get market value, if you base market value on what your buddy got out of his boss.

If Montreal was paying a similar RFA more money, then PK has an argument, but as has been explained, he isn't in the general market. So far, no one has offered him more money via an offer sheet and a two year bridge deal has been the standard practice in Montreal.

If the Leafs suddenly offered Komo a $9m extension, would we need to pay Subban $10m? No...we would laugh at the leafs.

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We gave Max Pac (A few months older than PK... a 6 year extension at 4.5 million).... PK isn't offered close to that.

That is less the PK reportedly wants and it was after his bridge deal. Yes, PK had a better season, but that warrants a higher bridge deal, not a longer term. Same goes for Price. PK played a lot last year but he did have a decline in production despite the Markov injury giving him so much ice time. It might have been different if PK made our PP better, but he just made us miss Markov.

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That is less the PK reportedly wants and it was after his bridge deal. Yes, PK had a better season, but that warrants a higher bridge deal, not a longer term. Same goes for Price. PK played a lot last year but he did have a decline in production despite the Markov injury giving him so much ice time. It might have been different if PK made our PP better, but he just made us miss Markov.

If the rumored numbers are correct PK is asking too much and Bergevin offering too little though

Its not just a one way thing.

As for PK's decline in offence, he was much better defensively and given the role of a number 1 shut down D. Its to be expected, but I do believe he will continue to grow at both.

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Nobody knows what Bergervin has offered, nobody. A great deal of gueses and made up stories. Meahan has not mentioned time and money nor has Bergervin. Only PK said he wants to be paid his worth, key word "his" worth based on a self assessment. I do not know more then anyone else but I would see a 2 year deal of 3 to 3.25 million per year. That would be a fair raise over last year's salary.

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