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You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr

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<End of hijack> :)

I closed the Subban poll on the site tonight, figured I'd post the results here. The question, of course, was how long should the Habs sign him for?

1-2 years: 27%

3-4 years: 32%

5-6 years: 21%

7-8 years: 9%

Trade him instead: 11%

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11% want to trade him??? Seriously?????

<End of hijack> :)

I closed the Subban poll on the site tonight, figured I'd post the results here. The question, of course, was how long should the Habs sign him for?

1-2 years: 27%

3-4 years: 32%

5-6 years: 21%

7-8 years: 9%

Trade him instead: 11%

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in retrospect, sure, but at the time people were screaming to lock them up. Its really hard to predict if you are hoping to save a bit of money in a long term deal. I view it like stocks.. most people point to some guy locked up at what appears to be a bargain, but they ignore the guys that are over paid due to being locked up. In the end, it is a bit of a crap shoot.

I kind of like the way Marleau has been handled. Paid what he is worth, but never a long contract. Hasn't stopped him from resigning extensions with San Jose and they certainly have little to complain about with his consistent performance.

No not in retrospect. Subban is (much) better right now than were all of these guys at the same stage of their career.

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No not in retrospect. Subban is (much) better right now than were all of these guys at the same stage of their career.

Perhaps, but people wanted them locked up too. PK is not a slam dunk and even if he was, injuries could ruin him. We don't have to lock him up now, so why compound the risk. If this was his post bridge, last RFA deal, I would be agreeing with you. The good part of the RFA years is we don't need to make that decision yet. We can get more data, then make a decision. The only downside of waiting is we might pay a bit more later, but that is a happy problem.

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Perhaps, but people wanted them locked up too. PK is not a slam dunk and even if he was, injuries could ruin him. We don't have to lock him up now, so why compound the risk. If this was his post bridge, last RFA deal, I would be agreeing with you. The good part of the RFA years is we don't need to make that decision yet. We can get more data, then make a decision. The only downside of waiting is we might pay a bit more later, but that is a happy problem.

The problem with your viewpoint is that we just signed Price for $6.5M per season on the cap and next game he might break his leg and never be a starter again. There is nothing worse with making any injuries on the FEAR of a player getting injured that isn't, "We need as much depth as possible". You cannot make contract decisions on, "He might get injured!" because you cannot predict the future.

We might pay a little more is a happy problem? Listen, if Subban signs for $2.5M per season and we suddenly have the best bargain in the NHL for a defenceman? Bergevin did his job. But if Subban decides to leave because of this or after this contract, or this sets a terrible precedent for our future young talents (which we have a LOT coming in the next three seasons), then I'm fearful for the future of this team.

I'll propose it again. Say Galchenyuk becomes as good as we think he'll be in the next three seasons. Do you think Bergevin is going to offer him a bridge deal and do you think Galchenyuk is ever going to sign it?

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The problem with your viewpoint is that we just signed Price for $6.5M per season on the cap and next game he might break his leg and never be a starter again. There is nothing worse with making any injuries on the FEAR of a player getting injured that isn't, "We need as much depth as possible". You cannot make contract decisions on, "He might get injured!" because you cannot predict the future.

We might pay a little more is a happy problem? Listen, if Subban signs for $2.5M per season and we suddenly have the best bargain in the NHL for a defenceman? Bergevin did his job. But if Subban decides to leave because of this or after this contract, or this sets a terrible precedent for our future young talents (which we have a LOT coming in the next three seasons), then I'm fearful for the future of this team.

I'll propose it again. Say Galchenyuk becomes as good as we think he'll be in the next three seasons. Do you think Bergevin is going to offer him a bridge deal and do you think Galchenyuk is ever going to sign it?

Injuries are always a risk. Defer risk when possible.

Yes, paying Subban more means he really is good. I don't mind paying for output. I don't like paying more now in the hope that the player will end up a bargain later. Do that with four players and you probably get a wash in the end. If you really mess up, you hurt the team for years.

Yes, I give Galy a bridge deal. I see zero evidence that players are going to leave or refuse to sign the next deal because we didn't lock them up after the entry deal. Look, most of those deals were cap manipulation deals and very long term. We just had a lockout to end those deals. Eight years max, limits on variance. The Duncan Keith deal is no longer viable. If you want a player here long term, you are better off using a bridge deal then going eight years as they approach UFA. Those deals will be rare, IMO, since there is minor cap avoidance allowed.

I believe smart GMs will use a bridge, then four to six year extensions based on performance. Lesser players are going to get squeezed as you can't dump a cap tax on a GM nine years from now to over pay today. Those days are over.

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Today and tomorrow will be interesting. We should hear about P.K. very soon.

If I am Bergevin, I ask PK if he is ready to talk bridge deal. If PK says yes, bump up the cash a bit and weight more to next year to give PK a reason to sign today.

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Jamie Benn about his new contract :

http://starsinsideedge.com/2013/01/25/jamie-benn-excited-to-be-back-with-stars/

“It’s really great that Tom [Gaglardi, owner], Joe [Nieuwendyk, GM] and the Dallas Stars organization believe in me,” he said. “I’m happy that I’m a Star for five more years and I’m definitely looking forward to it.”

Probably not exactly how Subban sees things right now...

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Jamie Benn about his new contract :

http://starsinsideedge.com/2013/01/25/jamie-benn-excited-to-be-back-with-stars/

Its really great that Tom [Gaglardi, owner], Joe [Nieuwendyk, GM] and the Dallas Stars organization believe in me, he said. Im happy that Im a Star for five more years and Im definitely looking forward to it.

Probably not exactly how Subban sees things right now...

Don't worry about P.K. He is already richer than you will ever be. Whatever happens with him won't change your life. It's just hockey, for C's sake.
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That's a silly response.

I won't say that your answer was silly, because I believe that a hockey discussion should be fun and not the occasion to insult each other. I just tried to put things in perspective. That's all. Sorry if you thought that I wanted to be offensive.

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Jamie Benn about his new contract :

http://starsinsideedge.com/2013/01/25/jamie-benn-excited-to-be-back-with-stars/

“It’s really great that Tom [Gaglardi, owner], Joe [Nieuwendyk, GM] and the Dallas Stars organization believe in me,” he said. “I’m happy that I’m a Star for five more years and I’m definitely looking forward to it.”

Probably not exactly how Subban sees things right now...

Wow, never thought anybody would want to play hockey in Dallas for 5 years... hopefully the Stars have money to actually pay this contract.

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Food for thought. If Subban values himself at $5.5m-$6m now, what is Pietrangelo worth? $9m?

Pietrangelo will worth 7M$ pretty soon yeah.

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Jamie Benn about his new contract :

http://starsinsideedge.com/2013/01/25/jamie-benn-excited-to-be-back-with-stars/

“It’s really great that Tom [Gaglardi, owner], Joe [Nieuwendyk, GM] and the Dallas Stars organization believe in me,” he said. “I’m happy that I’m a Star for five more years and I’m definitely looking forward to it.”

Probably not exactly how Subban sees things right now...

Why? Benn was holding out too. Apparently, when signed he was happy. For the record, I think that was a bad contract. They are paying through the nose for one year of UFA. If they were going to pay that much, they should have gotten more years.

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Pietrangelo will worth 7M$ pretty soon yeah.

And when he tries to negotiate he'll have one more season then Subban, and playing at a higher level every year, to prove he's worth a longer term deal at bigger $$$...though I find it highly unlikely he'll get $7M per unless it's a 10 year deal (which I doubt STL would do given their market constraints).

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Why? Benn was holding out too. Apparently, when signed he was happy. For the record, I think that was a bad contract. They are paying through the nose for one year of UFA. If they were going to pay that much, they should have gotten more years.

Your best forward (arguably) at 5,25$ for 5 years a bad contract ??? Benn will take less than 10% of Dallas' salary cap over the next 5 seasons while Rag$ best forward will take 7,8M$ (while being somewhat better).

They have now 5 seasons to do whatever they want with Benn, trade him or extand him. And guess what, instead of watching games sitting on a couch at home, he actually plays the games.

Awesome isn't it ?

All of you guys who are bugged at the paycheck RFAs receive (should not overpay bla bla bla) are exactly like poker players that only play A-K, Q-Q, K-K and A-A. You will always end up in the money, but will never win any tournament.

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And when he tries to negotiate he'll have one more season then Subban, and playing at a higher level every year, to prove he's worth a longer term deal at bigger $$$...though I find it highly unlikely he'll get $7M per unless it's a 10 year deal (which I doubt STL would do given their market constraints).

8 years is the max, when you're signing your own player.

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Your best forward (arguably) at 5,25$ for 5 years a bad contract ??? Benn will take less than 10% of Dallas' salary cap over the next 5 seasons while Rag$ best forward will take 7,8M$ (while being somewhat better).

They have now 5 seasons to do whatever they want with Benn, trade him or extand him. And guess what, instead of watching games sitting on a couch at home, he actually plays the games.

Awesome isn't it ?

All of you guys who are bugged at the paycheck RFAs receive (should not overpay bla bla bla) are exactly like poker players that only play A-K, Q-Q, K-K and A-A. You will always end up in the money, but will never win any tournament.

no, I don't think you should pay UFA prices for RFA years. I also think it is bad planning if you are so hot on the guy to set him up to go UFA one year in. Dallas caved because they needed him. It was not a great deal for them. If they paid that and were buying a few more UFA years, it would be risky, but a good price. time will tell...

By the way.. I remember when Phaneuf was given the big contract young because he was a sure thing, top talent, number one pairing anchor...

You know what he is now.. over paid.

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Doug MacLean might have hit on the issue. PK wants to be paid like a top player on the ice, and a leader off. He isn't quite the top guy on the ice yet, but maybe the problem is they don't feel he is the leader in the room they want him to be. I wouldn't be surprised by that, given what I know about PKs time with the Bulls. If he wants big money just for his on ice work, it has to be better then 7 goals...

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