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You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr

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  • 5 weeks later...

First off, anyone care to guess on the deal now that we know the restrictions of the CBA? (35% year-to-year variance, cheapest year can't be worth less than half of the highest dollar value, 7-8 year limit - I'm not sure if there is a minimum year criterion to get an 8 year pact.)

Also, talks with Meehan regarding the contract will apparently begin on Thursday. https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/288763868258369536

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I doubt the habs would offer and 8 year deal, but here's the offer I'd make:

8 years - $48M. 4.5M, 5M, 6M, 6.5M, 6.5M, 7M, 6.5M, 6M

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I'd offer two years, $12M. That immediately makes him the highest paid defenceman on the team. He then has two years to prove he should make $1M more per season on a long term deal.

That seems like the worst of both worlds to me. You're overpaying him based on his actual performance, without locking him up long term! That can't be right.

Commandant has the right idea, I think.

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That seems like the worst of both worlds to me. You're overpaying him based on his actual performance, without locking him up long term! That can't be right.

Commandant has the right idea, I think.

Commandant isn't considering the market. It's completely dry for defencemen. Subban has likely already been given offer sheets and Montreal cannot afford to lose him. We assume that the cards are in favour of Montreal after this recent CBA negotiation but truth is, Subban knows his value. That's why he's rumoured to be going after a long term deal now.

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I have little idea what we are going to do here. My expectations are that the first out of the chute "Subbans contract" that agents and the NHLPA will want a statement made. I think Subban will be under pressure to push the limits from the forementioned.

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Commandant isn't considering the market. It's completely dry for defencemen. Subban has likely already been given offer sheets and Montreal cannot afford to lose him. We assume that the cards are in favour of Montreal after this recent CBA negotiation but truth is, Subban knows his value. That's why he's rumoured to be going after a long term deal now.

RFA Defencemen recently signed. (RFA is the key here)

Cam Fowler 4.0 million x 5 years

John Carlson 3.9667 million per season x 6 years

Kyle Quincey 3.775 million per season x 2 years

Other RFA defencemen on the market

Dmitri Kulikov

Michael Del Zotto.

Not only did I consider the market.... I gave Subban 300k per year more than John Carlson, and I didn't sign Subban for any of his UFA years, which is what Carlson and Fowler both did with Back Loaded contracts that pay them less up front and more during their UFA years.

If Subban averages 6 million per season on this deal, you better be locking him up for a significant chunk of UFA years.

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What about Karlsson? Wasn't he an RFA?

Granted he is in another class, but subban is better than the other RFA's that have signed and the only other compare able, del zotto is still unsigned. Given the difference between Montreal and the NYR's depth, subban has got a lot more leverage,

RFA Defencemen recently signed. (RFA is the key here)

Cam Fowler 4.0 million x 5 years

John Carlson 3.9667 million per season x 6 years

Kyle Quincey 3.775 million per season x 2 years

Other RFA defencemen on the market

Dmitri Kulikov

Michael Del Zotto.

Not only did I consider the market.... I gave Subban 300k per year more than John Carlson, and I didn't sign Subban for any of his UFA years, which is what Carlson and Fowler both did with Back Loaded contracts that pay them less up front and more during their UFA years.

If Subban averages 6 million per season on this deal, you better be locking him up for a significant chunk of UFA years.

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I'm going to try to cover this in more detail on the site but the little known tagging rules will play a role in Subban's contract. My prediction? It's going to be very short-term (1 year is what the Habs will probably have to push for).

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Report online that Subban will sign once the CBA is ratified for 22 million over 4 years or an AAV of 5.5 million. Count me in the camp that finds this to be an overpayment. I'm happy to sign him longer term but I would've been more comfortable somewhere in the 4.75-5 million AAV range.

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Report online that Subban will sign once the CBA is ratified for 22 million over 4 years or an AAV of 5.5 million. Count me in the camp that finds this to be an overpayment. I'm happy to sign him longer term but I would've been more comfortable somewhere in the 4.75-5 million AAV range.

I don't care if it's an overpayment. I care if he's on the roster come game time. That's it. That's all. If he under-achieves, you find another place for him. Otherwise, you stop staring at the cap and start focusing on the ice.

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Report online that Subban will sign once the CBA is ratified for 22 million over 4 years or an AAV of 5.5 million. Count me in the camp that finds this to be an overpayment. I'm happy to sign him longer term but I would've been more comfortable somewhere in the 4.75-5 million AAV range.

I'm in the camp of " I'm pretty sure that he will worth it sooner than later".

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I'm in the camp that a 4 year deal (and if that's being discussed, the tagging rules are different than what I wrote about) is the dumbest idea possible as that takes him to free agency. It also has been categorically denied by Meehan so I wouldn't read too much into it right now. Subban also said he is unaware of any contract being done.

Interestingly enough, the Habs are doing 'voluntary' medicals tomorrow with on-ice sessions beginning Sunday so if this doesn't get done today, he will be in a not-reporting situation. (Although one extra day of negotiations won't cost him a whole lot of time...)

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4 years at 5.5 doesn't make sense. If you go over 5 million you better buy some of his UFA years...

I'd be happier with 6 years at 6 million than 4 at 5.5.

Seems everyone is denying the rumor though.

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I don't like the 4-year idea either, but why is it assumed that we will lose PK to free agency? Is this just more of this delusion that 'nobody wants to play here?'

Because we will have no more leverage and someone will over pay to get him.

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