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Nov. 23, Penguins vs Habs, 7 PM


dlbalr

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It definitely depends on the return, but he won't be here next year, so don't lose him for nothing. If we can put another building block in place to bring this team a step closer to the cup year then that is what we do. The coach worries about day to day stuff, the gm worries about long term. In the short term depending on the return it may hurt but these are pros and trades happen, there will be no crying, ok maybe Gio in MT's arms again :) . He would be of benefit to a playoff run but will he be there.? Or will he be injured like the last 2 years. Small guy, great guy, but a lot of punishment at 34. If you think long term he has to go. We need to build a winner. Tough decisions must be made. Just like getting rid of Cube somehow.

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I'd rather have Murrey in for 10 minutes than Bouillon for 16 to 18 min.

I'd rather play one of the kids and let them grow.I

Its very hard to have two rookie defencemen on the same blue line (a situation we could be faced with next year)... so why not get one of the kids in there.

Sit Bouillion and Murray. Hell trade one of them and play.....

Markov - Subban

Emelin - Diaz

Gorges (steady vet presence) - one of Tinordi/Beaulieu/Pateryn

If whichever of those d starts playing badly send them back to Hamilton and call up the kid who is playing best in Hamilton. By April one of the three will be ready to go for playoff hockey.

The advantage of Gorges being able to play either RD or LD is also huge here as it allows you to break the kid in on his natural side.

ie

Tinordi - Gorges

Beaulieu - Gorges

or

Gorges - Pateryn

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Nether one has any trade value. Possibly at the trade deadline for depth.

The D kids won't be playing this year unless they fall out of the playoffs.

Next year I actually think 2 kids will be playing significant time. I would resign Markov (if possible) 2-4 year maybe 5 mill. Subban will get a contract similar to Karlson did.

My opinion do not resign Diaz, he can't hit the net, too small for a shut down guy.

I don't know enough about the farm team, however Nygren and Bealieu are both better (potential) than Diaz. This team needs more offense then Subban and Markov.

Tinordi or Pateryn would fill out my top 6.

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I'm not worried about Toronto. That team is a mirage.

They get badly, badly outplayed night after night after night..... the goaltending might be at 940 now, but how long can they keep it up.

I said earlier that Colorado was a mirage, and low and behold they are barely holding on to a playoff spot now. My bet is they fall out completely.

I think the Leafs get a 7th seed at best, and might even miss the playoffs too....

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I think the best shot we have in playing Pittsburgh or another team in the Metropolitan as a wildcard. Then, if we win that round, we stay in the Met for the next round. I don't see us going through Toronto and Boston. Maybe one, but not both.

Detroit seems a weak version this year and if Habs roster key players can stay healthy, as they are now, they can contend. I don't think the return of Yemelin and winning streak are just coincidence and seem back to playing like the team was prior to #74 going down injured last year.

Of course still a long time, an Olympics and many games till the real season begins in April, but got my rose-coloured glasses on and very encouraged by recent team play (and Hamilton also mirroring Habs recent success).

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I'm not worried about Toronto. That team is a mirage.

They get badly, badly outplayed night after night after night..... the goaltending might be at 940 now, but how long can they keep it up.

I said earlier that Colorado was a mirage, and low and behold they are barely holding on to a playoff spot now. My bet is they fall out completely.

I think the Leafs get a 7th seed at best, and might even miss the playoffs too....

I am not sure whether I agree with your remarks. Toronto is not a mirage, they aren't just good enough to win a cup but they have a decent team. I think they are currently better than us but that's ok because we are not close to our prime and they are in my view. We have a lot of room to grow, think about when Galchenyuk really develop, he will be so dominant. If you are saying Toronto might not make into the playoffs, I believe you are implying we are not either.

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I am not sure whether I agree with your remarks. Toronto is not a mirage, they aren't just good enough to win a cup but they have a decent team. I think they are currently better than us but that's ok because we are not close to our prime and they are in my view. We have a lot of room to grow, think about when Galchenyuk really develop, he will be so dominant. If you are saying Toronto might not make into the playoffs, I believe you are implying we are not either.

Toronto has only outshot their opponent in one or two games this season. They gave up 50 shots to Washington Saturday, and regularly give up 35+. Their goalies have combined to post the best save % in the league so far, but if they falter then Toronto will as well. Even if they are merely good instead of excellent you'll see Toronto losing a lot more.

I definitely wouldn't say they are better than us, although they've matched up well this season and the last.

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Toronto has only outshot their opponent in one or two games this season. They gave up 50 shots to Washington Saturday, and regularly give up 35+. Their goalies have combined to post the best save % in the league so far, but if they falter then Toronto will as well. Even if they are merely good instead of excellent you'll see Toronto losing a lot more.

I definitely wouldn't say they are better than us, although they've matched up well this season and the last.

I don't really watch Leafs games, but according to the highlights on TV, they look like a team that can score 3+ goals night in night out. And that will bring you a lot of W.

Are they giving up 35+ dangerous shots per game ? I wouldn't mind giving up 100+ shots per game if most of them were allowed on 1 on 2 situations or from outside of the slot.

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Toronto is 29th in the NHL... 29th.... in puck possession.

The level of goaltending they are getting, while at the same time every other team is getting save percentages in the 890s combined against the leafs. Simply can not continue over 82 games.

Eventually it will catch up to them.

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I don't really watch Leafs games, but according to the highlights on TV, they look like a team that can score 3+ goals night in night out. And that will bring you a lot of W.

Are they giving up 35+ dangerous shots per game ? I wouldn't mind giving up 100+ shots per game if most of them were allowed on 1 on 2 situations or from outside of the slot.

They're not that big of an offensive powerhouse - they've scored two more goals than the Habs (albeit with a game in hand).

They give up an average of 10 more shots than they produce. That'll catch up with you. Commandant also brings up the opposing goalie's save % - it shows that they've also been lucky so far.

If you give up 100 shots of poor quality, chances are a few will go in - on tips, rebounds, goal-mouth scrums, goalie errors.

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The stats about Toronto are skewed. The gameplan of Randy Carlye is to give up the perimeter, which is why they allow so many shots, and also to pick their shots wisely, which is why their fancy stats make them look like the Florida Panthers instead of a respectable also ran. Judging by the fact that they won more playoff games than us last year, and have a better record than us, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is also inflating their save percentage. The Maple Leafs have been a success for almost a full season, that's enough time for them to go through the regression the stats heads say are coming. They are a 6-8th place team, same boat as us.

Let us not forget, nothing, and I mean nothing, is more important than a shooting attempt! Btw, how is "possession" quantifed as shots for/shots against? Soccer and basketball are the other sports that keep possession stats, and shots have nothing to do with the equation.

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Possession is quantified exactly as shots for and against.

The two biggest measures of possession are Corsi and Fenwick

Corsi is shots on goal + shots wide + shots blocked

Fenwick is shots on goal + Shots wide

The Leafs are near the bottom in both.

As for teams sitting at the top of the league, while at the bottom of these stats, there is another example... the 55 games or so of the 2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs. Remember the team that Bryan Burke said was like a "12 wheeler going straight off a cliff?" Yeah that team showed regression to the mean despite a long run of success before. As did the previously first overall 2011-12 Minnesota Wild (first overall in December).

The Colorado Avalanche from this season are another example.

For the Leafs, mark my words.... just a matter of time.

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Possession is quantified exactly as shots for and against.

The two biggest measures of possession are Corsi and Fenwick

Corsi is shots on goal + shots wide + shots blocked

Fenwick is shots on goal + Shots wide

The Leafs are near the bottom in both.

As for teams sitting at the top of the league, while at the bottom of these stats, there is another example... the 55 games or so of the 2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs. Remember the team that Bryan Burke said was like a "12 wheeler going straight off a cliff?" Yeah that team showed regression to the mean despite a long run of success before. As did the previously first overall 2011-12 Minnesota Wild (first overall in December).

The Colorado Avalanche from this season are another example.

For the Leafs, mark my words.... just a matter of time.

What do you mean ? Where do you project them in the Eastern Conference standings after 82 games ?

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What do you mean ? Where do you project them in the Eastern Conference standings after 82 games ?

At best a wild card team who loses in the first round of the playoffs..... at best.

Maybe not even in the playoffs.

Certainly not a team we should be making comments about like "I can't see us beating Toronto and Boston, maybe 1 but not both"

They are a whole 1 point ahead of us right now, even with this lucky stretch where their goalies have an insane save percentage and other teams goalies are in the 890s

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The stats about Toronto are skewed. The gameplan of Randy Carlye is to give up the perimeter, which is why they allow so many shots, and also to pick their shots wisely, which is why their fancy stats make them look like the Florida Panthers instead of a respectable also ran. Judging by the fact that they won more playoff games than us last year, and have a better record than us, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is also inflating their save percentage. The Maple Leafs have been a success for almost a full season, that's enough time for them to go through the regression the stats heads say are coming. They are a 6-8th place team, same boat as us.

Let us not forget, nothing, and I mean nothing, is more important than a shooting attempt! Btw, how is "possession" quantifed as shots for/shots against? Soccer and basketball are the other sports that keep possession stats, and shots have nothing to do with the equation.

It's EXTREMELY generous of you to chalk up the Leafs getting outshot by an average of 10 shots a night to Carlyle's gameplan. "Sure, the puck will be in our end the whole night, but we'll win the game". It just can't last that much longer - the main reason it's gone this far is their stellar goaltending. Look for the Leafs to have a much tougher December.

I agree that quantifying possession as shots for and against is a little problematic - I see it as a new way of looking at the game, and there's plenty of statistical evidence backing up its correlation with winning. Advanced stats are still pretty young in hockey, I think they still have a ways to go and we'll see them improve and become more mainstream in the next 5 years.

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The stats about Toronto are skewed. The gameplan of Randy Carlye is to give up the perimeter, which is why they allow so many shots, and also to pick their shots wisely, which is why their fancy stats make them look like the Florida Panthers instead of a respectable also ran. Judging by the fact that they won more playoff games than us last year, and have a better record than us, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

This is also inflating their save percentage. The Maple Leafs have been a success for almost a full season, that's enough time for them to go through the regression the stats heads say are coming. They are a 6-8th place team, same boat as us.

Let us not forget, nothing, and I mean nothing, is more important than a shooting attempt! Btw, how is "possession" quantifed as shots for/shots against? Soccer and basketball are the other sports that keep possession stats, and shots have nothing to do with the equation.

Should also point out this was what the Habs did in the playoffs 2010 playoffs and everyone then was pointing out "they weren't great shots getting through, so the shots against stat is flawed."

But when the Leafs do it it's suddenly terrible, unsustainable hockey. I haven't seen anything in the advanced stats numbers that says they value a shot from the red line differently to a shot from the slot, or a rebound, or a 2 on one.

And I think we've all seen enough Habs games in 10 years to know that shots from the perimeter won't win you a Stanley Cup.

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Isn't Price/Budaj doing better than Bernier/Reimer on individual stats? I recall reading or hearing somewhere that only Boston has us beat on team save percentage and that's due to over working Rask.

Thats still only one end of the spectrum... and montreal is about even in both Corsi and Fenwick.

The Leafs are both getting amazing goaltending, and getting other teams to play awful.

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Should also point out this was what the Habs did in the playoffs 2010 playoffs and everyone then was pointing out "they weren't great shots getting through, so the shots against stat is flawed."

But when the Leafs do it it's suddenly terrible, unsustainable hockey. I haven't seen anything in the advanced stats numbers that says they value a shot from the red line differently to a shot from the slot, or a rebound, or a 2 on one.

And I think we've all seen enough Habs games in 10 years to know that shots from the perimeter won't win you a Stanley Cup.

It was unsustainable in 2010 too. Philly series showed that.

I think part of us all knew that the 2010 team was both playing well and getting their fair share of luck along the way.

We don't win if Washington and Pittsburgh got anything resembling reliable goaltending... not great, just reliable. Fleury in particular gave up some stinkiers, including a memorable one to Tom pyatt in game 5 and his whole game 7 performance.

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I don't have anything against advanced stats, the more quality analysis the better. The amount that people are buying into them is outrageous, especially EOTP. For example, Philly outshot FLA in the game I went to tonight, so their possession stats were better, and Tim Thomas had a better PDO or whatever, so according to fancy stats Florida was lucky to win, even though Philly couldn't make a pass out of their own zone and were a trash fire. That's why advanced stats are supplementary information to me instead of the main dish.

Advanced stats are too new to have any idea what we have in them. I don't see this big regression coming with the Leafs, looking at their roster shows they're a quality 6-8th place team, not a 29th place team. As far as us versus them, they would smoke us like they smoked the Senators ten years ago, it's just that bad of a matchup.

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I don't have anything against advanced stats, the more quality analysis the better. Advanced stats are too new to have any idea what we have in them. I don't see this big regression coming with the Leafs, looking at their roster shows they're a quality 6-8th place team, not a 29th place team. As far as us versus them, they would smoke us like they smoked the Senators ten years ago, it's just that bad of a matchup.

no they won't!!!!

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I don't have anything against advanced stats, the more quality analysis the better. The amount that people are buying into them is outrageous, especially EOTP. For example, Philly outshot FLA in the game I went to tonight, so their possession stats were better, and Tim Thomas had a better PDO or whatever, so according to fancy stats Florida was lucky to win, even though Philly couldn't make a pass out of their own zone and were a trash fire. That's why advanced stats are supplementary information to me instead of the main dish.

Advanced stats are too new to have any idea what we have in them. I don't see this big regression coming with the Leafs, looking at their roster shows they're a quality 6-8th place team, not a 29th place team. As far as us versus them, they would smoke us like they smoked the Senators ten years ago, it's just that bad of a matchup.

Why is it that bad a matchup?

In any regular season game it is always a toss up between Leafs & Habs.

But in a series with these 2 rosters, Habs seem to have better team wouldn't you say?

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Why is it that bad a matchup?

In any regular season game it is always a toss up between Leafs & Habs.

But in a series with these 2 rosters, Habs seem to have better team wouldn't you say?

They are moar big so surely that means they are better playoff performers.

Of course this ignores how Briere and Gionta are small and have spent their careers as playoff studs, and the 2nd smallest team in the NHL won the cup last year, but yeah .... Big always wins in the playoffs.

The Leafs defence is a tire fire.... seriously Phaneuf is a poor #1 (he'd be a great #3).... Franson is good in his role... but the other 4 are all over their heads.

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