Signing Habs sign Jack Nevins

[dlbalr]

It's minor news but hey, a signing is a signing. The Habs have signed QMJHL tough guy Jack Nevins to an entry level contract. From what I understand, since he was 20 when the season began, he'll burn the first year of his ELC this year even though he's in junior.

http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3266

[Neech]

I could be wrong about this, but this signing, along with using a 3rd round pick on Connor Crisp, look like they distinctly come from the Bergevin-Dudley side of things, rather than Timmins. It's too early to know how these sorts of pick-ups will pan out, but they certainly seem like a departure from our previous scouting.

One thing that I wonder about Bergevin-Dudley is how well they are on top of the new wave of advanced stats and metrics in the game. I certainly wouldn't want them to swear by stats like certain hockey writers out there, but they're important to understand and utilize. I'm worried that our current regime might be a bit old school and behind the curve, and it could hurt us going forward.

[dlbalr]

I think they're trying to find a home-grown 4th line gritty guy/fighter, their version of an 8 minute a game guy that can fight but also play a bit. Stefan Fournier is potentially another of those players. Personally, I don't mind them trying to find one this way...I just wish they didn't use a 3rd round pick to try to find one as well.

[DON]

I think they're trying to find a home-grown 4th line gritty guy/fighter, their version of an 8 minute a game guy that can fight but also play a bit. Stefan Fournier is potentially another of those players. Personally, I don't mind them trying to find one this way...I just wish they didn't use a 3rd round pick to try to find one as well.

And a 1st round pick.

[dlbalr]

And a 1st round pick.

I don't want to lump McCarron in there yet. There are thoughts and hopes that he can be more than a 4th liner (perhaps just a 3rd but that's better than a 4th), guys like Crisp, Fournier, and now Nevins are 4th line or bust types.

[Trizzak]

I don't want to lump McCarron in there yet. There are thoughts and hopes that he can be more than a 4th liner (perhaps just a 3rd but that's better than a 4th), guys like Crisp, Fournier, and now Nevins are 4th line or bust types.

For anyone who has already thrown McCarron under the bus as a 1st round bust, please remember that Tinordi's first year in London wasn't particularly strong either.

[habs rule]

It's minor news but hey, a signing is a signing. The Habs have signed QMJHL tough guy Jack Nevins to an entry level contract. From what I understand, since he was 20 when the season began, he'll burn the first year of his ELC this year even though he's in junior.

http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=3266

but they don't pay him do they?

[Machine of Loving Grace]

For anyone who has already thrown McCarron under the bus as a 1st round bust, please remember that Tinordi's first year in London wasn't particularly strong either.

Folks put so much value in the order of picks. Where we selected McCarron, de la Rose and Fucale is completely interchangeable.

[DON]

For anyone who has already thrown McCarron under the bus as a 1st round bust, please remember that Tinordi's first year in London wasn't particularly strong either.

I know, but drafting by size alone, is common error, in that big typically overrated and gets GMs/Owners drooling, average size or smallish underrated.

I would of been fine with McCarron as 3rd pick and Crisp in 4th, 5th or 6th round and I keep seeing skilled kids they passed over and think Timmins would of taken, but management is on the physical/larger kick (Nevins-Prust-Parros-Murray-McCarron-Crisp), simply to shake the "smufiness" label and gain respect I guess?

[Guest Stogey24]

I know, but drafting by size alone, is common error, in that big typically overrated and gets GMs/Owners drooling, average size or smallish underrated.

I would of been fine with McCarron as 3rd pick and Crisp in 4th, 5th or 6th round and I keep seeing skilled kids they passed over and think Timmins would of taken, but management is on the physical/larger kick (Nevins-Prust-Parros-Murray-McCarron-Crisp), simply to shake the "smufiness" label and gain respect I guess?

London is the best place for Mccarron. He's surrounded by talented players and great coaches. I've watched quite a few Knights games and he does need some work, but he's an absolute monster out there.

[DON]

London is the best place for Mccarron. He's surrounded by talented players and great coaches. I've watched quite a few Knights games and he does need some work, but he's an absolute monster out there.

Great to hear and like I said before, I was impressed with his play in pre-season with Habs.

[dlbalr]

but they don't pay him do they?

Just whatever his signing bonus is. I don't have the contract info yet so I don't know how much that will be.

[Commandant]

For anyone who has already thrown McCarron under the bus as a 1st round bust, please remember that Tinordi's first year in London wasn't particularly strong either.

Its not just his first 25 games... its that this guy didn't score with the NTDP either... at least Tinordi could say he was an outstanding defenceman on that team. McCarron doesn't have that.

And McCarron's struggles are much, much, much worse than anything Tinordi went through.

[Guest Stogey24]

Its not just his first 25 games... its that this guy didn't score with the NTDP either... at least Tinordi could say he was an outstanding defenceman on that team. McCarron doesn't have that.

And McCarron's struggles are much, much, much worse than anything Tinordi went through.

His stuggles are much worse? He's played 25 games in the O and he's 18 years old. Gimme a break!

[dlbalr]

Here's what I have for contract info:

13-14: S/B 70,000, AHL salary $67,500, NHL salary $620,000

14-15: S/B 70,000, AHL salary $67,500, NHL salary $645,000

15-16: S/B 70,000, AHL salary $67,500, NHL salary $670,000

Because the bonus is $70,000, the cap hit is at least 10 x that high ($700,000), not the $645,000 that Renaud Lavoie reported last night. Bonus info won't be available for a while though so for now, the contract page will have $700,000 as his cap hit.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

His stuggles are much worse? He's played 25 games in the O and he's 18 years old. Gimme a break!

Commandant is very loyal to his predictions. He'll be looking cup half-empty with McCarron until he proves him wrong.

[Commandant]

Commandant is very loyal to his predictions. He'll be looking cup half-empty with McCarron until he proves him wrong.

We also have a new writer on the site and he looked at kids who played in junior hockey (CHL). The article should be coming out soon.

I've seen his results though.

There is a little more to it than this, but the basic conclusion is that if we look at every former CHLer since 1996 who scored 30 goals or 60 points on an NHL team (in one season) we find something very interesting.

- with the exception of three players (Milan Lucic, James Neal, Jeff Carter) they all scored at least 1.2 PPG in the season after they were drafted.

- Thats well over 200 guys who have scored at that level.

- Carter he was at 1.18 PPG, so very nearly at the mark, and on a bad team...

- Neal and Lucic were at around .75 PPG.

- McCarron is at less than 0.4 PPG right now......

That should scare you that this guy just doesn't have top line upside..... add to it his lack of scoring for what is now 2.5 years in high level junior hockey (USNTDP and OHL) and its damn scary.

Add in the fact that other than a guy like John Scott, for forwards who make the NHL even as third and fourth line guys... 99% are scoring at a greater pace than McCarron. The Mike Blundens and Ryan Whites and Max Lapierres of the world, they scored in junior.

Even with my prediction on McCarron that he was a third line guy, you have to recognize that right now HE IS UNDERACHIEVING THAT PREDICTION. HE DOESN'T EVEN LOOK LIKE A FUTURE NHLer RIGHT NOW.

Tinordi never reached the low that McCarron is at right now... less than 6 months after being drafted his numbers are sooooo bad, and he's shown so little in junior hockey, that you have to be worried about him even making the NHL.

Now the Hunters give us some nice quotes about how he is progressing, and how he's getting so much better all the time. But if thats the case, Why does he keep getting less and less icetime in London? They may be saying good things about him, but they are drastically cutting his ice time. They never did that to Tinordi.

=================

Oh and here's another player, who actually did better than McCarron in Junior. Another first round pick, and a guy who Marlies Coach Steve Spott came out and said "he's not gonna be a scorer in pro hockey, we want him to learn to play on the third and fourth lines"

Here he is, McCarron version 1.0. Drafted by the Leafs.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=121437

__________________________

And to top it all off, at a tougher level of hockey, and in less games.... JT Compher has more points, and is over a PPG for the University of Michigan which is exceptional for any freshman in the NCAA.

[Guest Stogey24]

We needed size in the Draft and Mccarron had it. He's 6'5 and 18 years old. The kid wasn't drafter to lead his team in goals or be a point per game player, especially in his first year. He will start scoring goals when he is consistently driving the net. Sometimes it looks like he doesn't know he's huge. He strays away from the net a bit, which should be his bread and butter. We need this type of player in our organization.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

They never did it to Tinordi because Tinordi was farther in development. Not every player is the same. Not every player develops the same.

The moment McCarron was drafted, everyone said he was going to be a long term project. I don't see him wearing a Habs sweater until he's around 22, 23. He ain't gonna be a Chris Krieder getting pushed early (too early actually). He's going to be a work in progress.

I tend to look back at how McCarron played for Team USA last year as to his closer potential. Growing pains are natural, every player is allowed to have them. He isn't doing well because he doesn't understand his role in the OHL yet. He was so pumped to be a power forward that he forgot about how much work he had to do. Now he's looking like a goon because that's what all power forwards who don't score look like. McCarron still has a lot of skill, especially when it comes to board play and possession. He'll spend another year in London then come to Hamilton. I don't expect him to be top six in his first year of Hamilton either.

It's kind of annoying how a player can be drafted, be labeled a long term project and people are ready to give up when he's in his first year of the OHL. Which you are. Which is why your post was first just about JT Compher (which was my point on how you're glass half empty on a prospect you didn't like) and then you expanded it to a criticism of his current numbers. You're trying to bury the pick.

[Commandant]

We needed size in the Draft and Mccarron had it. He's 6'5 and 18 years old. The kid wasn't drafter to lead his team in goals or be a point per game player, especially in his first year. He will start scoring goals when he is consistently driving the net. Sometimes it looks like he doesn't know he's huge. He strays away from the net a bit, which should be his bread and butter. We need this type of player in our organization.

If McCarron was actually "this type of player" I'd agree.

But he's not... he doesn't have the skill, he doesn't have the hockey sense, or the soft hands.

You are focused on the "idea of McCarron and what he is" rather than the reality that he doesn't have those skills.

This is the biggest failure of GMs when they focus to much on the idea of the player rather than the reality of the player.

[Commandant]

They never did it to Tinordi because Tinordi was farther in development. Not every player is the same. Not every player develops the same.

The moment McCarron was drafted, everyone said he was going to be a long term project. I don't see him wearing a Habs sweater until he's around 22, 23. He ain't gonna be a Chris Krieder getting pushed early (too early actually). He's going to be a work in progress.

I tend to look back at how McCarron played for Team USA last year as to his closer potential. Growing pains are natural, every player is allowed to have them. He isn't doing well because he doesn't understand his role in the OHL yet. He was so pumped to be a power forward that he forgot about how much work he had to do. Now he's looking like a goon because that's what all power forwards who don't score look like. McCarron still has a lot of skill, especially when it comes to board play and possession. He'll spend another year in London then come to Hamilton. I don't expect him to be top six in his first year of Hamilton either.

It's kind of annoying how a player can be drafted, be labeled a long term project and people are ready to give up when he's in his first year of the OHL. Which you are. Which is why your post was first just about JT Compher (which was my point on how you're glass half empty on a prospect you didn't like) and then you expanded it to a criticism of his current numbers. You're trying to bury the pick.

How did McCarron look with Team USA? He's never been a scorer or a power forward... not in his two years with the NTDP and not today.

If this was a 20 game aberration I'd worry it was a slump. But its not an aberration its a continuation of two years of play. If anything, the two good games against Russia and Canada in the U18 look like the Aberration, and the other 150 or so games over the last 2 and a half year look like the reality of what he is.

And yes, he's a long term project. But even long term projects are scoring in the year post draft. Its less than 1% of guys who are NHL scorers who scored below 1PPG, and those 2 players.... they still scored nearly double what McCarron did.

The chances of him becoming a legit top 6 guy are very low.

[Guest Stogey24]

I guess time will tell...

[DON]

I think McCarron would of been a fine mid-late 2nd round pick, but still a bottom six player, long shot to be a 2nd liner. But I am not quite as down on his stock as Commandant is.

[Chris]

It doesn't matter the order. The were picking at the bottom of the first round and beginning of the 2nd. If McCarron turns out to be a 3rd liner who hits, plays physical drops them sometimes and get reach 40 points i'll be happy.

Fucale and De La Rose were both rated in the first round and the habs got them as well.

I actually think they did really well with those 3 picks.

As you both say, time will tell.

[Commandant]

I have no problem with De la Rose (who has some potential offensive upside IMO) and Fucale.

I just personally wouldn't have taken McCarron anywhere before 60th overall.

I'm a firm believer that you don't take a guy with 3rd line upside early in a draft. Those guys become free agents, the first liners don't as often, and when a first liner does the bidding war is huge.

So gamble. Take a guy who is maybe riskier, but has that high end upside.... Sometimes you get a bust, but sometimes you get a Subban or a Corey Perry, or other such player at the bottom of round 1, early in round 2.

Yeah most guys won't turn out like that... .but its the only way to get one, cause once you draft them, they rarely if ever hit the open market.