First Round Matchup

[ICEWATER77]

That's a tough row to hoe, for sure. The Sens D doesn't get nearly enough credit for the Hamburglar's success. We gotta get inside and score the ugly ones..like Gallagher

[Lovett's Magnatones]

I'm not worried about the Sens.

In 2012-2013, three things happened that are unlikely to be repeated:

1. Lars Eller, on his usual tear, was knocked out for the series in the first game. Therrien and the Habs subsequently lose their minds and try to turn the series into a grudge match victory against a team that's bigger and tougher. They lost one game by a blow out and got all their asses beat in the fights.

2. King Karey laid and egg that resulted in the Habs goaltending coach being fired in the summer. He sucked and couldn't stop a beach ball.

3. Craig Anderson posted a .960 sv%

Paul MacLean was riding his Jack Adams season, and there were a lot of signs at that point the Senators were better than they appeared.

The Sens defense was up there at 102 GA inbetween the Blackhawks and Bruins. Second in the league! The Habs were twelfth in the league, and had rookies making their first appearance in the playoffs.

The Habs were second in the league in offense. A GOOD DEFENSE BEATS A GOOD OFFENSE EVERY TIME.

As much as people don't want to admit it around here, or especially EOTP, the Habs were playing a run and gun style that spells certain doom in the postseason. (Just ask Tampa in two weeks!) The Habs reverted to a trap/dump and chase grinding style and the rest is history.

[Habs30/31]

probably the most likely scenario of them all... philly winning a matinee at home and crashing the party is very plausible. boston's effort level will not be matched by TB if the early scoreboard in philly is positive.

i also wouldn't at all be surprised if bettman's boys in stripes play an active roll in seeing more American content in the playoffs especially if it to help pitts and his and jacobs beloved bruins!

Good insight. Could very well BE how it plays out.

[Habs30/31]

If the habs do get the sens they match up well. Sens D is underrated as pointed out. No coincidence that when Methot came back and paired with Karlsson the Swedes game improved dramatically. Subban had his best scoring season ever, and still could not match Karlssons twenty plus goals. Watching some of these play off type games the sens have been in for over a month, they are every bit as fast or faster than the Habs. They sure play more physical than we do. But as good as their goaltending has been they cant match Price. Sens also lack a finisher like Pacs. It would be a long series.

[Chris]

They will be toast if they play the Sens. Sens own them.

Pittsburgh, Detroit or Boston are better options.

Especially if Pacioretty doesn't play.

I would sit out Price tonight, he has the record, a loss is probably a good thing

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I'm not worried about the Sens.

In 2012-2013, three things happened that are unlikely to be repeated:

1. Lars Eller, on his usual tear, was knocked out for the series in the first game. Therrien and the Habs subsequently lose their minds and try to turn the series into a grudge match victory against a team that's bigger and tougher. They lost one game by a blow out and got all their asses beat in the fights.

2. King Karey laid and egg that resulted in the Habs goaltending coach being fired in the summer. He sucked and couldn't stop a beach ball.

3. Craig Anderson posted a .960 sv%

Paul MacLean was riding his Jack Adams season, and there were a lot of signs at that point the Senators were better than they appeared.

The Sens defense was up there at 102 GA inbetween the Blackhawks and Bruins. Second in the league! The Habs were twelfth in the league, and had rookies making their first appearance in the playoffs.

The Habs were second in the league in offense. A GOOD DEFENSE BEATS A GOOD OFFENSE EVERY TIME.

As much as people don't want to admit it around here, or especially EOTP, the Habs were playing a run and gun style that spells certain doom in the postseason. (Just ask Tampa in two weeks!) The Habs reverted to a trap/dump and chase grinding style and the rest is history.

Nice, thoughtful post. Looking back, it does seem clear that the 2013 Habs were a classic example of a hotshot young team that was not fundamentally sound in the way you need to be if you want to win in the playoffs. And I agree that two years later, we are significantly stronger.

That said, you're completely overlooking the intangibles that I mentioned earlier in this thread. Quite apart from the Sens' merits and demerits as a squad, Ottawa is the hottest team in the league, with the kind of lightning-in-a-bottle hysterical momentum that can really make a difference in a seven-game series. And they have Steve Penny circa 1984 playing out of his mind. Finally, there is the fact that we are 1-3 against them this season and the overall sense that they tend to win against us irrespective of whatever talent differential may exist between the teams. In short, the intangibles are 100% on Ottawa's side. So I still don't like it one bit.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

They will be toast if they play the Sens. Sens own them.

Pittsburgh, Detroit or Boston are better options.

Especially if Pacioretty doesn't play.

I would sit out Price tonight, he has the record, a loss is probably a good thing

You can't pretend the team is a contender, or even good for that matter, if you're afraid of a hot bubble team with a miracle AHL goalie.

My guess is that you don't think the Habs are contenders-and we can file this post under the "General Pessimism" file.

Have a little faith!

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Nice, thoughtful post. Looking back, it does seem clear that the 2013 Habs were a classic example of a hotshot young team that was not fundamentally sound in the way you need to be if you want to win in the playoffs. And I agree that two years later, we are significantly stronger.

That said, you're completely overlooking the intangibles that I mentioned earlier in this thread. Quite apart from the Sens' merits and demerits as a squad, Ottawa is the hottest team in the league, with the kind of lightning-in-a-bottle hysterical momentum that can really make a difference in a seven-game series. And they have Steve Penny circa 1984 playing out of his mind. Finally, there is the fact that we are 1-3 against them this season and the overall sense that they tend to win against us irrespective of whatever talent differential may exist between the teams. In short, the intangibles are 100% on Ottawa's side. So I still don't like it one bit.

This sounds like the Bruins/Habs in 2011, I heard a lot of this talk.

Let's see how the Gashouse Gang and their Rover Swede Hairdryer boy and rookies cope with Carey Price, Ginette Reno, PK and the Bell Centre.

Habs in 4.

[dlbalr]

As promised the other day, here's the last of the Playoff Primer series, looking at Pittsburgh: http://www.habsworld.net/2015/04/playoff-primer-how-do-the-habs-match-up-with-pittsburgh/

Also, once we know the actual matchup, we should probably give it its own series discussion thread.

[Chris]

24-4-4 down the stretch. I wouldn't call that flukie.

The habs just don't match up well s the Sens. That's just my opinion.

[Habs30/31]

You can't pretend the team is a contender, or even good for that matter, if you're afraid of a hot bubble team with a miracle AHL goalie.

My guess is that you don't think the Habs are contenders-and we can file this post under the "General Pessimism" file.

Have a little faith!

They have a shot...about a nine to one shot. Hey 86 and 93 when Gretz and the Oil, Mario and The Pens were upset. Habs were there with the goaltender to do it.

Still say nobody in the east is beating the Rangers. Their entire D is dynamite. Forwards are fast and physical. Some our outright huge. Two great goalies. Great coaching. Won east last year, and rebounded with finishing first over all.

This sounds like the Bruins/Habs in 2011, I heard a lot of this talk.

Let's see how the Gashouse Gang and their Rover Swede Hairdryer boy and rookies cope with Carey Price, Ginette Reno, PK and the Bell Centre.

Habs in 4.

Rover swede Hairdryer boy.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

24-4-4 down the stretch. I wouldn't call that flukie.

The habs just don't match up well s the Sens. That's just my opinion.

That's fair enough.

I think it depends on the first two games, if the Habs win the first and the second game is a dog fight either way, it'll be short series. If they have trouble scoring or lose the first game 4-1/3-0/2-0, they're in some trouble.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I say Sens in 6. If that's the matchup.

[Habs30/31]

24-4-4 down the stretch. I wouldn't call that flukie.

The habs just don't match up well s the Sens. That's just my opinion.

24-4-4. thats is better than I thought. 4 regulation losses in final 32 games?

[Guest Stogey24]

I say Sens in 6. If that's the matchup.

Lots of faith, good to see bud

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Lots of faith, good to see bud

Hey, I said a few weeks ago that we have two Kryptonites in the Conference - TB and Ottawa. And I expressed relief that Ottawa was out of the playoff hunt. Unfortunately the latter sentiment was misplaced. I like our team, but think this is a stinko matchup for us. I hope I'm wrong, but I calls 'em like I sees 'em.

[ICEWATER77]

Somehow, someway, let it be Detroit. I highly doubt we lose to Tor tonight however, so that's ruled out. Today's Ott/Philly game is the swing vote if you ask me. I'm assuming Det will beat Car and Pit will beat Buf..so, who knows, I sure don't!

[DON]

(I just hope Sens get in )

Be nice too see 5 Canadian city's get some playoff action. And I don't 'fear' the Sens anymore than do the WIngs/Bruins/PItt.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

As promised the other day, here's the last of the Playoff Primer series, looking at Pittsburgh: http://www.habsworld.net/2015/04/playoff-primer-how-do-the-habs-match-up-with-pittsburgh/

Also, once we know the actual matchup, we should probably give it its own series discussion thread.

Why so down on Habs/Pitt?

More serious question-they've been playing with five d men a lot because of the salary cap, that doesn't carry over to the playoffs, does it? And why won't they just take the penalty if it means missing the playoffs?

Also, do you think Mike Johnston is wearing a toupee? I do.

[habs rule]

I don't want to face the Sens but if that is what it is then we kick their asses and move on to round 2. This team has a lot of heart. They got Le Genius and his magical blender, set on go fast. They have Carey Price, damn I just wish he could score goals. They have Subang, Patches, Gally x 2, Mr Eller will show up in the playoffs, Markov still has a good playoff in him. And the new guys are going to suprise us with some secondary scoring. No way the Sens win anything.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Yeah, I think this write-up is too pessimistic re: Habs' chances v.s. Pittsburgh. The Pens are a meltdown squad with mediocre coaching and a goalie that has a history of stinking out the joint when the chips are down, especially against ye Habs.

For what it's worth, here's my sense of the Habs' playoff chances in the Conference.

Teams with a good chance to beat us:

TB (stronger team on paper + dominated us all season)

Ottawa (weaker team on paper, but ridiculous intangibles, especially against us)

50/50

Rags (I may be under-estimating them, but just have a gut feel that we're their equal)

Teams against whom we win

Everyone else

[ICEWATER77]

I'm just glad that dink Chris Neil is out

[Machine of Loving Grace]

If Pittsburgh: Habs in four

If Ottawa: Habs in five

If we look at our season series with Ottawa:

Game 1: Habs beat Ottawa 4-1 at the end of a home swing playing some of the toughest competition in the Western conference. Good game for the Habs.

Game 2: Sens beat Habs 4-1. Habs just finished a back to back and Tokarski was in net. Lots of reasons for the loss.

Game 3: Sens beat Habs 4-2. Hammond was insane with 42 stops. Tokarski played for the Habs and did well stopping 35. This is the game we lost Emelin.

Game 4: Sens beat Habs 5-2. Habs let a lead go by them. Bad game for the Habs. It's also the only game which Price lost to the Sens in.

Sens won the series 3-1, full credit to them. However, there's context and reason to it all. The only unforgivable game is the last one and probably the one burned in most minds. But two of their wins were against Tokarski. Against Price it's a 1-1 series. Hammond is right now magical and it's tough to stop him when the team is rallying around him but I'm not gonna put a magical pony over year long consistency. Healthy Price? Series win.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

I just knew it was Tokarski...that's all I had to hear to inflate my already high hopes.

Ottawa bottom two pairings:

Wiercoch-Ceci

Borowiecki-Gryba

Ouch. Do any of those guys make our top-6? Wiercoch, Boro, Gryba don't. Ceci looks good, but I haven't seen much of him.

[Habs30/31]

I just knew it was Tokarski...that's all I had to hear to inflate my already high hopes.

Ottawa bottom two pairings:

Wiercoch-Ceci

Borowiecki-Gryba

Ouch. Do any of those guys make our top-6? Wiercoch, Boro, Gryba don't. Ceci looks good, but I haven't seen much of him.

I have not seen much of any of them. But unless its just the new goalie I imagine their D is not problematic.