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Distraction Thread - How much will Carey cost us after 17-18?


zumpano21

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Bourque went from being a problem, sometimes our worst player on the ice, to being a force, sometimes our best player on the ice, this for stretches of games or even whole series. Didn't watch him in Calgary and I don't take too much stock of AHL numbers (as I thought you didn't). All I remember is the huge discrepancy between a regular season minus and a big playoff plus.

What about Briere, just a statistical anomaly? Big difference in between his playoff PPG and regular season during his time in Philly.

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Claude Lemieux was a very good player

He was very good in the regular season, and very good in the playoffs.

The problem with the Claude Lemieux playoff myth is that it makes it sound like he was some third line scrub in regular seasons, and first liner in the playoffs. Which is not true.

He was the same scorer in the regular season as he was in the playoffs.

The PPG difference is .025

The number of seasons he had a better PPG in the playoffs vs regular season... is exactly equal to the number of seasons he had a better regular season than playoffs in his career.

He didn't step up in the playoffs. He played the exact same as he did in the regular season. And overall should just be remembered as pretty darn good.

conn smythe...

junior mvp playoffs

4 time stanley cup winner with 3 different teams

top 10 all time goals scorer in the playoffs...

agreed his point totals are on par with his regular season but he always, always played well in the playoffs.... however, when he was in fact hot his freakin team WON the Stanley Cup... he was hot 4 times in the playoffs... 4 stanley cups... like i said thats a playoff performer!! can we expect a player to be hot every year?? should we expect them to play like claude did every playoff round... yup

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People have done stats on this, Briere is actually just inside the line of expected PPG in playoffs (allowing for small variation based on sample size)

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/3/clutch-nhl-playoff-big-game-performers

Most players fall in the lines, with guys like Pisani, Druce, and some others as big outliers (likely due to sample size issues as stated before).

The one that stands out is Johan Franzen.

but even then, just one player standing out doesn't do an awful lot for proving the clutch argument.

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conn smythe...

junior mvp playoffs

4 time stanley cup winner with 3 different teams

top 10 all time goals scorer in the playoffs...

agreed his point totals are on par with his regular season but he always, always played well in the playoffs.... however, when he was in fact hot his freakin team WON the Stanley Cup... he was hot 4 times in the playoffs... 4 stanley cups... like i said thats a playoff performer!! can we expect a player to be hot every year?? should we expect them to play like claude did every playoff round... yup

He was a very good player, who found himself on some very good teams in the 86 Habs, the 95 Devils 96 Avs and 00 Devils.

Nothing strange about that at all.

On two of those teams.... the 96 Avs, and 00 Devils... he actually scored more (PPG) in the regular season than he did on the playoff runs.

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Okay, so between Thornton and Briere, we can say which one is more clutch? They both fit into the statistical model, but on opposite ends.

In any model you expect a few outliers, i'm not sure if this is "clutch" or if its randomness.

We know thornton had a playoff series in 2004 when he scored 0 points in 7 games against the Habs. He was also playing with a fractured sternum.. thats skewing his stats. Does that mean he isn't clutch, or does that mean he played a playoff series in a condition he'd never play regular season games, skewing the numbers.

Briere is still inside the line (and this study was done in 2012). If we include future years he starts falling more to the middle. Is that clutch or is it just random statistical noise.

Everything about the data suggests random statistical noise.

What is clutch? Its the ability to perform under pressure. And yes, that is something that varies in human beings. I bet we see plenty of clutch in beer leagues around the country. But this is the NHL. The elite of the elite have made this league, and its even more elite to be a scorer in this league. These players have faced pressure along the way and succeeded, cause if they had the talent, but folded everytime there was pressure to make a team, or pressure to impress a scout, or pressure in the junior playoffs, or whatever, they would have wilted then. But they didn't, and thats why they are in the NHL. So expecting some players to wilt now, and others to step up, is merely a narrative that talks about a general population, but this isn't a general population, this is a population of elite, talented hockey players.

Ability to handle pressure rarely makes the difference here. Instead its the talent to play the game in tight checking, low powerplay five on five situations.

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your right he is a very good player who happened to luckily be on stanley cup winning teams... he wasnt a huge factor at all for any of them... nope just the same player in the playoffs... nothing special there

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your right he is a very good player who happened to luckily be on stanley cup winning teams... he wasnt a huge factor at all for any of them... nope just the same player in the playoffs... nothing special there

Thanks for twisting the words.

I never said he wasn't a factor.

I said he was a very good player on very good teams. One player alone doesn't win a cup, it takes a very good team. A very good team is a collection of very good players. He was one of those players and obviously a factor. He was also a factor in making those same teams strong regular season clubs.

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What counts is winning the series. Don't care if the goalie has a .945 save percentage in a series if his save percentage in game 7 is .840.

Winning is what it is all about don't care what the stats say. Last year we kept hearing how unlucky the habs were in the Tampa series and the shooting percentage couldn't be that low over a longer time. Who cares. We lost that is what counts.

Save percentage is what it is..... everyone has bad games and everyone has good games.

You don't get to cherry pick games and say, "these games skew my save percentage, we aren't gonna count them".

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What was his percentage of game winning or game tying goals in the playoffs vs regular season? Do we have those stats? Simply see his points per game were the same doesn't explain him being a conn smythe winner in the playoffs and seen as a role player in th regular season.

Claude Lemieux was a very good player

He was very good in the regular season, and very good in the playoffs.

The problem with the Claude Lemieux playoff myth is that it makes it sound like he was some third line scrub in regular seasons, and first liner in the playoffs. Which is not true.

He was the same scorer in the regular season as he was in the playoffs.

The PPG difference is .025

The number of seasons he had a better PPG in the playoffs vs regular season... is exactly equal to the number of seasons he had a better regular season than playoffs in his career.

He didn't step up in the playoffs. He played the exact same as he did in the regular season. And overall should just be remembered as pretty darn good.

Bourque was a dog in the playoffs in Calgary and had one decent run for us in two series.

Bourque went from being a problem, sometimes our worst player on the ice, to being a force, sometimes our best player on the ice, this for stretches of games or even whole series. Didn't watch him in Calgary and I don't take too much stock of AHL numbers (as I thought you didn't). All I remember is the huge discrepancy between a regular season minus and a big playoff plus.

What about Briere, just a statistical anomaly? Big difference in between his playoff PPG and regular season during his time in Philly.

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He was a very good player, who found himself on some very good teams in the 86 Habs, the 95 Devils 96 Avs and 00 Devils.

Nothing strange about that at all.

On two of those teams.... the 96 Avs, and 00 Devils... he actually scored more (PPG) in the regular season than he did on the playoff runs.

The 1995 Devils is the one that has created the Claude Lemieux myth.

Claude Lemieux was eighth in playoff scoring that year. He wasn't leading. Richer, Broten and MacLean all had more points on the Devils. His 13 goals though were what got him the Conn Smythe nod, which led all players. That said, everyone looking back on that year will tell you that the Conn Smythe should have went to Martin Brodeur, who posted a .927 save percentage and was the best player on the ice for the Devils in three out of four series'.

The 95 Devils are usually my pick for the weakest Stanley Cup winner of all time. That's not to say they were a bad team, but like the 93 Habs they weren't head and shoulders above everyone. They had great chemistry and great coaching and the right mix of veterans and future superstars. Claude Lemieux wasn't some mythical playoff beast that year.

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What counts is winning the series. Don't care if the goalie has a .945 save percentage in a series if his save percentage in game 7 is .840.

Winning is what it is all about don't care what the stats say. Last year we kept hearing how unlucky the habs were in the Tampa series and the shooting percentage couldn't be that low over a longer time. Who cares. We lost that is what counts.

Teams win and lose series though.

We are talking about who is the best goalie. it is possible to be the best goalie in a series and lose.

Its just like the NFL... Dan Marino is a better QB than Trent Dilfer, but Dilfer has a superbowl and Marino doesn't.

This is a team sport, basing how good one player is based on his team's wins and losses is foolish.

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Actually it was 86, with two OT winners - one of then a series winner as a rookie.

Up until the finals with Calgary, the debate was who was more likely to win the conn smythe - Roy or Lemieux.

That was one of the reasons burns got so much heat in 79, when he sat Lemieux, for diving/faking injuries.

The 1995 Devils is the one that has created the Claude Lemieux myth.

Claude Lemieux was eighth in playoff scoring that year. He wasn't leading. Richer, Broten and MacLean all had more points on the Devils. His 13 goals though were what got him the Conn Smythe nod, which led all players. That said, everyone looking back on that year will tell you that the Conn Smythe should have went to Martin Brodeur, who posted a .927 save percentage.

The 95 Devils are usually my pick for the weakest Stanley Cup winner of all time. That's not to say they were a bad team, but like the 93 Habs they weren't head and shoulders above everyone. They had great chemistry and great coaching and the right mix of veterans and future superstars. Claude Lemieux wasn't some mythical playoff beast that year.

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at the end of the day if its alot tougher to score a goal in the playoffs because everything is tougher in the playoffs especially goal scoring (we can all agree on that) and if you have the ability to score goals at a slightly higher clip even .25 then your regular season stats in a tougher situation means what... your performing well??

players scoring goals at a slightly higher average in their playoff careers

the rocket

sakic

messier

c. lemieux

franzen

cicceralli

forseberg

pk subban

dale weise

rene bourque

cam neely

pronger

coffey

players scoring slightly less goals in their playoff careers

a ovechkin

s crosby

m pacioretty

t plekanec

j thornton

a mogilny

gretzky

m lemiuex

bure

selanne

malkin

karlssonn

they say when the going gets tough the tough get going....

it seems that some of if not the most talented players in hockey history seem to have a drop even ever so slightly in goal scoring in the playoffs compared to reg season...

with that said, it takes a certain type of player or certain type of mind frame to keep your reg season goal scoring avg or better in the playoffs. so yes there is such thing as playoff performers....

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Thanks for twisting the words.

I never said he wasn't a factor.

I said he was a very good player on very good teams. One player alone doesn't win a cup, it takes a very good team. A very good team is a collection of very good players. He was one of those players and obviously a factor. He was also a factor in making those same teams strong regular season clubs.

just talking sarcastic.. you did say quote "He was a very good player, who found himself on some very good teams" explaining the reason for his playoff success.

i find it hard to believe a player can travel to 3 different teams and win 4 stanley cups and 2 on seperate occassions... and not be one of the key cogs.. he is a playoff performer!!

would you take claude lemieux on your playoff team?

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at the end of the day if its alot tougher to score a goal in the playoffs because everything is tougher in the playoffs especially goal scoring (we can all agree on that) and if you have the ability to score goals at a slightly higher clip even .25 then your regular season stats in a tougher situation means what... your performing well??

players scoring goals at a slightly higher average in their playoff careers

the rocket

sakic

messier

c. lemieux

franzen

cicceralli

forseberg

pk subban

dale weise

rene bourque

cam neely

pronger

coffey

players scoring slightly less goals in their playoff careers

a ovechkin

s crosby

m pacioretty

t plekanec

j thornton

a mogilny

gretzky

m lemiuex

bure

selanne

malkin

karlssonn

they say when the going gets tough the tough get going....

it seems that some of if not the most talented players in hockey history seem to have a drop even ever so slightly in goal scoring in the playoffs compared to reg season...

with that said, it takes a certain type of player or certain type of mind frame to keep your reg season goal scoring avg or better in the playoffs. so yes there is such thing as playoff performers....

You can attribute some of that drop off to the paucity of powerplays in the postseason.

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Maybe the discussion here should focus on the fact that some players STILL perform in the tough sledding that is the playoffs, and come up big time and time again, while other players tail off and NEVER come up big, at the right time.

You can get a hat trick with a 5-0 lead, yet still lose, stats are great but you didn't win because the rest of your team didn't score or defend good enough, then the rest of the series go without scoring and your team wins the series, and you had 3 goals in the series, albeit irrelevant points/goals as it turns out, but great for Commandants "stats don't lie" theory.

Since Habs are a top corsi team this year, we win right? Eye test says we are terrible, so does the standings, yet...Stats matter if you construe the information incorrectly enough ;)

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just talking sarcastic.. you did say quote "He was a very good player, who found himself on some very good teams" explaining the reason for his playoff success.

i find it hard to believe a player can travel to 3 different teams and win 4 stanley cups and 2 on seperate occassions... and not be one of the key cogs.. he is a playoff performer!!

would you take claude lemieux on your playoff team?

I guess you didn't pay much attention to the NHL in the 90s/early 00s where players were bouncing around crazy between Detroit, Colorado, Dallas and New Jersey. Those four teams (and the pretenders underneath like St. Louis, Philadelphia, Toronto and New York) were acquiring players with Cup experience left and right. You never had to settle when those teams were throwing money around. Uwe Krupp played for Colorado and Detroit on Cup winning teams. Brett Hull played in Dallas and Detroit. Mike Keane played in Colorado, New York, Dallas, St. Louis and back to Colorado. Jason Arnott played in Dallas and New Jersey. Lyle Odelein won a Cup in Montreal then went to New Jersey.

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just talking sarcastic.. you did say quote "He was a very good player, who found himself on some very good teams" explaining the reason for his playoff success.

i find it hard to believe a player can travel to 3 different teams and win 4 stanley cups and 2 on seperate occassions... and not be one of the key cogs.. he is a playoff performer!!

would you take claude lemieux on your playoff team?

I'd take claude lemieux on my regular season team, and I'd take him on my playoff team.

I think he was a very good player.

See my point isn't to diminish Lemieux's accomplishments... in fact its the opposite. Its to point out that the idea that he was merely good in the playoffs is flawed. This guy was pretty good in the regular season and the playoffs too.

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Yes its harder to score in the playoffs....

But statistics show us that when we get small sample sizes (a lot less games in playofs than regular season), we should expect some players to score at a higher clip but still instead of a standard deviation or 2..... so that doesn't prove clutch, that just proves normal statistical noise exists in hockey, the same way it exists in everything else with some degree of randomness.


You can attribute some of that drop off to the paucity of powerplays in the postseason.

Exactly. Scoring rates 5v5 don't really change in playoffs.

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Agreed teams win. That is what raises the question - would you rather spend $6M on a A-/B+ goalie plus better scoring and defence around him, or $10.5/$11M on an A+ goalie and potentially less scoring and defence.

The day when you can sign a Patrick Roy, Forsburg, Sakic, Blake, Ozolinsh and trade for a ray bourque are over. The only team that had an A++ goalie and average offence/defence that went to the finals were the Sabres with Hasek and they didn't win. While we do have Subban who is better than any dmen the sabres had, we are pretty thin on D after that and one friggin elite scorer who can't generate offence on his own like Kane can.

This is why MB has to get off his friggin ass and do something in the next two years, because after that, our window is going to close with Price and MaxPac looking for huge raises.

Teams win and lose series though.

We are talking about who is the best goalie. it is possible to be the best goalie in a series and lose.

Its just like the NFL... Dan Marino is a better QB than Trent Dilfer, but Dilfer has a superbowl and Marino doesn't.

This is a team sport, basing how good one player is based on his team's wins and losses is foolish.

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the question is if Price gives you 5 million worth of play over the average starter. I believe that the shots he stops is worth that.

Having price also doesn't stop you from building the rest of the team.

You gotta stop paying the DDs the Ellers, and the Emelins $11.1 million for the trio though

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Every salary cap right now has room for two bad contracts and that's it. Even then, you gotta be paying someone less than market value somewhere.

The Blackhawks had their extensions of Kane and Toews not kicking in yet while Keith and Hossa made less than what they should have. Once the extensions kicked in after the Cup, a lot of guys went to the wayside. Same happened to the Kings in 2014. Brown's extension hadn't kicked in yet while Gaborik was a rental who needed to be paid later.

Washington is the frontrunner to win the Cup right now and they have two bad contracts: Brooks Laich and Brooks Orpik. They have a highly paid Ovechkin who is making less than he should, Kuz isn't in his second contract yet, Backstrom is one of the best C's in the league making only $6.7M and they got Williams and Oshie at pretty decent deals. Orpik could be a problem for them in a few years. Laich they can afford.

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Brian Bickell rises to the occassion every post season... is that why he had 0 goals on a cup winning hawks team last year.

Justin Williams ppg in the regular season and playoffs is pretty much equal.

-----------------------

Jonathan Quick had a great playoff in 2012, no doubt about it. In 2014, he had a rather pedestrian playoff, with a mere 911 save percentage, but won the cup cause LA was that damn good as a team.

Lets forget about these narratives about "clutch", "stepping up in the playoffs" and all that. They are myths... media narratives... thats it.

Funny how you state Bickell had 0 goals, but forgot to mention the 5 assists (which are just as valuable as goals).

His Stats are more impressive than Pacioretty's post-season #'s given the circumstances of his role during those cup runs.

Bickell: 32 pts over 60 games played l3 playoffs.

Pacioretty: 18 pts in 32 games played l3 playoffs.

Your mind has been tricked that post-season performers don't exist because of our teams lack of success in the post-season, but they most definitely do exist!

Based on the amount of replies you got; it's pretty safe to say a majority of the forum agrees that Jonathan Quick is worthy of that echelon.

PS: .911 save % but also won every single facing elimination game, that's an intangible that stats don't account for.

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