IN THE HEARTS OF MEN Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 bartley?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 bartley?? Hey, apparently MB felt that Barltey was buried in Nashville's extremely deep pool of D-men and saw himself as identifying an under-utilized asset. Not unlike what he did on a more important scale with Weise in Vancouver. I'll be surprised if the guy amounts to much, but it's just possible that MB sees some future for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 ok like who? If you want true top 4 defencemen Becoming unrestricted this summer... Dan Hamhuis and Jason Demers. I have no problem paying for a physical defenceman who prevents goals with his physicality. If you want to pay the cheap price for a bottom pair guy, Adam Pardy, Eric Gryba, Ben Lovejoy, Mike Weber, and Kevan Miller make the same mistakes as Emelin at 1/4 of the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If you want true top 4 defencemen Becoming unrestricted this summer... Dan Hamhuis and Jason Demers. I have no problem paying for a physical defenceman who prevents goals with his physicality. If you want to pay the cheap price for a bottom pair guy, Adam Pardy, Eric Gryba, Ben Lovejoy, Mike Weber, and Kevan Miller make the same mistakes as Emelin at 1/4 of the price. Have we given up on Pateryn taking over that role in the bottom pair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hamhuis is still a capable top 4 and physical? He is just a touch more physical than Yannick Weber I suppose, but compared to Emelin that is a joke I assume and his 0 goals this year wouldnt seem an answer to help Habs offense any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Being a top 4 doesn't mean you have to score goals... But yes Hamhuis is still a significantly better defenceman than Emelin and a legit top 4 option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Have we given up on Pateryn taking over that role in the bottom pair? Sure thats another option. Pateryn can play physical. The point is that Emelin is tracking as either a #6 or #7 defenceman this year... heck in some categories he's a #8.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Being a top 4 doesn't mean you have to score goals... But yes Hamhuis is still a significantly better defenceman than Emelin and a legit top 4 option. Doesn't it seem silly to you to continue to offer up derivative fancy stats posts where the only variable is possession numbers after the Habs performance this year? Fancy stats through the roof, team in the cellar. NJ/TOR/AZ/EDM make high profile analytics hires two summers ago, and haven't made the playoffs since. Montreal hires "a very sharp" analytics guys, and all of a sudden Therrien is talking about puck possession in press conferences. What a joke! All those numbers tell you is whom has the puck more when the players are on the ice. Every conclusion you reach afterwards is an inference and an opinion. Analytics have zero predictive value in hockey. They are stats, and can frame research, but little else. Seriously...these Warrior graphics are reminiscent of Al Gore in "An Inconvenient Truth." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xXx..CK..xXx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sure thats another option. Pateryn can play physical. The point is that Emelin is tracking as either a #6 or #7 defenceman this year... heck in some categories he's a #8.... Your stats say he's a #7 or #8 but they also say that Barberio is a top pairing d man and that's where you lost me. I quite like Barberio but it's obvious there are flaws in the analytics. The stats show that Emelin can be replaced but we do need to replace him. Subban is more likely to be that type of physical presence in Emelin's absence than Pateryn in my opinion so we need someone else. Pateryn doesn't have a quick enough stride. I like Emelin and always will but if we get a decent underachieving top 6 forward for him in return I'm all for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Your stats say he's a #7 or #8 but they also say that Barberio is a top pairing d man and that's where you lost me. I quite like Barberio but it's obvious there are flaws in the analytics. The stats show that Emelin can be replaced but we do need to replace him. Subban is more likely to be that type of physical presence in Emelin's absence than Pateryn in my opinion so we need someone else. Pateryn doesn't have a quick enough stride. I like Emelin and always will but if we get a decent underachieving top 6 forward for him in return I'm all for it. Analytics don't have a brain, they're just numbers tabulated to reach an end conclusion someone has in mind.That Warrior graphic doesn't tell you that Emelin is used (foolishly) by Therrien as a shut down guy while Barberio is sheltered. Context is everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazy26 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Analytics don't have a brain, they're just numbers tabulated to reach an end conclusion someone has in mind. That Warrior graphic doesn't tell you that Emelin is used (foolishly) by Therrien as a shut down guy while Barberio is sheltered. Context is everything. The first stat, TOI% exposure, does imply that Barberio gets sheltered minutes while Emelin faces tougher competition. I do agree that the graphic makes things seem clearer than they actually are, but it's an interesting breakdown of those analytics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Analytics are used to conclude that we are just unlucky in our shooting percentage, not that we don't have any finish. They don't explain that our higher shooting percentage in October was because of weak goaltending. They don't tell you that not one of the three goals weisse scored in his hat trick game against Calgary should have been allowed by an NHL goalie. Analytics have their place. Unfortunately they are being used as the end all be all these days, because they are the shiny new toy for teams and fans to play with. Analytics don't have a brain, they're just numbers tabulated to reach an end conclusion someone has in mind. That Warrior graphic doesn't tell you that Emelin is used (foolishly) by Therrien as a shut down guy while Barberio is sheltered. Context is everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Doesn't it seem silly to you to continue to offer up derivative fancy stats posts where the only variable is possession numbers after the Habs performance this year? Fancy stats through the roof, team in the cellar. NJ/TOR/AZ/EDM make high profile analytics hires two summers ago, and haven't made the playoffs since. Montreal hires "a very sharp" analytics guys, and all of a sudden Therrien is talking about puck possession in press conferences. What a joke! All those numbers tell you is whom has the puck more when the players are on the ice. Every conclusion you reach afterwards is an inference and an opinion. Analytics have zero predictive value in hockey. They are stats, and can frame research, but little else. Seriously...these Warrior graphics are reminiscent of Al Gore in "An Inconvenient Truth." You know what team was first on analytics and uses them a lot.... Chicago. You know what team joined them in the analytics movement? LA. When NJ/Tor/AZ/Edm made their high profile hires, they were 6 years behind the curve, of course they haven't caught up yet. But if you want to keep believing Emelin is a good player, go ahead.... cause you know what... he's the defenceman giving up the most goals per icetime, on one of the worst teams in the NHL... and if that analytic means nothing to you, then you just don't understand the point of the game which is to score more goals than the other team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Your stats say he's a #7 or #8 but they also say that Barberio is a top pairing d man and that's where you lost me. I quite like Barberio but it's obvious there are flaws in the analytics. The stats show that Emelin can be replaced but we do need to replace him. Subban is more likely to be that type of physical presence in Emelin's absence than Pateryn in my opinion so we need someone else. Pateryn doesn't have a quick enough stride. I like Emelin and always will but if we get a decent underachieving top 6 forward for him in return I'm all for it. You are mis reading the stats.... they don't say Barberio is a top pairing guy at all. You have to look at the time on ice stat which shows that Barberio is sheltered. However on the whole, even taking into consideration that Barberio is a 3rd pairing guy, and Emelin is used as a borderline 2nd/3rd and facing just a touch better competition, we still can conclude a few things. 1) Barberio is a good third pairing D, who could fill in for the top 4 due to injuries. 2) Emelin doesn't belong anywhere higher than a #6, and on a contender likely isn't even that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Analytics are used to conclude that we are just unlucky in our shooting percentage, not that we don't have any finish. They don't explain that our higher shooting percentage in October was because of weak goaltending. They don't tell you that not one of the three goals weisse scored in his hat trick game against Calgary should have been allowed by an NHL goalie. Analytics have their place. Unfortunately they are being used as the end all be all these days, because they are the shiny new toy for teams and fans to play with. You can explain the high shooting percentage in October. Everyone (including me) said that shooting at 10% was unlikely to continue. This team shot 7.8% over 82 games in 2013-14.. It shot 7.7% over 82 games in 2014-15. The forward group hasn't changed that much. So we knew that shooting 10% in October was too high. It was a run of good luck. What do we also know? Shooting 6% from December 1st to now, is also unexpected and a run of bad luck. We should be able to safely assume the numbers will go back to about 7.5-8.0% next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You can explain the high shooting percentage in October. Everyone (including me) said that shooting at 10% was unlikely to continue. This team shot 7.8% over 82 games in 2013-14.. It shot 7.7% over 82 games in 2014-15. The forward group hasn't changed that much. So we knew that shooting 10% in October was too high. It was a run of good luck. What do we also know? Shooting 6% from December 1st to now, is also unexpected and a run of bad luck. We should be able to safely assume the numbers will go back to about 7.5-8.0% next year. This is an excellent post, and one that is being overlooked. I think everyone can agree that this team is missing one superstar forward or two elite forwards, depending on which one they can get, but the lineup hasn't really changed in the last couple of years, so one should expect these things to balance out over time. The lower shooting % and lower save % against tell the story of why this team has slumped. I expect next year to be a true bounce back. The current team has some holes and MB has work to do to fill them, but I still believe that the habs are the best bad team this year. It happens every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovett's Magnatones Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Analytics are used to conclude that we are just unlucky in our shooting percentage, not that we don't have any finish. They don't explain that our higher shooting percentage in October was because of weak goaltending. They don't tell you that not one of the three goals weisse scored in his hat trick game against Calgary should have been allowed by an NHL goalie. Analytics have their place. Unfortunately they are being used as the end all be all these days, because they are the shiny new toy for teams and fans to play with. I think analytics are interesting, and they can help clarify some things beyond just using "the eye test." My issue is when analytics are presented as a final answer to all issues and the end to all hockey discussion. I think it's great Chicago and LAK used analytics to help them get an edge when they won the Cup. I think having the best teams in the league those year helped a little bit more. I'd like to see an argument that those teams wouldn't have won without using fancy stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDriveFor25 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My guess.. MB makes 5 or 6 trades, brings in a couple question marks and a depth defender. NB, Eller, Weise, Flash, Pleks, Pateryn and some youngsters all moved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I think analytics are interesting, and they can help clarify some things beyond just using "the eye test." My issue is when analytics are presented as a final answer to all issues and the end to all hockey discussion. I think it's great Chicago and LAK used analytics to help them get an edge when they won the Cup. I think having the best teams in the league those year helped a little bit more. I'd like to see an argument that those teams wouldn't have won without using fancy stats. Using the analytics, helped them to know which players to acquire to build those best teams in the league. You are right though, they aren't the be all and end all, and you have to use them in conjunction with traditional scouting. Doesn't change the fact that traditional scouting shows issues in Emelin's game (mobility, pivots, positioning, etc....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronthab Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 "but I still believe that the habs are the best bad team this year. It happens every year. " Not a bad summary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
l<OV4L3V Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My guess.. MB makes 5 or 6 trades, brings in a couple question marks and a depth defender. NB, Eller, Weise, Flash, Pleks, Pateryn and some youngsters all moved. My trade deadline wish list: Beaulieu for Yakupov+pick Eller in a cap swap, hopefully for a D-man to replace Emelin (don't care what team)...or possibly Drouin Flash for picks (Florida) Weise to the Sharks or Ducks, Sami Vatanen was on the block but I doubt it now with the Ducks surging so sharks more likely Pateryn for picks Pleks stays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stogey24 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I don't understand why your all wanting to move Beaulieu. You understand the gap that leaves on the blue line, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Not wanting to move him and actually think he would be more a Summer move in a 'real' trade and Oilers seem like a logical trading partner with more forwards to deal and in need of defense (sort of opposite of Habs). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The reason people talk about moving Beaulieu is that he is the only asset we possess that could tempt a team to send us back a young FW with top-6 potential. If we trade Beaulieu, we will absolutely need to sign a top-4 d-man as a UFA. Ever since Commandant demonstrated that the UFA pool contains many more FWs than D, I've given up on the idea of trading Beaulieu. We're better off just signing a UFA forward or two and keeping Nate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 But I doubt Bergevin will deal him and that is fine by me also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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