GDT San Jose Sharks vs. Montreal Canadiens | December 16th, 2016 | 7:30 EST

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

it took primeau until his 4th pro season to realize his potential with detroit....

 

and only put up huge points in his 3rd ohl season.. mccarron played only 2 (not sure about age of the 2, dont have time for that)

 

now of course mike will have it tougher because the game has got that much faster with the new rules... but expectations are set by mike to exceed not us.

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

This sounds like déjà vu to me...fans putting all sorts of hope into a prospect who is less than elite. Commandant makes a pretty compelling case. The reasonable hope is that he will be a strong, intimidating 3rd line C who can chip on as a big body on the PP. I'd be fully satisfied with that as an outcome for a late 1st round pick. Given his history, pencilling him in for top-6 duty does seem analogous to fan fantasizing about Eller, Tinordi, Komisarek,  or Emelin- all players who many fans expected to become major, impact NHLers, but whose actual careers have ranged from pathetic (Tinordi) to adequate (Emelin).

 

Exactly. 

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, Stogey24 said:

Having a great run in the OHL and being a huge part of winning the memorial cup means nothing? Developing into permanent centre, earning all Star and team rookie of the year honours. Not to mention Bergevin singing his praises about how well he's done each year. Even going as far as to say he's a cornerstone piece. None of that means anything?

 

Seems like he's developing pretty well to me. 

 

Sorry he doesn't meet your standards though. I bet McCarron is pretty upset over that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

His team had a great run in Oshawa.

 

He had 18 points in 21 playoff games.... 13 points less than the team leader (Michael Dal Colle and Cole Cassels tied).

 

Thats not a great run for a 19 year old, in his last year of junior playing against 16-19 year olds.  Its just not. 

 

 

Bergevin singing his praises.... the same guy who publically stated they weren't trading subban, who said that Price's injury was 6 weeks?  what a GM says publically means little. 

 

 

Oh and I see we have a highlight package.... meh... Lars Eller has nice highlight packages too.... so does Torrey Mitchell, a fourth line center. 

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

it took primeau until his 4th pro season to realize his potential with detroit....

 

and only put up huge points in his 3rd ohl season.. mccarron played only 2 (not sure about age of the 2, dont have time for that)

 

now of course mike will have it tougher because the game has got that much faster with the new rules... but expectations are set by mike to exceed not us.

 

Keith Primeau.

 

127 points in 65 games before being drafted.  BEFORE

 

Mike McCarron

 

34 points in 66 games and was after being drafted (a year later in development).

Even his next year, he was still well, well below Primeau's pace.

 

 

HILARIOUS that you think these are comparable, its only 1/4th of the points...... and McCarron has the advantage of age.

 

And yes he was an OHL rookie, but that is no excuse because he played for the US NTDP for 2 years prior to that, playing 60+ games a year against better competition than the OHL has (College teams, National teams in junior tournaments) and because the history of NTDP players transitioning to the OHL shows that high draft picks do really well. 

 

 

 

Seriously if you think Keith Primeau, a legit top line NHL centre is comparable to McCarron in any way; you're completely out to lunch.  The only thing they have in common is size, that's it.  If you are looking for a keith primeau career, its nuts.

 

 

 

[Commandant]

And cause I know you all love advanced stats... Michael McCarron put up a corsi of 25% against Washington on Saturday Night.

 

Thats considerably worse than the 34% that George Parros managed during his one season as a Hab.  

 

Translation.... Thats terrible and below NHL quality. 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

55 minutes ago, Commandant said:

And cause I know you all love advanced stats... Michael McCarron put up a corsi of 25% against Washington on Saturday Night.

 

Thats considerably worse than the 34% that George Parros managed during his one season as a Hab.  

 

Translation.... Thats terrible and below NHL quality. 

 

Are you comparing one game corsi to one season corsi?

 

Why do you always argue poorly when it comes to McCarron? Just be straight about it.

[JoeLassister]

8 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Are you comparing one game corsi to one season corsi?

 

Why do you always argue poorly when it comes to McCarron? Just be straight about it.

Cuz he had him in the 3rd round.

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

Are you comparing one game corsi to one season corsi?

 

Why do you always argue poorly when it comes to McCarron? Just be straight about it.

 

A guy who has played two games.

 

And according to people here he was good in both.  He wasnt good against washington... not at all.

 

Im not saying he will be 25% all season... but trying to argue he had a good game against Washington is nuts... he was the worst hab possession wise in that game with a terrible number 

[CerebusClone]

Also another question is who exactly in that 2013 draft did the Canadiens really miss on when they selected Michael McCarron? It's one thing to criticize Montreal's selection, but as this moment, who didn't they pick at the 25th spot who is now lock on a Top 6 in the NHL for many years to come (or Top 3 defensemen, or number 1 goalie)?  

 

Shea Theodore isn't looking like a major steal at this moment

Ryan Hartman has nothing on McCarron in terms of production at lower levels.

Dauphin had 24 points in the AHL last season

Dano has yet to establish himself as an NHLer, and is still accumulating miles on the AHL shuttle this season. 

JT Compher is looking pretty decent so far, but has yet to play a single NHL game. 

 

Even in later rounds there isn't a single bonafide NHL key player. Pavel Buchnevich has looked good in NY this season before his injury, too early too tell whether it was a fluke. Petan hasn't done much. Duclair has some decent stretches, but has been a healthy scratch often this season. 

 

So far Michael McCarron looks as good as any other player Montreal could have selected, and I'm guessing there are a couple teams who wish they had selected the huge physical specimen who was a key player for a Memorial Cup champions team instead of the prospect they selected. 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

31 minutes ago, CerebusClone said:

Also another question is who exactly in that 2013 draft did the Canadiens really miss on when they selected Michael McCarron?

 

They didn't miss on anyone. The guy who was their #2 choice they took with their very next pick.

 

(The guy Commandant wanted was JT Compher)

[Commandant]

Yes I was very high on JT Compher at the time.   Still am.

But again this is about organizational philosophy.  As i said earlier:

 

If i go high risk, high reward with these late first round picks and get Evgeni Kuznetsov instead of Jarred Tinordi, plus then I take busts in two other years, I'm fine with that. 

 

The safe picks of Kyle Chipchura, Jarred Tinordi and Mike McCarron illustrates the screw up is at an organizational philosophy level.   Its le boeuf du ouest all over again. (Lindsay Vallis, Brad Brown, David Wilkie, Terry Ryan, Brent Bilodeau, heck Turner Stevenson was the best of the bunch)  Drafting great big dudes who can't score, but don't worry they will develop into top 4 D or top 6 fwds. 

 

 

Look at Chipchura, Tinordi, McCarron.... No team would trade a Kuznetsov for all three guys.... just hitting on 1 out of 3 and having two other high risk/high reward guys who bust is a better organizational philosophy for winning. 

 

3rd and 4th lines can be filled on the free agent scrap heap.  Top 6 players are rare in free agency, are highly sought after meaning you have to compete with other organizations, and cost a fortune. 

[Guest Stogey24]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

A guy who has played two games.

 

And according to people here he was good in both.  He wasnt good against washington... not at all.

 

Im not saying he will be 25% all season... but trying to argue he had a good game against Washington is nuts... he was the worst hab possession wise in that game with a terrible number 

Oh my dude. Go home. 

[Commandant]

Its okay though guys... He's the same size as Keith Primeau, so clearly he'll score just as much. 

 

Seriously that might be the worst comparison I've ever heard. 

[Commandant]

Just now, Stogey24 said:

Oh my dude. Go home. 

 

Sorry I brought stats to the table that he didn't have a good game in Washington.

 

Instead of an argument that he's big and was the 4th leading scorer on a memorial cup team, he's gonna be great!

 

When your best response is "Go Home" you know that you've got nothing. 

[Guest Stogey24]

What's the point of arguing with you man. Your always right. I've said what I have to say about McCarron, as has 99% of the people on this forum. 

 

You have such an ego, it's hilarious. 

 

 

[CerebusClone]

32 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Yes I was very high on JT Compher at the time.   Still am.

But again this is about organizational philosophy.  As i said earlier:

 

If i go high risk, high reward with these late first round picks and get Evgeni Kuznetsov instead of Jarred Tinordi, plus then I take busts in two other years, I'm fine with that. 

 

The safe picks of Kyle Chipchura, Jarred Tinordi and Mike McCarron illustrates the screw up is at an organizational philosophy level.   Its le boeuf du ouest all over again. 

 

 

No team would trade a Kuznetsov for all three guys.... just hitting on 1 out of 3 and having two other high risk/high reward guys who bust is a better organizational philosophy for winning. 

 

3rd and 4th lines can be filled on the free agent scrap heap.  Top 6 players are rare in free agency, are highly sought after meaning you have to compete with other organizations, and cost a fortune. 

 

Except for the most part, Montreal under Timmins has gone with guys with high potential with their first round picks. We drafted guys like Sergachev, Scherbak, Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, and Andrei Kostsitsyn who were all top offensive minded players. We also drafted Pacioretty and McDonagh who I am sure Montreal saw as top talents, and that's what they became. Two years ago we took a risk on a high riser like Noah Juulsen. Montreal also selected Louis Leblanc, who I was high on that year (actually at least a year before we drafted him), who projected to be a solid Top 6 player in the Patrice Bergeron mold. Of course we went for a potential franchise player in Carey Price in 2005. 

 

Montreal also took a chance on David Fischer, they went for the homerun, the hidden gem, but they struck out on this one. 

 

So far all guys definitely selected to be Top 6 forwards, Top 4 defensemen, or top goalie. 

 

Then we have Michael McCarron, I still think (and that's what Montreal said) they viewed him as a potential huge physical player with the skills to play a Top 6 role. If we're talking about trying to hit a homerun, this is one example, a homerun is not always a smaller player or a unidimensional offensive player. I don't think Montreal drafted him hoping he'd become a very strong 3rd liner, I think they drafted him hoping he would develop into an impactful power-forward. 

 

That leaves us with only 2 players possibly drafted in the hopes to see them become high quality, shutdown players. The 2004 and 2010 draft were mediocre years for prospects, it's easy to point one player the Habs missed on in Kuznetsov (although he only has one good year so far, this year isn't for that great for him), however other teams did not exactly do better. Those were pretty good years to go for the safer picks... it's not like the team could not use what we were hoping to see Chipchura and Tinordi become.

[Commandant]

25 minutes ago, Stogey24 said:

What's the point of arguing with you man. Your always right. I've said what I have to say about McCarron, as has 99% of the people on this forum. 

 

You have such an ego, it's hilarious. 

 

 

 

If you don't want to respond, then don't respond.  If you can't make an actual coherent argument as to why my point is wrong. That's your issue. 

 

Instead you responded with snippy remarks, like you're a five year old. 

 

But sure, take your pot shots, it justs proves to me that you have no actual basis to back up your statements and you didn't like getting called out on pulling shit out of your ass. 

 

 

[Machine of Loving Grace]

46 minutes ago, Commandant said:

But again this is about organizational philosophy.

 

So what was Jacob de la Rose?

[Commandant]

14 minutes ago, CerebusClone said:

 

Except for the most part, Montreal under Timmins has gone with guys with high potential with their first round picks. We drafted guys like Sergachev, Scherbak, Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, and Andrei Kostsitsyn who were all top offensive minded players. We also drafted Pacioretty and McDonagh who I am sure Montreal saw as top talents, and that's what they became. Two years ago we took a risk on a high riser like Noah Juulsen. Montreal also selected Louis Leblanc, who I was high on that year (actually at least a year before we drafted him), who projected to be a solid Top 6 player in the Patrice Bergeron mold. Of course we went for a potential franchise player in Carey Price in 2005. 

 

Montreal also took a chance on David Fischer, they went for the homerun, the hidden gem, but they struck out on this one. 

 

So far all guys definitely selected to be Top 6 forwards, Top 4 defensemen, or top goalie. 

 

Then we have Michael McCarron, I still think (and that's what Montreal said) they viewed him as a potential huge physical player with the skills to play a Top 6 role. If we're talking about trying to hit a homerun, this is one example, a homerun is not always a smaller player or a unidimensional offensive player. I don't think Montreal drafted him hoping he'd become a very strong 3rd liner, I think they drafted him hoping he would develop into an impactful power-forward. 

 

That leaves us with only 2 players possibly drafted in the hopes to see them become high quality, shutdown players. The 2004 and 2010 draft were mediocre years for prospects, it's easy to point one player the Habs missed on in Kuznetsov (although he only has one good year so far, this year isn't for that great for him), however other teams did not exactly do better. Those were pretty good years to go for the safer picks... it's not like the team could not use what we were hoping to see Chipchura and Tinordi become.

 

No we haven't always done it... but we've done it enough that it hurts the team. 

 

And here is the problem with... we could use what Tinordi could have became.

 

When you go for a one-dimensional player, and he doesn't achieve that dimension, he's sunk. 

When you go for Manny Malholtra, thinking you are getting a scorer, and he becomes a quality 3rd/4th liner, you still have something.  Same with a guy like Guy Carbonneau.  Drafted as a forward who could score, evolved into a checker.

 

You can find those checkers... you can find what Tinordi could have become, in free agency... or like Emelin in the third round, or later. 

 

You have to look for skill in the first round.  And that DOES NOT mean a smaller player.  Nikita Scherbak is not small, Andrei Kostitsyn was not small.  They have size and are highly skilled.  its not about size, its about skill.  If you do not have puck skills at 18, you aren't likely to develop them post draft.  You can't teach puck skills, you can teach a guy who can skate and has good hockey sense to play defence if the offence doesn't come.  Thats why most NHL 3rd and 4th liners were high scorers. 

 

Here is the other thing, in the NHL, to play defence, the game is incredibly fast.  When you have the puck on your stick, its a split second decision, to make a pass, or deke an opponent or do what you have to do to get it out of your own end.  The skills necessary to play at that speed manifest as offensive tools against lower levels.  And if you don't have quick enough decision making, or quick enough hands. If you can't execute plays facing top speed, you won't be a good defensive player either, you'll be prone to giveaways and mistakes when facing a forechecker. 

[Commandant]

12 minutes ago, Machine of Loving Grace said:

 

So what was Jacob de la Rose?

 

He's again looking like a large, defense first forward with limited offensive upside. 

 

I was wrong on him, I thought he had a bit more offensive potential.... but he didn't. Even then I never thought he had first line upside, though i grant i had him better than he turned out. 

We went back to back with guys with size and non-elite offensive upside.  Not a good formula.... then we followed it up with Connor Crisp in the third round.  Again it was like the Sens series was in their heads.  We traded for George Parros the same day, then signed Doug Murray later than summer. 

 

Totally mind-****ed, in a draft where we had 3 of the top 36 picks, and 5 of the top 71. 

 

 

And you'll note i had a first round grade on Lehkonen,... how is that looking?  Its our only saving grace out of that draft, now that Reway's career seems to be in real jeopardy (though no fault of the scouts there, just unlucky). 

[Trizzak]

15 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Yes I was very high on JT Compher at the time.   Still am.

But again this is about organizational philosophy.  As i said earlier:

 

If i go high risk, high reward with these late first round picks and get Evgeni Kuznetsov instead of Jarred Tinordi, plus then I take busts in two other years, I'm fine with that. 

 

The safe picks of Kyle Chipchura, Jarred Tinordi and Mike McCarron illustrates the screw up is at an organizational philosophy level.   Its le boeuf du ouest all over again. (Lindsay Vallis, Brad Brown, David Wilkie, Terry Ryan, Brent Bilodeau, heck Turner Stevenson was the best of the bunch)  Drafting great big dudes who can't score, but don't worry they will develop into top 4 D or top 6 fwds. 

 

 

Look at Chipchura, Tinordi, McCarron.... No team would trade a Kuznetsov for all three guys.... just hitting on 1 out of 3 and having two other high risk/high reward guys who bust is a better organizational philosophy for winning. 

 

3rd and 4th lines can be filled on the free agent scrap heap.  Top 6 players are rare in free agency, are highly sought after meaning you have to compete with other organizations, and cost a fortune. 

 

We're not the only team that took a 'Chasing Lucic' draft philosophy for a year, and the Habs have drafted 'boom or bust' offensive guys in years prior to and since McCarron.

 

The only organizational philosophy screwup I see in Montreal is refusing the draft a noteworthy centreman for almost a decade until one lands in their lap at #3 overall. 

[Commandant]

Thats the thing, when McCarron was drafted no one even knew he was a centre.  He was projected as a wing, and only the move by Hunter which was unexpected changed that.  He had never played centre before that. 

 

So yeah, its part of not drafting a centre. 

 

The only one we've really tried is Leblanc, and even then we weren't drafting pure skill, we were looking at a two-way second liner.

 

Go for pure skill this year... just grab the most skilled guy on the board.  Sasha Chmelevski would be my pick right now around where we would draft, but lots can change. 

 

And no we aren't the only team that took the chasing Lucic philosophy, but all of Tyler Biggs, Mike McCarron, Mitch Moroz and Tom Wilson haven't worked out.  Yes, Tom Wilson is a fourth liner, but a fourth liner at 16th overall isn't ideal. 

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I think we're having problems here in part because we're arguing about several issues jumbled together.

 

One is whether McCarron can legitimately be expected to become a top-6 FW. Commandant says 'no,' and to my mind the stats back him up; and the track record of fan mooning over prospects that turned out to be duds, or just average players, makes me skeptical of Commandant's critics on this.

 

Another is whether getting less than a top-6 FW is an acceptable return on a late first-round pick. I say, yes it is, especially when that guy is a 6'6 behemoth. Commandant seems to disagree, and so, apparently, does the 'Keith Primeau' crowd. But I don't agree that you can just go and sign a 6'6 hard-hitting 3rd line C at will. If it were that easy, we'd have done it repeatedly by now. So McCarron as a 3rd-line C sounds like a damned valuable asset to me, one not to be sneezed at.

 

A third issue is whether McCarron made sense as a pick in that slot, given what we knew at the time. Commandant is very wedded to his view that it didn't. But CerebusClone's review of the nearest alternatives does tend to suggest that the Habs, rather gutsily considering where Big Mac was ranked, made the right call.

 

And a fourth is whether the team has an unhelpful bias in favour of '200-ft-game' over high-end skill at the draft table. This is a really interesting question and one for which I have no informed answer. But I'm learning a lot from the thoughtful posts above. One thing I will say is that the long-standing dearth of serious talent up front - imagine where we'd be this season without UFA deus ex machina Radulov! - is at least suggestive that Commandant has a point.

 

It's just too bad these discussions always have to degenerate into name-calling. It's a clear case of arguments being so heated because the stakes are so low.

[Guest Stogey24]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

If you don't want to respond, then don't respond.  If you can't make an actual coherent argument as to why my point is wrong. That's your issue. 

 

Instead you responded with snippy remarks, like you're a five year old. 

 

But sure, take your pot shots, it justs proves to me that you have no actual basis to back up your statements and you didn't like getting called out on pulling shit out of your ass. 

 

 

Pulling shit put of my ass? What are you talking about. YOU'RE the one reaching for the stars on any type of criticism you can find on McCarron

 

 Why was he out with 3 minutes to play in the game? If he was so shit, why would Therrien have him out there in such a critical situation. He set Flynn up, for what was inches from a goal, nearing the end of the third too.

 

I know it's easy for you to look up stats on your computer. Watch the game. 

 

I have nothing more to say to you. Your the most condescending person on this forum. Good luck on your scouting career bud . Cheers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Stogey24

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Stogey24 said:

Pulling shit put of my ass? What are you talking about. YOU'RE the one reaching for the stars on any type of criticism you can find on McCarron

 

 Why was he out with 3 minutes to play in the game? If he was so shit, why would Therrien have him out there in such a critical situation. He set Flynn up, for what was inches from a goal, nearing the end of the third too.

 

I know it's easy for you to look up stats on your computer. Watch the game. 

 

I have nothing more to say to you. Your the most condescending person on this forum. Good luck on your scouting career bud . Cheers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm condescending?  Maybe that's ture. However I'm not the one who is outwardly calling other posters names.... 

 

Look at the entire argument.  The entire time I've done nothing but attack arguments.  Everyone else here gets it and has done the same. 

 

You are the only person who has turned this into name calling. 

 

P.S. you messed up your/you're again.