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Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning | December 28th, 2016 | 7:30 EST


Habsfan84

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6 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Its not the cart before the horse if we've already seen it in each of the last two years.... 

Yes, most HabFans are very disappointed with Weber's floundering around out there...Gomez for McDonagh 2.0 I tell ya!

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Speaking of comprehension, I cannot understand how some people think we are worse in our own end this year.

 

I don't think the Habs been pinned in their end of the rink nearly as much this year, Weber is still a stud in his own end, but go ahead, carry on with the narrative that Weber will suck sooner than PK, sooner or later you may or may not end up right...

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14 hours ago, Commandant said:

Always going to extremes shows that you don't really comprehend what is being said. 

Gotta say you did lose me with several posts that made little sense at all. But get the general idea that you think Weber is fading fast and old age is catching up to him.

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Saying a guy is dropping off and giving up a lot more scoring chances, and can have some issues with fast teams isn't saying that he's complete crap.  Its just saying that he's not at the elite level he's being given credit for either. 

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I share Commandant's concerns, but let's wait and see if Weber can raise his defensive game over the remainder of the season before reaching definitive conclusions.

 

That Subban is hurt tends to lessen any pain Weber's regression may cause us. If PK turns out to be injury prone - which I doubt, but anything's possible - then that will certainly change the equation, since Weber is very durable. In this case we'd win the trade by default.

 

On the cap thing, I really think a lot of fans are showing a huge double-standard. Any team locking up a guy until age 41 at a major cap hit would be criticized, probably ridiculed, on this forum. But because it's 'our' team and the team is all in on Weber, we resort to all kinds of hypothetical scenarios that make it OK. Prima facie, this is a poor contract. Maybe it won't end up hurting us. Maybe Weber will have the good taste to retire before he becomes a cap rip-off. Maybe the cap will rise to a point where the hit is no big deal. Maybe some team will be enthusiastic about acquiring an elderly, overpaid defenceman.

 

Or - maybe not. The contract basically makes the Habs hostages of fortune for the last 4-5 years of the deal. But sometimes fortune smiles.

 

What bugs me about it, other than the loss of PK's entertainment value, is that, all other things being equal, we traded away 4 years of performance from our #1 d-man and shortened our Cup window. I say this because I don't see Weber as an upgrade on PK; therefore the trade was pointless. But what's done is done.  

 

(EDIT: one thing I notice about Weber, and that doesn't get commented on enough, is that the refs seem to give him a lot of breaks.He gets away with holding, interference, etc., that I doubt Subban or other players would. I guess that's because he's an official NHL Good Boy: unsmiling, zero personality, never talks back or complains, et. While I hate this kind of arbitrary enforcement, it's part of the value Weber brings, and may be especially useful in the playoffs).

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

(EDIT: one thing I notice about Weber, and that doesn't get commented on enough, is that the refs seem to give him a lot of breaks.He gets away with holding, interference, etc., that I doubt Subban or other players would. I guess that's because he's an official NHL Good Boy: unsmiling, zero personality, never talks back or complains, et. While I hate this kind of arbitrary enforcement, it's part of the value Weber brings, and may be especially useful in the playoffs).

That makes it 2 Habs players.  IMO, Markov gets a lot of breaks too.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I share Commandant's concerns, but let's wait and see if Weber can raise his defensive game over the remainder of the season before reaching definitive conclusions.

This is where you both seem out to lunch and lose me, or your expectations are simply unrealistic?:spamafote:

 

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  • 4 years later...
On 1/5/2017 at 11:34 AM, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I share Commandant's concerns, but let's wait and see if Weber can raise his defensive game over the remainder of the season before reaching definitive conclusions.

 

That Subban is hurt tends to lessen any pain Weber's regression may cause us. If PK turns out to be injury prone - which I doubt, but anything's possible - then that will certainly change the equation, since Weber is very durable. In this case we'd win the trade by default.

 

On the cap thing, I really think a lot of fans are showing a huge double-standard. Any team locking up a guy until age 41 at a major cap hit would be criticized, probably ridiculed, on this forum. But because it's 'our' team and the team is all in on Weber, we resort to all kinds of hypothetical scenarios that make it OK. Prima facie, this is a poor contract. Maybe it won't end up hurting us. Maybe Weber will have the good taste to retire before he becomes a cap rip-off. Maybe the cap will rise to a point where the hit is no big deal. Maybe some team will be enthusiastic about acquiring an elderly, overpaid defenceman.

 

Or - maybe not. The contract basically makes the Habs hostages of fortune for the last 4-5 years of the deal. But sometimes fortune smiles.

 

What bugs me about it, other than the loss of PK's entertainment value, is that, all other things being equal, we traded away 4 years of performance from our #1 d-man and shortened our Cup window. I say this because I don't see Weber as an upgrade on PK; therefore the trade was pointless. But what's done is done.  

 

(EDIT: one thing I notice about Weber, and that doesn't get commented on enough, is that the refs seem to give him a lot of breaks.He gets away with holding, interference, etc., that I doubt Subban or other players would. I guess that's because he's an official NHL Good Boy: unsmiling, zero personality, never talks back or complains, et. While I hate this kind of arbitrary enforcement, it's part of the value Weber brings, and may be especially useful in the playoffs).

I always like reading your posts - I don’t always agree, but I feel I do more than disagree …

 

but you often bring up the length of Weber’s contract as if it impacts the Habs - someone correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t the Preds on the hook if Weber retires?

 

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1 hour ago, revvvrob said:

I always like reading your posts - I don’t always agree, but I feel I do more than disagree …

 

but you often bring up the length of Weber’s contract as if it impacts the Habs - someone correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t the Preds on the hook if Weber retires?

 

Yes they are.

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14 hours ago, revvvrob said:

I always like reading your posts - I don’t always agree, but I feel I do more than disagree …

 

but you often bring up the length of Weber’s contract as if it impacts the Habs - someone correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t the Preds on the hook if Weber retires?

 

 

I am not an optimist that Weber will retire as long as he can take a regular shift. 

 

Funny to read that post from 2017 - Subban did indeed turn out to be injury-prone. The rest of it still seems accurate to me.

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2 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I am not an optimist that Weber will retire as long as he can take a regular shift. 

 

Funny to read that post from 2017 - Subban did indeed turn out to be injury-prone. The rest of it still seems accurate to me.

 

I tend to agree, he is a hockey player who will play as long as he can. Perhaps someone on the board more knowledgeable than me can clarify Weber's contract situation/cap recapture or whatever it is if he retires before it expires. I read before that Nashville or Philly is on the hook for it?  How does that work??  I don't know.

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 I thought it was funny when I noticed this thread was bumped.  

 

@revvvrob thx for asking for asking that question though.  I've been wondering the same since I saw @dlbalr make a comment about it earlier this season.  He mentioned that there is a rule that whoever initially signs a contract is somehow on the hook for it. 

 

I wanted to ask for a clarification at the time but I forgot.  I had never heard of that rule before and I have no idea how that works.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 I thought it was funny when I noticed this thread was bumped.  

 

@revvvrob thx for asking for asking that question though.  I've been wondering the same since I saw @dlbalr make a comment about it earlier this season.  He mentioned that there is a rule that whoever initially signs a contract is somehow on the hook for it. 

 

I wanted to ask for a clarification at the time but I forgot.  I had never heard of that rule before and I have no idea how that works.

Yes, Nashville is on the hook for this. It's not as bad as it was before, but it's still bad.

CBA changes may ease Shea Weber salary cap penalty fears for Preds—for now (msn.com)

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4 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 I thought it was funny when I noticed this thread was bumped.  

 

@revvvrob thx for asking for asking that question though.  I've been wondering the same since I saw @dlbalr make a comment about it earlier this season.  He mentioned that there is a rule that whoever initially signs a contract is somehow on the hook for it. 

 

I wanted to ask for a clarification at the time but I forgot.  I had never heard of that rule before and I have no idea how that works.

 

 

 

More than "who signed the contract" I think it is who accrued the benefit of paying more in salary than they had to take on the cap.

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46 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

More than "who signed the contract" I think it is who accrued the benefit of paying more in salary than they had to take on the cap.

 

Bingo.  Multiple teams can be hit with salary cap recapture - look at Florida and Vancouver with Luongo - both are getting hit through the end of next season.  Montreal still is in cap recapture territory through next season on Weber's deal although the hit wouldn't be massive at that point - $857,143 which would be amortizable over however many years are left on Weber's deal if he was to retire early. 

 

Edit: If he was to leave this summer, use the 2020-21 line which means they'd potentially be liable for $2,714,286 if he retired before the end of the contract.

 

image.png

 

Regarding the link that Tom posted, that does pertain to Nashville.  Below is how their original recapture was calculated:

 

image.png

 

The CBA change caps the annual charge at Weber's AAV of $7,857,143.  If he was to retire with one year left where the recapture is at $24.571M, they would have been hit with that full charge under the old system which would have been crippling.  The new CBA modifies that to charge it at $7,857,143 for three years and the rest the season after that, effectively allowing them to stretch the penalty to make it less punitive.

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So we can safely say the worst case scenario for the Habs is <$900,000 spread over a few years (or maybe in 1 year for worst case). 
 

and that’s if this is his last season as a Hab. 
 

after this season, Habs are completely off the hook should he retire in early (which I expect he would do - eventually). 

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26 minutes ago, revvvrob said:

So we can safely say the worst case scenario for the Habs is <$900,000 spread over a few years (or maybe in 1 year for worst case). 
 

and that’s if this is his last season as a Hab. 
 

after this season, Habs are completely off the hook should he retire in early (which I expect he would do - eventually). 

 

Evidently, I can't read my own chart. 

 

If Weber is off the roster after 2021-22 and retires early, it's the <$900,000 spread out over however many years are left.

If Weber is off the roster this summer and retires early, it's the ~$2.7M spread out over however many years are left.

 

Moral of the story for me, look at the notes I left myself in the original post when I did this a couple of years ago and not just the pictures...  Sorry about the mix up.

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