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Game #25 Devils vs Habs 7:30 Nov 28 2019


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2 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

is that you MB ?

 

😅

 

You know, I'm sure KK will evolve into a fine player. But he has 5 points in 18 games. He may become the #1C we crave, but that is anything but written in stone. This is sort of reflective of why I do not subscribe to the narrative that the Habs' pretty-good prospect pool of pretty-good players automatically means contention in three years. I've seen this movie over and over.

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20 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Kk easily had his best game of the season last night.  Not sure why thats something to discount.

 

A lone bright spot on a bad night.

 

Not something to discount at all. I was making a wider point. But yes, if KK can get on track, that will help. We also badly need Domi to unlock his game...badly.

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Domi has 4 points in his last three games so there is some hope there too. 

 

I really think the big issue is the defensive game here. 

 

Its strange, the losing streak started when Byron and Drouin went down, but it feels like its the defensive game not the offensive game that has fallen apart.  However, it is true that the defensive game is a 5-man unit. 

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43 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Kk easily had his best game of the season last night.  Not sure why thats something to discount.

 

A lone bright spot on a bad night.

I agree it was nice to see the young man play like he wasn't scared of the puck :)

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42 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Domi has 4 points in his last three games so there is some hope there too. 

 

I really think the big issue is the defensive game here. 

 

Its strange, the losing streak started when Byron and Drouin went down, but it feels like its the defensive game not the offensive game that has fallen apart.  However, it is true that the defensive game is a 5-man unit. 

Its the lack of depth on this team . I said this from the start that Bergevin needed to make a trade to fill in the hole left by Drouin. But I got ripped for it. Guys are playing more minutes then they should, which means they're more tired on the ice, which means defense break downs.

 

It happens every time they're injuries to this team.

 

4 line guys can't turn into 1st line guys out night.

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8 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Its the lack of depth on this team . I said this from the start that Bergevin needed to make a trade to fill in the hole left by Drouin. But I got ripped for it. Guys are playing more minutes then they should, which means they're more tired on the ice, which means defense break downs.

 

It happens every time they're injuries to this team.

 

4 line guys can't turn into 1st line guys out night.

KK basically took Drouin's minutes on the PP.  (why Weal is still getting 1st PP minutes is beyond me though)

You have  Weal and Hudon full time instead of Drouin and Byron.

And then you have Cousins playing 3 more minutes/game  than what he used to when Drouin and Byron were on the ice.

And Suzuki with some PK time to replace Byron's.

 

I Don't think that  #1 and #4 are a big deal, although Weal on the PP is killing me.

#2 hurts a lot. It's a HUGE drop of talent.

#3, meh.  He's not a big problem IMO.

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11 minutes ago, JoeLassister said:

KK basically took Drouin's minutes on the PP.  (why Weal is still getting 1st PP minutes is beyond me though)

You have  Weal and Hudon full time instead of Drouin and Byron.

And then you have Cousins playing 3 more minutes/game  than what he used to when Drouin and Byron were on the ice.

And Suzuki with some PK time to replace Byron's.

 

I Don't think that  #1 and #4 are a big deal, although Weal on the PP is killing me.

#2 hurts a lot. It's a HUGE drop of talent.

#3, meh.  He's not a big problem IMO.

He has no other option. Theirs a big deal in talent, 1st line and 4th line talent is different. Plus you're playing more minutes then you are use to playing which means you run. Out of gas faster. That's why theirs so many break downs on the defensive side of their game.

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2 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

He has no other option. Theirs a big deal in talent, 1st line and 4th line talent is different. Plus you're playing more minutes then you are use to playing which means you run. Out of gas faster. That's why theirs so many break downs on the defensive side of their game.

I disagree on many levels.


I disagree that playing Cousins an extra 3 mins makes him  THAT less efficient.  He's not 34 years old  about to retire.

I disagree that giving the extra 2 mins on the PP to Kotkaniemi makes him run out of gas at what, 19 years old.

I disagree that giving an extra 2 mins on the PK to Suzuki makes him run out of gas at what, 19 years old.

 

Most of the mental break downs I've seen this past week concernent defensemen anyway.  Bad pinching.  TONS of bad pinching.

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7 minutes ago, JoeLassister said:

I disagree on many levels.


I disagree that playing Cousins an extra 3 mins makes him  THAT less efficient.  He's not 34 years old  about to retire.

I disagree that giving the extra 2 mins on the PP to Kotkaniemi makes him run out of gas at what, 19 years old.

I disagree that giving an extra 2 mins on the PK to Suzuki makes him run out of gas at what, 19 years old.

 

Most of the mental break downs I've seen this past week concernent defensemen anyway.  Bad pinching.  TONS of bad pinching.

Well the 6 game losing streak and many break downs say otherwise.

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1 hour ago, Habsfan89 said:

Its the lack of depth on this team . I said this from the start that Bergevin needed to make a trade to fill in the hole left by Drouin. But I got ripped for it. Guys are playing more minutes then they should, which means they're more tired on the ice, which means defense break downs.

 

It happens every time they're injuries to this team.

 

4 line guys can't turn into 1st line guys out night.

 

But its the defensive side that has fallen apart.

 

You are so obsessed with proving your depth argument right... you are ignoring what is actually happening on the ice 

 

They scored 4 goals last night..  5 against the rangers... 4 in the first game against the Devils.  The depth of the offensive attack has been fine.

 

4 or 5 games with 2 extra minutes doesnt exhaust a player.  Maybe in 30-40 games of this happening but those extra minutes being an issue in 2 weeks... sorry not buying it.

 

And it doesnt make kulak and reilly and weber and petry make bad decisions on 2 on 1s.

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4 hours ago, Habber31 said:

I cannot belive how shit Petry has been lately. He's reverting back to two years ago. 

 

Julien has also reverted back in a sense, his "new" coaching style has changed; he now has this team funneling every puck to the net, whether its a quality chance or not. The Habs crash the net on every shot, so it ends up leading to odd man breaks the other way. It's making Price look like a bad goalie. 

 

Reilly and Kulak are trash. They're ahl defenseman, that are creating havok, for this team defensively. 

 

This team probably will bounce back, but this brutal streak will come back around again. 

 

Bergevin has built a "hay house" and it's get damn windy out 

The style of play we are seeing is what got julien fired in Boston and the turd Marchand becoming a 100 point player with a new coach.

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4 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I still say that an impact LD would make a big difference. To me, our defensive woes this season owe a lot to the regression of Kulak, addedAdd a strong LD and I'm pretty sure much of the defensive panic would gradually subside. The effect would ramify through the roster.


(...)

 

People here say, 'well, he tries, so that's all we can ask.' No, it isn't. Mike Reilly tries. And he sucks, because he is a fringe NHLer. We don't say 'give him a top-4 spot.' Why is 'trying' and regularly failing acceptable for a GM? 


I agree on the impact a solid LD would likely have.


I’m not sure whether I’m included in the “people here”. But the issue I have is that we don’t know what options or opportunities are open or available to Bergevin. No one here wants him to make a crap trade or sign another Alzner. But we don’t know who’s willing to trade which player, or what they would want in exchange. So while I want him to address the LD issue, I don’t have enough data to say whether the inaction is due to Bergevin’s risk-aversion or because there is nothing decent on offer.

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41 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

The style of play we are seeing is what got julien fired in Boston and the turd Marchand becoming a 100 point player with a new coach.

Exactly.

 

The shoot from everywhere mentality, doesn't work. It was the same thing a couple years ago, and everyone said "well look at the shots, we're obviously out playing other teams", that's not the case. 

 

These defensive zone lapses and odd man rushes are also exactly like 2 years ago. It's almost a spitting image, as to what was happening when this team completely shit the bed. 

 

As I said, the Habs probably will shake this slump, but it will keep arising. The defense is so ####ing awful 

 

 

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The idea that the Habs have a "shoot from everywhere" mentality, and that they are not getting into scoring positions is not supported by the stats or the heat maps. 

 

The number of high danger shots in the stats is high. 

 

The heat maps confirm this, showing that they get shots at well above the NHL average, and in fact are one of the top teams in the NHL at getting shots from the home plate area of the ice. 


There are legitimate complaints on Julien, specifically the PK... defensive zone coverage... and giving up odd man rushes. 

The idea that the Habs don't shoot from good areas?  Yeah, thats just not borne out in the numbers. 

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They shoot from everywhere. If it's a non-sense shooting area or not, they're probably taking the shot

 

They're playing for rebounds a lot and when they do this the defense crash the net. It leads to odd man breaks, the other way 

 

I didn't say anything about not shooting from high danger areas. I just see a lot of pucks thrown to the net, that are basically a turn over 

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:


I agree on the impact a solid LD would likely have.


I’m not sure whether I’m included in the “people here”. But the issue I have is that we don’t know what options or opportunities are open or available to Bergevin. No one here wants him to make a crap trade or sign another Alzner. But we don’t know who’s willing to trade which player, or what they would want in exchange. So while I want him to address the LD issue, I don’t have enough data to say whether the inaction is due to Bergevin’s risk-aversion or because there is nothing decent on offer.

 

Very reasonable. The trouble is, because we rarely have access to inside information, it would seem to prevent us from ever forming an opinion about a GM's performance.

 

So I prefer to take a somewhat blunter approach. Team X has structural weaknesses over a number of years. It is the responsibility of the GM to address those structural weaknesses. No one says he has to do it overnight. But the longer the problem goes unfixed, the more entitled we are to criticize the GM.  So, let's see. He took seven years to "fix" the problem at C (and given Domi's struggles in the dot and in general this season, even calling that a "fix" might be premature). His inability to address that problem did more than anything else to destroy the Subban-Pacioretty team which got to the semi-finals in 2014. Now he is well into Year Three of not having replaced Markov and thus leaving an abyssal hole at LD. At some point, it is logical to draw the conclusion that he simply isn't getting it done when it comes to addressing major, ongoing roster problems.

 

Zooming out to the bigger picture, if we miss the playoffs this year, that will be four of five seasons missed, and zero playoff rounds won in six years. That is a less granular reason for showing his finely-sculpted ass the door.

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27 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Very reasonable. The trouble is, because we rarely have access to inside information, it would seem to prevent us from ever forming an opinion about a GM's performance.

 

So I prefer to take a somewhat blunter approach. Team X has structural weaknesses over a number of years. It is the responsibility of the GM to address those structural weaknesses. No one says he has to do it overnight. But the longer the problem goes unfixed, the more entitled we are to criticize the GM. 

 

Yes, that's fair. The insufficient internal data makes it difficult to criticize (in)action this month, for example, or even a single season. But over the span of multiple seasons there should be options available to improve the team.

 

And Bergevin is definitely on the risk-averse end of the spectrum.

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54 minutes ago, Habber31 said:

Chiarots first attempted shot on net in the New Jersey game is what I'm talking about. Everyone is down low, and Chiarot throws a meaningless shot on net, that leads to a 2 on 1, going in the other direction .... Goal. 

 

Anecdotal evidence of one play does not mean that it is a systemic failure.  

 

Thats the great thing about the stats,

 

- they look at all plays, not just the ones that are memorable or result in goals. 

- they give you an ability to compare the habs vs other NHL teams. 

 

You don't have to rely on one play, which might just be a player making a mistake.  You get the ability to look at all the plays and from there you can see the system take shape. 

The idea that this is caused by where the habs are shooting from just isn't shown in the stats.  They are taking dangerous shots, shots that they should be taking. The idea that they are shooting from bad areas and that is what is causing the odd man rushes?  Thats just not shown in the numbers. 

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28 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Anecdotal evidence of one play does not mean that it is a systemic failure.  

 

Thats the great thing about the stats,

 

- they look at all plays, not just the ones that are memorable or result in goals. 

- they give you an ability to compare the habs vs other NHL teams. 

 

You don't have to rely on one play, which might just be a player making a mistake.  You get the ability to look at all the plays and from there you can see the system take shape. 

The idea that this is caused by where the habs are shooting from just isn't shown in the stats.  They are taking dangerous shots, shots that they should be taking. The idea that they are shooting from bad areas and that is what is causing the odd man rushes?  Thats just not shown in the numbers. 

That shot by Chiarot wasn't a mirage. It was a bad shot attempt, that was blocked. 

 

Do your stats show blocked shots that lead to odd man breaks, because the entire team collapses in anticipation of a distance shot?

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Yes, you can look at shots on net. 

 

or unblocked shot attempts (includes shots on net and those that go wide)

 

or filter for all shot attempts (includes blocked, shots that miss, and those on net). 

Again none of these filters show a systemic issue. 

The Chiarot shot happened, but that doesn't mean it wasn't just an isolated mistake by Chiarot and is something caused by the coaching.  Unless we see a sample that shows this happening often throughout the lineup, we can't call it a systemic issue. 

 

We aren't seeing that they are shooting at high rates from bad areas, or that they have a high number of shots blocked, or that any of this is happening at a number that would explain the defensive breakdowns. 
 

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