Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 44 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Yes, that's fair. The insufficient internal data makes it difficult to criticize (in)action this month, for example, or even a single season. But over the span of multiple seasons there should be options available to improve the team. And Bergevin is definitely on the risk-averse end of the spectrum. I don't dispute that MB has had time to address certain deficiencies and hasn't. I don't consider MB risk averse, the Subban trade and the Domi trade were not risk averse trades. The Alzner signing was high risk and turned out to be a bad risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habber31 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Commandant said: Yes, you can look at shots on net. or unblocked shot attempts (includes shots on net and those that go wide) or filter for all shot attempts (includes blocked, shots that miss, and those on net). Again none of these filters show a systemic issue. The Chiarot shot happened, but that doesn't mean it wasn't just an isolated mistake by Chiarot and is something caused by the coaching. Unless we see a sample that shows this happening often throughout the lineup, we can't call it a systemic issue. We aren't seeing that they are shooting at high rates from bad areas, or that they have a high number of shots blocked, or that any of this is happening at a number that would explain the defensive breakdowns. Show me the stats that go into detail on odd man breaks from blocked "distant" shots, when everyone else is crashing because they're trying to pull something out of nothing. #Grinding mentality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 They dont have a high number of blocked shots from bad aread. They do have a high number of shots on net from high danger areas. The idea that taking bad shots from low danger areas in order to get rebounds is part of their system is false. You can find the shot charts and the numbers, just look at corsica, hickeyviz, natural statrick, evolving wild and other advanced stats sites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habber31 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 So, I honestly don't know what I'm looking at. When it says Montreal is 30th in the league in Corsi For. What does that mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I don't dispute that MB has had time to address certain deficiencies and hasn't. I don't consider MB risk averse, the Subban trade and the Domi trade were not risk averse trades. The Alzner signing was high risk and turned out to be a bad risk. I suspect the Subban trade was not risky in MB's mind. It was about getting rid of a player MT and MB both hated in return for a player who was about as safely old-school as you can get. Arguably, his desire to trade PK in the first place was a symptom of "risk aversion" - not liking a player who didn't fit within proscribed, old-fashioned ideas about what players are supposed to be. Weber, on the other hand, is the walking incarnation of those ideas. The Alzner signing is similar. MB probably looked at Alzner and saw an old-school guy, reliable in his end, safe as houses in other words. It blew up in his face because at that point he, unlike every other human being on the planet, had not yet figured out that the game was moving toward speed and puck-moving. The Drouin trade was risky in hockey terms given that it removed our Markov replacement, but the risk was mitigated by the PR "win" of getting back a talented francophone. If I am correct that MB's primary interest is in keeping his job, that was not a risky trade, at least not in the short run. The Domi trade took cojones and paid off in spades. That's an exception to the rule, as I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Habber31 said: So, I honestly don't know what I'm looking at. When it says Montreal is 30th in the league in Corsi For. What does that mean? Montreal is 2nd in the league in Corsi for... not 30th.... (2nd highest... high being good) Montreal is 12th in the league in Corsi against.... (12th lowest... low being good) Montreal is 2nd in the league in Corsi% (Corsi for divided by corsi for + corsi against). (2nd highest... high being good) Montreal is 5th in scoring chances for... as well.... (high being good)... and 3rd in scoring chance % (high being good). so yes, they have lots of shots... but they also have a very high percentage of those shots being high danger chances. If they were taking too many bad shots from bad areas... the CF would be high (which it is) and the Scoring Chances would be low (it isn't).... which means the shots they are taking are good shots from good areas of the ice. They don't have too many shots that are blocked and leading to scoring chances against. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 43 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: I suspect the Subban trade was not risky in MB's mind. It was about getting rid of a player MT and MB both hated in return for a player who was about as safely old-school as you can get. Arguably, his desire to trade PK in the first place was a symptom of "risk aversion" - not liking a player who didn't fit within proscribed, old-fashioned ideas about what players are supposed to be. Weber, on the other hand, is the walking incarnation of those ideas. The Alzner signing is similar. MB probably looked at Alzner and saw an old-school guy, reliable in his end, safe as houses in other words. It blew up in his face because at that point he, unlike every other human being on the planet, had not yet figured out that the game was moving toward speed and puck-moving. The Drouin trade was risky in hockey terms given that it removed our Markov replacement, but the risk was mitigated by the PR "win" of getting back a talented francophone. If I am correct that MB's primary interest is in keeping his job, that was not a risky trade, at least not in the short run. The Domi trade took cojones and paid off in spades. That's an exception to the rule, as I see it. I think the Subban trade was risky from the perspective that trading a highly talented, high profile, popular with the fans (I think), player can come back and bite you. Looking back, it hasn't been risky as Subban seemed to have worn out his welcome in Nashville. I really like Weber and he was certainly a safe addition for the reasons you mentioned. I think the Drouin trade was risky as giving up a potential stud defenceman can make any GM look bad. I think even the francophone fans would prefer to have a stud Russian defenceman to an inconsistent francopohone forward. Who wouldn't want to have a young Markov again? The jury is still out on that one. Yup, Alzner was a mistake , MB messed up that one (perhaps his scouts can part of the blame), tying up the money he has for a player like Alzner was a risk but obviously a bad one. The point I was trying to make is that MB is not afraid to make a trade and has taken risks, more risks than many GM's in the league. Some have worked, some haven't, some we need more time to evaluate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habber31 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Commandant said: Montreal is 2nd in the league in Corsi for... not 30th.... (2nd highest... high being good) Montreal is 12th in the league in Corsi against.... (12th lowest... low being good) Montreal is 2nd in the league in Corsi% (Corsi for divided by corsi for + corsi against). (2nd highest... high being good) Montreal is 5th in scoring chances for... as well.... (high being good)... and 3rd in scoring chance % (high being good). so yes, they have lots of shots... but they also have a very high percentage of those shots being high danger chances. If they were taking too many bad shots from bad areas... the CF would be high (which it is) and the Scoring Chances would be low (it isn't).... which means the shots they are taking are good shots from good areas of the ice. They don't have too many shots that are blocked and leading to scoring chances against. I'm old school, but I do understand that Adavanvced stats are a part of the game these days, but watching the games needs to be taken into account too My complaint about firing tons of shots on net is more about this losing streak, as I had said in my first post, with Julien's game plan looking different. I'd be interested to see Adavanved stats for the past 6 games, if thats possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The last six games don't show any marked difference in the offensive end of the ice. They don't show the team taking more low danger shots. They don't show the team having more shots blocked. The team is giving up more high danger chances in their own end, but that isn't necessarily because of things changing at the offensive end. What is happening is giveaways (in all areas of the ice, including their own end), bad reads and coverage issues in their own zone (the problems of the PK all season, leaking into 5v5), and the forwards helping out less in the neutral zone and their own end, not covering up for the defence in the same ways they were before. That's what my own eye test shows, and its something that the numbers are confirming. The eye test is always useful. When the numbers match the eye test, then you are on the right track. When the numbers and the eye test don't match up, then one of them has gone wrong and you reevaluate. Its something that everyone who wants to learn the adv stats has to learn how to do. The stats are great for getting us past our pre conceived notions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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