Jump to content

Is our plan flawed?


REV-G

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

He is a high value asset that may bring in a 1st round pick from a desperate team.

we have a potential replacement in Suzuki and sufficient prospect depth at centre 

 

Keeping Domi is more valuable than a first round pick in the 20s.

 

Teams in thenlottery arent trading first rounders and even picks in the 5-15 range are no guarantee to be better than domi.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that trading Domi would be a mistake. We would never receive back more than we would be giving up in him (unless he was a key component for the 1st overall pick which is a pipe dream).

 

It is also a mistake to trade Weber and Petry. We need them both desperately and they are both key cogs for defensive stability. Weber's leadership and presence would be missed in a big way.

 

We can trade Tatar for a (potentially) amazing return and we can afford to do that because we have solid winger depth in the Habs organization.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Keeping Domi is more valuable than a first round pick in the 20s.

 

Teams in thenlottery arent trading first rounders and even picks in the 5-15 range are no guarantee to be better than domi.

My proposal is to trade Domi for a first round pick ant to packa Montreal's two first round picks to get the first pick overall. 


Like they say in the article, and my position:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2020/01/08/en-mode-vendeur

1) Tatar was acquired by VGK for a 1st a 2nd and a 3rd. He can yield a great return after showing to be a reliable offensive contributor in MTL

2) Petry's value is at his highest and would yield a good return at the risk of not having a prospect ready to step into his role

3) Domi, MB may play hardball on the next contract negotiations and he is not having a good season. Has lots of potential but is still inconsistent (I add he is similar to Drouin on the inconsistency). He may yield a good return of picks and prospects.

4) Lehkonen

 

I would trade Petry for sure and shop Domi. It sets the CH back a couple of years on their reset but it would yield a solid base for the reset to compete for years to come while not gutting the team. This could be a decent lineup after the trade:

Tatar-Danault-Gallagher

Drouin-Suzuki-Armia

Kovalchuk-Kotlaniemi-Lehkonen

Byron-Thompson-Cousins

Chiarot-Weber

Mete-Fleury

Scandella-Kulak/Folin

 

A middle of the pack, bubble team. But with the chance to draft Lafrenière :) 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I agree that trading Domi would be a mistake. We would never receive back more than we would be giving up in him (unless he was a key component for the 1st overall pick which is a pipe dream).

 

It is also a mistake to trade Weber and Petry. We need them both desperately and they are both key cogs for defensive stability. Weber's leadership and presence would be missed in a big way.

 

We can trade Tatar for a (potentially) amazing return and we can afford to do that because we have solid winger depth in the Habs organization.

I know, it is far fetched and will probably not happen; but I see this as the only way to get a star player like a McDavid or Mathews. Without a star like that, the CH is condemned to be a bubble team on the fringes of a Stanley cup run if only the goalie goes on a hot streak. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's boil this down to a simple truth.  Yes, the plan is flawed.  Why?  Our record.  It really is as simple as that.  You can throw all the excuses about injuries, guys having an off year, ect out the window because those are variables every other team deals with over the course of the season too. 

 

Bill Parcells said it best:  "You are what your record says you are".
 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems as a fanbase we're at our usual impasse. There are the "just a couple of missing pieces" people, and the blow it up and start over people. I have a couple of questions:

 

What exactly is a "retool"? Is it merely trading expiring contracts to acquire a couple of extra draft picks and hoping that having more picks increases the odds of someone developing? Move prospects in to those spots as they become available. It seems like that is what the Habs definition is, which would explain Molson's "8 year" comment. Whatever a retool is, the Canadiens don't seem good at it so far. Which leads to...

 

How often does a full blown rebuild happen, and how successful is it? What are the odds that gutting this current team and "starting over" results in a contending team? Do people REALLY think trading Weber, Price, Petry, etc will lead to a plethora of 1st round picks and prospects that would turn things around within 2-3 years? It doesn't seem teams are capable of absorbing those types of salaries with minimal salary coming back. I'd like to know logistically how this would work WITHOUT retaining a crap ton of salary.

 

What is the root problem of the Canadiens lack of high end NHL talent/prospects? Is it that Timmins is now in his 17th year with the Habs? Was it Lefebvre? Is it time for a turnover in the amateur scouting area? Other than a home run 2007, let's look at an average count of NHL games starting in 2008 (going from 08-15 gives age ranges of 22-29 YO)

 

  1. 2008 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 0 (No first rounder) 
  2. 2009 - Number of Picks - 8  Total NHL games played - 141 Most games/player Dumont -90 (1st rounder Leblanc, picked 18)
  3. 2010 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 588 Most games/player Gallagher -528 (1st rounder Tinordi, picked 22)
  4. 2011 - Number of Picks - 7  Total NHL games played - 366 Most games/player Beaulieu -353 (1st rounder Beaulieu, picked 17)
  5. 2012 - Number of Picks - 7  Total NHL games played - 643 Most games/player Galchenyuk - 524 (1st rounder Galchenyuk, picked 3)
  6. 2013 - Number of Picks - 8  Total NHL games played - 769 Most games/player Lehkonen - 265 (1st rounder McCarron, picked 25)
  7. 2014 - Number of Picks - 6  Total NHL games played - 58 Most games/player Scherbak - 37 (1st rounder Scherbak, picked 26)
  8. 2015 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 48 Most games/player Juulsen - 44 (1st rounder Juulsen, picked 26)

For those core years, the Habs have yielded two "core" players, and a solid player in Lehkonen. A lucky 5th rounder in Gallagher and a bad 3rd overall in Chucky that has turned into Domi. Four of those predate Bergevin. A total of TWO first round picks in 8 years are current NHLers (including Beaulieu). It's too early (for me) to rate the last three drafts, but basically, we haven't had a "good" year that has produced more than one regular NHLer in 13 years. I don't have any faith in our amateur scouting/development department that hasn't been any good in that long.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think i read that the scouting department has had the same leaders for closer to 15 years, they are not good 

 

Im of the opinion cleaning house in management, scouting and let the new GM decide CJ fate. 

 

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Chris said:

I think i read that the scouting department has had the same leaders for closer to 15 years, they are not good 

 

Im of the opinion cleaning house in management, scouting and let the new GM decide CJ fate. 

 

 

I disagree I think  it falls on the GM, he's the one who Tell's his scouting department what to look for in players they're going to draft. 

Case in point Bergevin believed that the old school way still won you games, big gritty players. But that turned out bad for this organization as we drafted guys with zero talent for today's NHL.

 

We are feeling those effect's now as we have no NHL ready talent in our system.  That's why when we get injuries to key players our play drop's off big time, because the talent drops off.

 

But since the reset Bergevin changed his way of thinking and started to draft talent, speed and players that are suited for today's NHL. Our last 2 drafts have been great because of it.  But these player's won't be NHL ready for 3-4 years or so.

 

Which is why I think a full rebuild of our team is needed. So by the time these players are NHL ready we would have the depth that we need to compete.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The scouting department has been there since well before MB, 

 

Results dont lie, they have the fewest drafted players playing on the team 

 

A full rebuild is fine, why do it with a scouting department and GM who are failures? Makes no sense 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Chris said:

The scouting department has been there since well before MB, 

 

Results dont lie, they have the fewest drafted players playing on the team 

 

A full rebuild is fine, why do it with a scouting department and GM who are failures? Makes no sense 

Bergevin traded a lot of the players we drafted that were on this team.

 

When Bob was GM our team was full of players we drafted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Chris said:

And yet the results were the same, poor drafting

Not poor drafting just too much of the same type of players.

 

After Price, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Subban, made the NHL full time and we became contenders we stopped drafting. We started using the draft picks to find those players that would put us over the top. But we couldn't do it, this is the result of it now. We missed on a lot of first round picks Also but GM always has final say in all draft picks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Habsfan89 said:

Bergevin traded a lot of the players we drafted that were on this team.

 

When Bob was GM our team was full of players we drafted.

 

Really? our 2009 team of Gomez, Cammalleri, Gionta, Metropolit, Hamrlik, Spacek, Moen, Gorges, etc was "full" of drafted players? Go back and look at that draft list, from 08-15 4 current full times NHLers exist out of 51 picks. Two of those four are still on the team. The other two are Beaulieu and Galchenyuk, who are both on at least their second team since being traded by Montreal.

 

16 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I disagree I think  it falls on the GM, he's the one who Tell's his scouting department what to look for in players they're going to draft. 

Case in point Bergevin believed that the old school way still won you games, big gritty players. But that turned out bad for this organization as we drafted guys with zero talent for today's NHL.

 

We are feeling those effect's now as we have no NHL ready talent in our system.  That's why when we get injuries to key players our play drop's off big time, because the talent drops off.

 

But since the reset Bergevin changed his way of thinking and started to draft talent, speed and players that are suited for today's NHL. Our last 2 drafts have been great because of it.  But these player's won't be NHL ready for 3-4 years or so.

 

Which is why I think a full rebuild of our team is needed. So by the time these players are NHL ready we would have the depth that we need to compete.

 

Your recency bias is showing. One player in the last 2 drafts has played in the NHL. Romanov MIGHT be the second next year. Nothing guarantees any of the other players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, huzer said:

It seems as a fanbase we're at our usual impasse. There are the "just a couple of missing pieces" people, and the blow it up and start over people. I have a couple of questions:

 

What exactly is a "retool"? Is it merely trading expiring contracts to acquire a couple of extra draft picks and hoping that having more picks increases the odds of someone developing? Move prospects in to those spots as they become available. It seems like that is what the Habs definition is, which would explain Molson's "8 year" comment. Whatever a retool is, the Canadiens don't seem good at it so far. Which leads to...

 

How often does a full blown rebuild happen, and how successful is it? What are the odds that gutting this current team and "starting over" results in a contending team? Do people REALLY think trading Weber, Price, Petry, etc will lead to a plethora of 1st round picks and prospects that would turn things around within 2-3 years? It doesn't seem teams are capable of absorbing those types of salaries with minimal salary coming back. I'd like to know logistically how this would work WITHOUT retaining a crap ton of salary.

 

What is the root problem of the Canadiens lack of high end NHL talent/prospects? Is it that Timmins is now in his 17th year with the Habs? Was it Lefebvre? Is it time for a turnover in the amateur scouting area? Other than a home run 2007, let's look at an average count of NHL games starting in 2008 (going from 08-15 gives age ranges of 22-29 YO)

 

  1. 2008 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 0 (No first rounder) 
  2. 2009 - Number of Picks - 8  Total NHL games played - 141 Most games/player Dumont -90 (1st rounder Leblanc, picked 18)
  3. 2010 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 588 Most games/player Gallagher -528 (1st rounder Tinordi, picked 22)
  4. 2011 - Number of Picks - 7  Total NHL games played - 366 Most games/player Beaulieu -353 (1st rounder Beaulieu, picked 17)
  5. 2012 - Number of Picks - 7  Total NHL games played - 643 Most games/player Galchenyuk - 524 (1st rounder Galchenyuk, picked 3)
  6. 2013 - Number of Picks - 8  Total NHL games played - 769 Most games/player Lehkonen - 265 (1st rounder McCarron, picked 25)
  7. 2014 - Number of Picks - 6  Total NHL games played - 58 Most games/player Scherbak - 37 (1st rounder Scherbak, picked 26)
  8. 2015 - Number of Picks - 5  Total NHL games played - 48 Most games/player Juulsen - 44 (1st rounder Juulsen, picked 26)

For those core years, the Habs have yielded two "core" players, and a solid player in Lehkonen. A lucky 5th rounder in Gallagher and a bad 3rd overall in Chucky that has turned into Domi. Four of those predate Bergevin. A total of TWO first round picks in 8 years are current NHLers (including Beaulieu). It's too early (for me) to rate the last three drafts, but basically, we haven't had a "good" year that has produced more than one regular NHLer in 13 years. I don't have any faith in our amateur scouting/development department that hasn't been any good in that long.

 

 

On the flip side:

1. 2008 - I don't have Gainey's details

2. 2009 - I don't have Gainey's details

3. 2010 - PG - drafted Tinordi and traded away pics #32, #87

4. 2011 - PG - drafted Beaulieu and traded away #47, #50, #77 then was fired for ineptitude (and screwing the prospect depth)

5. 2012 - MB - drafted Galchenyuk (bust at the NHL level) and Colberg, Thrower and Bozon (which retired due to medical condition)  

6. 2013 to 2015 - MB - the CH had good seasons and picked 25th (McCarron), 26th (Scherbak) and #26th (Juulsen) 

   => in 2013 he got three NHLers: delaRose, Lehkonne and Andrigetto and traded for Drouin and Domi later

   => in 2014 he traded #57 and Colberg for Vanek, and traded #87 and #117 for Lernout

   => in 2015 he traded #57 and #117 for Petry

9. 2016 - MB - I would add this season to the list. He drafted Sergachev but traded away #39 and #45 for Shaw. But it is the year he got Weber, Byron, Danault and Shaw. 

 

That is why I am saying that the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons where they drafted later coupled with all the times they traded 2nd round picks have hurt the depth of the Canadiens. They do not have a star player and unless we trade our best trade chips now we will not have a star player any time soon.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, huzer said:

 

Really? our 2009 team of Gomez, Cammalleri, Gionta, Metropolit, Hamrlik, Spacek, Moen, Gorges, etc was "full" of drafted players? Go back and look at that draft list, from 08-15 4 current full times NHLers exist out of 51 picks. Two of those four are still on the team. The other two are Beaulieu and Galchenyuk, who are both on at least their second team since being traded by Montreal.

 

 

Your recency bias is showing. One player in the last 2 drafts has played in the NHL. Romanov MIGHT be the second next year. Nothing guarantees any of the other players.

Romanov 

Caufield 

Poehling 

Lehkonen 

Kotkaniemi 

Primeau 

Brook 

Mete

Fleury 

 

How's that being bias 🤔?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Romanov (2018)

Caufield (2019)

Poehling (2017)

Lehkonen (2013)

Kotkaniemi (2018)

Primeau  (2017)

Brook (2017)

Mete (2016)

Fleury (2017)

 

How's that being bias 🤔?

 

 

 

Sorry for being literal. You literally said "the last 2 drafts have been great" then list 5 guys taken prior. Of your list, only Romanov, Caufield, Kotkaniemi come from the last 2 drafts. And again, only 1 has played in the NHL, and has not been a world beater by any stretch. That said, if 3 of 21 picks from the last two drafts become NHLers, that's a better conversion rate than they've had historically since 2008.

 

Recency bias has happened with every draft, with most fans. I remember when Collberg was a steal, shoulda been a 1st rounder. I remember when De La Rose and Fucale were first rounders we got in the 2nd round. Heck, even pundits like Button when doing a 2012 redraft were saying Galenchyuk would've been the 1st OA pick a couple of years after the draft.

 

Instead of improving the scouting department, it appears as though our drafting strategy is simply to increase the amount of darts we're throwing at the dart board. More picks isn't a bad thing, but I'd prefer if the staff making those picks was better at their job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

On the flip side:

1. 2008 - I don't have Gainey's details

2. 2009 - I don't have Gainey's details

3. 2010 - PG - drafted Tinordi and traded away pics #32, #87

4. 2011 - PG - drafted Beaulieu and traded away #47, #50, #77 then was fired for ineptitude (and screwing the prospect depth)

5. 2012 - MB - drafted Galchenyuk (bust at the NHL level) and Colberg, Thrower and Bozon (which retired due to medical condition)  

6. 2013 to 2015 - MB - the CH had good seasons and picked 25th (McCarron), 26th (Scherbak) and #26th (Juulsen) 

   => in 2013 he got three NHLers: delaRose, Lehkonne and Andrigetto and traded for Drouin and Domi later

   => in 2014 he traded #57 and Colberg for Vanek, and traded #87 and #117 for Lernout

   => in 2015 he traded #57 and #117 for Petry

9. 2016 - MB - I would add this season to the list. He drafted Sergachev but traded away #39 and #45 for Shaw. But it is the year he got Weber, Byron, Danault and Shaw. 

 

That is why I am saying that the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons where they drafted later coupled with all the times they traded 2nd round picks have hurt the depth of the Canadiens. They do not have a star player and unless we trade our best trade chips now we will not have a star player any time soon.

 

 

After we became contenders for the cup our drafting went down hill, in large part because we were draft at the bottom of the draft its always hit or miss from 20-32.

 

Our picks from 3-15 in first rounds have been good.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, huzer said:

 

 

Sorry for being literal. You literally said "the last 2 drafts have been great" then list 5 guys taken prior. Of your list, only Romanov, Caufield, Kotkaniemi come from the last 2 drafts. And again, only 1 has played in the NHL, and has not been a world beater by any stretch. That said, if 3 of 21 picks from the last two drafts become NHLers, that's a better conversion rate than they've had historically since 2008.

 

Recency bias has happened with every draft, with most fans. I remember when Collberg was a steal, shoulda been a 1st rounder. I remember when De La Rose and Fucale were first rounders we got in the 2nd round. Heck, even pundits like Button when doing a 2012 redraft were saying Galenchyuk would've been the 1st OA pick a couple of years after the draft.

 

Instead of improving the scouting department, it appears as though our drafting strategy is simply to increase the amount of darts we're throwing at the dart board. More picks isn't a bard thing, but I'd prefer if the staff making those picks was better at their job.

Yes  since the reset which I do believe is the last 2 drafts we have jumped into the top i think 5 in terms of prospects.

 

But still we have players on our team we have drafted that should be regulars for a long time. Thats if we don't trade them.

 

I thought we should of traded that 3rd pick Instead of drafting galchenyuk.

 

 

 

And this goes back to i think our prospects didn't pan out because a lot of it was player development, more so then our drafting. Our player development has been really poor here in Montreal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I said since the reset which I do believe is the last 2 drafts we have jumped into the top i think 5 in terms of prospects.

 

I thought we should of traded that 3rd pick Instead of drafting galchenyuk.

 

 

 

And this goes back to i think our prospects didn't pan out because a lot of it was player development, more so then our drafting. Our player development has been really poor here in Montreal.

Before Joël Bouchard, yes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I thought we should of traded that 3rd pick Instead of drafting galchenyuk.

Other than knee injury, he was an easy choice. He last bit in OHL he was at a 2point/game pace.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/8/2020 at 11:48 AM, Chris said:

Droiun? 

 

He has had a good 12 game stretch, other than that he has been average 

He has been constantly improving 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct me if I am wrong but when we draft from 20-32 we have a zero success rate in drafting players in the first round. But when we draft from under 20 meaning 3-19 (never had a 1st or 2nd)  we do have a pretty high success rate in drafting players in the first round.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...