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Canadiens vs Jets 9:00pm Mar 17 2021


Trizzak

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Just now, GHT120 said:

Hard to trade a guy with two more years on a flat-cap-unfriendly contract unless you add some not insignificant sweetener ... but I am entirely not against the idea

Byron is better then all of the above and he had a pretty good game. Missed a bunch of chances but props for creating said chances. Hes a very good 4th liner

 

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

The good news is that Tatar/Danault/Gally showed real signs of life last night. In fact, they were excellent. The key will be to *build* on that, because past improvement from that trio this season has tended to be a blip rather than a trend. 

 

Also good news is that Price seems to have rounded into form over this road trip.

 

If we can get the key vets consistently performing up to their career norms, a higher portion of Ws will follow. Which is not to claim that the D will not continue to be a problem, because it will.

Price has been good since the coaching change. Weber has not... that pair yesterday I was not a fan of. Weber forced to carry the puck... leave the kid with Weber and give the lions share of minutes to petry and Edmundson. 

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1 minute ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

... Hes a very (?) good, but overpaid, 4th liner

 

Guess it depends on how strongly one defines "very" ... IMO at this point of his career he is a below-average 3rd liner who is very good on the 4th line

 

My biggest issue with Byron is his cap hit for his role, and that the cap hit carries forward for two more years ... I could perhaps see Yzerman having a role for him on a rebuilding team ... for the right price ... 

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51 minutes ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

Byron is better then all of the above and he had a pretty good game. Missed a bunch of chances but props for creating said chances. Hes a very good 4th liner

 

I would say he is a good 3rd line winger.

Once Armia, Tatar & Lehkonen are jettisoned this summer, he may move up next year.

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1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

Sergachev currently plays LD on TB 3rd pair.... he is nowhere near a #1 at this point in his career. Would he be a better fit on MTL 1st pair? Who knows

They also have  the equivalent of  Weber-Petry ahead of him on LD in Hedman and McDonagh.  (even better if you ask me)

My point being :  if he was RH,  he would probably play with Hedman over Rutta and Cernak.

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3 hours ago, DON said:

I would say he is a good 3rd line winger.

Once Armia, Tatar & Lehkonen are jettisoned this summer, he may move up next year.


Wow you think all 3 will be gone?

 

Lehkonen seems to be on the naughty list for some reason so maybe. 
 

Im not an Armia fan but he is heavily used so I think coach/gm like him. I have no idea what he should be paid though 

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34 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


Wow you think all 3 will be gone?

 

Lehkonen seems to be on the naughty list for some reason so maybe. 
 

Im not an Armia fan but he is heavily used so I think coach/gm like him. I have no idea what he should be paid though 

 

Personally, I am fairly high on Armia.  If the Habs let 2 of those 3 players go I'd keep Armia for sure.  Why?  He can potentially be signed for the cheapest out of the 3, and he could have the highest output.  Tatar is close to a 30 g scorer, and I believe Armia could be as well. 

 

Its still unknown what Armia's true value is, so he could potentially be signed for $2-3 mil less than what he's worth.  ex:  Tatar makes over $5 mil and will probably want a raise which will put him close to $6mil/yr.  However, Armia could probably be re-signed for $2.5-3/yr and get 55-65 pts like Tatar does.  ex:  In the scenario of Tatar for 2 yrs @ $12mil vs Armia 5 yrs @ 12.5-15mil I'd keep Armia.  

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Armia is 27 years old and has never come close to 30 goals in his 6 seasons. We should not sign re-sign him based on an optimistic assessment of his "potential" but rather on the assumption that his past performance is a likely predictor of his future performance.

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26 minutes ago, habs#4,9,10,33 said:

Anyone resigning with the Habs needs to take a pay cut, Danault with a respectful raise. ... Flat cap for two more years. 

But what is respectful ... nowhere near what was offered last fall ... at this point, I don't see more than $3.75M (25% raise) ... sucks for him that he didn't take the offer last fall, good for the Habs

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10 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Armia is 27 years old and has never come close to 30 goals in his 6 seasons. We should not sign re-sign him based on an optimistic assessment of his "potential" but rather on the assumption that his past performance is a likely predictor of his future performance.

Those words should apply to (almost!) every contract we sign!

 

Most big-name UFA contracts are hugely optimistic, and later analysis usually confirms that most teams grossly overpaid to sign the UFAs, relative to the value they actually brought to the team. Toffoli, fortunately, does not appear to fit this particular mold!

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34 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

 

Personally, I am fairly high on Armia.  If the Habs let 2 of those 3 players go I'd keep Armia for sure.  Why?  He can potentially be signed for the cheapest out of the 3, and he could have the highest output.  Tatar is close to a 30 g scorer, and I believe Armia could be as well. 

 

Its still unknown what Armia's true value is, so he could potentially be signed for $2-3 mil less than what he's worth.  ex:  Tatar makes over $5 mil and will probably want a raise which will put him close to $6mil/yr.  However, Armia could probably be re-signed for $2.5-3/yr and get 55-65 pts like Tatar does.  ex:  In the scenario of Tatar for 2 yrs @ $12mil vs Armia 5 yrs @ 12.5-15mil I'd keep Armia.  


I’m kind of back and forth on Armia. He is amazing on the boards and he clearly has hands. At the same time he has average speed, average hockey smarts and is very inconsistent. 
 

I can’t see a world where Tatar is resigned. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

But what is respectful ... nowhere near what was offered last fall ... at this point, I don't see more than $3.75M (25% raise) ... sucks for him that he didn't take the offer last fall, good for the Habs

 

Im terrified of a 6 million contract and I think that would be a mistake. Ducharme and Bergevin both clearly like him though

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8 hours ago, Pepsi said:

Been saying the same of Byron for a while. Not sure what Byron has on GM to keep him with the team.

 

He's cleared waivers twice so technically, anyone could have had him for free.  That's not the GM loving a player but rather no one else wanting his contract.

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54 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

He's cleared waivers twice so technically, anyone could have had him for free.  That's not the GM loving a player but rather no one else wanting his contract.

Noted.  At least don't play him in OT. Play the offensive players as others have said. 

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21 minutes ago, Pepsi said:

Noted.  At least don't play him in OT. Play the offensive players as others have said. 

Or just keep him down and save the cap space.

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5 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


Wow you think all 3 will be gone?

 

Lehkonen seems to be on the naughty list for some reason so maybe. 
 

Im not an Armia fan but he is heavily used so I think coach/gm like him. I have no idea what he should be paid though 

I dont know; Lehkonen like you say, Tatar likely looking for a good contract that Habs likely wont offer, Armia is on a crowded wing, i think will sign Danault and will need caproom.

 

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29 minutes ago, DON said:

I dont know; Lehkonen like you say, Tatar likely looking for a good contract that Habs likely wont offer, Armia is on a crowded wing, i think will sign Danault and will need caproom.

 

A crowded wing? Apart from Armia, there is Gallagher, Anderson and ... maybe Perry. Now, if either Caufield or Ylonen is ready to move up, the situation changes. But it's not clear yet that either one of them will be ready.

 

I don't foresee moving Toffoli back to the right side, given how well he's done, and given that we don't have any excess of talent on that side. Apart from Toffoli, there is Tatar (probably gone), Drouin, Lehkonen (maybe gone) and Byron.

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4 hours ago, DON said:

I dont know; Lehkonen like you say, Tatar likely looking for a good contract that Habs likely wont offer, Armia is on a crowded wing, i think will sign Danault and will need caproom.

 

Not sure Tatar will make bank elsewhere though. He's beloved in the dressing room, and might want to stay. A deal might make sense. I expect Byron will just get more time in the top 9 instead next season.

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7 hours ago, Trizzak said:

Not sure Tatar will make bank elsewhere though. He's beloved in the dressing room, and might want to stay. A deal might make sense. I expect Byron will just get more time in the top 9 instead next season.

Do you think Tatar would actually accept a contract substantially less than he is making now? Or just one without an increase?

 

Tom

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11 hours ago, tomh009 said:

A crowded wing? Apart from Armia, there is Gallagher, Anderson and ... maybe Perry. Now, if either Caufield or Ylonen is ready to move up, the situation changes. But it's not clear yet that either one of them will be ready.

Gallagher-Anderson are 1-2.

Caufield plays RW, so #3 RW at worst.

So dont really need Armia at all, do they, unless he wants 4th and some 3rd line duties at a cheap cost, just seems his days as a Hab are numbered.

Not saying Ylonen will make the jump yet, but he has looked OK in AHL so far with 9pts in 14gms.

 

Anyways, dont see strong need to keep Armia, but if he is resigned, is fine by me, as he does average 16g 31pts/82gms and is only 27, but assume he wouldnt want 4th line minutes neither.

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40 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

If Caufield is ready, the opening is 4RW, you are correct. The question is whether Caufield will indeed be ready to step directly into the NHL.

 

It would be quite foolish to bet on this IMHO.

 

As for Tatar, the reason for re-signing him would be that he has been a consistent 20-goal guy. The reasons for not re-signing him are that he is 30, and that he has displayed a very troubling tendency to perform worse as the pressure rises. So, playoff performance - terrible. Performance in a contract year - terrible. Aging. 

 

Given a tight cap, we should definitely let him walk. 

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4 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

It would be quite foolish to bet on this IMHO.

 

As for Tatar, the reason for re-signing him would be that he has been a consistent 20-goal guy. The reasons for not re-signing him are that he is 30, and that he has displayed a very troubling tendency to perform worse as the pressure rises. So, playoff performance - terrible. Performance in a contract year - terrible. Aging. 

 

Given a tight cap, we should definitely let him walk. 

 

Since I started trying to figure out who may be protected for the Seattle expansion draft 2 years ago, I've always assumed that Tatar would not be offered a contract. For the reasons you mention and based on the prospects coming up.

The prospects are not yet ready, but the signing of Toffoli made Tatar redundant.

 

I've been wanting the Habs to trade Lehkonen for at least a year. I like him, despite the fact he doesn't score. He is better than DelaRose was but with as poor goal scoring ability.

Vejdemo could fill his spot, at a lower cap hit.

 

Armia, would be a great 4th liner once the Habs get to being a cup contender. I would keep him. He play up the line up when injuries happen.

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17 hours ago, GHT120 said:

But what is respectful ... nowhere near what was offered last fall ... at this point, I don't see more than $3.75M (25% raise) ... sucks for him that he didn't take the offer last fall, good for the Habs


I agree except for your offer on $. There will be a boat load of teams willing  to pay a little bit more for a very good 3 line Center. 
 

I’m thinking a respectful offer on both sides now is 4.5m at 6years. Would not hesitate or be concerned about signing him long term at 6 years. He just turned 28 and this would put him at 34 at end of contract or trading him with 1-2 years left of that contract. We have to give him term if were saving on cap hit.... He’s a great team/ locker player and experience defensively right now and that level of play will only excel to a higher level with more years under his belt, besides he’s a great role model for the younger centres on this team. 

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