GDT Canadiens vs Jets 9:00pm Mar 17 2021

[dlbalr]

3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Do you think Tatar would actually accept a contract substantially less than he is making now? Or just one without an increase?

 

Tom

 

I don't think he gets $5.3M on the open market (which is what his full AAV is including Vegas' portion).  Salaries were depressed in free agency back in October and I see no reason to think that won't happen here with some teams in worse shape now than they were then.  Look back at the Toffoli deal (4/17) - that's probably around the range he'll have to settle for if he wants a long-term deal. 

 

Armia's in the same boat too for what it's worth - I think he's looking at a small dip to maybe $2.25M per.

[tomh009]

17 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I don't think he gets $5.3M on the open market (which is what his full AAV is including Vegas' portion).  Salaries were depressed in free agency back in October and I see no reason to think that won't happen here with some teams in worse shape now than they were then.  Look back at the Toffoli deal (4/17) - that's probably around the range he'll have to settle for if he wants a long-term deal. 

 

Armia's in the same boat too for what it's worth - I think he's looking at a small dip to maybe $2.25M per.

Thanks ... I was thinking Armia might be looking at a small increase given that his current contract is an RFA one. But maybe not!

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

You arent going to keep Armia as a fourth liner.  Hes going to get more money on the market than what a fourth liner makes. 

 

He will be top 9 somewhere.  Montreal or elsewhere.

And I do think we need a 3RW from somewhere. Counting on Caufield is risky, and Perry is really a 4RW. Ylonen? Probably not yet, either. So, need to pay to play.

[dlbalr]

8 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Thanks ... I was thinking Armia might be looking at a small increase given that his current contract is an RFA one. But maybe not!

 

I come back to Jesper Fast's deal with Carolina which was a death knoll for any other bottom-six guy.  He signed for $2M for three years and anyone looking for more than that for a similar role is going to get that contract thrown in their face.  The top players will get their money and it will be the back of the roster players who feel the squeeze the most.  I could see Armia getting a bit more than Fast given the size factor but it wouldn't be much more than that.

[tomh009]

19 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

I come back to Jesper Fast's deal with Carolina which was a death knoll for any other bottom-six guy.  He signed for $2M for three years and anyone looking for more than that for a similar role is going to get that contract thrown in their face.  The top players will get their money and it will be the back of the roster players who feel the squeeze the most.  I could see Armia getting a bit more than Fast given the size factor but it wouldn't be much more than that.

Yeah, Armia has been scoring a bit more than Fast for the past two years, but not all that much more.

 

But, does Tatar still get a top-six contract given that his scoring isn't much more than Armia's level now?

[Trizzak]

4 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Do you think Tatar would actually accept a contract substantially less than he is making now? Or just one without an increase?

 

Tom

I doubt he gets offered more than the Toffoli contract by anyone in the league. If he loves Montreal there still might be a fit here.

 

Triz

[JoeLassister]

4 hours ago, tomh009 said:

If Caufield is ready, the opening is 4RW, you are correct. The question is whether Caufield will indeed be ready to step directly into the NHL.

 

3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

It would be quite foolish to bet on this IMHO.

 

 

It would not be THAT foolish.   DeBrincat made it.  Caufield might just make it as well.

[DON]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

But, does Tatar still get a top-six contract given that his scoring isn't much more than Armia's level now?

Career 24g/82gms and coming off back to back 20+goals...not the same as an Armia at all.

 

[tomh009]

27 minutes ago, DON said:

Career 24g/82gms and coming off back to back 20+goals...not the same as an Armia at all.

Don't just look at career numbers for a 30yo player -- the questions is, what have you done for me recently, and what can I count on you doing for me next year? If the player's performance drops off, he's not likely going to get a monster contract based on just his MVP season in 2015-16 or whatever.

 

Tatar is on pace for 15 goals/82 this season. How many GMs will be willing to pay him based on 24/82 in the flat cap era? Would you sign a new contract with Weber or Price based on his career numbers, or based on his recent performance?

[DON]

16 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Don't just look at career numbers for a 30yo player -- the questions is, what have you done for me recently, and what can I count on you doing for me next year? If the player's performance drops off, he's not likely going to get a monster contract based on just his MVP season in 2015-16 or whatever.

Recently had back to back 20+ goal seasons, Habs leading scorer (granted; that is always a low bar) and 120pts over those recent 2 years. Armia 53pts over last 2 years.

 

But, many also bitched endlessly about Pacioretty recently doing anything, every year..."He does nothing when not scoring and hasnt scored in 15games, trade him for a bag of pucks!"

[Sir_Boagalott]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Recently had back to back 20+ goal seasons, Habs leading scorer (granted; that is always a low bar) and 120pts over those recent 2 years.

Apple

1 hour ago, DON said:

Armia 53pts over last 2 years.

 

 

Orange

 

If the Orange was grown in the same location as the Apple might it be just as sweet?

 

Am I really the only 1 that realizes Tatar plays on the top line with the Habs top scorer vs  a player on the 3rd-4th line that isnt getting top minutes with top linemates?  Tatar is really a 25 goal guy (he got 29g once).  However, its unarguable that Tatar has been given way more opportunity than Armia. 

 

Armia was on the Jets who made it to the 1/4 finals, and was 4th line getting 8-10mins/game and scored 12. 

 

23 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Armia is 27 years old and has never come close to 30 goals in his 6 seasons. We should not sign re-sign him based on an optimistic assessment of his "potential" but rather on the assumption that his past performance is a likely predictor of his future performance.

 

Honestely, I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

Every year that Armia is given more TOI he scores more goals than the previous year.  Armia was on pace for 22 last year.  Its not unrealistic to think he could get 3 more g's to hit Tatars 25g/yr.  That wouldnt even be Armia playing on the top line with the top scorer either. 

 

Even paying Armia $3mil/year wouldnt be resigning him based on optimistic potential.  It would be giving him what he is currently known to at least be worth, with hope that he becomes more, which he has shown every year.  Also, it would be a movable contract if Habs need to ditch him after 2-3 years. 

 

 

[DON]

29 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Every year that Armia is given more TOI he scores more goals than the previous year. 

I call BS, 

Armia 14:18/gm;  15g/yr, 28yr old

Tatar 14:38/gm   25g/yr, 30yr old

 

And you think Armia just needs top six minutes to bloom...so which of Anderson or Gallagher gets dropped to 3rd line, to make room for the Finn sniper?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

He's not going to score 30. Ever.

 

He is not a top-6 FW except when on his little hot streaks.

 

He is a very good third liner.

 

Move along.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Apple

 

Orange

 

If the Orange was grown in the same location as the Apple might it be just as sweet?

 

Am I really the only 1 that realizes Tatar plays on the top line with the Habs top scorer vs  a player on the 3rd-4th line that isnt getting top minutes with top linemates?  Tatar is really a 25 goal guy (he got 29g once).  However, its unarguable that Tatar has been given way more opportunity than Armia. 

 

Armia was on the Jets who made it to the 1/4 finals, and was 4th line getting 8-10mins/game and scored 12. 

 

 

Honestely, I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

Every year that Armia is given more TOI he scores more goals than the previous year.  Armia was on pace for 22 last year.  Its not unrealistic to think he could get 3 more g's to hit Tatars 25g/yr.  That wouldnt even be Armia playing on the top line with the top scorer either. 

 

Even paying Armia $3mil/year wouldnt be resigning him based on optimistic potential.  It would be giving him what he is currently known to at least be worth, with hope that he becomes more, which he has shown every year.  Also, it would be a movable contract if Habs need to ditch him after 2-3 years. 

 

 

On pace doesn’t mean he will finish at that pace. Based on Poehling’s first NHL game - which was the last game of the season - he was on pace for scoring 246 goals in a full 82 game season and had a 100% success rate in shootouts. Players get hit and cold. Some nights Benoit Brunet looked like like he was a 30 goal scorer, most night he looked like a marginal NHL player.

[hab29RETIRED]

20 hours ago, DON said:

Recently had back to back 20+ goal seasons, Habs leading scorer (granted; that is always a low bar) and 120pts over those recent 2 years. Armia 53pts over last 2 years.

 

But, many also bitched endlessly about Pacioretty recently doing anything, every year..."He does nothing when not scoring and hasnt scored in 15games, trade him for a bag of pucks!"

Like  a VP candidate said to Adam Quayle once “I knew JFK, and you sir are no JFK”. Tatar is not even close to Maxpac.

 

i wouldn’t bother signing Tatar unless it’s for a substantial reduction.  Ditto for Armia (albeit a smaller reduction for Armia than Tatar).

[xXx..CK..xXx]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Like  a VP candidate said to Adam Quayle once “I knew JFK, and you sir are no JFK”. Tatar is not even close to Maxpac.

 

i wouldn’t bother signing Tatar unless it’s for a substantial reduction.  Ditto for Armia (albeit a smaller reduction for Armia than Tatar).

I’m Pacioretty’s biggest supporter on here and think you are right. Pacioretty is Elite. His goal scoring and shot are what make me miss him.

 

With that being said, Pacioretty’s highest point total as a Hab was 67 points. Easy to remember, because it’s just like the number on his jersey. 
 

Last year, Tatar had 61 points as a Hab, and only played 68 games. Pacioretty had some  full calendar seasons. Tatar was headed towards a 73-74 point season. 
 

Since Tatar’s arrival to the Habs, only Toffoli has averaged more points per game over that entire time span. 
 

Since becoming a Hab, Tatar has scored 0.77 points per game. Since joining the Golden Knights, Pacioretty has 0.82 points per game.

 

Now, none of this has any relation to contract talks, but personally I am not afraid to pay Tomas Tatar whatever corresponds to his market value. He’s welcome here.

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

I’m Pacioretty’s biggest supporter on here and think you are right. Pacioretty is Elite. His goal scoring and shot are what make me miss him.

 

With that being said, Pacioretty’s highest point total as a Hab was 67 points. Easy to remember, because it’s just like the number on his jersey. 
 

Last year, Tatar had 61 points as a Hab, and only played 68 games. Pacioretty had some  full calendar seasons. Tatar was headed towards a 73-74 point season. 
 

Since Tatar’s arrival to the Habs, only Toffoli has averaged more points per game over that entire time span. 
 

Since becoming a Hab, Tatar has scored 0.77 points per game. Since joining the Golden Knights, Pacioretty has 0.82 points per game.

 

Now, none of this has any relation to contract talks, but personally I am not afraid to pay Tomas Tatar whatever corresponds to his market value. He’s welcome here.

 

I think that Toffoli has replaced Tatar as the top point producer LW with the Habs. He is playing like Tatar was playing in his firsts seasons with the Habs.

With Drouin's resurgence, Tatar may be pushed down to third on the totem pole

 

But those three LWs are very good. I would like to bring them all back (re-sigh Tatar) although I believe Tatar will return for salary cap reasons

[hab29RETIRED]

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I think that Toffoli has replaced Tatar as the top point producer LW with the Habs. He is playing like Tatar was playing in his firsts seasons with the Habs.

With Drouin's resurgence, Tatar may be pushed down to third on the totem pole

 

But those three LWs are very good. I would like to bring them all back (re-sigh Tatar) although I believe Tatar will return for salary cap reasons

Agreed. He is much further down the depth chart. I don’t see how we afford to pay him anywhere near what he is getting or even close to Taffoli when we are spending $13.5m on goaltending and over $14m on two dmen (of the two, only Petry oa coming even close to earning his salary). We can’t spend that much more on wing, when we clearly need to a serious upgrade on defence. Edmondson and Chariot are also getting $7m between them, when both are better suited two new bottom pairing dmen.

 

Tatar will probably get between $3.5m-$4.5m as a UFA. I don’t think we can afford that and upgrade the D.  I also think we can afford to pay Danault more than he is getting  right now. 
 

One deal that I wonder Nashville would be interested in is that helps us cap wise this year and the future is Ekholm for a Weber, a prospect and a pick.   They avoid future cap recapture on Weber and may see the return of Weber as a stabilizing factor for next year. We get a puck mover and much needed cap space to add an additional Dman.  Not sure if there would even be I interest by nashville to get Weber back and even if there was there is the big issue of a huge hole on the D during the 14 day quarantine period. 
 

if it wasn’t for the 14 day quarantine, I wonder if there would be a possibility of a larger move with Nashville that would help not team’s for next year.

 

The D was my big concern coming in, and I’ve seen enough of the the crap on defence that I think that other then Romanov and Petry, you need to blow it up.

 

we need to rebuild the D, get a legit centre until KK and Suzuki show they are ready and clear some bad contracts for the future.

[alfredoh2009]

23 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Agreed. He is much further down the depth chart. I don’t see how we afford to pay him anywhere near what he is getting or even close to Taffoli when we are spending $13.5m on goaltending and over $14m on two dmen (of the two, only Petry oa coming even close to earning his salary). We can’t spend that much more on wing, when we clearly need to a serious upgrade on defence. Edmondson and Chariot are also getting $7m between them, when both are better suited two new bottom pairing dmen.

 

Tatar will probably get between $3.5m-$4.5m as a UFA. I don’t think we can afford that and upgrade the D.  I also think we can afford to pay Danault more than he is getting  right now. 
 

One deal that I wonder Nashville would be interested in is that helps us cap wise this year and the future is Ekholm for a Weber, a prospect and a pick.   They avoid future cap recapture on Weber and may see the return of Weber as a stabilizing factor for next year. We get a puck mover and much needed cap space to add an additional Dman.  Not sure if there would even be I interest by nashville to get Weber back and even if there was there is the big issue of a huge hole on the D during the 14 day quarantine period. 
 

if it wasn’t for the 14 day quarantine, I wonder if there would be a possibility of a larger move with Nashville that would help not team’s for next year.

 

The D was my big concern coming in, and I’ve seen enough of the the crap on defence that I think that other then Romanov and Petry, you need to blow it up.

 

we need to rebuild the D, get a legit centre until KK and Suzuki show they are ready and clear some bad contracts for the future.

 

there are not that many options from other clubs to upgrade the Ds via a trade.

 

Top 4 LDs in teams out of playoff contention:

ANA: Fowler, Lindholm (out for 6 weeks) ,

DAL: Lindell

MIN: Brodin, Suter (don't know if they can stay in playoff race)

NSH: Ekholm

 

Like MB was saying, players that fit the needs are too expensive and there is no cap space for them, especially when Chiarot comes back.

 

3rd pairing Ds like Oleksiak in DAL or Jokiharju in BUF do not help the Habs much.

 

 

[dlbalr]

51 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

One deal that I wonder Nashville would be interested in is that helps us cap wise this year and the future is Ekholm for a Weber, a prospect and a pick.   They avoid future cap recapture on Weber and may see the return of Weber as a stabilizing factor for next year. We get a puck mover and much needed cap space to add an additional Dman.  Not sure if there would even be I interest by nashville to get Weber back and even if there was there is the big issue of a huge hole on the D during the 14 day quarantine period.

 

The asking price on Ekholm right now is another Muzzin trade - a first-round pick plus two prospects, one of which is an above-average one.  (And they will get that or they won't move him.)  Keeping that in mind with the current value that many including you perceive Weber's contract to have (which is a negative-value contract), there's no possible way that Nashville accepts that framework. 

 

I get the recapture element but teams don't do those deals two years in advance of when they need to be done.  Go back in history as to when those types of trades were made (Datsyuk, Hossa, Clarkson back to Toronto from Vegas), they were done in the offseason leading to the year it needed to happen.  (I'm lumping LTIR guys in since there isn't a recapture circumvention trade to compare to.)  If it were to ever come to Montreal and Nashville needing to do a Weber trade to avoid recapture, it'd be in the summer leading into his 'retirement'.  Until then, there is no point whatsoever for the Predators to consider reacquiring him.

[GHT120]

37 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

there are not that many options from other clubs to upgrade the Ds via a trade.

 

Top 4 LDs in teams out of playoff contention:

ANA: Fowler, Lindholm (out for 6 weeks) ,

DAL: Lindell

MIN: Brodin, Suter (don't know if they can stay in playoff race)

NSH: Ekholm

 

Like MB was saying, players that fit the needs are too expensive and there is no cap space for them, especially when Chiarot comes back.

 

3rd pairing Ds like Oleksiak in DAL or Jokiharju in BUF do not help the Habs much.

 

 

I agree, any useful player will be expensive in terms of trade assets ... but one would have to assume that Chiarot is leaving in any deal, essentially for cap purposes ... obviously picks/prospects needed to get any trade done ... Chiarot as the NHL player leaving also in some ways minimizes the impact of the 14-day quarantine as the Habs are already missing him ... not that I actually expect anything to happen