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2021 NHL Playoffs


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11 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

As far as Vegas, I don’t think their window is closing. They have a mix of aging guys, guys in their prime and as still have prospects in the pipeline.  Only position that you don’t know how long it will hold up is coincidentally goaltending.  I don’t have a heck of a last I’d faith in Lehner.  Maybe he is good for the term of his contract, but he has never been consistent.

 

It's a money thing.  They're going to lose Martinez and Janmark for cap reasons and perhaps another player as a cap casualty so they can potentially avoid having to play three skaters short at times to stay cap compliant.  This is probably their best shot at a title for now until contracts like Fleury's come off the books.

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5 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

It's a money thing.  They're going to lose Martinez and Janmark for cap reasons and perhaps another player as a cap casualty so they can potentially avoid having to play three skaters short at times to stay cap compliant.  This is probably their best shot at a title for now until contracts like Fleury's come off the books.

Fleury could well be of interest to Seattle (unless he has a NMC that CapFriendly doesn't show) ... either as their first-year goalie or as trade bait with salary retention.

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4 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Fleury could well be of interest to Seattle (unless he has a NMC that CapFriendly doesn't show) ... either as their first-year goalie or as trade bait with salary retention.

 

Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft.

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17 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft.

 

Seriously? That's pretty ridiculous. It was one thing to exempt other expansion teams when they were adding a teams in back-to-back years, but four years later? That seems overly lenient.

 

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

It's a money thing.  They're going to lose Martinez and Janmark for cap reasons and perhaps another player as a cap casualty so they can potentially avoid having to play three skaters short at times to stay cap compliant.  This is probably their best shot at a title for now until contracts like Fleury's come off the books.

Wasn’t the scuttlebut that Fleury may be going back to the Pens?

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft.

D'OH  ...  memory fails ... again ... but the Kraken still might be interested ... 

 

17 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Wasn’t the scuttlebut that Fleury may be going back to the Pens?

... for one possible example, as a middleman in a deal sending Fleury to the Pens

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49 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

Seriously? That's pretty ridiculous. It was one thing to exempt other expansion teams when they were adding a teams in back-to-back years, but four years later? That seems overly lenient.

 

 

They are also exempt from receiving any portion of the Seattle expansion fee.

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26 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Wasn’t the scuttlebut that Fleury may be going back to the Pens?

 

It's out there but how is Pittsburgh affording it?  They'd need to send Jarry the other way and have Vegas eat half of Fleury's contract to make it cap-neutral for both sides but that still puts Vegas in some cap difficulty for next year. 

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Not sure if any are better or worse but;

Referees 

Francis Charron, Gord Dwyer, Eric Furlatt, Chris Lee, Wes McCauley, Dan O’Rourke, Francois St. Laurent, Kelly Sutherland

Out from Round 2:  Jean Hebert,  Brad Meier, Brian Pochmara, Kevin Pollock

 

Linesmen

David Brisebois, Scott Cherrey, Michel Cormier, Ryan Gibbons, Kiel Murchison, Jonny Murray, Bryan Pancich, Andrew Smith

Out from Round 2: Devin Berg, Steve Barton, Matt MacPherson, Mark Shewchyk  

 

Standby Officials: Referee Brian Pochmara, Linesman Devin Berg

First-Timers: Linesmen Andrew Smith is making his first trip to the Conference Finals.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Not sure if any are better or worse but;

Referees 

Francis Charron, Gord Dwyer, Eric Furlatt, Chris Lee, Wes McCauley, Dan O’Rourke, Francois St. Laurent, Kelly Sutherland

Out from Round 2:  Jean Hebert,  Brad Meier, Brian Pochmara, Kevin Pollock

 

Linesmen

David Brisebois, Scott Cherrey, Michel Cormier, Ryan Gibbons, Kiel Murchison, Jonny Murray, Bryan Pancich, Andrew Smith

Out from Round 2: Devin Berg, Steve Barton, Matt MacPherson, Mark Shewchyk  

 

Standby Officials: Referee Brian Pochmara, Linesman Devin Berg

First-Timers: Linesmen Andrew Smith is making his first trip to the Conference Finals.

How is Chris Lee not out?????🤮

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On 6/5/2021 at 2:27 PM, Commandant said:

I think we need to look at percentage of cap. 

 

Of course no 10 million players won rounds in 2007 cause the cap was much lower.  So 10 million is about 1/8th of the cap... were teams on a 56 million cap winning with 7 million players?  Were teams on the 49 million cap, winning with players just over 6?

So, I spent some time analyzing this, for players who were paid at least 10% of cap. From 2012 to 2021, 10 years of data will be much more reliable. And looking at the results of teams rather than individual players.

 

Overall, 53% of all teams made the playoffs (30 teams for the first six years, then 31). Teams by the number of top-paid players:

  • 58% with one+ player made it
  • 66% with two+ players made it
  • 89% with three+ players made it
  • 100% with four players made it

So, adding high-paid star power does help make the playoffs.

 

In the first round, the winning percentage (sample size of 80 series):

  • 50% for all teams
  • 52% for one+
  • 56% for two+
  • 56% for three+
  • 17% for four (only the 2014 Rangers made it to second round)

Not as big an advantage, to be sure, but still better than 50%.

 

In the second round (sample size of 40 series):

  • 50% for all teams
  • 47% for one+
  • 50% for two+
  • 56% for three+
  • 100% for four (yeah, sample size of one, the Rangers made it to the finals)

It's still clustered around 50%. But there really doesn't seem to be any clear advantage to stacking your team with (what is currently) $8M/year players. On the other hand, it's not as big a disaster as was insinuated by the original tweet, either.

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

How is Chris Lee not out?????🤮

Dunno, bar is pretty frickin low for all of them, it seems. Is he really any "worse" than what they had so far?

And Lee aint one of the 4 at todays game...so guess we will see how he does tomorrow, or game after no doubt.

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36 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

So, I spent some time analyzing this, for players who were paid at least 10% of cap. From 2012 to 2021, 10 years of data will be much more reliable. And looking at the results of teams rather than individual players.

 

Overall, 53% of all teams made the playoffs (30 teams for the first six years, then 31). Teams by the number of top-paid players:

  • 58% with one+ player made it
  • 66% with two+ players made it
  • 89% with three+ players made it
  • 100% with four players made it

So, adding high-paid star power does help make the playoffs.

 

In the first round, the winning percentage (sample size of 80 series):

  • 50% for all teams
  • 52% for one+
  • 56% for two+
  • 56% for three+
  • 17% for four (only the 2014 Rangers made it to second round)

Not as big an advantage, to be sure, but still better than 50%.

 

In the second round (sample size of 40 series):

  • 50% for all teams
  • 47% for one+
  • 50% for two+
  • 56% for three+
  • 100% for four (yeah, sample size of one, the Rangers made it to the finals)

It's still clustered around 50%. But there really doesn't seem to be any clear advantage to stacking your team with (what is currently) $8M/year players. On the other hand, it's not as big a disaster as was insinuated by the original tweet, either.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the analysis, really appreciate it

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6 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

So you think they're going to fix the salary cap for the playoffs in the next CBA after seeing Tampa 18mil over the cap? 

 

On the one hand, it's exceedingly rare that a player with Kucherov's salary is going to be out for an entire regular season, only to return for the playoffs. On the other hand, they absolutely need to address the fact that dead money contracts like Gaborik and Nilsson are valuable assets that can be used to take advantage of the LTIR rules.

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30 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

So you think they're going to fix the salary cap for the playoffs in the next CBA after seeing Tampa 18mil over the cap? 

 

By the time the CBA is up, hardly anyone will remember this even happened.

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5 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

By the time the CBA is up, hardly anyone will remember this even happened.

If Tampa doesn't win the cup i can see it but if they do I'm sure other teams will complain about it. 

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7.5 million of that 18 million is guys who never played for the team and were just LTIR, so the 18 million is very deceiving. 

 

Also Chicago did the same thing in the past with Patrick Kane. 

 

And its not like Kucherov wasn't hurt, they played the entire season without their best player due to having surgery.  He didn't just do this to circumvent the cap. 

 

Its all in the rules... so meh.

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11 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Its all in the rules... so meh.

The rules shouldnt be changed because it currently is in the rules?:crazy:

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Nice to see Isles break the ice in today's game, a big upset in both series would be great to see.

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3 minutes ago, DON said:

The rules shouldnt be changed because it currently is in the rules?:crazy:

 

I'm not upset at Tampa using the rules for the purpose they were intended. If a player has a Long Term injury, you are able to replace him.

 

I mean the Habs made the same use of LTIR down the stretch here.

I don't have a problem with the LTIR rules.

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12 minutes ago, Commandant said:

... I don't have a problem with the LTIR rules.

I don't have a problem with TBL following the literal rule as written ... but I ma not certain what they did fell within the spirit of what was intended ... not in that Kucherov was not injured or that he needed most of the season to recover ... it just seems unlikely that he was not physically able to play in the last game of the season but six days later he was able to play 19:20 and score 2 goals and 1 assist ... I have no doubt that the TBL have medical records that support Kucherov's progress ... but that is from TBL, or at least TBL sanctioned, doctors ... I would like two tweaks to the rules ... for anything longer than six weeks the player must be examined every two weeks by a league appointed, independent physician and certified unfit to play ... and ... players must play at least 8 games (10% of a normal season) in order to be eligible for the playoffs ... just my opinion.

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2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I don't have a problem with TBL following the literal rule as written ... but I ma not certain what they did fell within the spirit of what was intended ... not in that 

Kucherov was not injured or that he needed most of the season to recover ... it just seems unlikely that he was not physically able to play until six days after he season ended ... I have no doubt that the TBL have medical records that support 

Kucherov's progress ... but that is from TBL, or at least TBL sanctioned, doctors ... I would like two tweaks to the rules ... for anything longer than six weeks the player must be examined every two weeks by a league appointed, independent physician ... and ... players must play at least 8 games (10% of a normal season) in order to be eligible for the playoffs ... just my opinion.

 

What if a team runs out of players who played 8 games due to injuries. 

Some teams might only use 8 defencemen in a season.  What if they are down to 5 in the playoffs due to injury?

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

What if a team runs out of players who played 8 games due to injuries. 

Some teams might only use 8 defencemen in a season.  What if they are down to 5 in the playoffs due to injury?

Unlikely ... but fair point ... players who have played at least one game could then be added and if the teams' total drops below 18&2 with no available "NHLers" then players with no NHL games that season could be added ... all subject to the existing "acquired by the trade deadline" requirement.

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