What's next for the Habs?

[DON]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

At least one person knew.

Hughes was ranked 5-10 by 99% of folks it seems. No one had him at 3, some at 4.

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, DON said:

Hughes was ranked 5-10 by 99% of folks it seems. No one had him at 3, some at 4.

 

I had him at 3 and argued for him many times on this board.

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2018-nhl-entry-draft-headquarters/

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

No one had KK at #3 either.

 

Commandant was right all along on this - he wanted Hughes, argued for him, and has been proven correct.

[GHT120]

14 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I had him at 3 and argued for him many times on this board.

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2018-nhl-entry-draft-headquarters/

And its not like there wasn't also a need for a PMLHD ... but as we can now see from the Chiarot and Edmundson signings, Hughes didn't fit the mold for the defence MB wanted to build.

[tomh009]

38 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

And its not like there wasn't also a need for a PMLHD ... but as we can now see from the Chiarot and Edmundson signings, Hughes didn't fit the mold for the defence MB wanted to build.

At the time, the gaping hole was at centre more than anywhere else.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

17 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

At the time, the gaping hole was at centre more than anywhere else.

 

True, drafting 18 year olds is not an exact science. Many here thought they should have taken Brady Tkachuk but I don't know if anyone had him in the top 3, Commandant had him at #11, nobody predicted Barrett Hayton would go number 5. Always easy to look back.  KK has certainly been inconsistent but I still think he is going to be a good NHL player,  6 goals in 14 playoff games is actually pretty impressive, not a large sample size but maybe he will turn into one of those players that plays better in the big games.  Hopefully after tonight it will be 8 goals in 15 playoff games. 

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

At the time, the gaping hole was at centre more than anywhere else.

 

I argued and continue to.say the need at LH PMD was just as big.

[DON]

18 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

I had him at 3 and argued for him many times on this board.

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2018-nhl-entry-draft-headquarters/

why i put 99%, i knew that obviously. Just saying, just about everyone else didnt have him quite as high...and should have.

[tomh009]

43 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I argued and continue to.say the need at LH PMD was just as big.

Not saying you were (or are) wrong. But the Habs' management team (led by Bergevin) were focused on the gap at centre. And that certainly was a gap, with no strong prospects in the pipeline.

[Fanpuck33]

On 5/28/2021 at 1:07 PM, BCHabnut said:

I would like to see a breakdown of impact players drafted by teams. Timmins is great at drafting the Carr andrighetto dime a dozen players. Yes, his draft record includes a lot of nhl games played, but how many were actually good? I'm standing by my assessment.  He sucks

 

2002: One good NHLer in Chris Higgins

2003: Four good NHLers in Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O'Byrne, and Jaroslav Halak.

2004: Three good NHLers in Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Emelin, and Mark Streit. Kyle Chipchura probably more of a fringe NHLer.

2005: First impact player in Price. Good NHLers in Guillaume Latendresse, Matt D'Agostini, and Sergei Kostitsyn.

2006: Pretty much a complete loss.

2007: Three impact players in McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban. Another good NHLer in Yannick Weber.

2008: A complete loss

2009: A complete loss

2010: An impact player in Brendan Gallagher

2011: One solid NHLer in Nathan Beaullieu.

2012: One good NHLer in Alex Galchenyuk.

2013: One decent NHLer in Arturii Lehkonen. Two fringe NHLers in Scene Adgrigehtto and Jacob De La Rose.

2014: One solid NHLer in Jake Evans.

2015: One fringe NHLer in Noah Juulsen.

2016: One really good NHLer in Mikhail Sergachev (is he an impact player at this point?), and one decent NHLer in Victor Mete.

2017: Looking like another total loss. Maybe a fringe NHLer in Ryan Poehling.

2018: Too early to tell. KK is a solid NHLer, with still potential to be impact. Also too early to say what Alexander Romanov will be long term.

2019: Really hoping Cole Caufield maintains his trajectory.

2020: Too early to even have a guess.

 

So in 18 years, they've drafted 6 impact players. Two were traded away before they became impact players (could we have developed them?) and two others were traded away another in his prime. Gallagher the only impact skater they've held onto, and he is almost always so banged up by the playoffs that he can't make an impact. 

 

An impact player every three years (on average) is not bad at face value.  Three of those being in one amazing draft in Columbus kind of skews that, though. Plenty of NHL talent drafted over the years, but the numerous years of total losses is not a good look for someone who may not be known for picking up on elite talent, but is at least known for having an eye for solid NHL talent. Of course, management decisions obviously skews his record. Where did he really have guys like McCarron and Tinordi ranked? Was he asked to simply rank the best players over 6'3" or did he really have those guys highly ranked?

[revvvrob]

2017 still may produce Primeau and Brook

 

2006 Ryan White wasn’t a zero

 

but I didn’t spot any others that made NHL contributions. 
 

next is to compare that to others’ drafts and see if his numbers are good, mediocre or bad - and then filter in if the misses were his fault or the fault of the GM at the time. 

[Commandant]

The average NHL team gets 1.8 players per draft who play 200 NHL games.

 

Of course this doesnt say how many of those muddel their way to that as 4th liners and how many are impact players.

[alfredoh2009]

I'll answer in-line:

 

2 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

2002: One good NHLer in Chris Higgins

2003: Four good NHLers in Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O'Byrne, and Jaroslav Halak.

-> agree

2004: Three good NHLers in Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Emelin, and Mark Streit. Kyle Chipchura probably more of a fringe NHLer.

-> agree

2005: First impact player in Price. Good NHLers in Guillaume Latendresse, Matt D'Agostini, and Sergei Kostitsyn.

-> agree

2006: Pretty much a complete loss.

-> agree, but White was a good 4th liner with speed; valuable in his role at the time

2007: Three impact players in McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban. Another good NHLer in Yannick Weber.

-> agree

2008: A complete loss

-> agree

2009: A complete loss

-> agree, Leblanc messed up but Dumont was a border-line player that played in the NHL

2010: An impact player in Brendan Gallagher

-> agree, Pierre Gauthier traded theis 2nd and 3rd round picks. Hard to hit a homerun with the 22nd overall, hit one nonetheless with Gallagher

2011: One solid NHLer in Nathan Beaullieu.

-> agree, Pierre Gauthier traded their two 2nds and their 3rd pick. 50/50 chance to hit a homerun with the 17th overall. Beaulieu is still playing

2012: One good NHLer in Alex Galchenyuk.

-> agree

2013: One decent NHLer in Arturii Lehkonen. Two fringe NHLers in Scene Adgrigehtto and Jacob De La Rose.

-> agree. All teh picks were late in tehir rounds, they were picking 25th and despite that had three NHLers

2014: One solid NHLer in Jake Evans.

-> agree. But picking 26th andMB traded their 2nd. Hard to hit a homerun but despite that they did with Evans

2015: One fringe NHLer in Noah Juulsen.

-> agree. THhy almost hit a homerung with Juulsen, but it hit the outfield pole to go foul They traded their 2nd and 4th round picks for Petry (what a steel)

2016: One really good NHLer in Mikhail Sergachev (is he an impact player at this point?), and one decent NHLer in Victor Mete.

-> agree. Despite trading away two 2nd and a 3rd draft pick, they still drafted two NHLers. That is an impressive outcome

2017: Looking like another total loss. Maybe a fringe NHLer in Ryan Poehling.

-> I strongly disagree. Primeau is a strong prospect and both Poehling and Fleury are coming along fine. @Commandant is really high on Brook and he knows his sh#!!t

2018: Too early to tell. KK is a solid NHLer, with still potential to be impact. Also too early to say what Alexander Romanov will be long term.

-> I strongly disagree.  You forget Ylonen who is just solid and progressing well and Harris

2019: Really hoping Cole Caufield maintains his trajectory.

2020: Too early to even have a guess.

-> I strongly disagree.  You forget Norlinder and to a lesser degree Stuble and Fairbrother

 

So in 18 years, they've drafted 6 impact players. Two were traded away before they became impact players (could we have developed them?) and two others were traded away another in his prime. Gallagher the only impact skater they've held onto, and he is almost always so banged up by the playoffs that he can't make an impact. 

 

An impact player every three years (on average) is not bad at face value.  Three of those being in one amazing draft in Columbus kind of skews that, though. Plenty of NHL talent drafted over the years, but the numerous years of total losses is not a good look for someone who may not be known for picking up on elite talent, but is at least known for having an eye for solid NHL talent. Of course, management decisions obviously skews his record. Where did he really have guys like McCarron and Tinordi ranked? Was he asked to simply rank the best players over 6'3" or did he really have those guys highly ranked?

[tomh009]

2 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

So in 18 years, they've drafted 6 impact players.

So, why did you choose 2002 as the starting year? Timmins has only been in charge since 2014.

[Trizzak]

13 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

So, why did you choose 2002 as the starting year? Timmins has only been in charge since 2014.

Timmins has been running the Habs scouting since 2002. He might have gotten a title change in 2014, but he has been head scout since 2002.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

It’s a moot point, gentlemen. Getting to Game 7 almost certainly means that everyone’s job is safe. For better or worse.

[BCHabnut]

3 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

2002: One good NHLer in Chris Higgins

2003: Four good NHLers in Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O'Byrne, and Jaroslav Halak.

2004: Three good NHLers in Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Emelin, and Mark Streit. Kyle Chipchura probably more of a fringe NHLer.

2005: First impact player in Price. Good NHLers in Guillaume Latendresse, Matt D'Agostini, and Sergei Kostitsyn.

2006: Pretty much a complete loss.

2007: Three impact players in McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban. Another good NHLer in Yannick Weber.

2008: A complete loss

2009: A complete loss

2010: An impact player in Brendan Gallagher

2011: One solid NHLer in Nathan Beaullieu.

2012: One good NHLer in Alex Galchenyuk.

2013: One decent NHLer in Arturii Lehkonen. Two fringe NHLers in Scene Adgrigehtto and Jacob De La Rose.

2014: One solid NHLer in Jake Evans.

2015: One fringe NHLer in Noah Juulsen.

2016: One really good NHLer in Mikhail Sergachev (is he an impact player at this point?), and one decent NHLer in Victor Mete.

2017: Looking like another total loss. Maybe a fringe NHLer in Ryan Poehling.

2018: Too early to tell. KK is a solid NHLer, with still potential to be impact. Also too early to say what Alexander Romanov will be long term.

2019: Really hoping Cole Caufield maintains his trajectory.

2020: Too early to even have a guess.

 

So in 18 years, they've drafted 6 impact players. Two were traded away before they became impact players (could we have developed them?) and two others were traded away another in his prime. Gallagher the only impact skater they've held onto, and he is almost always so banged up by the playoffs that he can't make an impact. 

 

An impact player every three years (on average) is not bad at face value.  Three of those being in one amazing draft in Columbus kind of skews that, though. Plenty of NHL talent drafted over the years, but the numerous years of total losses is not a good look for someone who may not be known for picking up on elite talent, but is at least known for having an eye for solid NHL talent. Of course, management decisions obviously skews his record. Where did he really have guys like McCarron and Tinordi ranked? Was he asked to simply rank the best players over 6'3" or did he really have those guys highly ranked?

That is a pretty great breakdown.  Holy crap.

[hab29RETIRED]

10 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It’s a moot point, gentlemen. Getting to Game 7 almost certainly means that everyone’s job is safe. For better or worse.

Probably right. Feels great right now - especially if we can pull off the upset! 

 

There are three teams I absolutely hate to lose to. Boston, Toronto, and Calgary, so hoping to stick it to TSN, Sportsnet, and the rest of the Leaf centric media.  
 

having said that I absolutely do not want to see the same top 4 D, or even the current top two pairings next year.  We need a drastic change on D. I can live with more growing pains with Suzuki, and KK, but I have zero interest in seeing anything close to the same D next year.

[BCHabnut]

17 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It’s a moot point, gentlemen. Getting to Game 7 almost certainly means that everyone’s job is safe. For better or worse.

I hope that two things are observed during this fight to game seven. Ducharme and Burrows are not the future of the Habs. Weber needs to go be the first captain of the Seattle Kraken. If MB and Timmins stay, I Really hope that those two things happen.

[hab29RETIRED]

13 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

That is a pretty great breakdown.  Holy crap.

I wouldn’t call it a great breakdown - kind of depressing 🤭. Good analysis 😁but sorry group of prospects. I do think the categorization of players like O’Byrne is overly generous (I’d call him more a fringe NHL player, along with a few others.  I also don’t like the whole 1.8 players that play a minimum number of NHL games a good measure. Again, looking at from the time Cheveldayoff started in Winnipeg, and the MN/Timmins combo, or looking at Tampa, or Boston, or other yams, how do we stack up in terms of actual quality NHL players vs quantity is a better measure.

 

I see the following good to elite  players picked since Timmins took over:

1. Price

2. maxpac

3.McDonough 

4. Subban

5. Gallagher 

6. Sergechev (under MB - traded)

7. KK (under MB - jury still out)

8. Caufield (under MB - jury still out - but potential to be a grand slam pick)

 

That doesn’t se nearly enough under either when looking at Timmins on his own, or Timmins+MB combo . I think the duo probably did a better job developing their guns than developing elite talent.

[hab29RETIRED]

10 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

I hope that two things are observed during this fight to game seven. Ducharme and Burrows are not the future of the Habs. Weber needs to go be the first captain of the Seattle Kraken. If MB and Timmins stay, I Really hope that those two things happen.

100% agree.

[BCHabnut]

1 minute ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I wouldn’t call it a great breakdown. Good analysis- but sorry group of prospects. I do think the categorization of players like O’Byrne is overly generous (I’d call him more a fringe NHL player, along with a few others.  I also don’t like the whole 1.8 players that play a minimum number of NHL games a good measure. Again, looking at from the time Cheveldayoff started in Winnipeg, and the MN/Timmins combo, or looking at Tampa, or Boston, or other yams, how do we stack up in terms of actual quality NHL players vs quantity is a better measure.

 

I see the following good to elite  players picked since Timmins took over:

1. Price

2. maxpac

3.McDonough 

4. Subban

5. Gallagher 

6. Sergechev (under MB - traded)

7. KK (under MB - jury still out)

8. Caufield (under MB - jury still out - but potential to be a grand slam pick)

 

That doesn’t se nearly enough under either when looking at Timmins on his own, or Timmins+MB combo . I think the duo probably did a better job developing their guns than developing elite talent.

Isn't that pretty much exactly what he said, except he showed the other NHLers? 

[hab29RETIRED]

Just now, BCHabnut said:

Isn't that pretty much exactly what he said, except he showed the other NHLers? 

I don’t consider a guy like O’Byrne a good NHLer - more of a fringe NHLer. - unless I’m interpreting it wrong.

[BCHabnut]

8 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I don’t consider a guy like O’Byrne a good NHLer - more of a fringe NHLer. - unless I’m interpreting it wrong.

Obyrne is definitely a fringe player. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

12 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I don’t consider a guy like O’Byrne a good NHLer - more of a fringe NHLer. - unless I’m interpreting it wrong.

 

Ryan O'Byrne??  This analysis is really getting deep.  I would also consider him a fringe/3rd pairing guy. Maybe we can start a Ryan O'Byrne thread??   LOL